2017 UK General Election - 8th June

Nody · 19-04-2017 01:48PM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I don't think any of the Southern regions have candidates proposing a full withdrawal though I could be wrong. The Eastern Europeans on the other hand know where their bread is buttered. Orban knows that he needs the EU and that it's beneficial. He's had plenty of time to push for a referendum but hasn't. Same for the Poles.

Five stars in Italy is for leaving or a vote on it; Greece has threatened about it how many times now? Don't think any major Spanish party is out to leave atm and Portugal might have some but they got within the budget allowance so would probably not want to rock the boat.

4068ac1elhodqr · 19-04-2017 01:49PM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I don't think any of the Southern regions have candidates proposing a full withdrawal though I could be wrong.

Italy & Greece are the two favs to leave next. Agree the East enjoys it's buttered bread.

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Last time I looked, polls show LePen doing well in the first round before being soundly defeated. I'm not so sure about Melenchon but it's unlikely either candidate will win the popular vote representing such extreme ideologies.

Mel is gaining popularity and has some very attractive offerings to the slightly gullible masses.

Calina · 19-04-2017 01:52PM

I think the French result will impact the UK vote and that a LePen victory would empower the more extreme Brexit elements to vote whereas they might not if the French election stays away from the extremes.

That being said, top four candidates are within the margin of error in polls atm so prediction is unsafe. Currently there is a polling rate of 40% undecideds. So while it looks as though Macron and LePen are leading there is still a good possibility that one or both of them doesn't make round 2.

The big loser in all this I think is Manuel Valls. I suspect he would have done a lot better than Hamon. With Hamon unlikely to make round 2 you would have to wonder what Valls might do next in terms of a) his career and b) the future of his party.

ancapailldorcha · 19-04-2017 02:04PM

Nody wrote: »

Five stars in Italy is for leaving or a vote on it; Greece has threatened about it how many times now? Don't think any major Spanish party is out to leave atm and Portugal might have some but they got within the budget allowance so would probably not want to rock the boat.

The M5S seems to be looking to leave the Euro moreso than the EU as a whole, for now at least. I've not read up on the situation in Greece but they voted to stay in the Euro. I don't think they want to leave despite politicians threatening to.

Capt'n Midnight · 19-04-2017 07:47PM

UKIP finished. They were financed by the elite who probably consider that the "useful idiots" have served their purpose. A lot of their voters will side with Tory on anti Eu issues so will help push many Tories past the post.

For labour to try to appeal to them would mean loosing support with more liberal voters .

Jayop · 19-04-2017 08:00PM

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

UKIP finished. They were financed by the elite who probably consider that the "useful idiots" have served their purpose. A lot of their voters will side with Tory on anti Eu issues so will help push many Tories past the post.

For labour to try to appeal to them would mean loosing support with more liberal voters .

Didn't UKIP take a lot of votes from Labour though? I don't know if they'd vote Tory regardless of the future status of UKIP. Either abstain or go back to Labout I'd have thought for that group. Of course any that were Tory voters to begin with will go back home.

ancapailldorcha · 19-04-2017 08:01PM

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

UKIP finished. They were financed by the elite who probably consider that the "useful idiots" have served their purpose. A lot of their voters will side with Tory on anti Eu issues so will help push many Tories past the post.

For labour to try to appeal to them would mean loosing support with more liberal voters .

Indeed. Fittingly, there seems to be 2 warring factions within UKIP, your classicly liberal free marketeers like Douglas Carswell and your far right little Englanders Ã¡ la Nigel Farage and Paul Nuttall. Aaron Banks, the money man behind UKIP has followed Farage out and is looking to form UKIP 2.0.

catbear · 19-04-2017 08:01PM

5Star and LaPen both were for reintroducing the old currencies.........but.......keeping them linked to the Euro which in reality is nationalist tokenism. Both countries are actually cash rich societies and older voters especially still have strong memories of the regular devaluations and they don't want that in their old age.

UKip may be passed use but that doesn't mean all UKip voters are happy tories or Labour. Watch that space.

ancapailldorcha · 19-04-2017 08:03PM

catbear wrote: »

UKip may be passed use but that doesn't mean all UKip voters are happy tories or Labour. Watch that space.

I don't know. Nuttall lacks Farage's charisma and showmanship. He's also been seriously undermind by his poor showing in the Stoke by-election.

catbear · 19-04-2017 08:13PM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I don't know. Nuttall lacks Farage's charisma and showmanship. He's also been seriously undermind by his poor showing in the Stoke by-election.

I'm not talking about Nuttall or UKip, they're done, finished.

It's where some of their voters head next that I wonder about.

ancapailldorcha · 19-04-2017 08:15PM

catbear wrote: »

I'm not talking about Nuttall or UKip, they're done, finished.

It's where some of their voters head next that I wonder about.

I misread your post. Oops.

Lemming · 19-04-2017 08:39PM

catbear wrote: »

I'm not talking about Nuttall or UKip, they're done, finished.

It's where some of their voters head next that I wonder about.

I heard a joke from a colleague I worked with in Leeds a few years ago; To give context first, this was when UKIP were snapping at the Tories heels and talk of MP defections were rife;

"What's the difference between a Tory supporter and a UKIP supporter? A glass of sherry."

I shuold imagine that the extremist side of the Tories will attract a lot of the Brexit supporters. That particular honeymoon will last until either a) the government fails to deliver a Brexit deemed hard enough and/or b) everything goes absolutely tits up and everyone is left holding the consequences and a large portion of those 17 million "well educated voters" suddenly discover that they don't like what they wished for. Those labour-leaning voters who voted for Brexit will receive an incredibly sharp and harsh reminder in why, historically, if it's good for the tories it is most certainly not good for you.

aled · 19-04-2017 09:24PM

I'm somewhat caught in between in terms of an opinion. Watching BBC News there is a suggestion that the Conservatives will win a huge majority. So is this good or bad? I tend to believe it is in fact good. If it turns out that the election is undecided, then what does undecided mean. Normally it means lack of surety with currency, lack of surety with jobs and in truth this is not good for any country. So maybe I'm not a huge fan of Teresa but I also understand that financial markets work on surety. As an example pensions come under question as the British flounder in indecision. So I'm just throwing that out there. Teresa May is very specific and obvious. And maybe that is not a terribly bad thing? I simply do not know. I think if the Brits vote against their current political strategy it will more likely hurt rather than help.

Jayop · 19-04-2017 09:26PM

It's a terribly bad thing if her policies are as bad as they are.

catbear · 19-04-2017 09:54PM

aled wrote: »

So I'm just throwing that out there. Teresa May is very specific and obvious. And maybe that is not a terribly bad thing? I simply do not know. I think if the Brits vote against their current political strategy it will more likely hurt rather than help.

Ok, the main priority is certainty.

After Cameron resigned last year no one was really in control of Brexit, it's perimeters were undefined and anyone could lay claim to what it entailed.

May merely became the PM by being the least worst candidate on offer in the government but at least with an election win she can claim an uncontested mandate from UKip and internal Tory rivals.

Now Brexit is still an economic own goal but a clear election ties up a lot of loose ends and actually brings some certainty back to the process. If people aren't liking the consequences of the process then there's a government they can turn to with a clear mandate to negotiate rather than the disparate mob of brexiters that barely talk to eachother.

To sum up, the door Cameron left swinging will be finally shut.

If Brexit is going really badly in a couple of years and the public mood swings to a compromise mandate then there'll be another snap election but at least the fault lines will be clear. I don't think May or the Tories can survive a public swing against Brexit, the vote was a Tory baby and they'll have to wear it. But at least they'll retain political credibility for executing the will of the people and then live to fight another day.

It's actually Labour who look most liable for the scrap heap.

Lemming · 19-04-2017 10:25PM

aled wrote: »

So maybe I'm not a huge fan of Teresa but I also understand that financial markets work on surety. As an example pensions come under question as the British flounder in indecision. So I'm just throwing that out there. Teresa May is very specific and obvious.

May is anything but sure, specific, and obvious. Even as Home Secretary nobody knew what she was up to because her office simply didn't leak. Or talk. She does not like being questioned, nor does she yield anything other than vacious soundbites at the best of times. She has shown herself to be rudderless and without any sense of principle or possession of a spine. She has commited several glaring U-Turns despite saying repeatedly the opposite, of which this election is the latest.

Surety? You'll find more likelihood of that watching public voting on a reality TV show.

Cameron has left a gaping hole in the national body politics, underscored by Labours absolute collapse under Corbyn. Until someone credible comes along and adopts the centre-ground with a bit of spine and conviction, that gaping hole will continue to fester & poison political discourse in the UK.

aled · 19-04-2017 10:34PM

Lemming wrote: »

May is anything but sure, specific, and obvious. Even as Home Secretary nobody knew what she was up to because her office simply didn't leak. Or talk. She does not like being questioned, nor does she yield anything other than vacious soundbites at the best of times. She has shown herself to be rudderless and without any sense of principle or possession of a spine.

Well in terms of spine, she certainly has shown that. As for a person who dislikes leaks well I buy that. I do question the fact that she is unwilling to be questioned. And yet I get her viewpoint. So what is her point? This is where we are going folks. Vote for it or vote against it Your choice. At least its a direction

4068ac1elhodqr · 19-04-2017 10:35PM

An article (written in 2016) says 'major resignations/splits are due for the following morning of the 9th June 2017', due to a trine to Uranus.
In the world of 'big data analytics', any data is still data for churn processing.

Lemming · 19-04-2017 10:50PM

aled wrote: »

Well in terms of spine, she certainly has shown that. As for a person who dislikes leaks well I buy that. I do question the fact that she is unwilling to be questioned. And yet I get her viewpoint. So what is her point? This is where we are going folks. Vote for it or vote against it Your choice. At least its a direction

Her point? She doesn't have one. As for direction; should you ask her which direction you shall be instructed that it will be where the compass is pointing, bedecked in blue, white, and red. What she will fail to tell you is that you are standing on top of a magnetic plate at the same time.

Capt'n Midnight · 19-04-2017 10:52PM

aled wrote: »

I'm somewhat caught in between in terms of an opinion. Watching BBC News there is a suggestion that the Conservatives will win a huge majority. So is this good or bad?

A majority gives May carte blanche in Parliament as she won't have to rely on backbenchers or eurosceptics or the DUP

So it gives her the option of a softer brexit, or at least less headaches trying to work out deal back home.

But since she is against the European Court of Justice and European Convention on Human Rights it's not going to be that soft.

youreadthat · 19-04-2017 10:57PM

Can people stop saying hard/soft Brexit? The 4 freedoms' rigidness means there is only Brexit and no Brexit. Anyone mentioning soft Brexit is fighting a proxy war for remaining.

catbear · 19-04-2017 10:58PM

Well Merkel is riding high in the opinion polls in Germany so when it actually comes down to the nitty gritty of brexit all of the bluster that May has relied on up to now will fall flat with Angela.

I won't be surprised if we have another election by 2019.

Lemming · 19-04-2017 11:01PM

youreadthat wrote: »

Can people stop saying hard/soft Brexit? The 4 freedoms' rigidness means there is only Brexit and no Brexit. Anyone mentioning soft Brexit is fighting a proxy war for remaining.

Not sure if we've discovered Liam Fox, Ruper Murdoch, or the Daily Mail editors super-secret boards account username ....

And "No". It's easier to say hard/soft/kittensoft/andrex/bog-roll/whatever Brexit because people understand the concept to which you are referring to instead of constantly having to explain what you are referring to in clinical, technical terms; limited EU membership of varying degrees or harsh reality whilst trying to get agreement from other countries for WTO membership.

Bit cynical · 20-04-2017 02:32AM

youreadthat wrote: »

Can people stop saying hard/soft Brexit? The 4 freedoms' rigidness means there is only Brexit and no Brexit. Anyone mentioning soft Brexit is fighting a proxy war for remaining.

Well there are countries that are not in the EU but are in Schengen, the single market and so on.

Jim2007 · 20-04-2017 08:04AM

youreadthat wrote: »

Can people stop saying hard/soft Brexit? The 4 freedoms' rigidness means there is only Brexit and no Brexit. Anyone mentioning soft Brexit is fighting a proxy war for remaining.

In a word NO. But you could educate yourself on the options to soften the blow ranging from a Turkish style customs union to a Swiss style bilateral agreement and everything in between, so your contributions become meaningful!

Jim2007 · 20-04-2017 08:42AM

aled wrote: »

I think if the Brits vote against their current political strategy it will more likely hurt rather than help.

What strategy? Ministers claiming you can cherry pick membership privileges on the way out... expecting the EU to put economies over principle while failing to consider the same... regular demonstrations that you fail to understand how the EU works and the treaties you signed... a failure to pay attention to detail as in omitting to a dress the Gibraltar issue despite Spain having declared their interests early on.. a failure to get even one of the remaining 27 to support their position on parallel trade talks...

In the end though it really makes no difference what the strategy is, instead it is a question of who is going to bring back the bad news - who is going to tell the British people that they are going to have to pay up their share of the EU budget or risk having their WTO membership vetoed. And that oh ja, WTO rules means you can't just go off and negotiate any kind of deal you wish in any case.

devnull · 20-04-2017 09:39AM

Latest YouGov Poll:
Conservatives: 48%
Labour: 24%
LibDems 12%
UKIP: 7%
Others: 9%

ancapailldorcha · 20-04-2017 09:56AM

There is a new isidewith quiz for this election:

http://uk.isidewith.com/political-quiz

Maximus Alexander · 20-04-2017 10:08AM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

There is a new isidewith quiz for this election:

http://uk.isidewith.com/political-quiz

Heh, apparently the SNP is the party for me.

Followed by Labour and the Lib Dems.

Akrasia · 20-04-2017 10:21AM

Corbyn is so clueless.

His first speech is attacking millionaire tax evaders and going for populist socialism.

All he has to do is focus on brexit! The majority of UK voters want to stay in the EU. If Corbyn had single message "We will do everything we can to reverse brexit, to stay in the EU and prevent the breakup of the UK" they will control the debate and force May into answering the questions she is desperately hoping to avoid.

Forget the usual socialist rhetoric. Make this a referendum on Brexit again. And a referendum on the breaking up of the UK.

It would take a lot of the wind out of the SNP sails too, because if Scotland choose to leave the UK, they will have to re-apply for EU membership with all the uncertainty that involves.

Thats all he has to do. Remind the UK voters how sickened they felt the day after the brexit vote. Remind them of how scared they are of the uncertainty and how the people of Gibralter are facing crisis, remind them of how disgracefully the pro brexit campaign acted after they won, by admitting that they campaigned based on lies and false promises, and how they refused to even stand up and take leadership after Cameron resigned.

Forget millionaire tax evaders. This is an election on a singe issue only.

2017 UK General Election - 8th June

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