Brexit discussion thread II

Calina · 15-08-2017 01:26PM

Fratton Fred wrote: »

the current government has been left with a heap of **** they are trying to sort out. There is no precedent for this, it is completely uncharted territory.

While I agree there is no precedent for this, I have to say that I don't think the last May government or the current one is handling it in a remotely rational manner. This saddens me because with some pragmatism and less sword waving and talking about cake and eating it, article 50 notification could have been delayed while the UK got a policy together and negotiations might have been more effective. As it is, it still seems to me that the UK is winging it. That does not really augur well.

murphaph · 15-08-2017 01:28PM

Fratton Fred wrote: »

There are people on here calling for the UK to be punished

Where?

Peter Flynt · 15-08-2017 01:29PM

jm08 wrote: »

On traditional foods produced in the UK, this is where it stands:

Pork (produces 55% of its own pork)
Beef - 75%
Lamb - 92%
Poultry - 74%
Butter - 75%
Yogurt - 75%
Cheese - 55%

Milk (powdered milk) is at 200% (which it exports the excess).

Those figures would look good on, say, the side of a bus.

Fratton Fred · 15-08-2017 01:30PM

joeysoap wrote: »

Thank you for your reply and Fratton Fred also.

I was curious to know if either of you remained EU citizens after Brexit. Nothing else

I am still undecided on this. I have the luxury of being able to fairly easily avail of Irish citizenship if needed, but I don't think it will. An irish passport may be handy for skipping queues at airports though.

Peter Flynt wrote: »

A heap of **** of their own creation.

The politicians be working 16 hour days.
Instead they're on holidays for an entire month. Davis, when he is at "work", puts in a three day week.

Remarkably blasé considering the "uncharted territory" you refer to . . . As the countdown clock keeps ticking away.

As Calina says below, the real work of any government is done by the civil servants and they won't be away for a month. Considering the past twelve months Theresa May has had, I can't blame her for clearing off for a few weeks, she must be exhausted.

Calina wrote: »

I'm inclined not to try and predict the future in too much detail - after all, David Cameron promised to implement the people's decision because he assumed they would vote to stay in the EU.

But.

The UK Independent suggests there are about 50 reports lying around government departments regarding the impact of Brexit on various sectors which the government does not under any circumstances want to publish as it could damage the UK's negotiating position. This actually strikes me as reasonable because on the face of it, the UK's position is weak and weakening. I would not be surprised were the EU to make a reasonable guess at the contents of those reports, but what is important about them is that civil servants are doing work at least in the UK. And it is civil servants who in general do the most part of practical work of any government.

I remain uncertain that Brexit will happen. But whether it does or not, one of the key issues is that politically, the UK is very deeply divided and increasingly polarised. Regardless of the outcome, this needs to be addressed by the political class in the country. Otherwise ultimately, the UK is likely to break apart.

this is so so true.

Sam Russell · 15-08-2017 01:33PM

Let me try an analogy that is not club based.

Let us imagine a Very Large Multi-National with a subsidiary in the UK. The Uk management want to do a management buy-out. After all, it is a good business, and should do well.

1. The two outfits have to agree a price - but first to decide a basis for the buy-out price. Afterall, is the VLMN

2. They need access to markets - will the current v. large multinational allow them to use their other subsidiaries and agents for sales? Perhaps, but what is in it for the LMN?

3. What about designs, patents and other IP, like trade marks?

4. How does the UK outfit do product development, product certification? Will they be allowed to use the parent company for any back-office services? Can they continue to sell products made by other divisions of the VLMN? And on what terms? Will they get credit? Can they afford it as they will have to build the whole lot from scratch?

5. Will they try to compete with their previous owner, and will that be permitted?

Oh dear, it appears a lot more complicated that it appeared at first.

For example SAAB were part of GM and were to be sold off, but the deal collapsed because GM would not licence patents for the continued manufacture of SAAB models, even though those patents were originally SAAB patents, transferred to GM after GM took over SAAB. SAAB no longer exists as a motor manufacturer and it was just shut down.

GM are currently selling Opel to Peugot-Citoen. We will see how that works out.

Jim2007 · 15-08-2017 01:37PM

Fratton Fred wrote: »

ouoch. You might ant to ask a few of the posters on here how they would feel about that one.

But that is what is about to happen. If they don't sort out an agreement, UK citizens will have to be treated as third country citizens requiring visas. There is not visa free travel program that they fit into.

Fratton Fred wrote: »

the current government has been left with a heap of **** they are trying to sort out.

Not at all the current government is the problem. Rather than provide leadership they have concentrated on pandering to the polls, with the result that everyone of them is heading off in different directions.

Fratton Fred · 15-08-2017 01:39PM

Sam Russell wrote: »

Let me try an analogy that is not club based.

Let us imagine a Very Large Multi-National with a subsidiary in the UK. The Uk management want to do a management buy-out. After all, it is a good business, and should do well.

1. The two outfits have to agree a price - but first to decide a basis for the buy-out price. Afterall, is the VLMN

2. They need access to markets - will the current v. large multinational allow them to use their other subsidiaries and agents for sales? Perhaps, but what is in it for the LMN?

3. What about designs, patents and other IP, like trade marks?

4. How does the UK outfit do product development, product certification? Will they be allowed to use the parent company for any back-office services? Can they continue to sell products made by other divisions of the VLMN? And on what terms? Will they get credit? Can they afford it as they will have to build the whole lot from scratch?

5. Will they try to compete with their previous owner, and will that be permitted?

Oh dear, it appears a lot more complicated that it appeared at first.

For example SAAB were part of GM and were to be sold off, but the deal collapsed because GM would not licence patents for the continued manufacture of SAAB models, even though those patents were originally SAAB patents, transferred to GM after GM took over SAAB. SAAB no longer exists as a motor manufacturer and it was just shut down.

GM are currently selling Opel to Peugot-Citoen. We will see how that works out.

analogy to what, this isn't a management buy out?

Unless you are saying that the eu owns its member states?

Fratton Fred · 15-08-2017 01:43PM

Jim2007 wrote: »

But that is what is about to happen. If they don't sort out an agreement, UK citizens will have to be treated as third country citizens requiring visas. There is not visa free travel program that they fit into.

and irish citizens in the UK will be treated the same, which is why I asked how several posters on here would feel about that.

Jim2007 wrote: »

Not at all the current government is the problem. Rather than provide leadership they have concentrated on pandering to the polls, with the result that everyone of them is heading off in different directions.

the problem is that the country is very divided at the moment. Even the main opposition party (who people seem to think are the saviors from all this) have no idea what to do because they are too scared of alienating their support.

solodeogloria · 15-08-2017 01:54PM

Jim2007 wrote: »

But that is what is about to happen. If they don't sort out an agreement, UK citizens will have to be treated as third country citizens requiring visas. There is not visa free travel program that they fit into.

Not at all the current government is the problem. Rather than provide leadership they have concentrated on pandering to the polls, with the result that everyone of them is heading off in different directions.

Good afternoon!

Firstly it isn't true that there isn't a visa free travel scheme the UK won't fall into. The UK are already scheduled to be a part of a visa free waiver. It's like the American one. You apply expressing your intent to enter for up to 90 days. It costs €5. The UK will fall into the visa free travel scheme the EU will set up in 2020. There's no point in this fearmongering.

We don't need to lie about British people requiring visas. It's also not true that Irish people will require visas. The CTA will be maintained. The UK are clear on this and will be publishing this tomorrow. Irish people will also keep free movement into the UK.

Secondly - everyone needs to calm down. It's delusional to think that Brexit will result in anything other than a typical fudged deal. It won't be everything the UK wants or everything Europe wants.

This idea of a punitive Brexit is only a perverse obsession that some posters have on this thread.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

Peter Flynt · 15-08-2017 02:00PM

Fratton Fred wrote: »

As Calina says below, the real work of any government is done by the civil servants and they won't be away for a month. Considering the past twelve months Theresa May has had, I can't blame her for clearing off for a few weeks, she must be exhausted.

Wrong.

But ah, poor Theresa. She's only the PM after all.

The idea that the politicians can put their feet up and let their minions do all the work is facile.

Jim2007 · 15-08-2017 02:02PM

Fratton Fred wrote: »

It is the same old double speak again. People calling for the UK to be punished with punitive tariffs or whatever and then trying to make out people are complaining about this?

I'm not aware of anyone calling for the UK to be punished. That is unless point out the logical consequence of BREXIT is an issue for you.

Davis etc al, have already pointed out that in their application for WTO membership they are proposing to take over the same agreements as they had as an EU member But there is not indication that the other 120 member will accept it. Indeed both India and Australia have already indicated that the expect freer access to the UK labour market as part of any trade deal, so that is already a departure.

Fratton Fred wrote: »

Punitive measures against the UK are in no one;s best interests.

I hear that statement often, as if it was self evident, but it is not. Competition is tight for air carries and having one or two excluded would not necessarily be a bad thing for the those remaining. Likewise in the old days we talked about percentage profits in the wealth management sector, these days we talk base points. Preventing UK firms from pasporting service wouldn't find much opposition among the other European players. In general the term it is true, but when it comes down to individual sectors not so much.

Fratton Fred · 15-08-2017 02:12PM

Jim2007 wrote: »

I'm not aware of anyone calling for the UK to be punished. That is unless point out the logical consequence of BREXIT is an issue for you.

not if that were the case, but it isn't.

Jim2007 wrote: »

Davis etc al, have already pointed out that in their application for WTO membership they are proposing to take over the same agreements as they had as an EU member But there is not indication that the other 120 member will accept it. Indeed both India and Australia have already indicated that the expect freer access to the UK labour market as part of any trade deal, so that is already a departure.

joining the WTO isn't a trade deal though and India can't stop it on its own.

Why would a third of the world not want the UK to join the WTO?

Jim2007 wrote: »

I hear that statement often, as if it was self evident, but it is not. Competition is tight for air carries and having one or two excluded would not necessarily be a bad thing for the those remaining. Likewise in the old days we talked about percentage profits in the wealth management sector, these days we talk base points. Preventing UK firms from pasporting service wouldn't find much opposition among the other European players. In general the term it is true, but when it comes down to individual sectors not so much.

do individual sectors get to negotiate on behalf of the eu?

steddyeddy · 15-08-2017 02:12PM

Leaving the EU and not being given full benefits of being in the EU can't be seen as punishment.

Jim2007 · 15-08-2017 02:14PM

solodeogloria wrote: »

Firstly it isn't true that there isn't a visa free travel scheme the UK won't fall into. The UK are already scheduled to be a part of ESTA which is a visa free waiver. It's like the American one. You apply expressing your intent to enter for up to 90 days. It costs €5. The UK will fall into ESTA in 2020. There's no point in this fearmongering.

The UK is not a member of Schengen or will it be able to avail of the EU/EEA/CH travel rights. As it currently there is no visa free agreement that UK citizens can avail of to enter either Schengen or the EU.

solodeogloria wrote: »

The CTA will be maintained. The UK are clear on this and will be publishing this tomorrow. Irish people will also keep free movement into the UK.

The CTA was accepted under a protocol to the treaty, as an agreement between two member states. Just because the UK wants it to continue does not mean the the EU will accept it. Whether that will stand or not will in the end come down to the border agreement.

solodeogloria wrote: »

Secondly - everyone needs to calm down. It's delusional to think that Brexit will result in anything other than a typical fudged deal. It won't be everything the UK wants or everything Europe wants.

You see that it the typical British attitude that some how it will work out.... that No really means I'm open to persuasion.... But the thing is that when Europeans say No, they really mean No.

Fratton Fred · 15-08-2017 02:23PM

Jim2007 wrote: »

You see that it the typical British attitude that some how it will work out.... that No really means I'm open to persuasion.... But the thing is that when Europeans say No, they really mean No.

so the British aren't European now?

They obviously mean no, unless the eu tells them to vote again, in which case they meant yes

oscarBravo · 15-08-2017 02:28PM

I'm mildly amused at the Express-esque huffing over business class travel.

An anecdote for you: several years ago I worked for a multinational that used to offer business class travel as standard when going abroad for meetings. It was decreed from on high that this was wasteful and unnecessary, and that all travel was to be economy class from then on.

The net result? Travel costs went up. There was enough travel happening that we had been able to negotiate rates for business class that brought the prices down to within a few percent of economy class, while still offering the flexibility to amend tickets at short notice. Having to stay an extra night is not at all unusual, which meant having to buy a brand new economy class ticket at a few hours' notice - and I'm sure everyone knows what that costs.

Fratton Fred · 15-08-2017 02:38PM

oscarBravo wrote: »

I'm mildly amused at the Express-esque huffing over business class travel.

An anecdote for you: several years ago I worked for a multinational that used to offer business class travel as standard when going abroad for meetings. It was decreed from on high that this was wasteful and unnecessary, and that all travel was to be economy class from then on.

The net result? Travel costs went up. There was enough travel happening that we had been able to negotiate rates for business class that brought the prices down to within a few percent of economy class, while still offering the flexibility to amend tickets at short notice. Having to stay an extra night is not at all unusual, which meant having to buy a brand new economy class ticket at a few hours' notice - and I'm sure everyone knows what that costs.

I know you don't like any critcism at all of the eu, but you have to admit, it is extremely wasteful.

even the most die hard europhile must cringe when it sees the eu packing up everything, sticking it all in to lorries and trotting off to Strasbourg.

steddyeddy · 15-08-2017 02:42PM

We don't need club analogies. We can use reality. Britain's economy didn't take off until becoming a member of the common market. Britain's economy benefited hugely from tariff free access to this market and passporting rights to services.

Now for some reason the UK (well England and Wales) have voted to leave this single market. This will mean they will have control over their borders at the expense of tariff free trade with the EU. Judging by Guy Verhofstadt's comments on cherry picking they will also lose passporting rights. The UK already enjoyed a special status within the EU as it kept the pound. I can't see them being granted special status out of the EU.

The areas in the UK (Northern Ireland and parts of England) will lose access to EU grants. The farmers (some of whom voted for this) will lose their grants and tariffs will be placed on their goods, services in the UK (thought to make up 60-80% of the UK's economy) will likely lose access to passporting rights in other countries and the UK will be leaving several regulatory bodies (and vice versa) such as the European Medicines Agency.

This is all choice. The reason why this is happening is because of a power play within the Tory party, a series of lies about the EU and a vote that delivered what is happening now.

This is not punishment. It's not punishment because loosing access to the perks of being in a single market was self imposed. The single market seeks to benefit its member states. In order to be a member you have to make some concessions like freedom of movement ect. The UK doesn't want to make this and doesn't get the perks.

If that explanation starved you of your analogy fix then here's one for you. The UK describing loss of EU perks upon leaving the single market as punishment is analogous to Ireland's lack of access to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations ASEAN as punishment.

Water John · 15-08-2017 02:42PM

Fratton, it's one of the prices of peace and harmony in Europe and so, value for money, even if daft.

steddyeddy · 15-08-2017 02:43PM

Fratton Fred wrote: »

I know you don't like any critcism at all of the eu, but you have to admit, it is extremely wasteful.

even the most die hard europhile must cringe when it sees the eu packing up everything, sticking it all in to lorries and trotting off to Strasbourg.

The EU is in need of change. No doubt about it but it won't improve by offering rosy terms to a member state that chooses to leave. Also the UK should have stayed and tried to influence change.

murphaph · 15-08-2017 02:46PM

Fratton Fred wrote: »

I know you don't like any critcism at all of the eu, but you have to admit, it is extremely wasteful.

even the most die hard europhile must cringe when it sees the eu packing up everything, sticking it all in to lorries and trotting off to Strasbourg.

Of course the Strasbourg shuffle is wasteful, but so is devolution in the UK....could just as easily rule everything from Westminster much more economically, but the natives wouldn't have it. Same goes for the French. We will hopefully see some sense prevail however and gently ease the role away from Strasbourg similar to how Germany eased the role of capital away from Bonn (hint: there's still loads of federal ministries in Bonn)

There is certainly waste in the EU but it costs like 1% of European GDP. It's surprisingly good value. People seem to think half their taxes are being spent on bureaucrats in Brussels.

http://ec.europa.eu/budget/explained/myths/myths_en.cfm

Water John · 15-08-2017 02:50PM

We have lots of quangos attached to the GFA. It goes with the territory of trying to let everyone have a stake. Politics and treaties are messy by their nature. It's the price of peace and democracy.

ancapailldorcha · 15-08-2017 02:56PM

Fratton Fred wrote: »

I know you don't like any critcism at all of the eu, but you have to admit, it is extremely wasteful.

Do you have any proof of this at all?

swampgas · 15-08-2017 03:00PM

Fratton Fred wrote: »

I know you don't like any critcism at all of the eu, but you have to admit, it is extremely wasteful.

even the most die hard europhile must cringe when it sees the eu packing up everything, sticking it all in to lorries and trotting off to Strasbourg.

It's a drop in the ocean in the context of the overall budgets involved. I would prefer if the Strasbourg / Brussels flip flop were eliminated, but it's not worth scrapping the EU or leaving the EU in protest.

You could say that funding the British Royal Family is extremely wasteful, yet it persists.

ancapailldorcha · 15-08-2017 03:05PM

swampgas wrote: »

You could say that funding the British Royal Family is extremely wasteful, yet it persists.

As much as I detest the Royals, they contribute more than they take.

steddyeddy · 15-08-2017 03:09PM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

As much as I detest the Royals, they contribute more than they take.

Is that the Royals or the palace and the regalia?

ancapailldorcha · 15-08-2017 03:13PM

steddyeddy wrote: »

Is that the Royals or the palace and the regalia?

I'm not sure but the Royals are a huge part of the British brand. Buckingham Palace is always mobbed with tourists. If it's a net loss, I'd expect it to be very small.

steddyeddy · 15-08-2017 03:15PM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I'm not sure but the Royals are a huge part of the British brand. Buckingham Palace is always mobbed with tourists. If it's a net loss, I'd expect it to be very small.

In fairness it's the business of the British I suppose. I have no problem with them.

Calina · 15-08-2017 03:16PM

steddyeddy wrote: »

The EU is in need of change. No doubt about it but it won't improve by offering rosy terms to a member state that chooses to leave. Also the UK should have stayed and tried to influence change.

The EU is always in need of change and is always evolving. This is so blatantly obvious that the screams about how it needs change are tedious. The organisation is a lot different now to what it was when it was founded, and what it was as new members came in, as new treaties were signed and as new legislative provisions arrive on stream.

It has never been stagnant and it has always been changing.

Calina · 15-08-2017 03:22PM

On the question of the royal family - and I really don't understand the attachment countries with monarchies have - there is an element of knowing the cost of stuff but not necessarily the value of it.

EU membership is a bit like that in some respects - the question no one is really answering clearly is how much better off the UK will be outside the EU although the economic modellers are implying that it wouldn't be and IIRC at least one Brexit supporter suggested that the UK might reach parity to now in about 30 years after Brexit.

But YMMV. Economic systems are not completely logical being peopled by humans which are not completely logical either.

Brexit discussion thread II

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