Brexit discussion thread II

blanch152 wrote: »

The silence on UK trade deals means that they are heading for a cliff. The third quarter economic results from the UK will be interesting.

I think the silence on UK trade deals is at least partly a reflection of the fact that no-one wants to get very far in negotiations with the UK until they know how the UK will stand with respect to Europe. The more integrated the UK is with EU markets, the more attractive the UK is a trading partner (and, of course, as a location for inward investment). So it will be v. difficult for UK to conclude a deal with any third country before it concludes its deals with the EU.

blanch152 wrote: »

In a hard Brexit, Ireland will be damaged, but as many others have said, not as much as the UK.

The EU will want to ensure that they don't lose Ireland as well, so considerable assistance both financial (costs of border, new infrastructure for direct trading with the Continent etc.) and non-financial (Medicines Agency, allow our low-cost corporate tax regime to continue).

The key to Ireland surviving a hard Brexit is to be flexible. Some domestic industries and services will be damaged - food exports, UK multiples etc. - but there will be oppportunities in financial services and other areas which we will have to move fast to take advantage of. Hopefully, it will just be a short-term shock but a long-term benefit.

The main immediate issue for Ireland with a no-deal Brexit is the sea ports and particularly land border :

• UK will have to rely on GATT/WTO rules for facilitating trade.
• Upon leaving the EU and becoming a 'third country', the EU is LEGALLY OBLIGED to impose on them the same tariffs it does other WTO members.
• 'other WTO members' refers to those with whom the EU does not have Free Trade Agreements.
• WE have NO facilities to do this at the border neither does UK.
• Tariffs are an issue but the real economic minefield that lies behind the WTO door is the web of non-tariff barriers.
• As an EU member the UK enjoys a harmonised system of regulation. The benefit of this is the removal of technical barriers to trade. Outside the EU the UK must PROVE it conforms to standards
• This is where customs cooperation comes in (which has nothing whatsoever to do with the Customs Union).
• Where there exists large amounts of trade between two trading partners (like EU+China), MRAs or equivalents built into FTAs are useful. MRAs are Mutual Recognition Agreements. MRAs promote trade facilitation by helping to assess conformity to standards. By leaving EU negotiations, we will have to rely on WTO mechanisms, such as the TBT and SPS Agreements.
• Unlike the EEA, these provisions aren't effective. No country trades with the EU solely using such terms.
• There will be clashes at external borders, whereby UK/EU will not be able to assess whether standards have been complied with.
• This will cause chaos. We will see delays at shipping ports, lorry queues stretching miles, wasted/devalued cargo.
• NTBs are more important than tariffs because their externalities cause far more profound (and often unseen) economic problems.
• Goods will not reach their destinations. Some may make it but scraping their sell-by or use-by dates. In other words: pandemonium.
• As Ireland's main export to the UK is agri-business this hits us very hard. Decimates that industry and others.
• This assumes that there is adequate infrastructure to begin with. Ports will be overwhelmed. But consider the case of the Irish border where NO INFRASTRUCTURE WHATSOEVER exists.
• All trade outside the black market between north and south would stop

The biggest way the EU can help us is by a huge infrastructure grant and aid to build the border infrastructure necessary before March 2019.
Hammond declared on the BBC that the UK is preparing for a no-deal Brexit.
These preparations should involve customs infrastructure on their side of the border. One to watch.

List stolen/adapted from here:

How many issues have we heard the UK say somethings similar ? Information , Banking and Security i believe so far.

Britain will on Tuesday offer to contribute military assets to European Union operations, co-operate on sanctions and agree joint positions on foreign policy as part of a new security partnership after Brexit.
In its latest Brexit position paper, Theresa May’s government will call for a pooling of British and EU assets and capabilities in a security partnership “deeper than any other third country and that reflects our shared intere

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/uk/britain-seeks-stronger-security-partnership-with-eu-after-brexit-1.3217337

Honestly what is the point in leaving if you're just going to tow the EU line?

I'm sure they have hired some people and are sounding countries out. Doubt it's going too well however.

Well fwiw, I'm a well educated man who.is fortunate enough to have fairly sought after experience. My wife is similar. I have a share in a successful and expanding business, and pay a lot of tax in the UK.
It is now odds on that we are selling up and emigrating.
I don't want my kids brought up in a country with this "leadership"
I may or may not be typical, but we are most likely getting out.

murphaph wrote: »

I'm sure they have hired some people and are sounding countries out. Doubt it's going too well however.

They have too, a New Zealander called Crawford Falconer!!

Falconer, was a member of a leave campaign think tank, the Legatum Institute. The Legatum Institute is linked with numerous politicians on the tory right, it is also linked with Legatum an investment firm ran by a New Zealand billionaire. From their own website they are a disaster/vulture fund. "In a crisis, risk is often mispriced. Patient capital enables us to look for high-quality companies that are trading at distressed levels, often for reasons outside of their control. We are also willing to invest in distressed situations where our engagement can help the company address the issues holding it back, thereby unlocking its full potential and value for its shareholders."

Legatum, according to their own publications, believe that no unique solutions to the Northern Ireland border should be proposed unless the UK gains the same benefits (using NI as a bargaining chip). And that other EU and world countries will come begging for trade deals.

You would hope Falconer does not hold these views too. Presumably you would say Falconer is very, very optimistic rather than still working for the disaster capital fund.

http://eureferendum.com/
http://www.legatum.com/investment/investment-strategy/
Don't read the Legatum institutes policy documents, they are absolute rubbish.

oppenheimer1 wrote: »

While I don't doubt you, when I hear things like this one has to treat it with a great deal of skepticism. Much like people said they'd move to Canada if Trump was elected, how many have followed through? It's an empty threat.

People will only leave the UK if the economy tanks.

He's not alone and it's far from an empty threat: many, both EU immigrants and Brits, have been voting with their feet since June last year [see recent ONS stats for 2016-2017 YTD periods, and witness the plummeting EU immigration rates and proportionally-rocketing EU/Brit nationals' emigration rates].

At least from what I'm seeing at the coalface "oop north", the UK economy is already tanking, after winding down steadfastly for a few months now. This week's news about the core inflation rate won't help plummeting consumer confidence one bit, and simply confirms what I posted last November or December (quoting Dame Frances Cairncross, whose lecture I attended at the time, and whose take-away point was: "inflation is going to skyrocket and kill SMEs by end 2017"). Can't be bothered searching and linking my old post, but I know it's there alright.

I've been in talks with a couple of headhunters since June last year, but putting a move on the long-finger in a watch-and-see mode (and already turned down a move to Amsterdam), because like flatty, I'm fairly invested in my current business and personal situation. Enough not to bail out so far. But the longer the UK government and the Brit MSM maintains the anti-EU, anti-immigrant rethoric and negotiating status quo with Barnier, the shorter the odds of staying get. The likes of the leaked immigration papers, whether never-never propaganda/political tools or not, just ratchet those odds shorter still.

I'm in talks with a handful of headhunters again, to the stage of passing salary etc. packages and asks at the request of prospect employers. For the right offer and opportunity, we're gone within 3 months, less if I manage to arrange a prompt garden leave.

The way I see it, at term the UK is getting itself lined up for a brain drain of epic proportions, like the US, Oz and the Kiwis. Few high-skilled migrants are beating a door to Oz these days, after Turnbull took an axe to the AU visa scheme earlier this year. Likewise to the US, after Trump took office. The EU, Singapore and the Gulf States will just hoover more up.

Fratton Fred wrote: »

It won't be towing the line though, will it. It will cooperate with the agencies involved, not be controlled by them.

So the UK expects to control or influence EU agencies from outside the EU? I don't see that happening.

steddyeddy wrote: »

A letter to the Irish Times today. Criticising Brexit is now anti-British. I guess all remainers must be anti-British so.

Sir. – Your newspaper’s strongly anti-British stance serves only to muddy the waters.

Try to accept that the British people have voted democratically to leave the EU and that, Sir, is exactly what we will do. Respect the will of the British people and offer a lead to all people of goodwill to help minimise the fallout. – Yours, etc,

DAVID E ELLIS,

Swindon,

England.

take a decco at yahoo.uk news as regards brexit, the comments underneath are all one track, we are going we are correct in doing so, any arguement contary are shall i say, spat upon

Fratton Fred wrote: »

Because, in case it missed your notice, Europe has a bit of a problem with terrorism at the moment, plus a few issues with migrants trying to cross the Med.

Security is a mutually beneficial thing and the UK and the majority of eu countries will already cooperate on this through NATO anyway.

Yes, and anyone who want that can join NATO. Ireland will veto any further co-operation on defence issues, the UK knows this, why are they stupidly proposing something the EU doesn't need (because NATO does it already) or want (because the neutrals object)?

For you, maybe, solo. It's not so much for other EU nationals, especially those without the "special" relationship between Ireland and the UK.

Still though, it'll be a *great* country for those that got what they wanted - all the unwanted people with funny accents gone. Fruit-picking jobs for everyone!

oppenheimer1 wrote: »

flatty wrote: »

Well fwiw, I'm a well educated man who.is fortunate enough to have fairly sought after experience. My wife is similar. I have a share in a successful and expanding business, and pay a lot of tax in the UK.
It is now odds on that we are selling up and emigrating.
I don't want my kids brought up in a country with this "leadership"
I may or may not be typical, but we are most likely getting out.

While I don't doubt you, when I hear things like this one has to treat it with a great deal of skepticism. Much like people said they'd move to Canada if Trump was elected, how many have followed through? It's an empty threat.

People will only leave the UK if the economy tanks.

Oh I'm deadly serious and have already set things in train. This isn't an "if trump gets in"
Trump getting in is neither here nor there to the average American.
The slow motion train crash that is brexit is already happening, with the leadership safe in the cabin at the back, only interested in which of them gets the captains stripes. It has brought an ugly side to the country. The company I'm involved with is a major employer in a poor area, and I'll sell my share, but I was instrumental in its foundation.
I doubt I'm alone.
My decision is not financial. I want my kids to grow up in an open national.
How TF is the economy not going to tank in any case?
Of course it's going to tank.