Lions 2017 [MOD WARNING IN OP]

jr86 · 30-04-2017 11:28PM

thomond2006 wrote: »

Per their odds this is PP's team for the first test:

Vunipola, Best, Furlong, AWJ, Itoje, Stander, Warburton, Vunipola
Murray, Sexton, Daly, Farrell, Henshaw, North, Hogg

It's completely unheard of for the "form" team in April/May to be the starting one in the first test

Some odds really stand out, like Jamie George 11/2. I'd be very surprised to see Best in the 23 never-mind the starting team. Owens will probably get the nod over George though but 11/2 looks mad

Wouldn't mind a bit of Halfpenny 5/2 either and/or Liam Williams 7/4. The 13 shirt looks wide open too, I can see Jared Payne having a big say yet, 11/2 looks very big. Teo's impact for England as a "finisher" would put me off backing him to start.

It'd be interesting to look back and see what odds guys like Rob Henderson, Ugo Monye, Tom Croft (09 and 13), and Stephen Jones were to start test 1 in their respective years.

bilston · 01-05-2017 01:08AM

jr86 wrote: »

It's completely unheard of for the "form" team in April/May to be the starting one in the first test

Some odds really stand out, like Jamie George 11/2. I'd be very surprised to see Best in the 23 never-mind the starting team. Owens will probably get the nod over George though but 11/2 looks mad

Wouldn't mind a bit of Halfpenny 5/2 either and/or Liam Williams 7/4. The 13 shirt looks wide open too, I can see Jared Payne having a big say yet, 11/2 looks very big. Teo's impact for England as a "finisher" would put me off backing him to start.

It'd be interesting to look back and see what odds guys like Rob Henderson, Ugo Monye, Tom Croft (09 and 13), and Stephen Jones were to start test 1 in their respective years.

Tom Croft was backed by many in 2009, but in general terms you make a good point. Form and injuries are huge factors, although (touch wood) I believe we've managed to go two weekends without losing any players so far, so that's a good start.

swiwi_ · 01-05-2017 05:27AM

Does this thread do news about the Lions opposition? If so, I might chance my arm and give a wee injury update for NZ players who would be in the mix for the 23.

Dane Coles: calf strain, should be back
Israel Dagg: knee injury, should be back shortly
Jerome Kaino: knee injury, should be back just before the tour starts
Kieran Read: hand surgery, should be back just before the tour starts
Ben Smith: ankle sprain, should be back
Nehe Milner-Skudder: foot fracture, not healing, a major doubt.

All I'd say to Nehe is "harden up bro". Some guy called Richard won a trophy playing on a broken foot.

Tigerandahalf · 01-05-2017 06:43AM

thomond2006 wrote: »

Per their odds this is PP's team for the first test:

Vunipola, Best, Furlong, AWJ, Itoje, Stander, Warburton, Vunipola
Murray, Sexton, Daly, Farrell, Henshaw, North, Hogg

Interesting team. For me Vunipola is a weakness at LH. He is vulnerable to a good TH. Tadhg Furlong has also had a long debut season. He needs to be managed well or he will be jaded come test time.

Best needs to hit the ground running or he could be out of the 23.

The one thing that worries me about the pack is the balance in terms of who is going to do the tackling and clearing out the rucks. A Dan Lydiate or Richard Hill type.

Very lucky there has been no injuries so far.

Wegians89 · 01-05-2017 10:14AM

1. McGrath
2. Best
3. Furlong
4. Itoje
5. Kruis
6. Stander
7.warburton
8. Falatua
9. Murray
10. Sexton
11.daly
12. Farrell
13. Henshaw
14. North
15. Halfpenny
16 George
17. Mako v.
18. Sinkler
19. Henderson
20. Billy v.
21. Webb
22. Davis
23. Williams

jr86 · 01-05-2017 10:21AM

Of bookies across the pond offering odds on a starting team for 1st test (SkyBet and WilliamHill are the only ones I see so far), they have the same team as above except Watson for Daly and Joseph for Henshaw. In fact Henshaw doesn't have a prayer according to both

Is he a little bit over-talked up in Ireland?

jr86 · 01-05-2017 10:24AM

Wegians89 wrote: »

1. McGrath
2. Best
3. Furlong
4. Itoje
5. Kruis
6. Stander
7.warburton
8. Falatua
9. Murray
10. Sexton
11.daly
12. Farrell
13. Henshaw
14. North
15. Halfpenny
16 George
17. Mako v.
18. Sinkler
19. Henderson
20. Billy v.
21. Webb
22. Davis
23. Williams

There are many positions up for grabs in the warm ups but I'd say AWJ and Billy V are two of a select bunch who have been pretty much written into the test team already

I'd be full on amazed if Billy V didn't start even if he didn't even show up to the warm ups

Launchbury's absence pretty much confirms AWJ has the jersey

CMOTDibbler · 01-05-2017 10:31AM

jr86 wrote: »

Of bookies across the pond offering odds on a starting team for 1st test (SkyBet and WilliamHill are the only ones I see so far), they have the same team as above except Watson for Daly and Joseph for Henshaw. In fact Henshaw doesn't have a prayer according to both

Is he a little bit over-talked up in Ireland?

Is Joseph a little bit over-talked up in England?

Not being sarcastic, but he hasn't impressed me in his recent outings. He wouldn't be as strong a defender as Henshaw: had a couple of missed tackles against Stade and only made a couple in the whole game. He's a good passer and offloader, but he has had some pretty average performances too.

Wegians89 · 01-05-2017 10:34AM

jr86 wrote: »

There are many positions up for grabs in the warm ups but I'd say AWJ and Billy V are two of a select bunch who have been pretty much written into the test team already

I'd be full on amazed if Billy V didn't start even if he didn't even show up to the warm ups

Launchbury's absence pretty much confirms AWJ has the jersey

Just going by gatlands comments on big forwards who can get around the park and cause damage and then how he mentioned the bench too, think billy v will have that 20 jersey and guarantee the lions go forward ball in last twenty odd minutes

irishbucsfan · 01-05-2017 10:40AM

CMOTDibbler wrote: »

Is Joseph a little bit over-talked up in England?

Not being sarcastic, but he hasn't impressed me in his recent outings. He wouldn't be as strong a defender as Henshaw: had a couple of missed tackles against Stade and only made a couple in the whole game. He's a good passer and offloader, but he has had some pretty average performances too.

He's a good player but he's not Gatland's type of player at all.

I thought Howley's comments on Jared Payne were telling of what they're looking for in midfield, he spoke about Payne's defensive ability out wide being potentially crucial against the kiwis.

bilston · 01-05-2017 10:58AM

jr86 wrote: »

Of bookies across the pond offering odds on a starting team for 1st test (SkyBet and WilliamHill are the only ones I see so far), they have the same team as above except Watson for Daly and Joseph for Henshaw. In fact Henshaw doesn't have a prayer according to both

Is he a little bit over-talked up in Ireland?

Or undertalked elsewhere?

Former Former · 01-05-2017 11:23AM

jr86 wrote: »

Of bookies across the pond offering odds on a starting team for 1st test (SkyBet and WilliamHill are the only ones I see so far), they have the same team as above except Watson for Daly and Joseph for Henshaw. In fact Henshaw doesn't have a prayer according to both

Is he a little bit over-talked up in Ireland?

Looking at the betting though, PP are offering odds on "will Player X start the first test", but Sky Bet are offering odds on who will occupy a given jersey, so they're slightly different things.

Sky Bet have Payne at 16/1 to start the first test at 13, that seems like a very good bet if one were so inclined. Joseph is at 4/5 which is very short considering most of the coaches (allegedly) didn't want to pick him.

Bridge93 · 01-05-2017 11:40AM

Did someone not mention a few months ago that Joseph hadnt scored a try for Bath since late 2015 or something crazy like that?

jr86 · 01-05-2017 11:42AM

CMOTDibbler wrote: »

Is Joseph a little bit over-talked up in England?

A lot of English fans and media were calling for him to be dropped for Daly in the 6n 2016 though, while this year there was lots of calls for him to be dropped again after the first two matches.

The 13 shirt is a funny one. Despite what Gatland says I can't see him leaving either Sexton or Farrell out, which leaves one centre shirt up for grabs, with Henshaw, JJ, Davies, Teo, Payne all in the reckoning - and as well as that someone like Daly can't be discounted playing here or even North/Nowell as a long shot.

Of all the positions, you'd imagine this one more than any will be decided from form in the warm up games, which makes it very tough to call now. From a betting perspective Payne looks a serious shout imo.

CMOTDibbler · 01-05-2017 12:04PM

jr86 wrote: »

A lot of English fans and media were calling for him to be dropped for Daly in the 6n 2016 though, while this year there was lots of calls for him to be dropped again after the first two matches.

The 13 shirt is a funny one. Despite what Gatland says I can't see him leaving either Sexton or Farrell out, which leaves one centre shirt up for grabs, with Henshaw, JJ, Davies, Teo, Payne all in the reckoning - and as well as that someone like Daly can't be discounted playing here or even North/Nowell as a long shot.

Of all the positions, you'd imagine this one more than any will be decided from form in the warm up games, which makes it very tough to call now. From a betting perspective Payne looks a serious shout imo.

I'm not convinced that Gatland wants Farrell playing at 12. Not least because he pretty much said so himself. Farrell plays at 12 for England because he's one of the best in that position for England. Gatland has a lot more choice than Eddie Jones does, so that paradigm doesn't hold for him.

Much more likely imo that Farrell starts or benches at 10 for the Lions.

Christy42 · 01-05-2017 12:49PM

irishbucsfan wrote: »

He's a good player but he's not Gatland's type of player at all.

I thought Howley's comments on Jared Payne were telling of what they're looking for in midfield, he spoke about Payne's defensive ability out wide being potentially crucial against the kiwis.

I would agree heavily as well here. These players will only have a little while to fully gel together in a lot of cases. This means that defensive structures need to be picked up quickly or we will be over run. Players who can do that will be in that first test.

awec · 01-05-2017 01:09PM

IMO it'll be Farrell and JJ in midfield with Payne possibly the #23.

#22 slot will still be open as Farrell will cover 10.

AbusesToilets · 01-05-2017 01:23PM

I wouldn't be shocked at all if it ended up Murray, Sexton, Henshaw, Payne tbh. Time constraints being what they are, that's a proven, effective defensive unit, who've beaten NZ before.

jr86 · 01-05-2017 01:31PM

I'd be honestly amazed if Farrell was left out of the team barring injury

Tigerandahalf · 01-05-2017 02:15PM

AbusesToilets wrote: »

I wouldn't be shocked at all if it ended up Murray, Sexton, Henshaw, Payne tbh. Time constraints being what they are, that's a proven, effective defensive unit, who've beaten NZ before.

It could be an option. They'll probably get a run together in the warm up games and if they play well they could all start.

There are always a couple of combinations that click straight away in the warm up games.

CMOTDibbler · 01-05-2017 03:34PM

jr86 wrote: »

I'd be honestly amazed if Farrell was left out of the team barring injury

Do you mean left out of the starting XV or the 23 man squad? Because yes, I'd be amazed if it was the latter, not so much the former.

Erik Shin · 01-05-2017 03:40PM

CMOTDibbler wrote: »

Do you mean left out of the starting XV or the 23 man squad? Because yes, I'd be amazed if it was the latter, not so much the former.

No way Gatland leaves Farrell out of his starting team, just too good a player and I'd say Gatty sees him as pivotal to his plans

CMOTDibbler · 01-05-2017 03:58PM

Erik Shin wrote: »

No way Gatland leaves Farrell out of his starting team, just too good a player and I'd say Gatty sees him as pivotal to his plans

As I said, I wouldn't be shocked if he didn't start.

Gatland quite categorically stated that Farrell was picked as a 10. So it's a shoot out between himself, Sexton and Biggar for the starting 10 slot.

.ak · 01-05-2017 04:10PM

Sexton has to stay fit. He's looked quite robust in the last few matches, so maybe he's feeling solid again, but we all know his history. Hopefully he only plays the semi and potential final. That should be plenty. Don't think he needs to start in Ulster.

Podge_irl · 01-05-2017 04:14PM

CMOTDibbler wrote: »

As I said, I wouldn't be shocked if he didn't start.

Gatland quite categorically stated that Farrell was picked as a 10. So it's a shoot out between himself, Sexton and Biggar for the starting 10 slot.

I know it's Gatland, but that is still the two horsiest of two horse races.

CMOTDibbler · 01-05-2017 05:36PM

Podge_irl wrote: »

I know it's Gatland, but that is still the two horsiest of two horse races.

I know.

But in the words of Gattie himself:

...don’t discount the competitiveness of Dan Biggar.

pickarooney · 01-05-2017 07:01PM

CMOTDibbler wrote: »

I know.

But in the words of Gattie himself:

So he'll announced Sexton/Farrell but Biggar will volubly disagree with his decision.

penybont exile · 02-05-2017 05:07PM

AbusesToilets wrote: »

I wouldn't be shocked at all if it ended up Murray, Sexton, Henshaw, Payne tbh. Time constraints being what they are, that's a proven, effective defensive unit, who've beaten NZ before.

Can't see that happening ..... personally I think Webb will be the starting 9.

He showed up well in NZ last year .... I wouldn't be surprised if he goes well in the early games and forces Gatland's hand.

Bridge93 · 02-05-2017 05:16PM

penybont exile wrote: »

Can't see that happening ..... personally I think Webb will be the starting 9.

He showed up well in NZ last year .... I wouldn't be surprised if he goes well in the early games and forces Gatland's hand.

Well theres an ever increasing chance that Murray wont even make the trip which leaves Webb as a close to nailed on starter bar something dramatic.

bilston · 02-05-2017 05:44PM

Bridge93 wrote: »

Well theres an ever increasing chance that Murray wont even make the trip which leaves Webb as a close to nailed on starter bar something dramatic.

I thought Murray was back this weekend? Although we've heard that before!

Lions 2017 [MOD WARNING IN OP]

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