Brexit discussion thread II

Billy86 · 28-08-2017 12:27PM

Fratton Fred wrote: »

how do you know what I believe?

I've been kind of in and out on the thread, could you bring me and others like me up to speed on what you do believe on that matter?

LeinsterDub · 28-08-2017 12:30PM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

What you are doing is pretending that you know why the British public voted the way it did, and then pretending that that means British politicians have no choice but to wreck the UK.

I'm doing no such thing. I said a certain section of the British public voted to take back control. This is undeniable. I didn't say British should or would listen to them. I just pointed out the irony of voting to take back control only to lose even more control

Panrich · 28-08-2017 12:32PM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Perhaps Solo believes like Fred, that the threat to damage trade with the EU is intended only to make the EU agree to some special deal. If so, they are about to find that the EU is too big to threaten that way.

But I think they really intend to damage trade, and the position papers are intended only to lay the blame with the EU afterwards.

Reaction to the EU is bordering on hysterical at times and the amount of vitriol towards it is worrying given that the 'bad times' are still to come. The softening of Labours stance has been met with a real backlash from hard-line brexiters.

Tory support is gravitating towards Rees-Mogg in the wake of reports that the ECJ might still have a role to play and a social media campaign seems to be under way. There are invisible hands pulling the levers still.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/aug/28/brexiters-ecj-backlash-rally-support-jacob-rees-mogg

Peregrinus · 28-08-2017 12:33PM

Actually, this makes sense and is a useful clarification, even though it's not entirely correct. In the UK, the rear brake lever is on the left hand side, and the front brake lever on the right. In France , it's the other way around.

It's not true to say that the French standard is a European norm; Italy follows the UK practice, for example. On this issue there's no European standard (and SFAIK no national standards; manufacturers and cycle engineers are free to do whatever they like in this regard). It's just the market practice in different countries to do things different ways. Nevertheless the common French configuration is commonly referred to in the UK as "European style".

With the advent of the single market, the growth of parallel imports, etc, it's increasingly common to find bikes with the brakes configured in what is (for the country of sale) an unfamiliar way. This particular website is clarifying what their practice is.

steddyeddy · 28-08-2017 12:39PM

Fratton Fred wrote: »

how do you know what I believe?

I suppose because you offer no criticism of some of the pro-brexit posts here and even thank them.

PeadarCo · 28-08-2017 12:52PM

Jim2007 wrote:

Actually there may well be a difference - my Swiss bike has the brake leavers reversed...

That is a different but its as much as an informal custom as anything else which sides of the handlebars the front and rear brake controls are on. The front brake has more braking power than the rear(something to do with physics of it I think). Its not a big deal to switch them around. Just a bit of an extra expense if you want to change them around to suit your own personal preferences. Its nothing to do with brexit.

Zubeneschamali · 28-08-2017 12:57PM

Fratton Fred wrote: »

how do you know what I believe?

I am guessing what you believe based on your posts.

You have suggested many times that the UK statements of what they want are opening statements in negotiations, and not to be taken at face value.

Zubeneschamali · 28-08-2017 01:00PM

LeinsterDub wrote: »

I'm doing no such thing. I said a certain section of the British public voted to take back control. This is undeniable.

What makes you believe that is undeniable?

Brexit will give them less control, not more, so they should have chosen Remain if this was their big issue.

LeinsterDub · 28-08-2017 01:11PM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

What makes you believe that is undeniable?

Brexit will give them less control, not more, so they should have chosen Remain if this was their big issue.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnmauldin/2016/07/05/3-reasons-brits-voted-for-brexit/#7005b8c41f9d
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Causes_of_the_vote_in_favour_of_Brexit#Sovereignty
https://www.usnews.com/opinion/articles/2016-06-30/poll-shows-brexit-vote-was-about-british-sovereignty-not-anti-immigration

How do you figure brexit (read hard brexit) gives them less control/sovereignty

Sam Russell · 28-08-2017 01:18PM

Jim2007 wrote: »

Actually there may well be a difference - my Swiss bike has the brake leavers reversed...

I was amused by the tone of the comments, including the double exclamation marks. If it was just the side the front brake was on, they could have said that. I think that the mention of British standards, rather than customs elevates it to the Brexit level. Just saying .....

Zubeneschamali · 28-08-2017 01:20PM

LeinsterDub wrote: »

How do you figure brexit (read hard brexit) gives them less control/sovereignty

Today, Britain has a say in the rules of the EU and Single Market. The EU will remain their largest market after Brexit, but they will just have to comply with EU rules for trade without any input.

Like Norway and Switzerland today.

They are copying EU law into UK law, and in theory could change it later, but in practice, every change to UK law which diverges from EU law will be an extra hindrance to trade in future. Likewise, if EU law changes in future and the UK does not copy the change, that will likewise be a hindrance. So they have a theoretical sovereignty, but in practice will be in lock step with laws they cannot influence unless they want to sacrifice trade.

Fratton Fred · 28-08-2017 01:22PM

Peregrinus wrote: »

Actually, this makes sense and is a useful clarification, even though it's not entirely correct. In the UK, the rear brake lever is on the left hand side, and the front brake lever on the right. In France , it's the other way around.

It's not true to say that the French standard is a European norm; Italy follows the UK practice, for example. On this issue there's no European standard (and SFAIK no national standards; manufacturers and cycle engineers are free to do whatever they like in this regard). It's just the market practice in different countries to do things different ways. Nevertheless the common French configuration is commonly referred to in the UK as "European style".

With the advent of the single market, the growth of parallel imports, etc, it's increasingly common to find bikes with the brakes configured in what is (for the country of sale) an unfamiliar way. This particular website is clarifying what their practice is.

I didn't know about Italy, but in Spain it is certainly the same as France.

LeinsterDub · 28-08-2017 02:29PM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Today, Britain has a say in the rules of the EU and Single Market. The EU will remain their largest market after Brexit, but they will just have to comply with EU rules for trade without any input.

Like Norway and Switzerland today.

They are copying EU law into UK law, and in theory could change it later, but in practice, every change to UK law which diverges from EU law will be an extra hindrance to trade in future. Likewise, if EU law changes in future and the UK does not copy the change, that will likewise be a hindrance. So they have a theoretical sovereignty, but in practice will be in lock step with laws they cannot influence unless they want to sacrifice trade.

Which is what I've been saying. Only in a nuclear hard Brexit would they've no obligation to follow any EU laws.

PeadarCo · 28-08-2017 02:38PM

Sam Russell wrote:

I was amused by the tone of the comments, including the double exclamation marks. If it was just the side the front brake was on, they could have said that. I think that the mention of British standards, rather than customs elevates it to the Brexit level. Just saying .....

To fair a knowledgeable cyclist in this part of the world would understand what they are saying. Its alot less wordy as well. Brakes are an important bike part and are probably just protecting themselves legally.

Even though it does show it can be very easy to overreact to throwaway comments in negotiation talks/small changes in business practices. However saying that most of the changes from a business point of view can't be considered small. Politically though for all the talk the UK have barely moved on deciding what they want.

Sam Russell · 28-08-2017 02:45PM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Today, Britain has a say in the rules of the EU and Single Market. The EU will remain their largest market after Brexit, but they will just have to comply with EU rules for trade without any input.

Like Norway and Switzerland today.

They are copying EU law into UK law, and in theory could change it later, but in practice, every change to UK law which diverges from EU law will be an extra hindrance to trade in future. Likewise, if EU law changes in future and the UK does not copy the change, that will likewise be a hindrance. So they have a theoretical sovereignty, but in practice will be in lock step with laws they cannot influence unless they want to sacrifice trade.

Not only that, they will have to duplicate all standards agencies or submit products to the EU standards authority. Surely a UK standards authority will require a similar number of employees as an EU authority, so that cost will be born solely by the UK whereas the EU one will be shared by 28 27 counties. Carry that over to the hundred or so EU agencies, and the cost saving from leaving the EU will begin to disappear.

They will have the sovereign decision to not pay their farmers their CAP money, and to not pay their impoverished regions their EU regional funds, but of course that gives more power to Westminster. That is one way to take back control.

Billy86 · 28-08-2017 02:45PM

LeinsterDub wrote: »

I'm doing no such thing. I said a certain section of the British public voted to take back control. This is undeniable. I didn't say British should or would listen to them. I just pointed out the irony of voting to take back control only to lose even more control

Well it depends what way you're looking at it. If you view global trade markets as a tumultuous sea, the UK were part of the great ship EU. This ship had huge control over the seas and other vessels, and in getting to where it was heading at any given time. But the UK were unhappy that they didn't get full say over where the vessel to head to.

Now they're in a rubber dinghy, pouring out water by the bucket over and over again to keep afloat as much as possible while any leaks would threaten to almost drown them. They can't control the ships around them, they can't control the tide or current, they don't have a clear sight nor even much of any idea where they are headed to. But they have control, all the control in the world to say "lets head right, as far right as the horizon will take us!" - even if their compass is broken and they're bound to get flung back left, forwards, backwards, or any diagonal mix of those at any moment.

The EU meanwhile carries onwards.

First Up · 28-08-2017 03:47PM

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Which is what I've been saying. Only in a nuclear hard Brexit would they've no obligation to follow any EU laws.

Except that if they want to continue to sell their goods to the EU, they will have to comply with EU standards.

Jim2007 · 28-08-2017 04:05PM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Today, Britain has a say in the rules of the EU and Single Market. The EU will remain their largest market after Brexit, but they will just have to comply with EU rules for trade without any input.

Like Norway and Switzerland today.

But that is not the case.

- We both have to accept ECJ rules on market issues, Switzerland directly and Norway via the rulings of the EFTA court on EEA matters.

- We both have to contribute to EU structural funds etc...

- We both have to accept rulings of EU standard setting bodies etc.

- We both have to accept FMOP

It is not just about simple trading rules.

LeinsterDub · 28-08-2017 04:06PM

Billy86 wrote: »

Well it depends what way you're looking at it. If you view global trade markets as a tumultuous sea, the UK were part of the great ship EU. This ship had huge control over the seas and other vessels, and in getting to where it was heading at any given time. But the UK were unhappy that they didn't get full say over where the vessel to head to.

Now they're in a rubber dinghy, pouring out water by the bucket over and over again to keep afloat as much as possible while any leaks would threaten to almost drown them. They can't control the ships around them, they can't control the tide or current, they don't have a clear sight nor even much of any idea where they are headed to. But they have control, all the control in the world to say "lets head right, as far right as the horizon will take us!" - even if their compass is broken and they're bound to get flung back left, forwards, backwards, or any diagonal mix of those at any moment.

The EU meanwhile carries onwards.

And to carry on the analogy leaving the EU and staying in the common market is like deciding you no longer want to be co-captain of the Good Ship EU but would rather be in a rubber dinghy tethered to in the wake of the Good Ship EU, follow wherever she goes but no longer steering the boat

LeinsterDub · 28-08-2017 04:09PM

First Up wrote: »

Except that if they want to continue to sell their goods to the EU, they will have to comply with EU standards.

Which was my original point.

First Up · 28-08-2017 04:15PM

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Which was my original point.

In #1964 you said they would not have to follow EU laws in a nuclear hard Brexit.

If they want to trade, they would.

LeinsterDub · 28-08-2017 05:04PM

First Up wrote: »

In #1964 you said they would not have to follow EU laws in a nuclear hard Brexit.

If they want to trade, they would.

As I said 'nuclear brexit' as in no relationship with the EU trade or otherwise

First Up · 28-08-2017 05:15PM

LeinsterDub wrote:

As I said 'nuclear brexit' as in no relationship with the EU trade or otherwise

You think that is a possibility?

johnnyskeleton · 28-08-2017 07:08PM

Mod note:

Glad we have cleared that up. UK is not North Korea, and if they want to have any kind of ongoing trade with the EU, UK companies will have to comply with at least some EU regulations.

Now, maybe we can move on and discuss other aspects of Brexit please.

joeysoap · 28-08-2017 07:39PM

Anyone ever google 'Brexit news? I do it once a day for a laugh, and it is a hoot.

Daily express, Sunday express and Telegraph usually have 'storys' of Uk splitting EU unity, how much business Germany is going to lose onc Uk departs and how Macron and Merkel split on Brexit etc etc

Guardian is usually the opposite, and the independent usually in the middle.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/08/28/britain-lashes-ill-judged-barnier-scolds-uk-brexit-ambiguity/

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/08/27/exclusive-eu-could-open-brexit-climbdown-trade-talks-amid-revolt/

The one thing that is clear though is that the UK is one very divided place right now, and no matter who comes out on top they will remain divided for a long time.

* Ireland is seldom mentioned by the telegraph or express.

Capt'n Midnight · 28-08-2017 08:45PM

Sam Russell wrote: »

They will have the sovereign decision to not pay their farmers their CAP money, and to not pay their impoverished regions their EU regional funds, but of course that gives more power to Westminster. That is one way to take back control.

Well they've already said they'd pay the farmers. Well those that meet with some yet to be decided environmental standard, so nothing to worry about there is there ?

Water John · 28-08-2017 09:08PM

Ha! Think they'll be looking at NZ as their future model, no supports. Food cheap as possible.

Peter Flynt · 28-08-2017 09:13PM

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

Mod note:

Glad we have cleared that up. UK is not North Korea, and if they want to have any kind of ongoing trade with the EU, UK companies will have to comply with at least some EU regulations.

Now, maybe we can move on and discuss other aspects of Brexit please.

Not SOME EU regulations. . . ALL of them.

Junkyard Tom · 28-08-2017 10:39PM

Water John wrote: »

Ha! Think they'll be looking at NZ as their future model, no supports. Food cheap as possible.

The farmers in the north will be delighted.

Peter Flynt wrote: »

Not SOME EU regulations. . . ALL of them.

They're going to have to clone EU regulations for all production/exports that are destined for the EU, isn't it?

Peregrinus · 29-08-2017 02:06AM

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

They're going to have to clone EU regulations for all production/exports that are destined for the EU, isn't it?

No, not necessarily. If manufacturers want to sell into the EU market, they'll have to comply with EU market requirements. There'll be no need for cloned UK regulations telling them they must do this; simple self-interest will lead them to do it. Just as, if they are manufacturing for the US market, they currently manufacture to the standards legally required of goods in that market.

The thing is, under this arrangement, UK goods will still be disadvantaged in the EU market. Goods produced with in the EU are known to have been produced under a regulatory regime which imposes EU market standards; goods produced in the UK are not. So when UK goods are imported into the EU, they are liable to inspection, certification, etc, (as well as customs clearance), all of which adds to the importer's costs. So, all other things being equal, the (say) French wholesaler will prefer to buy product from Portugal or Bulgaria or Finland than from the UK.

So, the UK may want a trade deal under which the EU admits UK goods as if they had been produced in the EU. (Certainly, that's what UK manufacturers would prefer.) And, to get that, yes, they'll either have to clone the EU regulations relevant to the goods concerned, or apply them by reference.

Brexit discussion thread II

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