Brexit discussion thread II

blanch152 · 06-09-2017 10:49AM

mickoneill31 wrote: »

I was listening to a podcast this morning where they were saying that the EMA accounts for 40,000 hotel nights in the UK yearly.

I don't know what Dublin can handle but aren't we close to capacity now?

40,000 hotel nights, 220 working days in the year, a hotel with 200 beds would cater for that.

There are six or seven of those under construction in Dublin City Centre at the moment.

http://www.thejournal.ie/new-hotels-dublin-2-3414370-May2017/

Thomas__ · 06-09-2017 10:51AM

Calina wrote: »

Fratton Fred wrote: »

breatheme wrote: »

Wait. So, according to this and the Irish position paper:
- The UK want to retain the CTA and the open border between RoI & NI.
- The UK want EU nationals to enter on their passports.
- EU citizens can enter Ireland with their identity card, and then go on to NI without their passport.
So, what gives? These things are mutually exclusive.

EU citizens need a passport to enter Ireland, as they are leaving the Schengen zone.

Their national identity card is sufficient. They do not require a passport to leave or entee Schengen.

Not today and not yet, but in the future as stated in this article:

http://www.scotsman.com/business/markets-economy/uk-to-end-freedom-of-movement-immediately-after-brexit-1-4552033

It is not envisaged that EU citizens would be required to apply for permission to visit the UK for tourism, family visits and short business trips or be given stamps in their passports on arrival. But they will have to show passports, rather than using a national identity card to enter the country.

Under the document’s proposals, those on longer stays would have to register with the authorities and may be required to provide fingerprints and proof of employment, self-sufficiency or study status.

The right to bring family members into the country could be tightened to only the most direct relatives like partners, spouses and children, and there could be an unspecified “income threshold” for EU citizens to show they can support themselves while in the UK.

Read more at: http://www.scotsman.com/business/markets-economy/uk-to-end-freedom-of-movement-immediately-after-brexit-1-4552033

Seems that this present UK govt is about to bring in more obstacles for EU nationals and maybe even for tourist purpose. Well, when the Brits are going to demand a visa for entering their country as a tourist, they´ll have seen me and I won´t spend any holiday there anymore. There are other countries to go to and to spend my money on.

Thomas__ · 06-09-2017 10:56AM

Calina wrote: »

Ireland is candidate for both agencies currently located in the UK. It isn't a question of should but is already.

That being said, Dublin is an absolute train crash of a city. Its public transport system is an utterly pathetic mess and the accommodation issues are well documented.

I left Dublin last November because its cost/quality ratio was shocking.

It is worth noting that Ireland becomes very peripheral in geographic location once the UK leaves.

I want Ireland to benefit as best possible but the gaps should not be hidden under a carpet. Much of my criticism of the UK is targeted on its inability to face up to reality and deal with hiw things are rather than how they daydream they are. Ireland has a reasonable record of facing reality and the reality is that there are infrastructural issues in fully exploiting Brexit.

I noticed that too, via the media and it´s not just Dublin, increase on rents are reported to have spread across the whole of the Republic of Ireland. When I read the headline that in some areas one has to pay €1.300 rent per month I was wondering how one can afford that. The Irish govt has already said that this housing problem won´t, respectively can´t be solved in this legislature period.

Harika · 06-09-2017 11:20AM

Thomas__ wrote: »

I noticed that too, via the media and it´s not just Dublin, increase on rents are reported to have spread across the whole of the Republic of Ireland. When I read the headline that in some areas one has to pay €1.300 rent per month I was wondering how one can afford that. The Irish govt has already said that this housing problem won´t, respectively can´t be solved in this legislature period.

Most of the bankers will earn a very good salary and won't be discouraged by those prices. Nevertheless, it will put higher pressure on all other people in Dublin, especially in lower paying jobs. Besides that preparations are well on the way to move jobs from the city of London to Paris, Frankfurt and Dublin what you can clearly see at those schools in Frankfurt: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-education/frankfurts-international-schools-see-brexit-bonus-idUSKCN1B30D3
I think some of it will be silent under the banner of diversifying their offices, until the hammer drops and the real effect of Brexit becomes visible to those businesses.

Thomas__ · 06-09-2017 11:39AM

Harika wrote: »

Thomas__ wrote: »

I noticed that too, via the media and it´s not just Dublin, increase on rents are reported to have spread across the whole of the Republic of Ireland. When I read the headline that in some areas one has to pay €1.300 rent per month I was wondering how one can afford that. The Irish govt has already said that this housing problem won´t, respectively can´t be solved in this legislature period.

Most of the bankers will earn a very good salary and won't be discouraged by those prices. Nevertheless, it will put higher pressure on all other people in Dublin, especially in lower paying jobs. Besides that preparations are well on the way to move jobs from the city of London to Paris, Frankfurt and Dublin what you can clearly see at those schools in Frankfurt: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-education/frankfurts-international-schools-see-brexit-bonus-idUSKCN1B30D3
I think some of it will be silent under the banner of diversifying their offices, until the hammer drops and the real effect of Brexit becomes visible to those businesses.

Sure, there are other destinations already considered.

Calina · 06-09-2017 11:56AM

Fratton Fred wrote: »

Calina wrote: »

Their national identity card is sufficient. They do not require a passport to leave or entee Schengen.

Of course, I'm thinking of the API requirements, but the option of an ID card isn't open to British or Irish citizens, as there isn't one.

Regardless though, it is highly unlikely thst eu citizens will need a visa to enter the UK, so why go to all the hassle of going via Ireland, when they can just fly direct, or drive to Calais.

Fred, you stated that EU citizens required passports to enter or leave the Schengen area. This is demonstrably not true.

You only need one if you live in an EU country that does not issue national ID cards.

As for the future who knows what will happen? The UK is being so batsh1t insane on this predictions are off. I certainly wouldn't rely on common sense being applied in the UK given yesterday's leaked document on immigration. Paranoia that some one not British might god before us and all harm want to live in Britain seems to be highly prevalent.

Calina · 06-09-2017 12:00PM

Fratton Fred wrote: »

Calina wrote: »

Ireland is candidate for both agencies currently located in the UK. It isn't a question of should but is already.

That being said, Dublin is an absolute train crash of a city. Its public transport system is an utterly pathetic mess and the accommodation issues are well documented.

I left Dublin last November because its cost/quality ratio was shocking.

It is worth noting that Ireland becomes very peripheral in geographic location once the UK leaves.

I want Ireland to benefit as best possible but the gaps should not be hidden under a carpet. Much of my criticism of the UK is targeted on its inability to face up to reality and deal with hiw things are rather than how they daydream they are. Ireland has a reasonable record of facing reality and the reality is that there are infrastructural issues in fully exploiting Brexit.

it isn't just geographic either. Ireland is losing it biggest and most influential friend in the council, which may prove costly if Macron pushes his anti tax avoidance plans. Historically, the UK has always had Ireland's back on this one.

Tbf, Brexit alone calls into question how much of a friend Britain is to Ireland. Cf NI. Cf deal with DUP. Cf attempt to use Ireland as a bargaining chip.

If the UK had our back on tax it was because Britain had its own back and not Ireland's. Brexit is pure vandalism. Not the act of a friend.

Fratton Fred · 06-09-2017 12:33PM

blanch152 wrote: »

40,000 hotel nights, 220 working days in the year, a hotel with 200 beds would cater for that.

There are six or seven of those under construction in Dublin City Centre at the moment.

http://www.thejournal.ie/new-hotels-dublin-2-3414370-May2017/

Harika wrote: »

Most of the bankers will earn a very good salary and won't be discouraged by those prices. Nevertheless, it will put higher pressure on all other people in Dublin, especially in lower paying jobs. Besides that preparations are well on the way to move jobs from the city of London to Paris, Frankfurt and Dublin what you can clearly see at those schools in Frankfurt: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-education/frankfurts-international-schools-see-brexit-bonus-idUSKCN1B30D3
I think some of it will be silent under the banner of diversifying their offices, until the hammer drops and the real effect of Brexit becomes visible to those businesses.

it won't be bankers moving to Dublin, it will be back office staff and it is unlikely that many of those will be actually moving here, as opposed to just being employed locally.

There seems to be some sort of belief that Barclays are going to close one Churchill Place and move lock, stock and barrel to Grand Canal, that simply is not going to happen.

oppenheimer1 · 06-09-2017 12:36PM

Fratton Fred wrote: »

it isn't just geographic either. Ireland is losing it biggest and most influential friend in the council, which may prove costly if Macron pushes his anti tax avoidance plans. Historically, the UK has always had Ireland's back on this one.

Let's get this straight: the UK has never had Irelands "back". Sure there have been interests where the two countries positions were aligned, but the UK has never supported an Irish position just to be a friendly neighbour. The UK supported the Irish position because it was similar to its own one.

The UK might have supported Ireland on tax, but never supported Ireland on CAP. Ireland built an alliance with France on that.

blanch152 · 06-09-2017 12:38PM

oppenheimer1 wrote: »

Let's get this straight: the UK has never had Irelands "back". Sure there have been interests where the two countries positions were aligned, but the UK has never supported an Irish position just to be a friendly neighbour.

The UK might have supported Ireland on tax, but never supported Ireland on CAP. Ireland built an alliance with France on that.

Very true but it would also be true to say that Ireland's and the UK's interests have been similar on more occasions than Ireland and any other country in the EU.

ambro25 · 06-09-2017 12:42PM

Thomas__ wrote: »

Well, you´ve made your point and I absolutely understand it, no question. Just to your notice, I am no "52%Brit" and I am neither a Brit or an Irishman myself.

Just to be clear, when I said "unless you are a 52%er", I meant the generic 'you', e.g. any thread reader, not you personally (I'm aware of your general stance on Brexit through your earlier posts in here

).

Thomas__ wrote: »

One thing is clear to me, even by considering your own position, which is that to impose more payment obligations on the UK will not improve the situation for EU nationals living in the UK.
<...>
As you live in Britain and are married to a UK national, with bi-national children, you´ll suffer under this Brexit one way or another. Looking at it from that point, I can´t get the notion why you´d support an even harder treatment of the Brits from the EU whan all this will backfire on yourself and your family.

But I don't

As posted before, I don't wish ill of the average Brit, nor to see the UK "punished" for having the temerity to exit EU.

My stance on Brexit, any prejudice aside (most of the time I hope, when I keep the rage in check

) is very simply that of a cartesian adult with a strong, perhaps overdeveloped, sense of personal responsibility and morality: anyone can make a mistake, but once it's made, only they can decide how to correct it, and in any case they must assume the entire consequences of that mistake. No endless blaming to harass them with, but no freebies either: just expecting contrition, reparations if damage was caused, and learning enough from the mistake not to repeat it again.

Given that context, all I want to see is Brits/the UK (England, really) made to lie in the bed they made for themselves, nothing more. Because I've been here long enough to know that not enough of them (i.e. a critical voting mass) will "get it" (overcome anti-EU bias and prejudice), until they've been through it at the coalface (actually got to feel and miss all of that, which the EU membership was actually doing for them).

It's the only pragmatic way of neutering the nationalist siren calls, given the UK's bipolar political system under the FPTP and the partisan press.

Politicians' head on spikes outside the Tower would be nice, though

Thomas__ wrote: »

I do understand your anger and certainly your disappointment, but unless you look for alternative solutions for the "Day X", which fits yourself and your family, you´ll all remain in this mess like it or not.
<...>
I really feel sorry for you, your family and all the others living in the UK who share the same problems you face.

Don't feel sorry, and worry not about little old me. I'm not trapped here

The fact that I'm still here now, is simply down to still having a good and easy life for now, and to fighting the good corporate fight while there's still a chance (-for the firm I'm in, with opening an EU office by March 2019). If and when that project should reach unachievable status by horizon March 2019, I'll be dropping them like yesterday's pants and ship out of the UK, family in tow.

ancapailldorcha · 06-09-2017 12:49PM

Interesting tweet from Britain Elects. Seems that the French actually want the UK out:

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/904997458035564545

Thomas__ · 06-09-2017 01:00PM

ambro25 wrote: »

Thomas__ wrote: »

Well, you´ve made your point and I absolutely understand it, no question. Just to your notice, I am no "52%Brit" and I am neither a Brit or an Irishman myself.

Just to be clear, when I said "unless you are a 52%er", I meant the generic 'you', e.g. any thread reader, not you personally (I'm aware of your general stance on Brexit through your earlier posts in here ).

Thomas__ wrote: »

One thing is clear to me, even by considering your own position, which is that to impose more payment obligations on the UK will not improve the situation for EU nationals living in the UK.
<...>
As you live in Britain and are married to a UK national, with bi-national children, you´ll suffer under this Brexit one way or another. Looking at it from that point, I can´t get the notion why you´d support an even harder treatment of the Brits from the EU whan all this will backfire on yourself and your family.

But I don't

As posted before, I don't wish ill of the average Brit, nor to see the UK "punished" for having the temerity to exit EU.

My stance on Brexit, any prejudice aside (most of the time I hope, when I keep the rage in check ) is very simply that of a cartesian adult with a strong, perhaps overdeveloped, sense of personal responsibility and morality: anyone can make a mistake, but once it's made, only they can decide how to correct it, and in any case they must assume the entire consequences of that mistake. No endless blaming to harass them with, but no freebies either: just expecting contrition, reparations if damage was caused, and learning enough from the mistake not to repeat it again.

Given that context, all I want to see is Brits/the UK (England, really) made to lie in the bed they made for themselves, nothing more. Because I've been here long enough to know that not enough of them (i.e. a critical voting mass) will "get it" (overcome anti-EU bias and prejudice), until they've been through it at the coalface (actually got to feel and miss all of that, which the EU membership was actually doing for them).

It's the only pragmatic way of neutering the nationalist siren calls, given the UK's bipolar political system under the FPTP and the partisan press.

Politicians' head on spikes outside the Tower would be nice, though

Thomas__ wrote: »

I do understand your anger and certainly your disappointment, but unless you look for alternative solutions for the "Day X", which fits yourself and your family, you´ll all remain in this mess like it or not.
<...>
I really feel sorry for you, your family and all the others living in the UK who share the same problems you face.

Don't feel sorry, and worry not about little old me. I'm not trapped here

The fact that I'm still here now, is simply down to still having a good and easy life for now, and to fighting the good corporate fight while there's still a chance (-for the firm I'm in, with opening an EU office by March 2019). If and when that project should reach unachievable status by horizon March 2019, I'll be dropping them like yesterday's pants and ship out of the UK, family in tow.

Point taken and good luck to you.

Jim2007 · 06-09-2017 01:02PM

Fratton Fred wrote: »

it won't be bankers moving to Dublin, it will be back office staff and it is unlikely that many of those will be actually moving here, as opposed to just being employed locally.

Go do some studying on Passporting, without it there is no point in leaving bankers in London! For financial services NY is the gateway to the US, Singapore to Asia and London used to be Europe, now it is about to be come the gateway to no where!

Moving back office to Dublin would not help in respect of BREXIT.

Thomas__ · 06-09-2017 01:06PM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Interesting tweet from Britain Elects. Seems that the French actually want the UK out:

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/904997458035564545

I am not surprised by that al all, at all. Maybe those stranded migrants on the French coast who want to get to the UK are also - in some ways - a reason for the result of this poll. It might be possible that after the UK has left the EU and together with that this special agreement between the UK and France, which allows border checks implemented by UK Border personell on French soil, will be suspended, France might just let them go to the UK cos the UK border personell would have to leave back to UK soil and close down their check points at Calais. Well, that won´t be welcomed by the British for this would cause some trouble for them to send them back, with France refusing to take them back, more so when they have no documentation (passports etc.).

murphaph · 06-09-2017 01:48PM

Fratton Fred wrote: »

Of course, I'm thinking of the API requirements, but the option of an ID card isn't open to British or Irish citizens, as there isn't one.

Regardless though, it is highly unlikely thst eu citizens will need a visa to enter the UK, so why go to all the hassle of going via Ireland, when they can just fly direct, or drive to Calais.

The Irish route means their comings and goings into and out of the UK remain completely undocumented. If you want to work in the UK's black economy (about to get a huge Brexit boost) then you travel via Ireland, which is well connected to most of Eastern Europe on budget airlines. The EU will, quite rightly, not tolerate Ireland passing on any EU national's details to a third country for the purposes of tracking who comes and goes.

It's a huge back door that's wide open and makes a mockery of taking back control of EU migration.

Once a few headlines appear in the DM etc highlighting the issue, the CTA will be called into question by an ever more insular UK.

Billy86 · 06-09-2017 02:00PM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Interesting tweet from Britain Elects. Seems that the French actually want the UK out:

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/904997458035564545

Its telling how difficult it is to tell if man of the replies are serious or not.

Fratton Fred · 06-09-2017 02:18PM

Calina wrote: »

Fred, you stated that EU citizens required passports to enter or leave the Schengen area. This is demonstrably not true.

You only need one if you live in an EU country that does not issue national ID cards.

I know, I corrected my statement in the following post. :rolleyes:

Calina wrote: »

As for the future who knows what will happen? The UK is being so batsh1t insane on this predictions are off. I certainly wouldn't rely on common sense being applied in the UK given yesterday's leaked document on immigration. Paranoia that some one not British might god before us and all harm want to live in Britain seems to be highly prevalent.

maybe then, you could explain how the UK's document on immigration differs on the eu's treatment of third country nationals?

oppenheimer1 wrote: »

Let's get this straight: the UK has never had Irelands "back". Sure there have been interests where the two countries positions were aligned, but the UK has never supported an Irish position just to be a friendly neighbour. The UK supported the Irish position because it was similar to its own one.

The UK might have supported Ireland on tax, but never supported Ireland on CAP. Ireland built an alliance with France on that.

OK, I'm sorry. the big bad nasty British can't ever have had Ireland's back, can they. If they did, that would mean they aren't the big bad nasty Brits :rolleyes:

Jim2007 wrote: »

Go do some studying on Passporting, without it there is no point in leaving bankers in London! For financial services NY is the gateway to the US, Singapore to Asia and London used to be Europe, now it is about to be come the gateway to no where!

Moving back office to Dublin would not help in respect of BREXIT.

wtf is a banker by the way?

passporting is a doddle. Every major bank would have subsidiaries in european countries, those subsidiaries will be used to provide services in the eu.

As I said, there will not be wholescale moving of wealthy bankers (whatever a banker is) to Dublin. That is just fantasy stuff

Fratton Fred · 06-09-2017 02:19PM

murphaph wrote: »

The Irish route means their comings and goings into and out of the UK remain completely undocumented. If you want to work in the UK's black economy (about to get a huge Brexit boost) then you travel via Ireland, which is well connected to most of Eastern Europe on budget airlines

so how is that different to today? If someone from Brazil lands in Dublin, they can travel to the UK and work in the blackmarket, can they not?

Fratton Fred · 06-09-2017 02:29PM

Thomas__ wrote: »

I am not surprised by that al all, at all. Maybe those stranded migrants on the French coast who want to get to the UK are also - in some ways - a reason for the result of this poll. It might be possible that after the UK has left the EU and together with that this special agreement between the UK and France, which allows border checks implemented by UK Border personell on French soil, will be suspended, France might just let them go to the UK cos the UK border personell would have to leave back to UK soil and close down their check points at Calais. Well, that won´t be welcomed by the British for this would cause some trouble for them to send them back, with France refusing to take them back, more so when they have no documentation (passports etc.).

If they have no documentation then France would be breaking schengen rules by letting them leave France.

ambro25 · 06-09-2017 02:34PM

Fratton Fred wrote: »

If they have no documentation then France would be breaking schengen rules by letting them leave France.

Out of interest, in which forum would you expect the UK to enforce these rules after Brexit, i.e. after it has exited the jurisdiction of the EU and the EEA (of which the Schengen agreement/convention is now an integral part)?

ECJ, per chance?

Fratton Fred · 06-09-2017 02:45PM

ambro25 wrote: »

Out of interest, in which forum would you expect the UK to enforce these rules after Brexit, i.e. after it has exited the jurisdiction of the EU and the EEA (of which the Schengen agreement/convention is now an integral part)?

ECJ, per chance?

The same one France uses when the UK stick them on a train back to Paris maybe?

oppenheimer1 · 06-09-2017 02:46PM

Fratton Fred wrote: »

OK, I'm sorry. the big bad nasty British can't ever have had Ireland's back, can they. If they did, that would mean they aren't the big bad nasty Brits :rolleyes:

It's not about the British being nasty. The British government has no mandate to act for Irish interests unless it's also in their own interest also. It's misleading to say the British government had Irelands "back", as if it was a favour by a good friend. The British government acts in the best interest of Britain (apparently), to further its own goals, no one else's. Sometimes it's a happy coincidence that they align with Ireland like on tax on others they don't align like CAP and take an opposite stance.

There is nothing personal about this and emotions like being nasty don't come into it.

To paraphrase Kissinger, there are no friends in international diplomacy, only interests.

Gerry T · 06-09-2017 02:59PM

Fratton Fred wrote:

OK, I'm sorry. the big bad nasty British can't ever have had Ireland's back, can they. If they did, that would mean they aren't the big bad nasty Brits

I don't remember when they did, other than genocide killing millions of us, removing our education etc... When have they helped us? And please don't quote an example where "helping" us was in their own best interest.

Chips Lovell · 06-09-2017 03:03PM

The topic of this thread is Brexit. Let's not turn it into another discussion of British rule.

murphaph · 06-09-2017 03:15PM

Fratton Fred wrote: »

so how is that different to today? If someone from Brazil lands in Dublin, they can travel to the UK and work in the blackmarket, can they not?

No! It's not the same. Currently the UK and Ireland share information about arrivals from third countries! That will not happen for EU citizens arriving in Ireland. Not a chance.

The Brazilian is recorded and gets a stamp in his passport as he enters Ireland. The Pole does not, nor will he after Brexit.

jm08 · 06-09-2017 03:18PM

Fratton Fred wrote: »

passporting is a doddle. Every major bank would have subsidiaries in european countries, those subsidiaries will be used to provide services in the eu.

As a foreign bank, they would have to apply for a licence in every country they have a branch in (which takes between a year and 18 months to get).

As I said, there will not be wholescale moving of wealthy bankers (whatever a banker is) to Dublin. That is just fantasy stuff

Most of them seem to be heading off to Frankfurt which is an unusual choice if it doesn't matter where you stick up your brass plate.

Jim2007 · 06-09-2017 03:22PM

murphaph wrote: »

Currently the UK and Ireland share information about arrivals from third countries!

The also have access to the Schengen information system, which provides details of such things as if the person was rejected for Schengen visa, fined for an overstay or was deported.

Usually if you are on a Schengen black list, getting into Ireland or the UK is almost impossible - the idea is that if you did it once, you'll do it again.

Jim2007 · 06-09-2017 03:25PM

jm08 wrote: »

Most of them seem to be heading off to Frankfurt which is an unusual choice if it doesn't matter where you stick up your brass plate.

Not at all many of them have their fall back systems, data centres etc in Frankfurt.

Fratton Fred · 06-09-2017 03:36PM

jm08 wrote: »

As a foreign bank, they would have to apply for a licence in every country they have a branch in (which takes between a year and 18 months to get).

As a foreign bank, yes. But most of them (if not all) will not be foreign banks. They will own subsidiaries in at least one or more european country, if indeed they aren't actually French or German banks in the first place.

HSBC estimate that maybe 1000 jobs could move to Paris (they employ 43,000 in the UK) to cover the 20% of its business that will be affected by a hard Brexit.

jm08 wrote: »

Most of them seem to be heading off to Frankfurt which is an unusual choice if it doesn't matter where you stick up your brass plate.

moving the europe's second largest financial centre is an unusual move?

Brexit discussion thread II

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