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Could something or someone like Brexit or Trump happen in Ireland?

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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,379 ✭✭✭newacc2015


    _Kaiser_ wrote: »
    I agree completely with the latter point. The EU has shown in the last 8/9 years, how out of touch it is with the reality its citizens live in, and how business and political interests mean those same citizens are no more than expendable economic assets if it suits the interests of (primarily) the Germans. Rules that are inflexible and punishing to countries like Greece and even Ireland can be bent, ignored or rewritten at a whim if it suits those who the EU is really setup to benefit.

    Im sorry, but do people completely forget about how Ireland was a complete ****hole until he joined the EU? Most Irish are completely happy with the EU(we are still one of the most supportive nations of the EU) as they remember life before it. Life in the EU might not be perfect, but it is better than living in a country where the economy was in a near constant state of recession for several decades and where income was a fraction of the EU average.

    The EU forced us to do things we didn't like such as giving women equal rights when it come to employment or by not criminally prosecuting the gays(1993 which is nice to know we were ahead of giving them rights before Texas in 2003, but they were forced to do it too so its not too great on that front either).

    The Euro was a disaster in Ireland, as we didn't have a proper central bank regulating the financial services industry. We now do and we are preventing another banking crisis. We are the only ones to blame for the banking crisis as we didn't regulate our banks.

    The EU is not perfect. But for a small nation, the benefits far outweigh the negatives. We have access to the largest market in the World (lets see how it goes for the UK). We have about 10% of the nation working directly for American firms who are only here as we have access to the EU.

    But hey lets focus on the migrant crisis that doesn't affect us and the EU stopping us going into never ending boom and bust cycles by monitoring our spending. Sure our stellar economy and human rights record before 1973 shows we don't need the EU! :rolleyes:
    _Kaiser_ wrote: »
    In other words, we don't really have a great selection to choose from outside of the Big 2 (who are both incidentally completely beholden to the EU anyway seeing as their TDs benefit handsomely from it after national politics has had enough of them), and between them the cycle repeats endlessly... FF are irresponsible, populist and prone to shady dealings - but everyone puts up with it because "property ladder", "100% mortgage" etc - and then when the crash happens, FG come in and prove to be just as bad if not worse (Irish Water mess, Garda scandals and the same old cronyism and waste that people crticise FF for).

    What exactly has FG done wrong? I can't quite wrap my head around how you think they are on par with FF. FG didn't bankrupt the nation or blow all the cash during one of the largest economic booms in economic history. FF signed the nation up to IW, which FG were forced to follow through on(but hey who cares about the facts right?) Your point is literally FG are like FF, so therefore they are bad. One bankrupted the nation and one cleaned up the mess. But the one who cleaned up the mess is worse than the one who bankrupted the nation due to the odd scandal? :rolleyes:

    Trump got elected as dumb people don't realise when they have it good. Support among Trump has ridiculously high in states where unemployment was 2/3%. Britain has one of the strongest economies in Europe(probably the strongest) yet wanted to leave the EU as it was dragging them down? Ireland has one of the fastest growing economies in Europe and relatively low unemployment for an EU state. Yet you swear we had an economy on par with Zimbabwe.


  • Registered Users Posts: 619 ✭✭✭macnug


    I think if it was going to happen it would have been in the last general election after the big recession. What is going to be interesting is how we deal with the impact brexit is going to have on the north and Scotland. Imagine if in 20 years time (maybe sooner) Ireland is reunited and Scotland quits the Uk?


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,533 ✭✭✭AnGaelach


    I think Michael O'Leary would have a very good chance of actually becoming President if he wanted to run. He knows how to get media attention, he has the money, he appeals to those in FG (and I would think, if FF's candidate gets knocked out, FF voters), and does enough plain talking to cut through the bolloxology of politicians. He doesn't have the same baggage as Denis O'Brien (as far as I know he hasn't been getting up to much corrupt stuff, and he pays all his taxes in Ireland) and is generally more likeable.

    Will it happen? I don't think so.

    I do think Bertie also has a good chance of becoming President if he was to run after Michael D.


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,403 ✭✭✭✭Galwayguy35


    There is an opening for a party from the Right in Ireland IMO, people aren't happy that we're letting in people who haven't been properly vetted and will be spending a fortune looking after them for years to come.

    SF and the Independents are also in favour of this free for all that won't end well for us I fear.

    Europe asked us to take in a few hundred, we're a small country just out of recession and it was a reasonable request that nobody had and issue with but it's gone out of control at this stage.

    If the Liberals keep up this madness then what they fear most will happen, Right wing ideals will gain support here.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 12,078 ✭✭✭✭LordSutch


    Shinners in. Gerry or Mary Lou for Taoiseach.

    I guess that would be the ultimate nightmare on a local basis, but unless the whole country lurches to the left and becomes Provo apologists, then it can't happen. Thank God.


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  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Iwasfrozen wrote: »
    Yes, it could happen. Even on boards there are a lot of nationalists, xenophobes, bigots. Ireland is not immune to people's ignorance and the 1916 celebrations were a little too militaristic in my view.

    Which reminds me that Boards always has its cultural cringe Hibernophobes; people whose sole real problem with the above is when they are Irish. British variants of same are entirely acceptable, and defended here by them ad nauseum.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,950 ✭✭✭ChikiChiki


    I wouldn't call us docile to be honest. History has shown that we will rise up when needed. I would however say that we are fruatratingly apathetic when it comes to political matters. Most simply couldn't give a ****e as long as they've money in their pocket for pints and to watch the footie at the end of the week.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 613 ✭✭✭Radiosonde


    Sinn Fein are part of a power sharing executive in Northern Ireland, Martin McGuinness has been known to rub shoulders with the Queen and travel to the States to try drum up investment. They are part of the political mainstream now. SF in a coalition government here wouldn't be a Trump/Brexit style shock at this stage.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 613 ✭✭✭Radiosonde


    There is also a common feature of the Trump/Brexit thing that doesn't apply here: both the UK and US are global powers, and both likely in different stages of decline. There's an arrogance there that comes from being a leading light in the world, that you can cast off the shackles of the EU and fare better alone, or force Mexico to build you a 2,000 mile wall. Both are probably to some extent responses to a sense that their power is threatened or gradually dwindling.

    In Ireland, we're unlikely to develop such an inflated sense of our own capacities that we would sever ties with Europe. If we do produce our own Trump, it would likely be a maverick from inside an established party (*cough* Fianna Fail *cough cough*) rather than someone from a fringe radical party. SF are probably lukewarm about the EU, but wouldn't share the anti-immigrant sentiments of Farage or Trump, or indeed the enthusiasm for all these wheeler dealer/Del Boy Trotter international trade deals they claim their countries should be doing. Indeed, the only serious suggestion I've seen so far from an Irish public figure that we ought to consider Irexit is from Ireland's former ambassador to Canada, and predictably enough it hinges on misguided concerns about our relationship with the UK being more important than our relationship with the rest of the EU.


  • Registered Users Posts: 20,087 ✭✭✭✭El_Duderino 09


    macnug wrote:
    I think if it was going to happen it would have been in the last general election after the big recession.

    Well people did vote in a very unusual way after the recession. The fall of ff and rise of independents.

    Now people are sick of the guts of a decade of austerity. Look at the industrial disputes as a part of his people are feeling and it becomes clear that people don't want to be told what's good for them right now. They want a populist who'll tell them whatever they want to hear. They also want to stick it to the establishment, do I'd say we're ripe for a big change.

    The question is whether or not the right candidate can come along to exploit it.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 20,087 ✭✭✭✭El_Duderino 09


    Radiosonde wrote:
    Sinn Fein are part of a power sharing executive in Northern Ireland, Martin McGuinness has been known to rub shoulders with the Queen and travel to the States to try drum up investment. They are part of the political mainstream now. SF in a coalition government here wouldn't be a Trump/Brexit style shock at this stage.

    Getting into government in the republic would signify big shift in voter preference though.

    Renua are getting academics to help them form policy. That should be the right approach but in actual fact the populist postscripted policies are beating prescribed policy at the moment


  • Registered Users Posts: 565 ✭✭✭Taco Chips


    There is an opening for a party from the Right in Ireland IMO, people aren't happy that we're letting in people who haven't been properly vetted and will be spending a fortune looking after them for years to come.

    SF and the Independents are also in favour of this free for all that won't end well for us I fear.

    Europe asked us to take in a few hundred, we're a small country just out of recession and it was a reasonable request that nobody had and issue with but it's gone out of control at this stage.

    If the Liberals keep up this madness then what they fear most will happen, Right wing ideals will gain support here.


    It was called Renua and it fell flat onto its face out of the starting gate in the last General Election. There is no appetite to shift to the right in Ireland. People are very relaxed in general and do not want any of the nonsense social policies that comes with the Right. If anything there was a Leftward move in the last election. Irish society is extremely centrist, probably the most so in Europe.


  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 15,665 Mod ✭✭✭✭dfx-


    There could be a nuclear winter worldwide and Ireland would elect either Fianna Fail or Fine Gael the next day, whoever was in opposition on the previous day.

    The ruling party the previous day will be blamed for it and the small coalition party will be decimated. So goes every Irish election.


  • Registered Users Posts: 20,087 ✭✭✭✭El_Duderino 09


    Taco Chips wrote:
    It was called Renua and it fell flat onto its face out of the starting gate in the last General Election. There is no appetite to shift to the right in Ireland. People are very relaxed in general and do not want any of the nonsense social policies that comes with the Right. If anything there was a Leftward move in the last election. Irish society is extremely centrist, probably the most so in Europe.

    It's true that renua fell flat but thats not to say it's dead.

    People shifted to the left in the last 2 elections but do you think they're happier? They might continue to vote left but I wouldn't bet on it. Americans voted for Obama twice before voting for trump.

    Happy people = stability
    Unhappy people = change

    I think people have been pretty unhappy for nearly a decade. I still think it depends on whether the right figure comes along to martial the unhappy voters


  • Registered Users Posts: 565 ✭✭✭Taco Chips


    It's true that renua fell flat but thats not to say it's dead.

    People shifted to the left in the last 2 elections but do you think they're happier? They might continue to vote left but I wouldn't bet on it. Americans voted for Obama twice before voting for trump.

    Happy people = stability
    Unhappy people = change

    I think people have been pretty unhappy for nearly a decade. I still think it depends on whether the right figure comes along to martial the unhappy voters

    In politics people are always unhappy. There's always a problem, there's always a scandal, there's always something that could be done better. By and large people vote in the GE according to whats in their wallets at the end of the year. Even when the boom was getting boomier people were unhappy because the health service was in a heap, because corruption was rife etc... The real bottom line is that we just have to always aspire to do better than how we are at the moment instead of believing wild unrealistic promises made by opposition politicians.


  • Registered Users Posts: 20,087 ✭✭✭✭El_Duderino 09


    Taco Chips wrote:
    In politics people are always unhappy. There's always a problem, there's always a scandal, there's always something that could be done better. By and large people vote in the GE according to whats in their wallets at the end of the year. Even when the boom was getting boomier people were unhappy because the health service was in a heap, because corruption was rife etc... The real bottom line is that we just have to always aspire to do better than how we are at the moment instead of believing wild unrealistic promises made by opposition politicians.

    I think unhappiness from health services and day to day scandals are different from the kind of unhappiness from economic problems like stagnant wages unstable jobs etc.

    All the tribunals and scandals Bertie was involved in couldn't stop him being reelected. The economy turning is different and led to the collapse of FF vote.

    The people swung left and I think they're ripe to follow someone different.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,435 ✭✭✭pumpkin4life


    Characteristics of Irish people compared to English people (who pretty much won Brexit) and Americans:

    Irish people are far more collectivist than the English and the Americans. This is not a bad thing; having its own advantages and disadvantages. What it means though is that Irish people are generally drawn towards big bureaucratic systems which dictate and tell people what to do. The British, The Catholic Church, The E.U etc. Again, more collectivist and less individualistic. Irish people tend to be more risk averse as well. This works in further shutting/attacking people who are further on the individualist spectrum.

    These things combined mean that we will stay with pro mainstream parties like FF FG /pro E.U longer than say the English would.

    Second, while there are pockets of the poorer areas of Dublin experiencing multiculturalism issues right now, it's not that bad yet. We have yet to have a Rotherham, a Cologne, or a Islam lad going nuts, for probability and number reasons.

    Third, while the elites who run this country are becoming increasingly estranged and isolated from the rest of the country, the extremes as seen maybe in London compared to say Luton, are not here. Yet.

    Fourth, the right in this country have the charisma of a dead fish. They should try and emulate Trump in terms of self promotion, marketing etc.

    So as of now, there won't be one.

    However: multiculturalism is becoming an increasing problem both in terms of numbers and minor incidents; the left whether it is in control of newspapers, the arts (Waking the Feminists) or co-corporations are becoming increasingly SJWie and a big problem (people becoming just sick of whats going on and not being forced to be quiet anymore) and just flat out crazy; the elites who run the country are becoming increasingly isolated and sheltered from everyone else.

    Finally, the Irish banks are still over-leveraged and pretty fecking unstable, so if Italy makes a run for it later on this year, alongside the housing issue right now, you could have another big economic challenge in the next while.

    I'd give it a few years, depends on a Cologne or something like that happening to us, possibly even sooner. We'll join the rest of Europe eventually though.


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,403 ✭✭✭✭Galwayguy35


    Taco Chips wrote: »
    It was called Renua and it fell flat onto its face out of the starting gate in the last General Election. There is no appetite to shift to the right in Ireland. People are very relaxed in general and do not want any of the nonsense social policies that comes with the Right. If anything there was a Leftward move in the last election. Irish society is extremely centrist, probably the most so in Europe.

    Go away with Renua, those jokers are dead and buried and I wouldn't class them as right wing with a reject from FG as leader.

    Give it a few years when problems start to arise about letting people in here with no proof of who the really are and we'll see how the people react.

    We need someone like Farage.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,533 ✭✭✭AnGaelach


    Taco Chips wrote:
    It was called Renua and it fell flat onto its face out of the starting gate in the last General Election.

    Renua was an absolute farce of a party. Not only did Eddie and Lucinda not know whether Hobbs was even standing (having given conflicting reports), they didn't even know their own manifesto when they were trying to promote it. Renua were about as useful as tits on a bull.

    If the PDs were to relaunch under McDowell I think they would do quite well.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 32 anonymous00000


    I've noticed an increasing interest for Sinn Féin among the younger generation (around 20s) in recent years. So we could see them in power yet

    Also I think Trump is going to be impeached and Brexit will be thrown out by the Parliament.


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  • Posts: 11,614 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Nice and Lisbon no votes happened, we were told to kindly vote again.

    Thats because the sitting government was pro Europe. Now imagine this scenario:

    Sinn Fein get a majority. Gerry or Mary Lou is Taoiseach.
    Then a referendum on EU membership is called, a Yes vote wins. No "try again" election, because the government want a yes vote.
    ???
    Profit Disaster


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,316 ✭✭✭topmanamillion


    I've noticed an increasing interest for Sinn Féin among the younger generation (around 20s) in recent years. So we could see them in power yet

    Also I think Trump is going to be impeached and Brexit will be thrown out by the Parliament.

    Brexit will most certainly happen. Its already passed through parliament.
    As for Trump impeachment, he`ll do 4 years minimum and quite possibly will do 8.

    As for Sinn Féin I wouldn't mind seeing what they would do.

    FF look to be on the rise again and if they return to power this country truly deserves everything it gets. They are a sceptic party of crooks.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 1,203 ✭✭✭Jack the Stripper


    Interesting times shopping in ikea next few weeks.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 16,768 ✭✭✭✭tomwaterford


    I've noticed an increasing interest for Sinn Féin among the younger generation (around 20s) in recent years. So we could see them in power yet

    Also I think Trump is going to be impeached and Brexit will be thrown out by the Parliament.

    Sinn Fein in last election polled circa 48% in male under 30 iirc
    But if they continue as they are will either force a ff/fg merger/coalition/support government or one of the two of them will blink and accept SF proposals for government


    I think Whatll happen with trump is he'll throw his advisors under the bus to save himself for poor/unpopular political descisions

    and expect to see alot of blaggarding regarding using legal process to stop/slow/weaken ecutive orders.....and there's enough within his own party wary of him to give him too much of a free reign
    It'll be a frustrating autemn/winter for 2017 for him I'd predict....though the twitter thing will be fun reading!



    As for brexit....That's 100% sure to happen....as rightly or wrongly people voted for it and there decision has to be listened to (afaik support for it has strengthened)

    But perhaps another referendum to confirm 100% when negotiations are completed so people will know what they are voting for?


  • Registered Users Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    Healy Rae as our Dear Leader.


    Tralee becomes new Capital.

    Hunger Games follows shortly afterwards, but with GAA rules.

    Total nightmare; gave me palpitations just reading it.. I just escaped from HR kingdom!


  • Registered Users Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    This... think of North Korea, but with the Healys Rae as our leaders!!!

    Ouch!


  • Registered Users Posts: 21,886 ✭✭✭✭Roger_007


    The equivalent of a Trump type person getting elected in Ireland would be someone like Denis O'Brien or Michael O'Leary becoming Taoiseach!
    That won't happen because of the ingrained begrudgery of Irish people towards anyone who is very wealthy. In USA nobody cares how wealthy anyone is. That's why a Trump-type person can get elected there!


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,703 ✭✭✭The J Stands for Jay


    We're already led by a clown with a bad haircut.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 696 ✭✭✭Noddyholder


    I think if the voting people here were given a chance they would vote other than FF/FG, Remember the PDs & Greens. Electrec here are still afraid of SF,but I see that changing,

    I don't know about wether we would elect a trump or bretix as most people go with the general mood of the country & follow the flow,How many voters really know what they are voting for ? & are just voting not for the good of the country as whole but more on personality & local issues.


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  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,986 ✭✭✭philstar


    It already did,

    we left sterling and went on our own with the punt and we voted in Haughey on several occasions


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