Irish Border and Brexit

Jep Gambardella wrote: »

In some ways there isn't a lot we can do since they're the ones who want to leave the EU and we're not forcing them to.

The official British position is a bit of a paradox. One of their main reasons for leaving was to control their own borders. Except for the one land border that they have, where they don't really want a border, or not much of a one at least.

Neither the British government, nor the British voter, has really thought this one through.

None of them has thought anything really through. That is the main problem and despite the fact that the real problems are one after another emerge on the surface and call for solutions, they still appear to have no clue at all where to begin with and how to solve it in a way where every side can live with it. This is how they are just making it all worse and time is running out for them.

FrancieBrady wrote: »

This topic has crept into another thread on northern Ireland but this really concerns us all.

Is Coveney right to do what he did at this stage and what should Dublin's position be on this?

My own opinion is that we should, right from the get go, be very very clear that we will not tolerate or operate a hard or soft border on the island.

The move would antagonise the Democratic Unionist Party, which is propping up the Conservative government and is at loggerheads with Sinn Fein over a power-sharing deal in Belfast. The DUP would object to any implication that Northern Ireland was not being treated as part of the UK. Simon Coveney, the Irish foreign minister, told his European counterparts that the republic “cannot and will not” accept the return of a hard border after Brexit and specifically took aim at the idea of solving the problem using technology. A Whitehall source said: “There is a new taoiseach and a new foreign minister and they’re stamping their authority. We’re being as positive as we can but it’s true to say that their attitude has hardened.”

The issue of the 310-mile Irish border has been thrown into sharp relief by Mrs May’s commitment to leave the customs union after Brexit, as it would become a potential smuggling route. Neither government wants a situation that would be reminiscent of the checkpoints that operated during the Troubles. In February The Times reported that Irish officials were working on technical solutions including the use of surveillance cameras.

In a significant departure from that position, Mr Coveney told a meeting of EU foreign affairs ministers: “What we do not want to pretend is that we can solve the problems of the border on the island of Ireland through technical solutions like cameras and pre-registration and so on. That is not going to work.

“Any barrier or border on the island of Ireland in my view risks undermining a very hard-won peace process and all of the parties in Northern Ireland, whether they are unionist or nationalist, recognise that we want to keep the free movement of people and goods and services and livelihoods.”

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/irish-want-sea-border-with-uk-after-brexit-lvb6n35fq?t=ie

There are some ways in theory how to deal with that, but neither of those I have in mind seem to be that realistical as that they would be either considered or realised.

1. The UK dismisses NI from her being a constitutional part

2. Only GB leaves the customs union and loses access to the single market (like the diehard Brexiteers like to have it but the DUP doesn´t), setting up some special agreement that allows NI to remain within the customs Union in a semi and co-operative construct together with the Republic of Ireland and allowing NI access to the single market. That of course requires the consent of the EU and her member states.

3. The Suggestion of the Irish govt is taken on and checks are limited to ports and Airports with both, UK and Republic of Ireland facilitating the sources for implementation.

4. The present UK govt collapses, a snap GE is to be Held and the DUP is dismissed from her Need to Support the present UK govt and with a GE result that votes the Tories out of power, making it more likely that a Labour govt takes over, all is about to reset and start again.

5. In the event of a collaps of the present UK govt and a different new govt that allows to give the UK electorate a second chance to vote in a BrexitRef2 and with a different result to last years, making it likely that the UK withdraws from leaving the EU, the matter of a hard border in Ireland would become irrelevant again.

6. The present UK PM is forced to resign and steps down after becoming the victim of a plot by her own Party and another diehard Tory takes over from her, seeking to get rid of the DUP Support or simply ignoring them, with the Instrument of reinstating direct rule over NI, then decide on a hard border in order to secure the demands of a hard Brexit, the border is reistalled and neither DUP nor the Irish govt could do anything against it. That´s because as long as NI remains part of the UK, it is the territory of the UK and on such matter, the UK govt can decide by herself whether or not she reistalls a hard border with everything that is to be facilitated along that border.  

Whatever any of these theoretical considerations might or rather might not become reality, I really can´t say. It´s all theory and it´s hard to predict the near future. However, what is apparent is that Mrs May as a PM is weak, becoming more weak by losing support within her own party and thus within the parliamentary conservative party in the Commons and her chances of staying on as PM beyond this year are melting down. It is just a question of time when the plotters are going to overthrow her, but not whether they will do it. That leaves it all open regarding what will come up next.

FrancieBrady wrote: »

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

Tail wagging the dog.  Ideally an Irish sea border would make life easier, but the DUP are in charge of the show now.

The British will still have to implement some port checks in any case because they'll be none on our northern border.

The arrangement with the DUP will not survive another election. ANd there will be one sooner or later in the Brexit process.
And them being in a UK government should not prevent us working with our EU partners to pressure the UK to implement the simplest solution to this - an Irish sea border.
For once unionism should be made to lie in the bed (and other than a dent in pride, it represents the simplest, least economically damaging solution for them too) it has made for itself.

I haven´t read anything about how the EU looks at that suggestion.

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Thomas__ wrote: »

I haven´t read anything about how the EU looks at that suggestion.

I don't have any faith in FG's willingness or ability to stand up for us but we should be insisting as the member of the EU that our solution become the official EU one.

At least Coveney has fired a shot across the bows.

I find the idea of the sea border a good solution. The reaction by the DUP on this proposal speaks for themselves and shows again that they´re often against everything but can´t provide an alternative one themselves.

Jep Gambardella wrote: »

The other thing to bear in mind is that while, officially, the status of the border (along with exit bill and citizens rights) is part of the first stage of negotiations, it may not be resolved until later, because a lot depends on what kind of Brexit the British ultimately go for - whether they stay in the EEA or if there's a customs union or if there's no deal at all.

With the present UK govt in charge and he diehard Brexiteers in charge of the Tory Party, it´s clear to me where they are heading. They have but only one aim and that is to crash out of the EU even if that means with no deal at all. The moderate Tories have no control over the hard Brexiteers and this is where the real problem is. Otherwise the negotiations had went a bit more swift and with some results during the past two weeks. Nothing has really achieved yet and it´s all on the side of the UK govt as they change their opinions and proposals every nearly every day. That makes it difficult to deal with anything and let alone to say to settle.

Jep Gambardella wrote: »

Thomas__ wrote: »

With the present UK govt in charge and he diehard Brexiteers in charge of the Tory Party, it´s clear to me where they are heading.

Pre-election, yes, I definitely think an exit without any deal was quite possible. Post-election, I think it's less likely. Sooner or later, the government there will have start dealing with the realistic options are as opposed to just hand waving. Given their slim majority, moderate Tories could sabotage any bid for a proper hard Brexit.

They could, yes, whether they´ll do is another thing and I am waiting to see the downfall of Mrs May as PM being due and happening in autumn this year. I don´t expect anything else from this present UK govt than worsening the mess they already are in. It might be all be done on purpose to bring her down, that they can´t make anything progressing in this going negotiation process.