Amateur forecasting

amandstu · 01-03-2017 1:36pm #1

Today we are expecting very strong winds and rain. If I look at the charts or visit the met.ie website it gives me an approximate time of arrival and the likely areas affected.

Can I supplement this information by my own observations?

For example can I assume a spot of light rain is a presager of the storm to come?

In general how can we use our own observations to supplement the weather forecasts?

sryanbruen · 04-03-2017 7:42pm

amandstu wrote: »

Today we are expecting very strong winds and rain. If I look at the charts or visit the met.ie website it gives me an approximate time of arrival and the likely areas affected.

Can I supplement this information by my own observations?

For example can I assume a spot of light rain is a presager of the storm to come?

In general how can we use our own observations to supplement the weather forecasts?

I'm only seeing this now

When making forecasts, you have to use evidence like long range models to use as a guide for proving your observations.

Our own observations for a weather forecast can't just be made like that (:finger snap:), you need to have something to use as a guide to prove your observation or else, you aren't supported well (doesn't necessarily mean that you'd be wrong then that's based on luck) and your observations will be an outlier with the forecasts made.

amandstu · 05-03-2017 2:01am

sryanbruen wrote: »

I'm only seeing this now

When making forecasts, you have to use evidence like long range models to use as a guide for proving your observations.

Our own observations for a weather forecast can't just be made like that (:finger snap:), you need to have something to use as a guide to prove your observation or else, you aren't supported well (doesn't necessarily mean that you'd be wrong then that's based on luck) and your observations will be an outlier with the forecasts made.

If you see a very distinct cold front approaching can it not be said that you have fortuitously a better(more accurate timewise) forecast that what
you would have simply from RTE ?

Are there any other ways to "top up" the met forecasts ?(obviously we can all see rain in the distance but not always know if it will be a direct hit . Also I always assume swallows skimming the ground means rain is likely )

Gaoth Laidir · 05-03-2017 10:26am

amandstu wrote: »

Today we are expecting very strong winds and rain. If I look at the charts or visit the met.ie website it gives me an approximate time of arrival and the likely areas affected.

Can I supplement this information by my own observations?

For example can I assume a spot of light rain is a presager of the storm to come?

In general how can we use our own observations to supplement the weather forecasts?

If you live near an airport then TAFs give a much more detailed breakdown of the time line of weather conditions for that immediate vicinity. Which airport is nearest to you?

Iancar29 · 05-03-2017 12:22pm

Radar?

amandstu · 05-03-2017 12:55pm

Iancar29 wrote: »

Radar?

Yes radar is much more fine tuned than the 3 hour snapshots on the BBC forecasts.(15 min vs 3 hours)

I suppose I am being greedy expecting anything much better but no doubt we will see improvements on that is the near /medium future as satellites get even more capable.

Still it is nice to imagine we can glean further information by looking up at the sky . It is great fun watching the weather arrive especially if it is a turn for the better.

Iancar29 · 05-03-2017 1:00pm

You can get 5min radar updates, example netweather extra subscription.

amandstu · 05-03-2017 1:09pm

Iancar29 wrote: »

You can get 5min radar updates, example netweather extra subscription.

They will be marketing smart raincoats next

Ranjo · 23-03-2017 10:33am

I'm currently logging temperature, wind speed and pressure in my area on an hourly basis. I've put together some charts as a bit of a personalised weather view & trend.

Other than trending these values can I use them to predict anything?

For e.g. since 22/3 early morning, the air pressure has been on a consistent incline from 1000 mb to 1020 where is stands now. Is there anything I can build in, either as an actual calculation or just observational to come to some kind of conclusion?

JCX BXC · 25-03-2017 6:08pm

Iancar29 wrote: »

You can get 5min radar updates, example netweather extra subscription.

No longer subscription, it's standard now.

However the 5mins radar updates I find horribly inaccurate, only the 15min intervals are accurate, the other two seem to be complete estimates, and the percip can't seem to move diagonally, only horizontal or vertical.

amandstu · 26-03-2017 11:33am

Ranjo wrote: »

I'm currently logging temperature, wind speed and pressure in my area on an hourly basis. I've put together some charts as a bit of a personalised weather view & trend.

Other than trending these values can I use them to predict anything?

For e.g. since 22/3 early morning, the air pressure has been on a consistent incline from 1000 mb to 1020 where is stands now. Is there anything I can build in, either as an actual calculation or just observational to come to some kind of conclusion?

Maybe in the future you will be able to log into a met website and plug in your latest very real time and very local values and tweak the overall forecast -a bit like a freelance weather station.

However the latest radar charts seem to give very accurate and very local forecasts even if ,as JCX BXC says the 5 minute updates are strangely not very accurate.

Amateur forecasting

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