2017 UK General Election - 8th June

ancapailldorcha · 20-04-2017 10:25AM

Maximus Alexander wrote: »

Heh, apparently the SNP is the party for me.

Followed by Labour and the Lib Dems.

Same here oddly enough though the Greens came ahead of the Lib Dems for me as well.

Akrasia · 20-04-2017 10:48AM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Same here oddly enough though the Greens came ahead of the Lib Dems for me as well.

I didn't get a single question about global warming or environmental protection.

The greens might do better in this survey if they had asked about their key platform...

catbear · 20-04-2017 10:51AM

Akrasia wrote: »

Corbyn is so clueless.

His first speech is attacking millionaire tax evaders and going for populist socialism.

All he has to do is focus on brexit! The majority of UK voters want to stay in the EU. If Corbyn had single message "We will do everything we can to reverse brexit, to stay in the EU and prevent the breakup of the UK" they will control the debate and force May into answering the questions she is desperately hoping to avoid.

Forget the usual socialist rhetoric. Make this a referendum on Brexit again. And a referendum on the breaking up of the UK.

It would take a lot of the wind out of the SNP sails too, because if Scotland choose to leave the UK, they will have to re-apply for EU membership with all the uncertainty that involves.

Thats all he has to do. Remind the UK voters how sickened they felt the day after the brexit vote. Remind them of how scared they are of the uncertainty and how the people of Gibralter are facing crisis, remind them of how disgracefully the pro brexit campaign acted after they won, by admitting that they campaigned based on lies and false promises, and how they refused to even stand up and take leadership after Cameron resigned.

Forget millionaire tax evaders. This is an election on a singe issue only.

Corbyn is not clueless. He just doesn't and never has liked the EU. His provided no leadership during the brexit campaign and simply mouthed the party line.

ancapailldorcha · 20-04-2017 10:57AM

Akrasia wrote: »

I didn't get a single question about global warming or environmental protection.

The greens might do better in this survey if they had asked about their key platform...

I suspect that it's due to Brexit so issues like immigration, security and the economy are being given priority.

Akrasia · 20-04-2017 10:58AM

catbear wrote: »

Corbyn is not clueless. He just doesn't and never has liked the EU. His provided no leadership during the brexit campaign and simply mouthed the party line.

If he wants to win the election, he needs to appeal to voters. If he wants to serve his country, he needs to do what his voters want, and the majority of UK people want to stay in the UK and many brexit voters are pissed off that they were lied to during the referendum campaign.

murphaph · 20-04-2017 11:26AM

devnull wrote: »

Latest YouGov Poll:
Conservatives: 48%
Labour: 24%
LibDems 12%
UKIP: 7%
Others: 9%

Turkeys apparently really do vote for Christmas even having seen a glimpse of the oven.

I can't fathom it any more.

catbear · 20-04-2017 11:32AM

Akrasia wrote: »

catbear wrote: »

Corbyn is not clueless. He just doesn't and never has liked the EU. His provided no leadership during the brexit campaign and simply mouthed the party line.

If he wants to win the election, he needs to appeal to voters. If he wants to serve his country, he needs to do what his voters want, and the majority of UK people want to stay in the UK and many brexit voters are pissed off that they were lied to during the referendum campaign.

What are you talking about, is there a vote to expel UK citizens now?

demfad · 20-04-2017 12:08PM

murphaph wrote: »

Turkeys apparently really do vote for Christmas even having seen a glimpse of the oven.

I can't fathom it any more.

With an irrational idea like Brexit adopted by Right wing billionaire media and now the UK Government it produces this puzzling affect.

In reality, many many people are living in disinformation cocoons now in the UK. All the 'news' they are receiving is telling them that Brexit is good and objectors are divsisive 'remoaners'. It is the same phenomenom as trying to decipher how Trump's base stays intact.

In fully authoritarian countries with no independent media you see the entire electorate deceived in this way.
You are getting a sideways view at a dishonest Government and media keeping a substantial minority of the UK electorate disinformed.

The reality is that the mass corruption that has seeped into Capitalism has infected the media. The 4th estate is a massively important watch dog and it's independence and truthfulness should be guarded as vehemently as the roles of the other State pillars.

It may be too late for the UK for a while.

4068ac1elhodqr · 20-04-2017 12:11PM

Akrasia wrote: »

Corbyn is so clueless. His first speech is attacking millionaire tax evaders and going for populist socialism. All he has to do is focus on brexit! The majority of UK voters want to stay in the EU.

But 52% (majority) said they didn't want the EU.

Agree the other 48% carries some weight but Labour aren't really sure or unanimously clear as to what they want regarding the EU.

The 'us vs them' speech seemed to go down well. The 95% vs the 5% is a clearer majority to get clued into, emphasis and market.

Lemming · 20-04-2017 12:18PM

Damien Rapping Hamster wrote: »

But 52% (majority) said they didn't want the EU.

That's 52% of those that voted; the actual number is somewhere around 27% of the electorate if I recall, give or take a couple of percentage points. Majority indeed ...

catbear · 20-04-2017 12:33PM

Yeah 27% of the electorate is not convincing but Corbyn doesn't care as it suits his pathological objection to the EU and so he's totally rowing in with the Tories in this. All he's arguing now is shades of Brexit.

It's all very ironic really when you hear people say Blair made Labour just Tory lite when now Corbyn is effectively trying to out-Brexit the Tories. He's not even offering an alternative.

His plan seems to be to get Brexit out of way so then having vanished the Tories in a later election he'll create some workers socialist utopia that he wrote about in a diary in 1973.

devnull · 20-04-2017 12:55PM

demfad wrote: »

With an irrational idea like Brexit adopted by Right wing billionaire media and now the UK Government it produces this puzzling affect.

In reality, many many people are living in disinformation cocoons now in the UK. All the 'news' they are receiving is telling them that Brexit is good and objectors are divsisive 'remoaners'.

In fully authoritarian countries with no independent media you see the entire electorate deceived in this way. You are getting a sideways view at a dishonest Government and media keeping a substantial minority of the UK electorate disinformed.

The reality is that the mass corruption that has seeped into Capitalism has infected the media.

The thing is, being generally a centrist myself that would be center-left leaning on some issues and center-right leaning on others but very pro EU, I have seen this kind of thing building up for years so it doesn't really surprise me, not one bit at all.

The likes of the Daily Mail and the Daily Express and also in the past few years The Sun, have been allowed to get away with masses amount of disinformation and people who have been full of the same inaccurate messages and sleight of hand by the media for years that have started to accept them as fact,

For example, I liked the Sky News Facebook page and see many stories go up on there and the comments section is very scary how much of the population is taken in by all of this spin and seems to be under robot and zombified like control of the right of the country and media outlets such as the Express, Sun and the Mail.

Any story about a negative impact of Brexit is deemed as being one of remoaners or that the media are throwing a fit because 'they didn't get their own way' or deemed as being 'fake news' or pure scaremongering or project fear, no matter how much factual basis or figures there are to back it up, it is deemed as being false and should not be taken any notice of and is proof that the establishment is crying in their beds because they don't get their own way and the EU is on the brink of collapse.

Any story about a positive impact of brexit is deemed as being true and proof that the British Empire is making it's way back, there is going to be some Utopian Paradise that kicks off in 2019, the country is going to be the best in the world and they'll get all the benefits of being in the EU without any downsides. There does not have to be any factual basis to back up any of this, it says things will be good so it must be true and is an example of taking back control and sticking two fingers up to the elite.

My point is, so much of the electorate have been manipulated to the point where they accept anything that suits their own views/prejudices without any question or anything to back it up, but anything that doesn't agree with their views is straight away incorrect and fake news and just people who are bitter no matter how much statistics there are to back it up.

4068ac1elhodqr · 20-04-2017 12:55PM

Lemming wrote: »

That's 52% of those that voted; the actual number is somewhere around 27% of the electorate if I recall, give or take a couple of percentage points. Majority indeed ...

Equally fair to say then that the 48% remainers, is around 4% less than 27%.
25%, a majority indeed....

Bear in mind the referendum is/was the largest sample group ever taken (by far) in regards to this question. Small random polls from the Guardian and such like, count about as much as the 86% certainly of the similar pollsters that forecast the Hilary win.

devnull · 20-04-2017 01:04PM

catbear wrote: »

Yeah 27% of the electorate is not convincing but Corbyn doesn't care as it suits his pathological objection to the EU and so he's totally rowing in with the Tories in this. All he's arguing now is shades of Brexit.

It's all very ironic really when you hear people say Blair made Labour just Tory lite when now Corbyn is effectively trying to out-Brexit the Tories. He's not even offering an alternative.

His plan seems to be to get Brexit out of way so then having vanished the Tories in a later election he'll create some workers socialist utopia that he wrote about in a diary in 1973.

My issue with Corbyn is he always preaches to the converted and all his speeches and his campaigning do is please his core audience who he already has the votes from already. These people on their own are not enough to win him an election, but he seems to not care about it because he cares more about himself than the party which he is slowly killing or the country which he is allowing to become more and more right-wing.

I don't agree that Blair was Tory light, but he certainly wasn't a left winger like Corbyn, that is for sure. But the simple thing is that Blair won three elections, no matter what you think of him, he had policies, vision and a personality that people voted for and wanted to run the country, this is something that Corbyn totally lacks and the current government are really eating into this and is the whole reason they're going to the polls in the first place.

As much as Momentum think he is going to answer all of their prayers, at the end of the day he can barely do a thing if he's not in power and based on current polling data, he may well have a party that will have so few seats that after the next election that they may as well not be in opposition since the Tories will just be able to ignore them because of the numbers will give them such a big majority that they can do anything they want.

The other thing is those moaning about Tory-Light or Blue Labour and things like this, are seriously moaning about a Labour Party that had broadly centrist policies that were elected and saying they "betrayed the party" whilst currently carrying out a campaign with a leader that is going to help the most right wing government in two decades to gain power?

It's laughable that on one hand they claim that Blair was not left wing enough, whilst holding a position that allows a full right wing government into office for 5 years with a majority so big they virtually will be dictating to the country for 5 years.

demfad · 20-04-2017 01:15PM

Damien Rapping Hamster wrote: »

Equally fair to say then that the 48% remainers, is around 4% less than 27%.
25%, a majority indeed....

Bear in mind the referendum is/was the largest sample group ever taken (by far) in regards to this question. Small random polls from the Guardian and such like, count about as much as the 86% certainly of the similar pollsters that forecast the Hilary win.

3 things on this:

1. Firstly 86% certainty is not a poll. It is a probability. e.g probability of a Trump win was like rolling a particular number on a dice. Unlikely but a 1/6th chance of it happening

2. The popularity polls for HRC had her at 51-2%. Those were correct based on results.

3. There is an ongoing FBI investigation into Russian interference which will also be looking at electoral roll hacking in the swing states. This would allow for micro targetting of voters and also vote supression. Don't assume anything by the result of the US election (or Brexit)

4068ac1elhodqr · 20-04-2017 01:23PM

Lets not make claims that a majority of the uk/electorate support remain.
The election last June was very very well advertised for anyone to cast their vote on the matter.
To say opinion has changed by over 4% within 6mths is simply speculation.

Vote hacking, sure....

Lemming · 20-04-2017 01:38PM

Damien Rapping Hamster wrote: »

Equally fair to say then that the 48% remainers, is around 4% less than 27%.
25%, a majority indeed....

I'm not the one crowing on about 52% victory. I also never said that 48% was a majority. However, the salient point in observing the logical fallacy about being so cock-sure about 52% is this; 27% of the electorate, for varying reasons, voted to leave the EU. That leaves 73% of the voting population either as remain, or unknown (ergo 'status quo' until clarified).

Now, when Wrexsh1t goes south; and south it will go, that's an awwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwful lot of voters that will be very unhappy with the government. And the 27%

Lemming · 20-04-2017 01:39PM

Damien Rapping Hamster wrote: »

Lets not make claims that a majority of the uk/electorate support remain.
The election last June was very very well advertised for anyone to cast their vote on the matter.
To say opinion has changed by over 4% within 6mths is simply speculation.

Vote hacking, sure....

"The will of the people". Cry me a river. If the will of the people was so resolute and unbending, there'd only ever have been a single election. Ever.

People can, and frequently do, change their minds or have buyers remorse, or realise they've been played for mugs. That means that they are fully entitled to adjust their world view. To tell people that they are not allowed to do that is a power-grasb.

devnull · 20-04-2017 01:47PM

Lemming wrote: »

Now, when Wrexsh1t goes south; and south it will go, that's an awwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwful lot of voters that will be very unhappy with the government. And the 27%

Indeed, but that is why it makes sense to call an election in May's eyes.

With her wafer thin majority right now she is going to have all kinds of problems in relation to passing laws due to the rebels in her own party and the strength of the opposition numbers that means that it's not going to be an easy ride for her and the prospect of a vote of no confidence if it all goes wrong in 2019/2020 is not one she would like to face.

If you couple with that the fact that an election is due in 2020 as well, just after Brexit happens and when the effects of it will probably start to be felt, this would leave her in both a vulnerable position within her own party which would be split and the election would be just at the wrong time for her because she will be held to account on the deal and the initial issues surrounding leaving the EU will be held against her.

By having an election now, she'll be able to increase her numbers to stave off rebels in her own party meaning she doesn't have to water down policies and procedures through fear of them being voted against, she'll be able to weaken the oppositions numbers to the point where they will become irrelevant, she'll be able to kick an election to 2022 when she will be less vulnerable to the brexit deal failures that happened a couple of years earlier, and she'll have had time to steady the ship so to speak after it.

In short:
- Theresa May doesn't want an election in 2020
- She doesn't want to water down her own policies
- She doesn't want to have to fight with her own rebels
- She doesn't want the other parties to have a big a total numbers that they do now.
- She wants to dictate how the country is run without needing to climb down through pressure.

The election achieves all five

demfad · 20-04-2017 01:48PM

Damien Rapping Hamster wrote: »

Lets not make claims that a majority of the uk/electorate support remain.
The election last June was very very well advertised for anyone to cast their vote on the matter.
To say opinion has changed by over 4% within 6mths is simply speculation.

Vote hacking, sure....

I didn't say 'Vote hacking', I said 'electoral roll hacking'. You've heard of the hack of the DNC server? The RNC server was also hacked. That means that all the voter data on all Democrat and Republican voters were available to the hackers (Russia). If this data was used to micro-target voters in swing states and to suppress Democrat voters (eg change their address) then this will make a Trump win more likely while being invisible to people estimating winners. All the Trump election apparatus is under investigation including Cambridge Analytica which also worked on micro-targetting for leave on Brexit.

demfad wrote: »

3. There is an ongoing FBI investigation into Russian interference which will also be looking at electoral roll hacking in the swing states. This would allow for micro targetting of voters and also vote supression. Don't assume anything by the result of the US election (or Brexit)

4068ac1elhodqr · 20-04-2017 01:48PM

Let's stick to the facts 52% of the binding election expressed (via post or ballot station to leave), 48% didn't.
The rest were either i) not interested ii) undecided. A yearly referendum on this decision would be far from practical.
A yearly re-run of the US election is also more pie-in-the-sky thinking.

murphaph · 20-04-2017 01:50PM

Damien Rapping Hamster wrote: »

Lets not make claims that a majority of the uk/electorate support remain.
The election last June was very very well advertised for anyone to cast their vote on the matter.
To say opinion has changed by over 4% within 6mths is simply speculation.

Vote hacking, sure....

Be honest with yourself. Anyone who wanted Brexit went out and voted for it (a majority anyway). Far more people who were at least passively in favour of remaining did not vote as it was simply inconceivable to so many that Brexit would come to pass.

ancapailldorcha · 20-04-2017 01:50PM

Demfad, take the talk of hacking and potential conspiracies somewhere else please.

catbear · 20-04-2017 02:01PM

Damien Rapping Hamster wrote: »

Let's stick to the facts 52% of the binding election expressed (via post or ballot station to leave), 48% didn't.
The rest were either i) not interested ii) undecided. A yearly referendum on this decision would be far from practical.
A yearly re-run of the US election is also more pie-in-the-sky thinking.

What's bizarre though is that both Corbyn and May are acting as if only that 27% of the electorate who voted Brexit are the only voters worth courting in June.

It is truly bizarre, it's as if both are conspiring to put Brexit behind them so they can get back their old comfortable power duopoly.

Lemming · 20-04-2017 02:07PM

Damien Rapping Hamster wrote: »

Let's stick to the facts 52% of the binding election expressed (via post or ballot station to leave), 48% didn't.
The rest were either i) not interested ii) undecided. A yearly referendum on this decision would be far from practical.
A yearly re-run of the US election is also more pie-in-the-sky thinking.

Lets stick to the facts shall we? the electorate were asked if they wished to remain in, or leave the EU. There were no other questions on the ballot paper. This is also a fact. I know this, because I was there. Also a fact.

So tell me; what do "the people" want? Bearing in mind that only 27% of the entire electorate (a number which has since dwindled) expressed a desire to leave.

4068ac1elhodqr · 20-04-2017 02:17PM

Lemming wrote: »

Lets stick to the facts shall we? the electorate were asked if they wished to remain in, or leave the EU. There were no other questions on the ballot paper. This is also a fact. I know this, because I was there. Also a fact.

So tell me; what do "the people" want? Bearing in mind that only 27% of the entire electorate (a number which has since dwindled) expressed a desire to leave.

All we have to go on is the facts at hand, 52% of the binding election last June expressed (via post or ballot station to leave the EU), 48% to remain in the EU. The rest were either i) not interested ii) undecided.

So 27% circa of the electorate want to leave
So 25% circa of the electorate wanted to remain.

Again, the rest who didn't vote were either: i) not interested ii) undecided
- as they choose not to express an opinion. You can pigeon hole these silent non-voters with 'ifs and buts' - is that factual or fair to do so, or is it fake news?

Bear in mind casting a vote is not a difficult operation for anyone with the slightest inclination.

Maybe you should campaign for compulsory voting, change the system, change the world, and all that?

Lemming · 20-04-2017 02:24PM

Damien Rapping Hamster wrote: »

All we have to go on is the facts at hand, 52% of the binding election last June expressed (via post or ballot station to leave the EU), 48% to remain in the EU. The rest were either i) not interested ii) undecided.

So 27% circa of the electorate want to leave
So 25% circa of the electorate wanted to remain.

Again, the rest who didn't vote were either: i) not interested ii) undecided
- as they choose not to express an opinion. You can pigeon hole these silent non-voters with 'ifs and buts' - is that factual or fair to do so, or is it fake news?

Bear in mind casting a vote is not a difficult operation for anyone with the slightest inclination.

Maybe you should campaign for compulsory voting, change the system, change the world, and all that?

It was not neither an election, nor anything legally-binding that was run last June. Indeed, the government's own published documents on the matter were quite clear on that second bit. And yet, here we are with a power-grab by extremist ideologues.

Calina · 20-04-2017 02:27PM

This is an interesting assessment of Labour under Corbyn.

http://www.danielallington.net/2017/04/corbyn-labour-leader-government-socialism-fans-culture/

I concluded after the 70K tax thing that Corbyn probably doesn't care about actually winning elections.

This woukd indicate that amongst his supporters there is a lack of desire to govern but merelt to purify the party ideologically.

Ps posting from phone so you may have to copy paste the link.

Zubeneschamali · 20-04-2017 03:25PM

catbear wrote: »

His plan seems to be to get Brexit out of way so then having vanished the Tories in a later election he'll create some workers socialist utopia that he wrote about in a diary in 1973.

Imagine if a pre-Iraq Blair had led Labour into the Brexit referendum - Brexit would have been laughed off the stage. And if not, Labour would be going all-in now to defeat the Tories and overturn Brexit.

Capt'n Midnight · 20-04-2017 07:13PM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

, take the talk of hacking and potential conspiracies somewhere else please.

This from Waterfordwhispers is parody :pac:
http://waterfordwhispersnews.com/2017/04/19/this-is-how-you-politics-bitches/

Meanwhile, Russian hackers have stated that they have already begun preparations for the snap UK elections, but would not confirm which politician emails they will be hacking, but promised that this will be the most interesting UK election in years, as there are “a lot of skeletons in the House of Commons”.

But POE's law kicks in hard on this one
http://waterfordwhispersnews.com/2017/04/20/margaret-thatchers-erection-breaks-through-coffin-at-news-of-snap-election/

... May herself had masterminded a snap election, which could ultimately see the dismantling of the NHS, and a clear mandate for the Tories to continue cutting essential public services while loosening regulations on corporations.
...
“We’re already saving £300 million when we leave the EU, imagine what we’d save if we didn’t spend any money on the NHS at all,”

If May gets a large majority who could stop her rail-roading lot of changes through like Brexit was rail-roaded through ?

There's no real opposition in parliament, the unions aren't powerful , the EU has no say. The Queen has already agreed to an election and she isn't getting younger and her successor won't have a power base for a while. The House of Lords wasn't able to do anything about Brexit.

Corbyn's can't campaign on Brexit. Too many of his supporters voted for it.
The NHS is the big one. But 24% behind is a huge ask in a first pass the post system.

2017 UK General Election - 8th June

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