2017 UK General Election - 8th June

Mr.Micro

aled wrote: »

That is a really interesting question. Because she is really putting herself out there to do exactly that. And I fail to understand why she would do that. It is very strange

She is not going to lose, IMO. More than likely increase her majority. Labour as an opposition, hopeless. No contest. Corbin does not even know which decade it is, nay century even. Once she gets her majority, her Government can push though whatever they like, as it will have done validated by the election. People cannot complain after. It's going to be like a second referendum on Brexit.

4068ac1elhodqr

catbear wrote: »

Anyway enough of irrelevant stuff. Anyone think she might want to lose this election?

Interesting indeed, perhaps she was told to?

If the Con come across as the pro-Brexit party, would the 48% (and a few others) choose to stick their vote elsewhere, to keep their dream alive (mainly of easy and cheap summer holidays).

Brexit = the start of the end, of the entity know as the UK (via Scottish Ind).

Akrasia

catbear wrote: »

Because she knows brexit in the coming couple of years is likely to be a **** sandwich with potential to dissolve the uk and she wants out?

Even libdem in a coalition would potentially reverse brexit or bust dynamic.

What are the poll numbers on support for brexit at the moment?
In November a majority opposed brexit.

This general election will become another referendum on Brexit. The Tories will realise that they would lose such a referendum, so they'll be campaigning on the basis that it's too late now that article 50 has been triggered (ie, muddying the waters and confusing voters so that they'll vote against their own interests on the basis of fear-mongering and lies)

Half the Tory candidates oppose brexit, so they're not going to be that enthusiastic in pushing the 'better out than in' campaign, so it's likely that the BNP and UKIP will pick up votes from the hardcore brexit voters, while the soft tory voters will switch to Lib-dems or Labour as single issue voters, or perhaps even independent tory candidates who oppose brexit but support other conservative values.

demfad

catbear wrote: »

Because she knows brexit in the coming couple of years is likely to be a **** sandwich with potential to dissolve the uk and she wants out?

Even libdem in a coalition would potentially reverse brexit or bust dynamic.

Apparently May was the 'last man standing' in not wanting an election. It was her cabinet including Hammond who wanted this.

Maidenhead (her own constituency) will be targetted viciously by remainers.

catbear

demfad wrote: »

Apparently May was the 'last man standing' in not wanting an election. It was her cabinet including Hammond who wanted this.

Maidenhead (her own constituency) will be targetted viciously by remainers.

Interesting.

Its going to be a bruising election and that claims made on the side of buses are going to be resurrected, even by leave voters who want those claims delivered.

Sam Russell

demfad wrote: »

Apparently May was the 'last man standing' in not wanting an election. It was her cabinet including Hammond who wanted this.

Maidenhead (her own constituency) will be targetted viciously by remainers.

Can you imagine what would happen if she lost her seat?

ancapailldorcha

Sam Russell wrote: »

Can you imagine what would happen if she lost her seat?

She won't. It's a safe Tory constituency which barely voted for Remain.

seamus

The campaign is going to get dirty.

Videos already appearing online of May late last year absolutely ruling out any chance of a snap election on the basis that the country needed stability and not elections or game playing.

If the Lib Dems ran with the simple and truthful messages that the Tories are only interested in the good of the party and not the country, they could make big inroads. And especially if they run with the anti-elites angle. The Tories are the very definition of "elites", so if the Lib Dems can twist the Tories' own "take the power back" message back on themselves it could be very effective.

There isn't a long time to go, but six weeks is more than enough time to lose 21 percentage points if the opposition can manipulate the public.

Akrasia

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

She won't. It's a safe Tory constituency which barely voted for Remain.

She got 65% of the vote with a 72% turnout last time, I reckon her vote will be reduced because at the time she was elected, she was anti brexit, and the 65% tory vote in 2015 was an especially large margin of victory, previous elections it has been much closer. If the constituency voted remain, where will the remain voters go?

There is nowhere for May to hide, if the 'Remain' campaigners can get their sh1t together for 7 weeks and hammer home the real consequences of leaving the EU, including the likely breakup of the UK, with the loss of Scotland and Northern Ireland, this will be a referendum on the EU and also the existence of the UK.

Lemming

seamus wrote: »

The campaign is going to get dirty.

Videos already appearing online of May late last year absolutely ruling out any chance of a snap election on the basis that the country needed stability and not elections or game playing.

Nothing dirty about tugging on the piece of rope that she very publicly tied around her neck. I've said this before when she won the internal Tory PM race cat-fight by default ; she's got no spine. No principles. She's a political coward who brings the term 'politi9cal expediency' to new and dizzying heights of artistry.

Having videos such as the above brought out in short-order to remind everyone of what she is, well ... couldn't happen to a nicer, more honest person, full of integrity.

Suryavarman

Akrasia wrote: »

She got 65% of the vote with a 72% turnout last time, I reckon her vote will be reduced because at the time she was elected, she was anti brexit, and the 65% tory vote in 2015 was an especially large margin of victory, previous elections it has been much closer. If the constituency voted remain, where will the remain voters go?

There is nowhere for May to hide, if the 'Remain' campaigners can get their sh1t together for 7 weeks and hammer home the real consequences of leaving the EU, including the likely breakup of the UK, with the loss of Scotland and Northern Ireland, this will be a referendum on the EU and also the existence of the UK.

And it's a referendum the Tories will easily win because the main opposition party is lead by a man so grossly incompetent one would wonder if he's actually a Tory sleeper agent.

ancapailldorcha

Akrasia wrote: »

She got 65% of the vote with a 72% turnout last time, I reckon her vote will be reduced because at the time she was elected, she was anti brexit, and the 65% tory vote in 2015 was an especially large margin of victory, previous elections it has been much closer. If the constituency voted remain, where will the remain voters go?

Look at the other options though. The Greens are a far left outfit, Labour is on the way there and UKIP... Well.... A slight majority for remain in that sort of constituency says that people just didn't want to risk uncertainty as opposed to believing in the EU. I don't see the Lib Dems with a left leaning leader taking enough of her vote to make much of a difference. It's a safe seat for a reason.

Akrasia wrote: »

There is nowhere for May to hide, if the 'Remain' campaigners can get their sh1t together for 7 weeks and hammer home the real consequences of leaving the EU, including the likely breakup of the UK, with the loss of Scotland and Northern Ireland, this will be a referendum on the EU and also the existence of the UK.

A very tall order though and May knows it. She's not even going to appear in TV debates. There is a good chance that this will just be dismissed as "Project Fear" though that worked in 2014 and 2015. The media will side with the Tories though where they didn't in 2016.

seamus

Lemming wrote: »

Nothing dirty about tugging on the piece of rope that she very publicly tied around her neck.

Oh I agree entirely.

But I expect that while the Tories are going to try to use the short campaign to drive home a "better united" message about a stable government being better for the upcoming sh1tstorm, the opposition might completely ignore the issues and instead use the time to just undermine the credibility and trustworthiness of the Tories (and Labour).

That's what I mean by playing dirty; playing the man and not the ball.

That too can backfire, but given that Brexit was won on dirty tactics rather than facts, the British electorate are probably quite receptive to that kind of message at present.

demfad

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Look at the other options though. The Greens are a far left outfit, Labour is on the way there and UKIP... Well.... A slight majority for remain in that sort of constituency says that people just didn't want to risk uncertainty as opposed to believing in the EU. I don't see the Lib Dems with a left leaning leader taking enough of her vote to make much of a difference. It's a safe seat for a reason.

She is a special target for all. 54% voted remain in her constituency.
Many Tories have voted Lib Dem in by elections because they are remainers.
Her line of strong leadership (more authority) wont wash with parlaimentary democrats.

PopePalpatine

seamus wrote: »

Oh I agree entirely.

But I expect that while the Tories are going to try to use the short campaign to drive home a "better united" message about a stable government being better for the upcoming sh1tstorm, the opposition might completely ignore the issues and instead use the time to just undermine the credibility and trustworthiness of the Tories (and Labour).

That's what I mean by playing dirty; playing the man and not the ball.

That too can backfire, but given that Brexit was won on dirty tactics rather than facts, the British electorate are probably quite receptive to that kind of message at present.

Looks like the dirty tactics are back, courtesy of May's good friends Mr. Dacre & Mr. Murdoch.

If you want an image of the British future, imagine £1000+ leather shoes stamping on a human face...forever.

4068ac1elhodqr

Brexit won't matter, if a path towards Frexit starts to happen next month.

Perhaps EU is heading for 'quadrants' of NW, Cen, South and NE blocks.

Nody

Damien Rapping Hamster wrote: »

Brexit won't matter, if a path towards Frexit starts to happen next month.

Perhaps EU is heading for 'quadrants' of NW, Cen, South and NE blocks.

I would fear for the south if that happened to be honest; Germany, Nordics, Austria etc. in one power block that's fiscally strict? Yea; that would be fun times in Greece etc.

4068ac1elhodqr

Nody wrote: »

I would fear for the south if that happened to be honest; Germany, Nordics, Austria etc. in one power block that's fiscally strict? Yea; that would be fun times in Greece etc.

The South could maybe survive from tourism, not technically a quadrant, but it's a more hipster term for region. Depending on the Fr results, Brexit may become much less of an issue on June 8th.

Akrasia

Damien Rapping Hamster wrote: »

Brexit won't matter, if a path towards Frexit starts to happen next month.

Perhaps EU is heading for 'quadrants' of NW, Cen, South and NE blocks.

We'll see next week who the run-off candidates will be. If it's Macron vs Fillon, frexit will be totally off the agenda. If Melenchon or Le Pen (or both) are in the run-off, then the french might have an impact on the UK vote.

ancapailldorcha

Damien Rapping Hamster wrote: »

The South could maybe survive from tourism, not technically a quadrant, but it's a more hipster term for region. Depending on the Fr results, Brexit may become much less of an issue on June 8th.

I don't think any of the Southern regions have candidates proposing a full withdrawal though I could be wrong. The Eastern Europeans on the other hand know where their bread is buttered. Orban knows that he needs the EU and that it's beneficial. He's had plenty of time to push for a referendum but hasn't. Same for the Poles.

Akrasia wrote: »

We'll see next week who the run-off candidates will be. If it's Macron vs Fillon, frexit will be totally off the agenda. If Melenchon or Le Pen (or both) are in the run-off, then the french might have an impact on the UK vote.

Last time I looked, polls show LePen doing well in the first round before being soundly defeated. I'm not so sure about Melenchon but it's unlikely either candidate will win the popular vote representing such extreme ideologies.

Nody

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I don't think any of the Southern regions have candidates proposing a full withdrawal though I could be wrong. The Eastern Europeans on the other hand know where their bread is buttered. Orban knows that he needs the EU and that it's beneficial. He's had plenty of time to push for a referendum but hasn't. Same for the Poles.

Five stars in Italy is for leaving or a vote on it; Greece has threatened about it how many times now? Don't think any major Spanish party is out to leave atm and Portugal might have some but they got within the budget allowance so would probably not want to rock the boat.

4068ac1elhodqr

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I don't think any of the Southern regions have candidates proposing a full withdrawal though I could be wrong.

Italy & Greece are the two favs to leave next. Agree the East enjoys it's buttered bread.

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Last time I looked, polls show LePen doing well in the first round before being soundly defeated. I'm not so sure about Melenchon but it's unlikely either candidate will win the popular vote representing such extreme ideologies.

Mel is gaining popularity and has some very attractive offerings to the slightly gullible masses.

Calina

I think the French result will impact the UK vote and that a LePen victory would empower the more extreme Brexit elements to vote whereas they might not if the French election stays away from the extremes.

That being said, top four candidates are within the margin of error in polls atm so prediction is unsafe. Currently there is a polling rate of 40% undecideds. So while it looks as though Macron and LePen are leading there is still a good possibility that one or both of them doesn't make round 2.

The big loser in all this I think is Manuel Valls. I suspect he would have done a lot better than Hamon. With Hamon unlikely to make round 2 you would have to wonder what Valls might do next in terms of a) his career and b) the future of his party.

ancapailldorcha

Nody wrote: »

Five stars in Italy is for leaving or a vote on it; Greece has threatened about it how many times now? Don't think any major Spanish party is out to leave atm and Portugal might have some but they got within the budget allowance so would probably not want to rock the boat.

The M5S seems to be looking to leave the Euro moreso than the EU as a whole, for now at least. I've not read up on the situation in Greece but they voted to stay in the Euro. I don't think they want to leave despite politicians threatening to.

Capt'n Midnight

UKIP finished. They were financed by the elite who probably consider that the "useful idiots" have served their purpose. A lot of their voters will side with Tory on anti Eu issues so will help push many Tories past the post.

For labour to try to appeal to them would mean loosing support with more liberal voters .

Jayop

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

UKIP finished. They were financed by the elite who probably consider that the "useful idiots" have served their purpose. A lot of their voters will side with Tory on anti Eu issues so will help push many Tories past the post.

For labour to try to appeal to them would mean loosing support with more liberal voters .

Didn't UKIP take a lot of votes from Labour though? I don't know if they'd vote Tory regardless of the future status of UKIP. Either abstain or go back to Labout I'd have thought for that group. Of course any that were Tory voters to begin with will go back home.

ancapailldorcha

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

UKIP finished. They were financed by the elite who probably consider that the "useful idiots" have served their purpose. A lot of their voters will side with Tory on anti Eu issues so will help push many Tories past the post.

For labour to try to appeal to them would mean loosing support with more liberal voters .

Indeed. Fittingly, there seems to be 2 warring factions within UKIP, your classicly liberal free marketeers like Douglas Carswell and your far right little Englanders á la Nigel Farage and Paul Nuttall. Aaron Banks, the money man behind UKIP has followed Farage out and is looking to form UKIP 2.0.

catbear

5Star and LaPen both were for reintroducing the old currencies.........but.......keeping them linked to the Euro which in reality is nationalist tokenism. Both countries are actually cash rich societies and older voters especially still have strong memories of the regular devaluations and they don't want that in their old age.

UKip may be passed use but that doesn't mean all UKip voters are happy tories or Labour. Watch that space.

ancapailldorcha

catbear wrote: »

UKip may be passed use but that doesn't mean all UKip voters are happy tories or Labour. Watch that space.

I don't know. Nuttall lacks Farage's charisma and showmanship. He's also been seriously undermind by his poor showing in the Stoke by-election.

catbear

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I don't know. Nuttall lacks Farage's charisma and showmanship. He's also been seriously undermind by his poor showing in the Stoke by-election.

I'm not talking about Nuttall or UKip, they're done, finished.

It's where some of their voters head next that I wonder about.

ancapailldorcha

catbear wrote: »

I'm not talking about Nuttall or UKip, they're done, finished.

It's where some of their voters head next that I wonder about.

I misread your post. Oops.

Lemming

catbear wrote: »

I'm not talking about Nuttall or UKip, they're done, finished.

It's where some of their voters head next that I wonder about.

I heard a joke from a colleague I worked with in Leeds a few years ago; To give context first, this was when UKIP were snapping at the Tories heels and talk of MP defections were rife;

"What's the difference between a Tory supporter and a UKIP supporter? A glass of sherry."

I shuold imagine that the extremist side of the Tories will attract a lot of the Brexit supporters. That particular honeymoon will last until either a) the government fails to deliver a Brexit deemed hard enough and/or b) everything goes absolutely tits up and everyone is left holding the consequences and a large portion of those 17 million "well educated voters" suddenly discover that they don't like what they wished for. Those labour-leaning voters who voted for Brexit will receive an incredibly sharp and harsh reminder in why, historically, if it's good for the tories it is most certainly not good for you.

aled

I'm somewhat caught in between in terms of an opinion. Watching BBC News there is a suggestion that the Conservatives will win a huge majority. So is this good or bad? I tend to believe it is in fact good. If it turns out that the election is undecided, then what does undecided mean. Normally it means lack of surety with currency, lack of surety with jobs and in truth this is not good for any country. So maybe I'm not a huge fan of Teresa but I also understand that financial markets work on surety. As an example pensions come under question as the British flounder in indecision. So I'm just throwing that out there. Teresa May is very specific and obvious. And maybe that is not a terribly bad thing? I simply do not know. I think if the Brits vote against their current political strategy it will more likely hurt rather than help.

Jayop

It's a terribly bad thing if her policies are as bad as they are.

catbear

aled wrote: »

So I'm just throwing that out there. Teresa May is very specific and obvious. And maybe that is not a terribly bad thing? I simply do not know. I think if the Brits vote against their current political strategy it will more likely hurt rather than help.

Ok, the main priority is certainty.

After Cameron resigned last year no one was really in control of Brexit, it's perimeters were undefined and anyone could lay claim to what it entailed.

May merely became the PM by being the least worst candidate on offer in the government but at least with an election win she can claim an uncontested mandate from UKip and internal Tory rivals.

Now Brexit is still an economic own goal but a clear election ties up a lot of loose ends and actually brings some certainty back to the process. If people aren't liking the consequences of the process then there's a government they can turn to with a clear mandate to negotiate rather than the disparate mob of brexiters that barely talk to eachother.

To sum up, the door Cameron left swinging will be finally shut.

If Brexit is going really badly in a couple of years and the public mood swings to a compromise mandate then there'll be another snap election but at least the fault lines will be clear. I don't think May or the Tories can survive a public swing against Brexit, the vote was a Tory baby and they'll have to wear it. But at least they'll retain political credibility for executing the will of the people and then live to fight another day.

It's actually Labour who look most liable for the scrap heap.

Lemming

aled wrote: »

So maybe I'm not a huge fan of Teresa but I also understand that financial markets work on surety. As an example pensions come under question as the British flounder in indecision. So I'm just throwing that out there. Teresa May is very specific and obvious.

May is anything but sure, specific, and obvious. Even as Home Secretary nobody knew what she was up to because her office simply didn't leak. Or talk. She does not like being questioned, nor does she yield anything other than vacious soundbites at the best of times. She has shown herself to be rudderless and without any sense of principle or possession of a spine. She has commited several glaring U-Turns despite saying repeatedly the opposite, of which this election is the latest.

Surety? You'll find more likelihood of that watching public voting on a reality TV show.

Cameron has left a gaping hole in the national body politics, underscored by Labours absolute collapse under Corbyn. Until someone credible comes along and adopts the centre-ground with a bit of spine and conviction, that gaping hole will continue to fester & poison political discourse in the UK.

aled

Lemming wrote: »

May is anything but sure, specific, and obvious. Even as Home Secretary nobody knew what she was up to because her office simply didn't leak. Or talk. She does not like being questioned, nor does she yield anything other than vacious soundbites at the best of times. She has shown herself to be rudderless and without any sense of principle or possession of a spine.

Well in terms of spine, she certainly has shown that. As for a person who dislikes leaks well I buy that. I do question the fact that she is unwilling to be questioned. And yet I get her viewpoint. So what is her point? This is where we are going folks. Vote for it or vote against it Your choice. At least its a direction

4068ac1elhodqr

An article (written in 2016) says 'major resignations/splits are due for the following morning of the 9th June 2017', due to a trine to Uranus.
In the world of 'big data analytics', any data is still data for churn processing.

Lemming

aled wrote: »

Well in terms of spine, she certainly has shown that. As for a person who dislikes leaks well I buy that. I do question the fact that she is unwilling to be questioned. And yet I get her viewpoint. So what is her point? This is where we are going folks. Vote for it or vote against it Your choice. At least its a direction

Her point? She doesn't have one. As for direction; should you ask her which direction you shall be instructed that it will be where the compass is pointing, bedecked in blue, white, and red. What she will fail to tell you is that you are standing on top of a magnetic plate at the same time.

Capt'n Midnight

aled wrote: »

I'm somewhat caught in between in terms of an opinion. Watching BBC News there is a suggestion that the Conservatives will win a huge majority. So is this good or bad?

A majority gives May carte blanche in Parliament as she won't have to rely on backbenchers or eurosceptics or the DUP

So it gives her the option of a softer brexit, or at least less headaches trying to work out deal back home.

But since she is against the European Court of Justice and European Convention on Human Rights it's not going to be that soft.

youreadthat

Can people stop saying hard/soft Brexit? The 4 freedoms' rigidness means there is only Brexit and no Brexit. Anyone mentioning soft Brexit is fighting a proxy war for remaining.

catbear

Well Merkel is riding high in the opinion polls in Germany so when it actually comes down to the nitty gritty of brexit all of the bluster that May has relied on up to now will fall flat with Angela.

I won't be surprised if we have another election by 2019.

Lemming

youreadthat wrote: »

Can people stop saying hard/soft Brexit? The 4 freedoms' rigidness means there is only Brexit and no Brexit. Anyone mentioning soft Brexit is fighting a proxy war for remaining.

Not sure if we've discovered Liam Fox, Ruper Murdoch, or the Daily Mail editors super-secret boards account username ....

And "No". It's easier to say hard/soft/kittensoft/andrex/bog-roll/whatever Brexit because people understand the concept to which you are referring to instead of constantly having to explain what you are referring to in clinical, technical terms; limited EU membership of varying degrees or harsh reality whilst trying to get agreement from other countries for WTO membership.

Bit cynical

youreadthat wrote: »

Can people stop saying hard/soft Brexit? The 4 freedoms' rigidness means there is only Brexit and no Brexit. Anyone mentioning soft Brexit is fighting a proxy war for remaining.

Well there are countries that are not in the EU but are in Schengen, the single market and so on.

Jim2007

youreadthat wrote: »

Can people stop saying hard/soft Brexit? The 4 freedoms' rigidness means there is only Brexit and no Brexit. Anyone mentioning soft Brexit is fighting a proxy war for remaining.

In a word NO. But you could educate yourself on the options to soften the blow ranging from a Turkish style customs union to a Swiss style bilateral agreement and everything in between, so your contributions become meaningful!

Jim2007

aled wrote: »

I think if the Brits vote against their current political strategy it will more likely hurt rather than help.

What strategy? Ministers claiming you can cherry pick membership privileges on the way out... expecting the EU to put economies over principle while failing to consider the same... regular demonstrations that you fail to understand how the EU works and the treaties you signed... a failure to pay attention to detail as in omitting to a dress the Gibraltar issue despite Spain having declared their interests early on.. a failure to get even one of the remaining 27 to support their position on parallel trade talks...

In the end though it really makes no difference what the strategy is, instead it is a question of who is going to bring back the bad news - who is going to tell the British people that they are going to have to pay up their share of the EU budget or risk having their WTO membership vetoed. And that oh ja, WTO rules means you can't just go off and negotiate any kind of deal you wish in any case.

devnull

Latest YouGov Poll:
Conservatives: 48%
Labour: 24%
LibDems 12%
UKIP: 7%
Others: 9%

ancapailldorcha

There is a new isidewith quiz for this election:

http://uk.isidewith.com/political-quiz

Maximus Alexander

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

There is a new isidewith quiz for this election:

http://uk.isidewith.com/political-quiz

Heh, apparently the SNP is the party for me.

Followed by Labour and the Lib Dems.

Akrasia

Corbyn is so clueless.

His first speech is attacking millionaire tax evaders and going for populist socialism.

All he has to do is focus on brexit! The majority of UK voters want to stay in the EU. If Corbyn had single message "We will do everything we can to reverse brexit, to stay in the EU and prevent the breakup of the UK" they will control the debate and force May into answering the questions she is desperately hoping to avoid.

Forget the usual socialist rhetoric. Make this a referendum on Brexit again. And a referendum on the breaking up of the UK.

It would take a lot of the wind out of the SNP sails too, because if Scotland choose to leave the UK, they will have to re-apply for EU membership with all the uncertainty that involves.

Thats all he has to do. Remind the UK voters how sickened they felt the day after the brexit vote. Remind them of how scared they are of the uncertainty and how the people of Gibralter are facing crisis, remind them of how disgracefully the pro brexit campaign acted after they won, by admitting that they campaigned based on lies and false promises, and how they refused to even stand up and take leadership after Cameron resigned.

Forget millionaire tax evaders. This is an election on a singe issue only.