Irish Border and Brexit

FrancieBrady · 09-08-2017 08:08AM

feargale wrote: »

Can you not see your own contradictions?

Incentivising? You're going the wrong way about that if you keep banging on about it.

P.S. And I only speak of getting their backs up in the context of your need to persuade them.

There is no contradiction. This was always supposed to come to this. A discussion of a UI and a border poll.

I am not interested in saving the DUP blushes on this, because the consequences threatens us all.
There are those who think those who identify as Irish should capitulate to unionist footdragging because they are either too lazy, closet unionists or who cannot swallow any achievement by nationalists.
They should be sidelined for the greater good too.

As we have seen, it is not particularly difficult to get some unionist backs up. But it is really only insecure politicians playing to a minority gallery. Most unionists are pragmatists in my experience. The much threatened armageddon (the rhetoric that gets the DUP elected) over many things has never materialised.

jm08 · 09-08-2017 08:15AM

Jim2007 wrote: »

By the same token, why are SF so adamant that they need. It is not as if it is widely spoke... Two parties arguing over a dead language!

Its not just Sinn Fein though that supports an Irish Language Act. The SDLP also do along with all the political parties in the Republic. Its all about pariety of esteem. Both Scotland & Wales have minority language acts - in fact, the Welsh language has seen a resurgence over the last 20/30 years where Welsh people are proud to speak the language.

FrancieBrady · 09-08-2017 08:24AM

jm08 wrote: »

Its not just Sinn Fein though that supports an Irish Language Act. The SDLP also do along with all the political parties in the Republic. Its all about pariety of esteem. Both Scotland & Wales have minority language acts - in fact, the Welsh language has seen a resurgence over the last 20/30 years where Welsh people are proud to speak the language.

Indeed. It is a silly if not ridiculous argument to suggest an Act is only for those who 'speak' the language.

I don't want to live like a celt but I want everything we have of them to be thoroughly preserved for future generations. An Irish language act will actually increase the number speaking it, thereby enriching an already rich Irish culture. I am proud that I can partly speak it and understand it and can interact with parts of my history.
I know that embarasses some, but then that is how it died out as the main language, our ancestors were made to feel embarrassed to speak it. it became a sign of the 'savage Irishman or woman'.
That inferiority has hung around to this day obviously.

Charles Babbage · 09-08-2017 08:27AM

Jim2007 wrote: »

By the same token, why are SF so adamant that they need. It is not as if it is widely spoke... Two parties arguing over a dead language!

I wonder if that 'death' has anything to do with colonial discrimination?

Chips Lovell · 09-08-2017 08:37AM

Folks,
This thread isn't about the Language Act. There's the Stormont negotiations thread for that. This is about the Border 'n' Brexit.

Red_Wake · 09-08-2017 09:01AM

Mods, move this to another thread if inappropriate, but given the possibility of Brexit causing violence again, I think it's relevant.

A man shot [four times] in Derry[for our nationalist friends]/Londonderry[for our unionist friends].

http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/crime/man-shot-four-times-in-brutal-and-horrific-attack-36014354.html ;

Unclear which paramilitary force carried it out.

Is this an early warning of the potential consequences of Brexit?

Charles Babbage · 09-08-2017 09:12AM

The GFA reflected a process which reflected that there were two communities in the North and that it should be not just be run for the benefit of unionists alone. Certain arrangements were codified in the agreement, but above all the concept of consensus and seeking agreement on things.
Brexit has so far been run entirely in contravention of these principles. Any increase in difficulty in crossing the border for any person, vehicle or animal is entirely against the entire process sine the mid 80s which gas brought peace. It is rather disturbing that some here advocating this just as a form of Shinner baiting, despite the adverse consequences both for the economy and peace.

murphaph · 09-08-2017 10:29AM

Nobody is advocating a hard border.

We are saying that as an EU member we have certain obligations when it comes to external EU borders (and yes, we already have one-our sea border). We may simply have no alternative to manning the border in some shape or form. The alternative could be to leave the EU. I doubt many would support that to maintain an open border with a failing economy (the UK).

The UK side will probably not stick customs men on the border because certain criminals would attempt to murder them. They'll come up with some fudge I believe that will involve spot checks on flights and ferries landing in GB from NI. There will be a token "high tech" effort made to secure their customs border but smuggling will be rife and essentially uncontrolled from the UK side. Again, more customs spot checks on NI ferries can be expected.

Jim2007 · 09-08-2017 11:47AM

Charles Babbage wrote: »

It is rather disturbing that some here advocating this just as a form of Shinner baiting, despite the adverse consequences both for the economy and peace.

It is not about SF or republicanism for that mater. It is about dealing with the an unpleasant reality. But there is no doubt in my mind that if people are forced to choose been the EU and a loss of economic well being plus paying of the North, they will choose the EU. And where do you go then????

FrancieBrady · 09-08-2017 12:04PM

Jim2007 wrote: »

It is not about SF or republicanism for that mater. It is about dealing with the an unpleasant reality. But there is no doubt in my mind that if people are forced to choose been the EU and a loss of economic well being plus paying of the North, they will choose the EU. And where do you go then????

We have been sidetracked by the usual petulance that follows anyone who mentions unification.
The point is that we should be dealing with a range of alternatives before going anywhere near a hard border.

oscarBravo · 09-08-2017 12:09PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

We have been sidetracked by the usual petulance that follows anyone who mentions unification.
The point is that we should be dealing with a range of alternatives before going anywhere near a hard border.

That's one point, sure. Another point, which you don't seem to want to engage with, is that we need to have a solution figured out by March 2019, less than a year and a half from now. If you think unification is going to happen in that timeframe, you'll have to forgive the rest of us for suspecting that you're not approaching the problem in a spirit of realism.

Chips Lovell · 09-08-2017 12:56PM

I don't think unification with Northern Ireland is, in any way, a realistic solution. It's simply replacing one problematic issue (a possible post-Hard Brexit border) with a monumentally larger one (assuming responsibility for Northern Ireland).

It's a classic frying pan - fire situation.

blanch152 · 09-08-2017 02:22PM

tomwaterford wrote: »

Surly it stands to logic,if you put a hard border with police and customs on it

Your giving dissident standing targets to shoot at??
There ambition is to make the north ungovernable/hostile in the short term

There'll be no soldiers to protect them,as SF won't ever agree to it
All it'll take is one young lad to be killed in a shoot out (and it will happen eventually) to cause absolute political turmoil,and the ranks to dwell on dissident??

Surely we can deal with the dissidents in the same way that advocates of unity suggest we deal with unionist violence in the event of unity?

I am very certain that the popular tolerance of violence for political ends is much much lower than it was in the 1970s.

tomwaterford · 09-08-2017 02:32PM

blanch152 wrote: »

Surely we can deal with the dissidents in the same way that advocates of unity suggest we deal with unionist violence in the event of unity?

By creating easy targets for them ??

blanch152 · 09-08-2017 02:39PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Here is the scenario as I see it. I can actually see the start of this happening here, right now.

You will have protests about a hard border, with ordinary people from the communities directly affected. They will get more strident as we proceed towards a border.
The border is established and customs people are sent there.

Dissidents take advantage and attack a customs post (see our own history for examples of this)
We have the usual round of condemnations from the usual people who express their horror and shock (even though they knew this would likely happen)

I don't see the above as likely to happen. However, even if it did, the consequential developments you outline are based on 1970s society, not that of today.

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Authorities are forced to fortify the posts and all the seeds are sown. Nationalists are enflamed and protests rise. The border is now NOT about the UK and the EU but a manifestation of the cyclical problem on this island.

Unionists allying themselves with Britain attack nationalists (see history again) and we start the whole sorry spiral again.

*We may skip the callous sending of customs people to their deaths or injury and fortify from the start. Accelerating the process.

I am interested in what others think will happen.

I have much more faith in the Irish and British people that they will not tolerate a return of violence. Yes, a few people like to argue that violence will inevitably return on internet discussion sites, yet the reality is that the tolerance of such terrorist violence is no longer present among the population at large. A couple of possibilities:

(1) Following the initial attack on the customs post, condemnation from every political party. Sinn Fein leader Gerry Adams refuses to condemn the attack, making some mealy-mouthed excuse that it was to be expected as the two governments failed to prevent the creation of an environment for conflict. Immediate revulsion across the political, media and societal spectrum at his remarks with support for SF plummeting to lows not seen since the 1980s. Following a second attack we see further calls from rational politicians for restraint and Adam's humiliating departure as leader to be replaced by moderate leader who says the imposition of border controls is not a sufficient reason for any normal human being to resort to violence.

(2) Following the initial attack on the customs post, cross-party support across both islands including SF to a statement that "the imposition of border controls is not a sufficient reason for any normal human being to resort to violence" with strident calls for the perpetrators to be brought to justice. Overwhelming public support for this approach and solidarity marches with huge attendances in Dublin and Belfast for the victims of the violence. No repeat of the attacks as the futility in the face of such public anger from the vast majority of people is recognized.

FrancieBrady · 09-08-2017 03:07PM

oscarBravo wrote: »

That's one point, sure. Another point, which you don't seem to want to engage with, is that we need to have a solution figured out by March 2019, less than a year and a half from now. If you think unification is going to happen in that timeframe, you'll have to forgive the rest of us for suspecting that you're not approaching the problem in a spirit of realism.

Again you should try reading posts with a view to taking on board what they are saying. I have already said that starting a transparent and real discussion could be enough to stall conflict.

FrancieBrady · 09-08-2017 03:14PM

blanch152 wrote: »

I don't see the above as likely to happen. However, even if it did, the consequential developments you outline are based on 1970s society, not that of today.

I have much more faith in the Irish and British people that they will not tolerate a return of violence. Yes, a few people like to argue that violence will inevitably return on internet discussion sites, yet the reality is that the tolerance of such terrorist violence is no longer present among the population at large. A couple of possibilities:

(1) Following the initial attack on the customs post, condemnation from every political party. Sinn Fein leader Gerry Adams refuses to condemn the attack, making some mealy-mouthed excuse that it was to be expected as the two governments failed to prevent the creation of an environment for conflict. Immediate revulsion across the political, media and societal spectrum at his remarks with support for SF plummeting to lows not seen since the 1980s. Following a second attack we see further calls from rational politicians for restraint and Adam's humiliating departure as leader to be replaced by moderate leader who says the imposition of border controls is not a sufficient reason for any normal human being to resort to violence.

And with a healthy but useless round of condemnation out of the way...what next?

What will happen is the dissidents gain support (SF have no influence there, so are redundant to this conversation) and draw in loyalists and it becomes about partition...not an EU border. Happening already if you listen locally.

(2) Following the initial attack on the customs post, cross-party support across both islands including SF to a statement that "the imposition of border controls is not a sufficient reason for any normal human being to resort to violence" with strident calls for the perpetrators to be brought to justice. Overwhelming public support for this approach and solidarity marches with huge attendances in Dublin and Belfast for the victims of the violence. No repeat of the attacks as the futility in the face of such public anger from the vast majority of people is recognized.

Like the 'Peace People' for a new millennium? If it becomes about partition then that will not work. It never has.

oscarBravo · 09-08-2017 03:30PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Again you should try reading posts with a view to taking on board what they are saying. I have already said that starting a transparent and real discussion could be enough to stall conflict.

But we're not talking about stalling conflict; most of us aren't hung up on conflict to the exclusion of all else. We're talking about the arrangements for a border between the UK and the EU, which will have to be agreed and ready to implement in less than a year and a half.

"Starting a transparent and real discussion" is, with respect, what I'm talking about when I describe your proposals as hand-waving.

FrancieBrady · 09-08-2017 03:36PM

oscarBravo wrote: »

But we're not talking about stalling conflict; most of us aren't hung up on conflict to the exclusion of all else. We're talking about the arrangements for a border between the UK and the EU, which will have to be agreed and ready to implement in less than a year and a half.

"Starting a transparent and real discussion" is, with respect, what I'm talking about when I describe your proposals as hand-waving.

Well at the least you are honest about not caring.
Can we ignore your hand waving and hollow shock and regret when conflict does break out?

paul2013 · 09-08-2017 03:37PM

Question for you all, please don't ban me from the thread stating this.

Theresa May, David Cameron and all the rest of the Tories and the DUP are driving the UK to the cliffs in Dover and NI to the wall of the North Atlantic. The U.K. are shouting that they will be making their own trade agreements with the likes of the USA. While Trump is going around shouting "Make America great again" and wants to access the EU markets to ship American products into Europe. While the UK is going to be very much isolated from the biggest markets in the world. While China is looking towards Ireland and NZ and Australia to feed its growing population.

The U.K. is in far a very very rough start as an independent trade dealer

murphaph · 09-08-2017 03:38PM

What sort of people are saying these things "locally" Francie?

oscarBravo · 09-08-2017 03:44PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Well at the least you are honest about not caring.

I don't recall saying that I don't care... I'm not even sure what it is I allegedly don't care about.

Can we ignore your hand waving and hollow shock and regret when conflict does break out?

Well, if that happens I'll propose that we start a transparent and real discussion. That'll sort 'em out.

FrancieBrady · 09-08-2017 03:48PM

murphaph wrote: »

What sort of people are saying these things "locally" Francie?

The people on the No Border protests. And if you talk to people along the border - they fully recognise the dangers and inevitabilities.

FrancieBrady · 09-08-2017 03:51PM

oscarBravo wrote: »

I don't recall saying that I don't care... I'm not even sure what it is I allegedly don't care about.

It is very easy to detect people who do 'care'. They are NOT the people who just lazily accept that a hard border is inevitable and we can do nothing about it. They are NOT the people who climb up onto the moral high ground either to once again engage in blaming one side of a community.

kerry cow · 09-08-2017 04:05PM

Are people dopes or what .the UK is leaving the euro zone and a hard border will have to be in place to protect the European zone .NI is part of the UK and has to be patrolled.
Like it or not .
Personally I would wish a all Ireland and roam free .
Terrorism from outside the cat/prod ,community is a bigger danger than us Christians scrabbling among our selves .
It's till we all realise both north and south how much we have in common and cut from the same cloth and worried about the bigger treath to our island from outside.
If we could only all put together .

blanch152 · 09-08-2017 05:04PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Like the 'Peace People' for a new millennium? If it becomes about partition then that will not work. It never has.

Who will the dissidents gain support from? The old men who remember the 1960s?

FrancieBrady · 09-08-2017 05:25PM

blanch152 wrote: »

Who will the dissidents gain support from? The old men who remember the 1960s?

The community that is affected by partition and a hard border.
The issue that hasn't gone away even though some think it has. The GFA was not and was never designed to be a final solution.

You can live in denial about that if you wish but that is foolhardy and a downright callous disregard.

blanch152 · 09-08-2017 05:27PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The community that is affected by partition and a hard border.
The issue that hasn't gone away even though some think it has. The GFA was not and was never designed to be a final solution.

You can live in denial about that if you wish but that is foolhardy and a downright callous disregard.

Well, I don't believe that the outward-looking interconnected world of 2017 is as likely to follow men of violence as the insular unconnected parochial village of 1969.

Those communities you speak of, they just don't think like that any more.

FrancieBrady · 09-08-2017 05:37PM

blanch152 wrote: »

Well, I don't believe that the outward-looking interconnected world of 2017 is as likely to follow men of violence as the insular unconnected parochial village of 1969.

Those communities you speak of, they just don't think like that any more.

They are proposing to erect a 'border' or a seal. Outward looking???

tomwaterford · 09-08-2017 05:50PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

They are proposing to erect a 'border' or a seal. Outward looking???

Tbf the 6 counties voted no to brexit

So it's obvious they have no place in the UK when there not politically compatible

Noone wants a border on Ireland...dup have been caught campaigning for a brexit (still couldn't convince their electorate)

,thinking it would never happen and now are too far from any reasonable area of commercial activity in the UK to be competitive and the economy in the north needs the south to survive (much more than the south needs the north)....

There dammed as there tied so idiotically to unionism that their tradional arguments (around econmy/religion) are dead in the water and there's not enough leadership to forge new sane reasonings to stay in UK

Irish Border and Brexit

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