2017 UK General Election - 8th June

aled · 18-04-2017 11:20PM

catbear wrote: »

The same number people voted no in both Lisbon votes so not really sure what point you're making. The no support hadn't shifted so no real betrayal registered.

One vote was won, one vote was lost. If you push folks into a corner they will push back. And I think this is exactly what is going to happen here.

catbear · 18-04-2017 11:32PM

aled wrote: »

One vote was won, one vote was lost. If you push folks into a corner they will push back. And I think this is exactly what is going to happen here.

I'm still not following with your Lisbon vote link.

The rerun didn't increase the no vote so I guess the push back you mean must be those extra voters that turned up to vote yes.

aled · 18-04-2017 11:39PM

catbear wrote: »

I'm still not following with your Lisbon vote link.

The rerun didn't increase the no vote so I guess the push back you mean must be those extra voters that turned up to vote yes.

Lisbon was something we were forced into. Brexit is something folks will be forced out of. Thats the difference. While there was lack of surety about Lisbon there is no doubt about Brexit.

catbear · 18-04-2017 11:44PM

aled wrote: »

Lisbon was something we were forced into. Brexit is something folks will be forced out of. Thats the difference.

Ah no, don't see you logic. People weren't physically brought to the polling station and had their hands forced onto the ballot.

So they didn't vote the way you liked but that doesn't invalidate their choice.

Jim2007 · 18-04-2017 11:48PM

Memnoch wrote: »

As I said, it's complicated. I would prefer democratic reform. But this it seems isn't and never was on the cards. Either in the EU, Ireland or the UK.

Now I get you - if it is not going your way it is not democratic!

aled · 18-04-2017 11:58PM

Now can I post this. It is funny and provides an opinion in between the bad language
https://www.facebook.com/JonathanPieReporter/videos/vb.796085293847699/1198550576934500/?type=2&theater

catbear · 18-04-2017 11:59PM

Anyway enough of irrelevant stuff. Anyone think she might want to lose this election?

aled · 19-04-2017 12:02AM

catbear wrote: »

Anyway enough of irrelevant stuff. Anyone think she might want to lose this election?

That is a really interesting question. Because she is really putting herself out there to do exactly that. And I fail to understand why she would do that. It is very strange

catbear · 19-04-2017 12:09AM

aled wrote: »

catbear wrote: »

Anyway enough of irrelevant stuff. Anyone think she might want to lose this election?

That is a really interesting question. Because she is really putting herself out there to do exactly that. And I fail to understand why she would do that. It is very strange

Because she knows brexit in the coming couple of years is likely to be a **** sandwich with potential to dissolve the uk and she wants out?

Even libdem in a coalition would potentially reverse brexit or bust dynamic.

Jim2007 · 19-04-2017 12:25AM

Memnoch wrote: »

I understand perfectly well why ordinary people vote effectively for their own exploitation and the mass transfer of wealth to an oligarch class.

And sadly this is why liberal western democracies will cease to exist in all but name, and perhaps in time, even that before too long.

So explain this example to us ordinary people then: on one of two occasions that the Irish people rejected the proposal to drop the PR system they returned FF with a historically high majority! This was one of the examples given by the late Joe Christie to challenge the exact nonsense you are coming out with.

Mr.Micro · 19-04-2017 12:29AM

aled wrote: »

That is a really interesting question. Because she is really putting herself out there to do exactly that. And I fail to understand why she would do that. It is very strange

She is not going to lose, IMO. More than likely increase her majority. Labour as an opposition, hopeless. No contest. Corbin does not even know which decade it is, nay century even. Once she gets her majority, her Government can push though whatever they like, as it will have done validated by the election. People cannot complain after. It's going to be like a second referendum on Brexit.

4068ac1elhodqr · 19-04-2017 12:31AM

catbear wrote: »

Anyway enough of irrelevant stuff. Anyone think she might want to lose this election?

Interesting indeed, perhaps she was told to?

If the Con come across as the pro-Brexit party, would the 48% (and a few others) choose to stick their vote elsewhere, to keep their dream alive (mainly of easy and cheap summer holidays).

Brexit = the start of the end, of the entity know as the UK (via Scottish Ind).

Akrasia · 19-04-2017 09:02AM

catbear wrote: »

Because she knows brexit in the coming couple of years is likely to be a **** sandwich with potential to dissolve the uk and she wants out?

Even libdem in a coalition would potentially reverse brexit or bust dynamic.

What are the poll numbers on support for brexit at the moment?
In November a majority opposed brexit.

This general election will become another referendum on Brexit. The Tories will realise that they would lose such a referendum, so they'll be campaigning on the basis that it's too late now that article 50 has been triggered (ie, muddying the waters and confusing voters so that they'll vote against their own interests on the basis of fear-mongering and lies)

Half the Tory candidates oppose brexit, so they're not going to be that enthusiastic in pushing the 'better out than in' campaign, so it's likely that the BNP and UKIP will pick up votes from the hardcore brexit voters, while the soft tory voters will switch to Lib-dems or Labour as single issue voters, or perhaps even independent tory candidates who oppose brexit but support other conservative values.

demfad · 19-04-2017 09:05AM

catbear wrote: »

Because she knows brexit in the coming couple of years is likely to be a **** sandwich with potential to dissolve the uk and she wants out?

Even libdem in a coalition would potentially reverse brexit or bust dynamic.

Apparently May was the 'last man standing' in not wanting an election. It was her cabinet including Hammond who wanted this.

Maidenhead (her own constituency) will be targetted viciously by remainers.

catbear · 19-04-2017 09:11AM

demfad wrote: »

Apparently May was the 'last man standing' in not wanting an election. It was her cabinet including Hammond who wanted this.

Maidenhead (her own constituency) will be targetted viciously by remainers.

Interesting.

Its going to be a bruising election and that claims made on the side of buses are going to be resurrected, even by leave voters who want those claims delivered.

Sam Russell · 19-04-2017 09:12AM

demfad wrote: »

Apparently May was the 'last man standing' in not wanting an election. It was her cabinet including Hammond who wanted this.

Maidenhead (her own constituency) will be targetted viciously by remainers.

Can you imagine what would happen if she lost her seat?

ancapailldorcha · 19-04-2017 09:16AM

Sam Russell wrote: »

Can you imagine what would happen if she lost her seat?

She won't. It's a safe Tory constituency which barely voted for Remain.

seamus · 19-04-2017 09:25AM

The campaign is going to get dirty.

Videos already appearing online of May late last year absolutely ruling out any chance of a snap election on the basis that the country needed stability and not elections or game playing.

If the Lib Dems ran with the simple and truthful messages that the Tories are only interested in the good of the party and not the country, they could make big inroads. And especially if they run with the anti-elites angle. The Tories are the very definition of "elites", so if the Lib Dems can twist the Tories' own "take the power back" message back on themselves it could be very effective.

There isn't a long time to go, but six weeks is more than enough time to lose 21 percentage points if the opposition can manipulate the public.

Akrasia · 19-04-2017 09:32AM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

She won't. It's a safe Tory constituency which barely voted for Remain.

She got 65% of the vote with a 72% turnout last time, I reckon her vote will be reduced because at the time she was elected, she was anti brexit, and the 65% tory vote in 2015 was an especially large margin of victory, previous elections it has been much closer. If the constituency voted remain, where will the remain voters go?

There is nowhere for May to hide, if the 'Remain' campaigners can get their sh1t together for 7 weeks and hammer home the real consequences of leaving the EU, including the likely breakup of the UK, with the loss of Scotland and Northern Ireland, this will be a referendum on the EU and also the existence of the UK.

Lemming · 19-04-2017 11:38AM

seamus wrote: »

The campaign is going to get dirty.

Videos already appearing online of May late last year absolutely ruling out any chance of a snap election on the basis that the country needed stability and not elections or game playing.

Nothing dirty about tugging on the piece of rope that she very publicly tied around her neck. I've said this before when she won the internal Tory PM race cat-fight by default ; she's got no spine. No principles. She's a political coward who brings the term 'politi9cal expediency' to new and dizzying heights of artistry.

Having videos such as the above brought out in short-order to remind everyone of what she is, well ... couldn't happen to a nicer, more honest person, full of integrity.

Suryavarman · 19-04-2017 11:38AM

Akrasia wrote: »

She got 65% of the vote with a 72% turnout last time, I reckon her vote will be reduced because at the time she was elected, she was anti brexit, and the 65% tory vote in 2015 was an especially large margin of victory, previous elections it has been much closer. If the constituency voted remain, where will the remain voters go?

There is nowhere for May to hide, if the 'Remain' campaigners can get their sh1t together for 7 weeks and hammer home the real consequences of leaving the EU, including the likely breakup of the UK, with the loss of Scotland and Northern Ireland, this will be a referendum on the EU and also the existence of the UK.

And it's a referendum the Tories will easily win because the main opposition party is lead by a man so grossly incompetent one would wonder if he's actually a Tory sleeper agent.

ancapailldorcha · 19-04-2017 11:48AM

Akrasia wrote: »

She got 65% of the vote with a 72% turnout last time, I reckon her vote will be reduced because at the time she was elected, she was anti brexit, and the 65% tory vote in 2015 was an especially large margin of victory, previous elections it has been much closer. If the constituency voted remain, where will the remain voters go?

Look at the other options though. The Greens are a far left outfit, Labour is on the way there and UKIP... Well.... A slight majority for remain in that sort of constituency says that people just didn't want to risk uncertainty as opposed to believing in the EU. I don't see the Lib Dems with a left leaning leader taking enough of her vote to make much of a difference. It's a safe seat for a reason.

Akrasia wrote: »

There is nowhere for May to hide, if the 'Remain' campaigners can get their sh1t together for 7 weeks and hammer home the real consequences of leaving the EU, including the likely breakup of the UK, with the loss of Scotland and Northern Ireland, this will be a referendum on the EU and also the existence of the UK.

A very tall order though and May knows it. She's not even going to appear in TV debates. There is a good chance that this will just be dismissed as "Project Fear" though that worked in 2014 and 2015. The media will side with the Tories though where they didn't in 2016.

seamus · 19-04-2017 12:04PM

Lemming wrote: »

Nothing dirty about tugging on the piece of rope that she very publicly tied around her neck.

Oh I agree entirely.

But I expect that while the Tories are going to try to use the short campaign to drive home a "better united" message about a stable government being better for the upcoming sh1tstorm, the opposition might completely ignore the issues and instead use the time to just undermine the credibility and trustworthiness of the Tories (and Labour).

That's what I mean by playing dirty; playing the man and not the ball.

That too can backfire, but given that Brexit was won on dirty tactics rather than facts, the British electorate are probably quite receptive to that kind of message at present.

demfad · 19-04-2017 12:26PM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Look at the other options though. The Greens are a far left outfit, Labour is on the way there and UKIP... Well.... A slight majority for remain in that sort of constituency says that people just didn't want to risk uncertainty as opposed to believing in the EU. I don't see the Lib Dems with a left leaning leader taking enough of her vote to make much of a difference. It's a safe seat for a reason.

She is a special target for all. 54% voted remain in her constituency.
Many Tories have voted Lib Dem in by elections because they are remainers.
Her line of strong leadership (more authority) wont wash with parlaimentary democrats.

PopePalpatine · 19-04-2017 12:29PM

seamus wrote: »

Oh I agree entirely.

But I expect that while the Tories are going to try to use the short campaign to drive home a "better united" message about a stable government being better for the upcoming sh1tstorm, the opposition might completely ignore the issues and instead use the time to just undermine the credibility and trustworthiness of the Tories (and Labour).

That's what I mean by playing dirty; playing the man and not the ball.

That too can backfire, but given that Brexit was won on dirty tactics rather than facts, the British electorate are probably quite receptive to that kind of message at present.

Looks like the dirty tactics are back, courtesy of May's good friends Mr. Dacre & Mr. Murdoch.

If you want an image of the British future, imagine Â£1000+ leather shoes stamping on a human face...forever.

4068ac1elhodqr · 19-04-2017 12:36PM

Brexit won't matter, if a path towards Frexit starts to happen next month.

Perhaps EU is heading for 'quadrants' of NW, Cen, South and NE blocks.

Nody · 19-04-2017 01:03PM

Damien Rapping Hamster wrote: »

Brexit won't matter, if a path towards Frexit starts to happen next month.

Perhaps EU is heading for 'quadrants' of NW, Cen, South and NE blocks.

I would fear for the south if that happened to be honest; Germany, Nordics, Austria etc. in one power block that's fiscally strict? Yea; that would be fun times in Greece etc.

4068ac1elhodqr · 19-04-2017 01:13PM

Nody wrote: »

I would fear for the south if that happened to be honest; Germany, Nordics, Austria etc. in one power block that's fiscally strict? Yea; that would be fun times in Greece etc.

The South could maybe survive from tourism, not technically a quadrant, but it's a more hipster term for region. Depending on the Fr results, Brexit may become much less of an issue on June 8th.

Akrasia · 19-04-2017 01:17PM

Damien Rapping Hamster wrote: »

Brexit won't matter, if a path towards Frexit starts to happen next month.

Perhaps EU is heading for 'quadrants' of NW, Cen, South and NE blocks.

We'll see next week who the run-off candidates will be. If it's Macron vs Fillon, frexit will be totally off the agenda. If Melenchon or Le Pen (or both) are in the run-off, then the french might have an impact on the UK vote.

ancapailldorcha · 19-04-2017 01:38PM

Damien Rapping Hamster wrote: »

The South could maybe survive from tourism, not technically a quadrant, but it's a more hipster term for region. Depending on the Fr results, Brexit may become much less of an issue on June 8th.

I don't think any of the Southern regions have candidates proposing a full withdrawal though I could be wrong. The Eastern Europeans on the other hand know where their bread is buttered. Orban knows that he needs the EU and that it's beneficial. He's had plenty of time to push for a referendum but hasn't. Same for the Poles.

Akrasia wrote: »

We'll see next week who the run-off candidates will be. If it's Macron vs Fillon, frexit will be totally off the agenda. If Melenchon or Le Pen (or both) are in the run-off, then the french might have an impact on the UK vote.

Last time I looked, polls show LePen doing well in the first round before being soundly defeated. I'm not so sure about Melenchon but it's unlikely either candidate will win the popular vote representing such extreme ideologies.

2017 UK General Election - 8th June

Comments