Irish Border and Brexit

First Up · 10-08-2017 07:30PM

Jim2007 wrote:

Hmmm, it might just be because we are able to trade in an undervalued currency and have dramatically increase our exports, thus earning badly needed revenues.

You think the Euro is a weaker currency than the old punt?

jm08 · 10-08-2017 10:20PM

Jim2007 wrote: »

Hmmm, it might just be because we are able to trade in an undervalued currency and have dramatically increase our exports, thus earning badly needed revenues.

As pointed out elsewhere, the punt we used to devalue the punt to remain competitive back then. It was quite a shock to the system when that option wasn't avail and interest rates went shooting up.

The problems of NI didn't spill over into the republic, we had no bombings, kidnappings or bank or post office hoists.

blanch152 · 10-08-2017 11:40PM

jm08 wrote: »

By allowing a stupid border to be erected again. The reason this island has been such a mess for most of the last 100 years is because of that border. The most prosperous time for the whole island when that border has been invisible (the last 20 years).

That completely ignores reality. Joining the Euro and opening our markets towards the continent have had a much bigger positive effect than the border with the North.

murphaph · 11-08-2017 04:52AM

jm08 wrote: »

As pointed out elsewhere, the punt we used to devalue the punt to remain competitive back then. It was quite a shock to the system when that option wasn't avail and interest rates went shooting up.

??

When did interest rates shoot up under the Euro?

My parents were paying over 17% APR at one stage on their mortgage in the 1980s. I've seen the statements from the building society.

If you have to devalue your currency you are probably mismanaging your economy. The Euro had taught us a bit of fiscal discipline.

11-08-2017 07:24AM

https://countrysquire.co.uk/2017/08/10/get-stuffed-eire/

jm08 · 11-08-2017 07:47AM

blanch152 wrote: »

That completely ignores reality. Joining the Euro and opening our markets towards the continent have had a much bigger positive effect than the border with the North.

And which would also have happened with a lot of American corporations investing into Ireland to get access to the EU. You wouldn't have them investing into ROI with such conflict on the island. And it was the removal of the conflict caused by the border that was the issue, not the actual border.

jm08 · 11-08-2017 07:56AM

murphaph wrote: »

??

When did interest rates shoot up under the Euro?

My parents were paying over 17% APR at one stage on their mortgage in the 1980s. I've seen the statements from the building society.

If you have to devalue your currency you are probably mismanaging your economy. The Euro had taught us a bit of fiscal discipline.

I personally know all about the interest rates in the 80s! They went up for the first time in a long time just after we entered the Euro (just about 1pc or so). It was a major shock at the time as interest rates had been going down for the previous decade.

blanch152 · 11-08-2017 08:31AM

jm08 wrote: »

And which would also have happened with a lot of American corporations investing into Ireland to get access to the EU. You wouldn't have them investing into ROI with such conflict on the island. And it was the removal of the conflict caused by the border that was the issue, not the actual border.

The conflict isn't returning, society has moved beyond the ideas of the 1960s and 1970s. Sure we still have DUP dinosaurs wishing they could ban homosexuality but we also have republican dinsoaurs wishing for glorious uprisings. Neither is going to happen, that time has passed.

It wasn't until July 1997 that we had the final ceasefire in Northern Ireland. Ireland was already growing strongly in the early 1990s thanks to the corrective measures imposed by Ray MacSharry. It is revisionist to claim that the credit for Ireland's growth should go to the IRA ceasefire/surrender/victory, whichever way you want to describe it.

knipex · 11-08-2017 08:38AM

jm08 wrote: »

I personally know all about the interest rates in the 80s! They went up for the first time in a long time just after we entered the Euro (just about 1pc or so). It was a major shock at the time as interest rates had been going down for the previous decade.

They had been going down because were joining the Euro. We had no choice but to try and merge our interest rates with the European average.

I don't remember them increasing after we joined the Euro but a quick search found the below as the average mortgage interest rates from 1975 to 2013.

It does show a 0.2% increase around the time we joined the euro..

source http://www.moneyguideireland.com/history-of-mortgage-rates-in-ireland.html

1975 11.25%
1976 12.5%
1977 13.95%
1978 14.15%
1979 14.15%
1980 14.15%
1981 16.25%
1982 16.25%
1983 13.0%
1984 11.75%
1985 13%
1986 12.5%
1987 12.5%
1988 9.25%
1989 11.4%
1990 12.37%
1991 11.95%
1992 13.99%
1993 13.99%
1994 7.49%
1995 7.00%
1996 6.75%
1997 6.90%
1998 5.85%
1999 5.60%
2000 6.09%
2001 6.09%
2002 4.70%
2003 4.20%
2004 3.49%
2005 3.65%
2006 4.86%
2007 5.46%
2008 5.86%
2009 4.16%
2010 4.02%
2011 4.42%
2012 4.33%
2013 4.38%

Jim2007 · 11-08-2017 08:42AM

jm08 wrote: »

As pointed out elsewhere, the punt we used to devalue the punt to remain competitive back then. It was quite a shock to the system when that option wasn't avail and interest rates went shooting up.

This is total nonsense, because the central bank does not have even remotely close to the amount of reserves necessary to defend a currency against the Euro. For example, in recent years Switzerland tried to at least peg the Franc to the Euro for the exact same reason. In the process it acquired Euro bonds equal to the deficit of the seven biggest Euro Group economies before it decided to abandon the effort. Now the SNB's resources dwarfs the CBI resources by a factor of about 5000 and it could not do it, so good luck with that kind of BS.

Jim2007 · 11-08-2017 08:55AM

First Up wrote: »

You think the Euro is a weaker currency than the old punt?

The past is not relevant, as Ireland has been a net exporter for decades and as with all other states in the position a new punt would be a strong currency. Private research reports from Credit Suisse conclude that a new Punt or DM would be very strong currencies.

The recent experience in Switzerland of trying to peg the Franc to the Euro shows that it is a very expensive exercise and even with their resources it became too expensive. Both German and Ireland benefit big time from the Euro, since they get to trade in what to them is an under valued currency at very little expense to their exchequers.

oscarBravo · 11-08-2017 09:00AM

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/if-uk-leaves-customs-union-a-customs-border-is-inevitable-1.3180460

A lot of discussion around “special status” has suggested that the North should remain within the Customs Union, which would allow free movement of goods on this island, with the customs border lying between the island of Ireland and Britain.

Apart from its political unacceptability to the unionist community, locating the customs barrier in the Irish Sea takes no account of the reality of the economy of Northern Ireland, whose import and export sectors are heavily integrated with Britain, to a far greater extent than any links with the Republic.

Though British chains, like Tesco and Debenhams, have a strong presence in the Republic, almost the entire retail and distribution sector in the North is integrated with Britain.

The Northern Ireland economy relies heavily on imported goods, three-quarters of these coming from Britain. The result is that there would be far more dislocation to the North’s internal economy from a customs border between Britain and the North than from one between the North and the Republic, as the Republic is a minority supplier to the North.

There are no happy outcomes to this Brexit debacle.

Chips Lovell · 11-08-2017 09:06AM

If the UK were to pursue the nuclear option and leave both the single market and customs union, resulting in the creation of a hard border; and if assorted Provo types started blowing up border posts, there would be a certain black irony in the fact that both would be offering the same excuses: that they aren't responsible for their own actions and that it's all someone else's fault.

It could be the beginning of a beautiful new friendship.

blanch152 · 11-08-2017 09:09AM

oscarBravo wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/if-uk-leaves-customs-union-a-customs-border-is-inevitable-1.3180460

There are no happy outcomes to this Brexit debacle.

That is one of the better articles I have read on the Brexit/border issue. Quite simply, on economic grounds, it is far more important for the North to have free trade with the rest of the UK than with the rest of this island. Neither solution is good for the North, but a trade barrier on the Irish Sea is worse. Them's the numbers.

knipex · 11-08-2017 09:14AM

oscarBravo wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/if-uk-leaves-customs-union-a-customs-border-is-inevitable-1.3180460

There are no happy outcomes to this Brexit debacle.

Someone actually writes the truth instead of fantasy..

Chips Lovell · 11-08-2017 09:14AM

blanch152 wrote: »

That is one of the better articles I have read on the Brexit/border issue. Quite simply, on economic grounds, it is far more important for the North to have free trade with the rest of the UK than with the rest of this island. Neither solution is good for the North, but a trade barrier on the Irish Sea is worse. Them's the numbers.

And, cross border the trade isn't the main issue for Ireland. It's what's coming from the rest of Britain and via Britain that's a much bigger issue:

While it would bring some economic benefits for the Republic, these would be relatively small. Most of our trade is with Britain rather than the North. In addition, the transit trade through the UK, involving much of our trade with outside world, means that wherever customs barriers are erected they are going to have serious negative consequences for Ireland.

jm08 · 11-08-2017 09:30AM

knipex wrote: »

They had been going down because were joining the Euro. We had no choice but to try and merge our interest rates with the European average.

I don't remember them increasing after we joined the Euro but a quick search found the below as the average mortgage interest rates from 1975 to 2013.

It does show a 0.2% increase around the time we joined the euro..

source http://www.moneyguideireland.com/history-of-mortgage-rates-in-ireland.html

1975 11.25%
1976 12.5%
1977 13.95%
1978 14.15%
1979 14.15%
1980 14.15%
1981 16.25%
1982 16.25%
1983 13.0%
1984 11.75%
1985 13%
1986 12.5%
1987 12.5%
1988 9.25%
1989 11.4%
1990 12.37%
1991 11.95%
1992 13.99%
1993 13.99%
1994 7.49%
1995 7.00%
1996 6.75%
1997 6.90%
1998 5.85%
1999 5.60%
2000 6.09%
2001 6.09%
2002 4.70%
2003 4.20%
2004 3.49%
2005 3.65%
2006 4.86%
2007 5.46%
2008 5.86%
2009 4.16%
2010 4.02%
2011 4.42%
2012 4.33%
2013 4.38%

It may seem small, but I do recall that mortgage repayments went up by about an average of 100 a month. Mine only went up by about 30.

jm08 · 11-08-2017 09:35AM

Jim2007 wrote: »

This is total nonsense, because the central bank does not have even remotely close to the amount of reserves necessary to defend a currency against the Euro. For example, in recent years Switzerland tried to at least peg the Franc to the Euro for the exact same reason. In the process it acquired Euro bonds equal to the deficit of the seven biggest Euro Group economies before it decided to abandon the effort. Now the SNB's resources dwarfs the CBI resources by a factor of about 5000 and it could not do it, so good luck with that kind of BS.

We're talking about the punt here, not the Euro.

Here is reference to punt being devalued.

Irish punt joins ERM casualties

THE IRISH punt was devalued by 10 per cent yesterday within the European exchange rate mechanism after Dublin called an emergency meeting of senior EC finance officials in Brussels, writes Alan Murdoch.The devaluation - the fourth reshuffling of the ERM in five months - came after the Irish government gave up its long fight to defend the currency against speculators. Similar attacks forced sterling and the Italian lira out of the ERM last autumn, although last night the Employment Minister, Ruairi Quinn, said the punt would remain within it.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/irish-punt-joins-erm-casualties-1481861.html

blanch152 · 11-08-2017 10:16AM

Jep Gambardella wrote: »

And, cross border the trade isn't the main issue for Ireland. It's what's coming from the rest of Britain and via Britain that's a much bigger issue:

I saw that as well.

What is clear is that a hard border is bad news economically (certainly in the short term), but a hard border on the Irish Sea would be worse for this island than a hard border between the North and South, because of the serious effects on the North.

In the longer term, it will all depend on how quickly our economy adjusts. If all the new office building in Dublin is filled with financial services workers, then we could recover quickly. Sadly, the North will suffer no matter what.

It is interesting also to consider the effects on retail here. Would the likes of Lidl, Aldi and Zara get a bigger boost while Debenhams, Tesco and M&S suffer?

First Up · 11-08-2017 10:43AM

blanch152 wrote:

What is clear is that a hard border is bad news economically (certainly in the short term), but a hard border on the Irish Sea would be worse for this island than a hard border between the North and South, because of the serious effects on the North.

A hard border on the Irish Sea would also mean a hard border between us and the Continental EU. Not acceptable.

Chips Lovell · 11-08-2017 10:49AM

blanch152 wrote: »

It is interesting also to consider the effects on retail here. Would the likes of Lidl, Aldi and Zara get a bigger boost while Debenhams, Tesco and M&S suffer?

I don't know enough about transport and supply chains to get a feel for it. But if I had to guess, I'd imagine we'd see an awful lot more shipping between Ireland and France rather than stuff being driven from the Continent, across Britain and then on to Ireland.

Chips Lovell · 11-08-2017 10:49AM

Another issue is, and I think it was mentioned earlier in the thread, is that if there is to be a hard border, there is a good possibility that it would be temporary, given that chance that the UK may reapply to join the EU or single market a few years down the line once the implications for it become apparent

knipex · 11-08-2017 11:03AM

First Up wrote: »

A hard border on the Irish Sea would also mean a hard border between us and the Continental EU. Not acceptable.

Yes, for all goods transported via the UK. Not for goods shipped direct.

As for this not being acceptable !!! Unless you can get the UK to change its mind re leaving the customs union then....

Lots of things are not like and we woudl love to change or stop, dieing, getting old, taxes etc but there is nothing we can do about it..

solodeogloria · 11-08-2017 11:32AM

knipex wrote: »

Yes, for all goods transported via the UK. Not for goods shipped direct.

As for this not being acceptable !!! Unless you can get the UK to change its mind re leaving the customs union then....

Lots of things are not like and we woudl love to change or stop, dieing, getting old, taxes etc but there is nothing we can do about it..

Good afternoon!

Or, alternatively the EU and the UK could discuss an alternative customs arrangement. This is still up for discussion in the negotiations. The reason why the UK opposes membership of the EU Customs Union is because it restricts the UK coming up with its own free trade agreements.

It needs to be stressed again. It isn't accurate to stress that the outcome of the Brexit negotiations are purely down to the UK's stance. They are also down to the EU's response to what Britain is seeking.

That is the type of balance that is missing from this thread so far. The reason it is missing is because posters are unwilling to subject the EU to any accountability.

It is in the EU's interest to campaign for the interests of it's member states. Including Ireland.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

knipex · 11-08-2017 11:42AM

solodeogloria wrote: »

Good afternoon!

Or, alternatively the EU and the UK could discuss an alternative customs arrangement. This is still up for discussion in the negotiations. The reason why the UK opposes membership of the EU Customs Union is because it restricts the UK coming up with its own free trade agreements.

It needs to be stressed again. It isn't accurate to stress that the outcome of the Brexit negotiations are purely down to the UK's stance. They are also down to the EU's response to what Britain is seeking.

That is the type of balance that is missing from this thread so far. The reason it is missing is because posters are unwilling to subject the EU to any accountability.

It is in the EU's interest to campaign for the interests of it's member states. Including Ireland.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

Seriously ???

Lets leave aside the ECJ and the free movement issue just for a second.

You want to be in a customs union but you want to be able to import stuff to your market from where ever you want. Stuff that does not meet EU guidelines of safety or quality. Then you don't want a border so all that stuff you imported can now come across into the rest of the EU and be sold bypassing all the EU quality safety regulations ? All their customs and excise regulation?

Just because the UK wants ??

Do you not see the issue ??

Did you not listen to anyone before the referendum who tried to explain it to you ?

First Up · 11-08-2017 11:51AM

knipex wrote:

Yes, for all goods transported via the UK. Not for goods shipped direct.

You miss my point. If goods from the UK cross the Irish border without restriction, they can be transported elsewhere in the EU via an Irish port.

These could be goods of UK origin, or goods imported from elsewhere under whatever trade terms the UK agrees with third countries. They can be brought into ROI and then re-packed and re-loaded before being shipped to elsewhere in the Single Market.

If Ireland is not policing its EU border, then others will do it for us.

solodeogloria · 11-08-2017 11:54AM

knipex wrote: »

Seriously ???

Lets leave aside the ECJ and the free movement issue just for a second.

You want to be in a customs union but you want to be able to import stuff to your market from where ever you want. Stuff that does not meet EU guidelines of safety or quality. Then you don't want a border so all that stuff you imported can now come across into the rest of the EU and be sold bypassing all the EU quality safety regulations ? All their customs and excise regulation?

Just because the UK wants ??

Do you not see the issue ??

Did you not listen to anyone before the referendum who tried to explain it to you ?

Good afternoon!

I voted remain in the referendum. I'm now supportive of implementing Brexit and getting on with the best outcome possible.

There was obviously no realistic prospect of the UK remaining subject to the European Court of Justice. The UK have proposed two good solutions in the talks before such as an impartial ombudsman or a court of joint arbitration to deal with disputes.

I'm happy with "rules of origin" rules to be applied to the UK after Brexit for items that have originated outside of the UK. There are flexible ways by which you can enforce these rules though. I'm hoping for a good discussion on them. The EU also have implied that there are ways to get goods from Ireland into continental Europe through fast track customs because it originated in the single market. There's every possibility for this, or for Irish registered vehicles to progress through Calais with ease. Border frontiers like these should be discussed. I'd argue the same arrangement should exist at Dover and at Folkestone. Such flexibility will require compromises on both sides.

My basic point is that the UK may not get everything it wants, that's a given. Negotiations involve concessions at some point. Irrespective, of what the EU may or may not give to the UK, the EU has an obligation to Ireland as its member state. If what the EU suggests harms Ireland, then there is good ground for Irish people being able to say that the EU hasn't acted in its interests.

I see that there are challenges. But I don't accept the position that the EU cannot be flexible in any way. Indeed, as an Irish person I would say it must in the interests of Ireland as its member state.

The bottom line is that from Ireland's point of view, we need to be willing to work with the UK for a good outcome. It's a bit disappointing for me as an Irish person who has a strong connection with the UK to see that the Irish people are really only fair weather friends of the UK despite the strides that have been made in recent years.

We should be rooting for the best deal in Ireland's interests and holding both parties in the discussion to account.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

knipex · 11-08-2017 12:28PM

solodeogloria wrote: »

Good afternoon!

I voted remain in the referendum. I'm now supportive of implementing Brexit and getting on with the best outcome possible.

There was obviously no realistic prospect of the UK remaining subject to the European Court of Justice. The UK have proposed two good solutions in the talks before such as an impartial ombudsman or a court of joint arbitration to deal with disputes.

I'm happy with "rules of origin" rules to be applied to the UK after Brexit for items that have originated outside of the UK. There are flexible ways by which you can enforce these rules though. I'm hoping for a good discussion on them. The EU also have implied that there are ways to get goods from Ireland into continental Europe through fast track customs because it originated in the single market. There's every possibility for this, or for Irish registered vehicles to progress through Calais with ease. Border frontiers like these should be discussed. I'd argue the same arrangement should exist at Dover and at Folkestone. Such flexibility will require compromises on both sides.

My basic point is that the UK may not get everything it wants, that's a given. Negotiations involve concessions at some point. Irrespective, of what the EU may or may not give to the UK, the EU has an obligation to Ireland as its member state. If what the EU suggests harms Ireland, then there is good ground for Irish people being able to say that the EU hasn't acted in its interests.

I see that there are challenges. But I don't accept the position that the EU cannot be flexible in any way. Indeed, as an Irish person I would say it must in the interests of Ireland as its member state.

The bottom line is that from Ireland's point of view, we need to be willing to work with the UK for a good outcome. It's a bit disappointing for me as an Irish person who has a strong connection with the UK to see that the Irish people are really only fair weather friends of the UK despite the strides that have been made in recent years.

We should be rooting for the best deal in Ireland's interests and holding both parties in the discussion to account.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

I can assure you were are giving as much if not more consideration to the UK as the UK did to Ireland when it voted out..

J Mysterio · 11-08-2017 12:31PM

knipex wrote: »

I can assure you were are giving as much if not more consideration to the UK as the UK did to Ireland when it voted out..

Well said.

murphaph · 11-08-2017 12:34PM

First Up wrote: »

You miss my point. If goods from the UK cross the Irish border without restriction, they can be transported elsewhere in the EU via an Irish port.

These could be goods of UK origin, or goods imported from elsewhere under whatever trade terms the UK agrees with third countries. They can be brought into ROI and then re-packed and re-loaded before being shipped to elsewhere in the Single Market.

If Ireland is not policing its EU border, then others will do it for us.

Yep and rightly so. I Poland decided to turn a blind eye to food coming across its external border I'm quite sure Germany and the Czech Republic would impose these checks too.

Irish Border and Brexit

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