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2017 UK General Election - 8th June

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Comments

  • #1862
    Thomas__
    Closed Accounts Posts: 618 ✭✭✭Thomas__


    FrancieBrady wrote: »
    Thomas__ wrote: »
    Pity the Shinners will not take their 7 seats in the Commons to defeat a Tory / DUP govt in the making. The only two parties in NI who won seats in the Commons are the most stubborn ones. I´m inclined to say "as usual", but one can´t help it, that´s the Northerners voting as they please.

    I doubt they will sell out on a principle to be king makers for a parliament that will only last a while in all likelihood.

    The tories wouldn't necessarily deal with SF anyhow, with others available to shore them up. Much like our own democratic stalwarts. :)

    I see it rather the other way round, the Shinners would not by any chance deal with the Tories, except in order to twart them from forming a new govt.:D


  • #1863
    Fratton Fred
    Closed Accounts Posts: 26,567 ✭✭✭✭Fratton Fred


    listermint wrote: »
    Is it bizarre,?

    It's very evident the Scottish electorate is easily led by the media the same thing happened with the independence vote , only strong local campaigning that time won a better portion of the vote.

    But they appear to really digest what the media are putting out . Very pro Tory and scaring people off the Labour party.

    I watched the BBC election debate from Edinburgh the other night and I was surprised at the comments made to Nicola Sturgeon. She made education her stand point and the feeling was education in scotland was getting worse. There were also comments about how it is now harder for Scots to get university places, because the universities want foreign students that they can charge top dollar for, so the "Free university places" wasn't as popular as Nicole Sturgeon seemed to think. There were also a lot of people who seemed fed up with the constant talk of independence.

    Scotland over the years has always had a strong conservative base. If you look at the Thatcher years, her first two elections showed Scotland to be very Conservative. The switch to the SNP is a relatively late occurrence and could easily be attributable to the general feeling of discontent among British voters.

    This election could just be Scotland going back to their normal voting patterns and the SNP going back to being far less dominant.


  • #1864
    Thomas__
    Closed Accounts Posts: 618 ✭✭✭Thomas__


    Peregrinus wrote: »
    Thomas__ wrote: »
    You don´t know what the circumstances will be in 2018/19 and what the result of the Brexit negotiation will be. The second Indy Ref is not off the table, it is still an Option and in case things deteriorate in the negotiations, this Option might become more attractive once again. If LAB, SNP and LibDem would form a coalition to avoid another Tory govt, well, then it would be a bit more difficult for her to call for a second IndyRef given the SNP is part of a UK govt. and works for either a better deal with the EU or even (in case Mr Corbyn would have second thoughts on Brexit) call for a second Brexit Ref based on the final offer from the EU.
    Lab, SNP and LibDem combined are a long way off being able to form an alternative government or keep the Tories out. Between them they have only 309 seats, as against 316 for the Tories, for 326 for the Tories plus DUP.  Plus, the Lib Dems are committed to not going into coalition with anybody; they tried it before and it didn't end well.

    The only feasible government in the Parliament just elected is one centred on the Tories, and that's what we're going to have, at least in the first instance. It remains to be seen how long it will last; British political culture does not smile upon minority governments; without the comforting security of a single-party majority government they feel acute existential anxiety.

    I don´t expect to see Corbyn as the next PM and seeing as it´s almost done (just two seats yet to come in), the Tories will have to offer the DUPers for getting them into a coalition and I just presume that this won´t be good for NI with them die-hard Unionists being part of a UK govt. But there´s no other Party around they could have as a partner.

    Either way, the coming weeks (or even months) will be difficult enough to form a new govt by that result.


  • #1865
    FrancieBrady
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,678 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Thomas__ wrote: »
    I see it rather the other way round, the Shinners would not by any chance deal with the Tories, except in order to twart them from forming a new govt.:D

    TBH SF won't and have never taken their seats. So SF won't be dealing with anyone. If you are looking for a consistent policy, look no further.

    When you get into bed with the likes of the DUP just to have power...that is inconsistency.


  • #1866
    Fratton Fred
    Closed Accounts Posts: 26,567 ✭✭✭✭Fratton Fred


    Thomas__ wrote: »
    I don´t expect to see Corbyn as the next PM and seeing as it´s almost done (just two seats yet to come in), the Tories will have to offer the DUPers for getting them into a coalition and I just presume that this won´t be good for NI with them die-hard Unionists being part of a UK govt. But there´s no other Party around they could have as a partner.

    Either way, the coming weeks (or even months) will be difficult enough to form a new govt by that result.

    having the political wing of the UVF calling the shots in Westminster is frightening. I personally would much prefer a coalition with the SNP, where May and Sturgeon get to negotiate either a soft Brexit, on the condition there is no indy ref this government.

    Either that, or they admit that Brexit is a cluster **** and in light of this election, call another referendum.


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  • #1867
    ancapailldorcha
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 41,834 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    Fratton Fred wrote: »
    having the political wing of the UVF calling the shots in Westminster is frightening. I personally would much prefer a coalition with the SNP, where May and Sturgeon get to negotiate either a soft Brexit, on the condition there is no indy ref this government.

    Either that, or they admit that Brexit is a cluster **** and in light of this election, call another referendum.

    Do you think calling another referendum would be politically feasible, Fred?

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



  • #1868
    bnt
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,144 ✭✭✭✭bnt


    The results in Scotland are interesting in a regional sense. You wouldn't expect Conservative support in Glasgow any more than in Liverpool, but the whole of the Lowlands and Borders, south of the Edinburgh region (Lothian), are now Conservative seats. I think it's reasonable to read that as a loss of support for independence in the region closet to England.

    Glasgow area? SNP support in the centre, but a Conservative seats to the south , a LD seat to the north and three Labour seats to the east. The north? Orkney & Shetland was already LD, and they've been joined by their neighbours to the south (Caithness etc. ). Highlands? Not the eastern Highlands, which is solidly Conservative now outside Aberdeen, and there are more Conservative seats in Stirling and South Perthshire.

    Overall, in Scotland, the SNP lost 21 seats, Conservatives gained 12 (going from 1 to 13), Labour gained 6 and LG gained 3. I'd say that talk of another independence referendum is going on to the back burner.

    You are the type of what the age is searching for, and what it is afraid it has found. I am so glad that you have never done anything, never carved a statue, or painted a picture, or produced anything outside of yourself! Life has been your art. You have set yourself to music. Your days are your sonnets.

    ―Oscar Wilde predicting Social Media, in The Picture of Dorian Gray



  • #1869
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Thomas__ wrote: »
    I don´t expect to see Corbyn as the next PM and seeing as it´s almost done (just two seats yet to come in), the Tories will have to offer the DUPers for getting them into a coalition and I just presume that this won´t be good for NI with them die-hard Unionists being part of a UK govt. But there´s no other Party around they could have as a partner.

    Either way, the coming weeks (or even months) will be difficult enough to form a new govt by that result.

    Alex Kane was on RTE Radio 1 this morning and said that if such a coalition materialises and an attempt is made to pursue a hard Brexit agenda, then the chances of resurrecting the devolved administration at Stormont are virtually zero.


  • #1870
    Fratton Fred
    Closed Accounts Posts: 26,567 ✭✭✭✭Fratton Fred


    ancapailldorcha wrote: »
    Do you think calling another referendum would be politically feasible, Fred?

    Who knows, the world has gone stark raving bonkers at the moment.

    If May and Sturgeon go in to a coalition (I know Sturgeon isn't in Westminster, but you get my drift), then I guess anything is possible.

    It may be political suicide for them both, but it looks like they are both on borrowed time any way.


  • #1871
    Thomas__
    Closed Accounts Posts: 618 ✭✭✭Thomas__


    FrancieBrady wrote: »
    Thomas__ wrote: »
    I see it rather the other way round, the Shinners would not by any chance deal with the Tories, except in order to twart them from forming a new govt.:D

    TBH SF won't and have never taken their seats. So SF won't be dealing with anyone. If you are looking for a consistent policy, look no further.

    When you get into bed with the likes of the DUP just to have power...that is inconsistency.

    I have no illusions about that. You´re quite right. The Shinners stick to their Dogma and the DUPers are just keen to become part of a UK govt "for the sake of their Britishness" and mess up things even worser.


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  • #1872
    blanch152
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,863 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    Right2Write wrote: »
    Disastrous election for Northern Ireland and SF in particular, despite them increasing their seats:
    - the moderate nationalist and unionist vote has been seriously eroded
    - the DUP have the whiphand
    - SF approach of hoping Brexit will force Scottish Ind seriously damaged with SNP taking a battering
    - SF hoped for border poll result there to be seen - 11/7 sectarian headcount to stay in the union.
    - Joint administration with DUP now very unlikely - SF would have to swallow a LOT of pride
    - Direct rule with the prospect of the DUP having a significant input

    What does Gerry say on the morning news - "it's up to the Taoiseach to put us first etc" or words to that effect. Well news for you Gerry, go sort out your own problems and take some responsibility for your decisions and mandate.


    SF will now be desperate for an Assembly deal. As Micheal Martin put it on radio this morning, SF stood around and let FG form a government, they brought the Assembly down and now they are standing around letting the Conservatives and DUP get on with a hard Brexit. Makes you wonder why anyone would bother voting for them as they will just sit on their hands. Quite ironic to hear Gerry calling on others to create a triangle on Brexit between London, Belfast and Dublin, when SF are doing nothing.

    If SF want to deliver for Northern Ireland, they could take their seats in Westminister and ensure there is no hard Brexit.


  • #1873
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 25,611 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    blanch152 wrote: »
    SF will now be desperate for an Assembly deal. As Micheal Martin put it on radio this morning, SF stood around and let FG form a government, they brought the Assembly down and now they are standing around letting the Conservatives and DUP get on with a hard Brexit. Makes you wonder why anyone would bother voting for them as they will just sit on their hands. Quite ironic to hear Gerry calling on others to create a triangle on Brexit between London, Belfast and Dublin, when SF are doing nothing.

    If SF want to deliver for Northern Ireland, they could take their seats in Westminister and ensure there is no hard Brexit.
    Doing something isn't always better than doing nothing.


  • #1874
    sink
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,314 ✭✭✭sink


    I am delighted with this result. I despise the DUP and have no love for the Tories, but the biggest concern for Ireland was the border and the customs union. No way around it now, the Tories will have to back down on hard brexit, there is no possible majority for it in Westminster. I can not see Britain leaving without a deal despite May's rhetoric, it would simply be too much of a disaster. If the hardliners in the Tory party won't back down, May will have to reach across the aisle.

    Shame about SDLP, they were a good voice for nationalist views in Westminster. Having them in there asking question on the Brexit committee will be a big loss.


  • #1875
    Thomas__
    Closed Accounts Posts: 618 ✭✭✭Thomas__


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Thomas__ wrote: »
    I don´t expect to see Corbyn as the next PM and seeing as it´s almost done (just two seats yet to come in), the Tories will have to offer the DUPers for getting them into a coalition and I just presume that this won´t be good for NI with them die-hard Unionists being part of a UK govt. But there´s no other Party around they could have as a partner.

    Either way, the coming weeks (or even months) will be difficult enough to form a new govt by that result.

    Alex Kane was on RTE Radio 1 this morning and said that if such a coalition materialises and an attempt is made to pursue a hard Brexit agenda, then the chances of resurrecting the devolved administration at Stormont are virtually zero.

    I can´t tell of any other Party as the DUP and "some" for their followers who are so much yearning to have direct ruole re-istalled then them. For me, they are the real dinosaurs from the old days which means either back to the old Stormont Regime or direct rule, as long as all things are and stay "British". They are the most stupid and stubborn people in the whole of NI. In contrast to them, the UUP appears to be the rather moderate alternative to them but they got not a single seat in the Commons.


  • #1876
    ancapailldorcha
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 41,834 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    Fratton Fred wrote: »
    Who knows, the world has gone stark raving bonkers at the moment.

    If May and Sturgeon go in to a coalition (I know Sturgeon isn't in Westminster, but you get my drift), then I guess anything is possible.

    It may be political suicide for them both, but it looks like they are both on borrowed time any way.

    Sturgeon would demand Indyref2 and/or full membership of the single market though and that's if she overcomes her dislike of the Tories.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



  • #1877
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 25,611 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    sink wrote: »
    I am delighted with this result. I despise the DUP and have no love for the Tories, but the biggest concern for Ireland was the border and the customs union. No way around it now, the Tories will have to back down on hard brexit, there is no possible majority for it in Westminster. I can not see Britain leaving without a deal despite May's rhetoric, it would simply be too much of a disaster. If the hardliners in the Tory party won't back down, May will have to reach across the aisle.

    Shame about SDLP, they were a good voice for nationalist views in Westminster. Having them in there asking question on the Brexit committee will be a big loss.
    Where's this idea that the DUP are dead set against a hard border coming from exactly? If the option is between showing a passport between NI and GB or building a 30 foot wall along the border they'd go for the latter.


  • #1878
    sink
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,314 ✭✭✭sink


    Fratton Fred wrote: »
    Who knows, the world has gone stark raving bonkers at the moment.

    If May and Sturgeon go in to a coalition (I know Sturgeon isn't in Westminster, but you get my drift), then I guess anything is possible.

    It may be political suicide for them both, but it looks like they are both on borrowed time any way.

    Zero chance of this happening. The SNP have always portrayed themselves as the anti-Tory party. They would be crucified worse than the Lib Dems if they propped up a Tory government.


  • #1879
    Thomas__
    Closed Accounts Posts: 618 ✭✭✭Thomas__


    Deleted User wrote: »
    blanch152 wrote: »
    SF will now be desperate for an Assembly deal. As Micheal Martin put it on radio this morning, SF stood around and let FG form a government, they brought the Assembly down and now they are standing around letting the Conservatives and DUP get on with a hard Brexit. Makes you wonder why anyone would bother voting for them as they will just sit on their hands. Quite ironic to hear Gerry calling on others to create a triangle on Brexit between London, Belfast and Dublin, when SF are doing nothing.

    If SF want to deliver for Northern Ireland, they could take their seats in Westminister and ensure there is no hard Brexit.
    Doing something isn't always better than doing nothing.

    To overcome old dogmas means progress, but the Shinners are very much unpragmatic when it comes to taking their seats in the Commons because of the oath of allegiance they would be bound to take. No way, they never will do that. Pity the SDLP has no such backing in NI.


  • #1880
    FrancieBrady
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,678 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    I think anyone getting involved with May and the imploding Tory circus will suffer whenever we inevitably go back to the polls.

    Fairly typical that Martin would seek to have a political dig. Even though he has himself kept FG in power here.


  • #1881
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 25,611 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Thomas__ wrote: »
    I can?t tell of any other Party as the DUP and "some" for their followers who are so much yearning to have direct ruole re-istalled then them. For me, they are the real dinosaurs from the old days which means either back to the old Stormont Regime or direct rule, as long as all things are and stay "British". They are the most stupid and stubborn people in the whole of NI. In contrast to them, the UUP appears to be the rather moderate alternative to them but they got not a single seat in the Commons.
    It's sad really. The UUP recently helped the Alliance out when they could have just handed up to the DUP. That's what moderation gets you in NI it seems.


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  • #1882
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 25,611 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Thomas__ wrote: »
    To overcome old dogmas means progress, but the Shinners are very much unpragmatic when it comes to taking their seats in the Commons because of the oath of allegiance they would be bound to take. No way, they never will do that. Pity the SDLP has no such backing in NI.
    Everyone knows what they're voting for. Mayhaps how close this election was will change minds in the future but I doubt it. The DUP puts the Tories over the mark with or without Sinn Fein taking their seats.


  • #1883
    blanch152
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,863 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    Thomas__ wrote: »
    To overcome old dogmas means progress, but the Shinners are very much unpragmatic when it comes to taking their seats in the Commons because of the oath of allegiance they would be bound to take. No way, they never will do that. Pity the SDLP has no such backing in NI.


    It is really disappointing to see that a hard Brexit could be stopped by SF stepping up and doing its bit and that they are letting the people of this island down like that.
    FrancieBrady wrote: »
    I think anyone getting involved with May and the imploding Tory circus will suffer whenever we inevitably go back to the polls.

    Fairly typical that Martin would seek to have a political dig. Even though he has himself kept FG in power here.

    It would be good news for Ireland if the DUP suffered for getting involved with May. It would also be good news for Ireland if SF suffered for its abstentionist policy.

    The voters in Northern Ireland might realise over the coming year that it is better to vote for parties that will actually do something rather than moan from the sidelines or dig into a trench.


  • #1884
    FrancieBrady
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,678 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Thomas__ wrote: »
    To overcome old dogmas means progress, but the Shinners are very much unpragmatic when it comes to taking their seats in the Commons because of the oath of allegiance they would be bound to take. No way, they never will do that. Pity the SDLP has no such backing in NI.

    Clearly the 'people' who are electing them again and again can see that it matters little whether they take their seats or not.

    The reality is that more and more voters (formerly SDLP voters) have shifted to SF, it clearly isn't that big of a deal.


  • #1885
    First Up
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,823 ✭✭✭✭First Up


    Deleted User wrote:
    Where's this idea that the DUP are dead set against a hard border coming from exactly? If the option is between showing a passport between NI and GB or building a 30 foot wall along the border they'd go for the latter.


    Correct and they are also very hot on immigration. They won't be happy with EU nationals having a free run into NI.


  • #1886
    CeilingFly
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,378 ✭✭✭CeilingFly


    devnull wrote: »
    DUP+Tory deal looking like confidence and supply.

    Only realistic option.

    And possibly with SF getting some quiet sweetners in NI to continue their boycott of westminister to cement the majority.

    Certainly means soft brexit. The hard brexit people in tories won't want another election, some have lost their seats too, so DUP are probably the most smug of smug people this morning.


    Financial markets are starting to like this too and sterling starting to win back some early losses.


  • #1887
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    blanch152 wrote: »
    SF will now be desperate for an Assembly deal. As Micheal Martin put it on radio this morning, SF stood around and let FG form a government, they brought the Assembly down and now they are standing around letting the Conservatives and DUP get on with a hard Brexit. Makes you wonder why anyone would bother voting for them as they will just sit on their hands. Quite ironic to hear Gerry calling on others to create a triangle on Brexit between London, Belfast and Dublin, when SF are doing nothing.

    If SF want to deliver for Northern Ireland, they could take their seats in Westminister and ensure there is no hard Brexit.

    SF clearly ran on an abstentionist platform and increased their seat count from 4 to 7 and in the process wiped out the SDLP. Why should they change what seems to be a successful strategy for them? There will be no assembly if a Tory-DUP coalition goes with a hard Brexit strategy.


  • #1888
    NIMAN
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 35,769 ✭✭✭✭NIMAN


    A Tory/DUP government. Help us all.


  • #1889
    sink
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,314 ✭✭✭sink


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Where's this idea that the DUP are dead set against a hard border coming from exactly? If the option is between showing a passport between NI and GB or building a 30 foot wall along the border they'd go for the latter.

    A large amount of their support comes from farmers, who are dead against any customs barriers on the border.

    They're an irrational bunch, anti-EU, but still know which side their bread is buttered.

    They don't have to answer to anyone when it comes to supporting the customs union, the Tories can't leverage them any other way.

    The DUP were dead against a special status for Northern Ireland fearing that would lead to greater North-South integration and a drifting apart from the mainland. The only way that would come about is through a Labour coalition with SDLP, which is effectively dead in the water. They don't have to worry about it and so can make any demands they like without worrying about the nationalist opposition getting a look in.


  • #1890
    Galwayguy35
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,221 ✭✭✭✭Galwayguy35


    I think it's time SF started taking their seats in Westminister, I can see why they didn't do so for decades up until the likes of Thatcher (who thought the Irish were dirt on her shoe) were off the scene but it's different now in 2017 than it was 30-40 years ago.

    Even the DUP don't want a hard border according to one of them who was interviewed this morning but he couldn't answer what was to stop a Pole or Romanian crossing the border after Brexit if no stops were in place.


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  • #1891
    blanch152
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,863 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    Deleted User wrote: »
    SF clearly ran on an abstentionist platform and increased their seat count from 4 to 7 and in the process wiped out the SDLP. Why should they change what seems to be a successful strategy for them? There will be no assembly if a Tory-DUP coalition goes with a hard Brexit strategy.

    SF are at a crossroads. They are not in government in Belfast or Dublin, they are not even in parliament in London. They have had opportunities in the last year to achieve progress in all three places - talk about a coalition in Dublin, join the Assembly while letting the inquiry take its course in Belfast and block a hard Brexit in London - yet they have sat on their hands. That is the message Micheal Martin was putting out there this morning and it does raise the question as to what is the point of voting for SF when they don't achieve anything for you, even when it is possible for them to make a difference.


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