Silicon Valley billionaires buy underground bunkers preparing for the apocalypse

WhiteMemento9 · 27-01-2017 06:52PM #1

Tech entrepreneurs fearful artificial intelligence will displace so many jobs there will be a revolt against those responsible

The headline is sensationalist but I listened to a podcast recently in which one of the top hedge fund investors in silicone valley says even with increasing media coverage people outside of the industry have no idea what is coming.

ALTMAN: I think there’s a sense that technological job destruction is accelerating more than people outside of Silicon Valley realize. And I think this is mostly narrow applications of A.I., but it’s going happen for lots of other reasons. So every time we’ve had a major societal revolution of some sort — we had the Agricultural Revolution, we had the Industrial Revolution — where anytime you have a significant fraction of human jobs get eliminated in a relatively short period of time, eventually humans do figure out new things to do. But there’s quite a lot of disruption while they’re happening.

Oxford University, BoA, and Merrill Lynch all with similar assumptions that 47% of the workforce will lose their jobs to automation and AI in the coming decade.

Are people worried about the future of jobs or do they think we will find solutions to the coming problems?

gifted · 27-01-2017 06:54PM

It's Friday...prepare for the weekend....woo hoo

The_Valeyard · 27-01-2017 07:03PM

I for one welcome our AI overlords

Ferrari3600 · 27-01-2017 07:14PM

Hence the importance of social protections...collective bargaining...trades unions, etc..all the things the reich wing trollboys on boards.ie sneer at.

Ronaldinho · 27-01-2017 07:20PM

Ferrari3600 wrote: »

Hence the importance of social protections...collective bargaining...trades unions, etc..all the things the reich wing trollboys on boards.ie sneer at.

Collective bargaining and trade unions aren't going to cut it if we are to seriously deal with this.

Imho it will be the single biggest issue for my generation.

themagiconion · 27-01-2017 07:23PM

The exact future that Roddenberry talked about in star trek. The future is looking promising, bring it on. No more reliance on money, just better yourself will be the token of the day.

pedigree 6 · 27-01-2017 07:27PM

eeguy · 27-01-2017 07:31PM

Ferrari3600 wrote: »

Hence the importance of social protections...collective bargaining...trades unions, etc..all the things the reich wing trollboys on boards.ie sneer at.

When someone invents a machine to do your job are you really going to go on strike?

Taxi drivers in NY wrote a letter proposing a 50 year ban on autonomous cars, but there's no way anyone will listen to them.
Here's an interesting articles by Forbes: http://www.forbes.com/sites/adigaskell/2017/01/17/why-you-should-get-busy-adapting/#17d290d8e980

“It was bizarre reading some of the interview quotes, but I guess ignorance can be bliss,” the authors say. “People think their jobs are harder than they actually are. Often jobs actually consist of a set of repetitive actions that can be codified and done by a robot. This applies to many jobs currently considered high skill, like accountants, lawyers and researchers. There is report writing software now available that is practically flawless.”

Most people think it'll be decades before robots take their jobs. The people who build the robots say it's just a matter of years.

fly_agaric · 27-01-2017 07:32PM

themagiconion wrote: »

The exact future that Roddenberry talked about in star trek. The future is looking promising, bring it on.

Just fairly good, more "general" AI, smart robots and machines that can put humans out of a job is not enough to get to that future.
Unlimited energy (antimatter in Star Trek) and unlimited manufacturing capacity that can really be located anywhere (replicators in Star Trek) are also needed. Can't see either of those on the horizon for quite a while.
Anyway the way capitalism operates, aspects of human nature etc seem to make something more dystopian likely!

suicide_circus · 27-01-2017 07:34PM

To paraphrase Bill Burr, when the shıt hits the fan people are gonna start walking towards gated communities.

LeinsterDub · 27-01-2017 07:34PM

Some people would be better of accepting that death comes to us all and using their billions to improve the lifes of others

batistuta9 · 27-01-2017 07:40PM

AI advancements & looking further ahead, the need to leave earth is going to require a massive ideological shift.
Something like a worldwide commune, money will be useless.

Well they let that happen?

Jurgen Klopp · 27-01-2017 08:05PM

A prepper bunker might be ok in natural disasters or a general civil war.

Wouldn't fancy my chances having tens of millions baying for my blood especially given a lot probably helped build the bunkers in the first place along with all the other vast experiences and know how to break in to it eventually.

themagiconion · 27-01-2017 08:07PM

fly_agaric wrote: »

Just fairly good, more "general" AI, smart robots and machines that can put humans out of a job is not enough to get to that future.
Unlimited energy (antimatter in Star Trek) and unlimited manufacturing capacity that can really be located anywhere (replicators in Star Trek) are also needed. Can't see either of those on the horizon for quite a while.
Anyway the way capitalism operates, aspects of human nature etc seem to make something more dystopian likely!

Ah of course, but it's the start right now. Eight years and they say the roll out of driverless cars and I'd say trucks will be out for the public and 8 years isn't that long of a time. And turning hydrogen into a metal is already on its way to help with the space program and it's advancing very fast also.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/hydrogen-metal-revolution-technology-space-rockets-superconductor-harvard-university-a7548221.html

eeguy · 27-01-2017 08:14PM

themagiconion wrote: »

Ah of course, but it's the start right now. Eight years and they say the roll out of driverless cars and I'd say trucks will be out for the public and 8 years isn't that long of a time. And turning hydrogen into a metal is already on its way to help with the space program and it's advancing very fast also.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/hydrogen-metal-revolution-technology-space-rockets-superconductor-harvard-university-a7548221.html

Link from the same article

Physicists might have made a mistake in claiming to have turned hydrogen into a metal, experts say

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/hydrogen-metal-revolution-technology-truth-criticism-problems-discussion-a7549056.html

Jurgen Klopp · 27-01-2017 08:16PM

The sad thing is a lot of people think it's gonna be a future where people pursue the arts or their passion and all that jazz.

Unfortunately I'd be fairly certain without a revolution it will be a case of massive slums returning for those outta work.

People mention universal income and all that but if the work force is almost halved how are the remaining half to keep a nations services and infrastructure going through tax. Police and hospitals, etc. People are already squeezed, how will the remaining workers keep that going and also provide a universal income.

suicide_circus · 27-01-2017 08:19PM

The talk of a star trek style utopian future with no money in which we devote ourselves to life long learning is never supported by any definite road map. A mad max type scenario is far more likely imo.

Akrasia · 27-01-2017 08:22PM

Ai and automation could lead to a world of abundance for all, or it could lead to a Hellish dystopia where everyone is dirt poor except for a tiny cabal of trillionaires who own everything.

It depends on how much wealth redistribution there is. Right wing laissez-faire economics are obsolete.

eeguy · 27-01-2017 08:24PM

Jurgen Klopp wrote: »

The sad thing is a lot of people think it's gonna be a future where people pursue the arts or their passion and all that jazz.

Unfortunately I'd be fairly certain without a revolution it will be a case of massive slums returning for those outta work.

People mention universal income and all that but if the work force is almost halved how are the remaining half to keep a nations services and infrastructure going through tax. Police and hospitals, etc. People are already squeezed, how will the remaining workers keep that going and also provide a universal income.

That's the million euro question. Can the government implement measures to offset the coming wave of automation before it actually hits? I highly doubt it.

There's not going to be an easy transition. People compare automation to the likes of the farm workers becoming factory workers during the agricultural revolution and say "Sure they'll just find jobs elsewhere".
The difference is that people who did routine work on farms, also did routine work in factories. Automation is perfect to replace people who do routine work, which in fairness, is most of us. If your job can be broken down into a set of repetitive tasks, then a computer can do it.

Here's a good TED talk calling on people with wealth to start using it for good.
"Beware, fellow plutocrats, the pitchforks are coming"
https://www.ted.com/talks/nick_hanauer_beware_fellow_plutocrats_the_pitchforks_are_coming

WhiteMemento9 · 27-01-2017 08:30PM

Akrasia wrote: »

Ai and automation could lead to a world of abundance for all, or it could lead to a Hellish dystopia where everyone is dirt poor except for a tiny cabal of trillionaires who own everything.

It depends on how much wealth redistribution there is. Right wing laissez-faire economics are obsolete.

Some people would say we already live in that world when the world's eight richest people have same wealth as poorest 50%.

Jurgen Klopp · 27-01-2017 08:31PM

eeguy wrote: »

That's the million euro question.

There's not going to be an easy transition. People compare automation to the likes of the farm workers becoming factory workers during the agricultural revolution and factory workers becoming service workers in the industrial revolution and say "Sure they'll just find jobs elsewhere".

The difference is that people who did routine work on farms, also did routine work in factories and routine work in services. Automation is perfect to replace people who do routine work, which in fairness, is most of us. If your job can be broken down into a set of repetitive tasks, then a computer can do it.

That's just it, when I hear people say people got new jobs after the industrial revolution it will be the same now.

Well back then nearly everything was manual, even with trains arriving people were needed in lots of other manual jobs. A very important thing to remember is women didn't work compared to today that's double the amount of jobs needs nowadays.

If 50% are laid off realistically how many jobs are gonna be available in maintaining AI devices maybe a couple percent if we are lucky.

Could very well be a case of it goes so badly AI is moot as there's such a break down it won't matter. Half get laid off the other half can't upkeep services and money and infrastructure collapse.

People keep saying it's stopping progress but I firmly believe unless there is a big change in society and the money system it may require severe restrictions on AI at a UN type level.

eeguy · 27-01-2017 08:38PM

WhiteMemento9 wrote: »

Some people would say we already live in that world when the world's eight richest people have same wealth as poorest 50%.

In fairness, Bill Gates, Warren Buffet are on that list, two men who've pledged to give their entire fortunes to charity.
Gates has given $32 billion to charity in the past.
Zuckerburg and Ellison are part of the Giving Pledge, and pledged to give half their fortunes to charity.
Jeff Bezos is building a space company.

Also, their worth is derived from their stakes in hundreds of companies and ventures. The money isn't just resting in the account.

If your house is worth a million euro and you have a €100 in the bank, you can't live a millionaire lifestyle.

whatawaster81 · 27-01-2017 08:43PM

Robots don't pay taxes. I'm sure they'll find something for us to do.

suicide_circus · 27-01-2017 08:49PM

Robot tax.

Tax the absolute shıt out of all AI and robots to pay for the social welfare of all the workers they put out of a job.

NIMAN · 27-01-2017 08:51PM

When I was younger I heard all this stuff before on Tomorrows World in the late 70s/early 80s, about how we would get to 2000 and robots would be doing everything for us.

Here we are 40 years later and we are all still working, paying taxes, same social issues exist now as did back then. You only have to look at old news reports, and see that society, for all its technological progress, still has not solved many basic issues.

I also think that in another 40 years we will still all be working, paying our taxes, worrying about things maybe we shouldn't worry about etc.

I mean do you honestly think that all the kids being born now will have no jobs to do when they get to 30, 40, 50? They will have.

Calibos · 27-01-2017 08:52PM

whatawaster81 wrote: »

Robots don't pay taxes. I'm sure they'll find something for us to do.

Nor buy the products they make or transport.

themagiconion · 27-01-2017 08:52PM

eeguy wrote: »

Link from the same article

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/hydrogen-metal-revolution-technology-truth-criticism-problems-discussion-a7549056.html

Good observation. I missed that one.

DEFTLEFTHAND · 27-01-2017 08:57PM

Ferrari3600 wrote: »

Hence the importance of social protections...collective bargaining...trades unions, etc..all the things the reich wing trollboys on boards.ie sneer at.

Social programmes need a tax base to support them.

No point in having a union when the industry is no more. Take the once mighty Projectionist Union in the USA for eg. They fought hard and long but couldn't save the profession from the advancement of technology.

WhiteMemento9 · 27-01-2017 08:59PM

eeguy wrote: »

In fairness, Bill Gates, Warren Buffet are on that list, two men who've pledged to give their entire fortunes to charity.
Gates has given $32 billion to charity in the past.
Zuckerburg and Ellison are part of the Giving Pledge, and pledged to give half their fortunes to charity.
Jeff Bezos is building a space company.

Also, their worth is derived from their stakes in hundreds of companies and ventures. The money isn't just resting in the account.

If your house is worth a million euro and you have a €100 in the bank, you can't live a millionaire lifestyle.

I have major problems with how all that is reported but besides that a system shouldn't exist where the need arises for this to happen. How have we got a point that allows this to be the world in the first place? People like simple narratives and stories so we look at that top eight under the microscope and laud the good deeds of the few forgetting how it should never have happened in the first place and that if you extrapolate that out to the money vacuum at the top as a whole beyond those eight to lets say the top 10%, most of them are not going around giving money away but this narrative that you jump to in defense of this ridiculousness which betrays all the truth.

I think we are far too detached in the West from the reality of that 50%. They are living in a dystopian nightmare. We have become desensitised to that truth because of the over saturation of those numbers. People nearly roll there eyes at this stage when someone brings up those kinds of statistics. These are real people the same as me and you and everyone else. People should not forget that a large majority of them live in abject poverty to maintain our lifestyles by exploiting them in which we are all tacitly complicit to some degree.

eeguy · 27-01-2017 09:04PM

WhiteMemento9 wrote: »

I have major problems with how all that is reported but besides that a system shouldn't exist where the need arises for this to happen. How have we got a point that allows this to be the world in the first place? People like simple narratives and stories so we look at that top eight under the microscope and laud the good deeds of the few forgetting how it should never have happened in the first place and that if you extrapolate that out to the money vacuum at the top as a whole beyond those eight to lets say the top 10%, most of them are not going around giving money away but this narrative that you jump to in defense of this ridiculousness which betrays all the truth.

I don't think you really understand how this happened.
Jeff Bezos pays himself $80k a year, much less than most of the top brass in this country. Yet he's worth $65 billion.

He's worth that because he's built a huge multiplatform company that's one of the biggest employers in the US. It's not just Amazon shopping, but a hardware, software, cloud computing, robotics, AI and space company.

His worth is what some economist estimated that all these companies are worth if you wanted to buy them from Jeff. It's not like he's stolen $65 billion from people around the world. That money wouldn't magically appear in peoples pockets if he never started Amazon. It's more that he's created a business empire that's worth that.

WhiteMemento9 wrote: »

I think we are far too detached in the West from the reality of that 50%. They are living in a dystopian nightmare. We have become desensitised to that truth because of the over saturation of those numbers. People nearly roll there eyes at this stage when someone brings up those kinds of statistics. These are real people the same as me and you and everyone else. People should not forget that a large majority of them live in abject poverty to maintain our lifestyles by exploiting them in which we are all tacitly complicit to some degree.

You're 100% right, but to acknowledge that fact we'd have to drastically lower our own standards of living and no one wants to do that. Say if you gave people the option: Either buy an iPhone for €600 or €1000. The €600 euro option pays the worker €2 an hour while the €1000 option pays him €12 an hour, how many people do you think would pay the extra €400 quid?

Sam Kade · 27-01-2017 09:08PM

NIMAN wrote: »

When I was younger I heard all this stuff before on Tomorrows World in the late 70s/early 80s, about how we would get to 2000 and robots would be doing everything for us.

Here we are 40 years later and we are all still working, paying taxes, same social issues exist now as did back then. You only have to look at old news reports, and see that society, for all its technological progress, still has not solved many basic issues.

I also think that in another 40 years we will still all be working, paying our taxes, worrying about things maybe we shouldn't worry about etc.

I mean do you honestly think that all the kids being born now will have no jobs to do when they get to 30, 40, 50? They will have.

The man in the wheelchair started this scare they really need to stop believing everything he spouts, http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-30290540

Silicon Valley billionaires buy underground bunkers preparing for the apocalypse

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