Could something or someone like Brexit or Trump happen in Ireland?

steddyeddy

I.E a deep unsatisction leading to a voter led change. What form could it take?

Sam Kade

It already did, Bertie Ahern was his name.

A Little Pony

Well the EU rules Ireland now, so unless that changes, nothing changes.

The_Valeyard

Healy Rae as our Dear Leader.


Tralee becomes new Capital.

Hunger Games follows shortly afterwards, but with GAA rules.

dodderangler

Sam Kade wrote: »

It already did, Bertie Ahern was his name.

Being a gobshiite was his game. Hey that rhymes

CINCLANTFLT

The_Valeyard wrote: »

Healy Ray as our Dear Leader.


Tralee becomes new Capital.

Hunger Games follows shortly afterwards, but with GAA rules.

This... think of North Korea, but with the Healys Rae as our leaders!!!

I think it could, it might be a case of no one really believing it would happen - until it does. I've seen enough opinions on this forum alone not to disregard the possibility.

Ireland is the meat in this brave new world sandwich. You just never know what could happen.

whatawaster81

Shinners in. Gerry or Mary Lou for Taoiseach.

CINCLANTFLT

dodderangler wrote: »

Being a gobshiite was his game. Hey that rhymes

Bertie Ahern was his name.
Being a gobshiite was his game!
He let Cowan take the blame.
But now it's his aim...
To be our president and return to fame!

El_Duderino 09

If you look at the political parties, they're very much the same. FF/FG preference is mostly whichever you were raised with. Like Barry's/Lyon's tea, most people wouldn't be able to do a blind test of ff/FG policy if they didn't know who's in government.

So.e people on boards alone have so e fairly far out idea. A lot of people would like to see harshness shown to certain groups like immigrants, Muslims, the unworking class.

I junk.a lot of people would respond to trump's style of dumbing it right down and Tailoring towards the angry people who do the know much about politics right now.

Atlantic Dawn

Nice and Lisbon no votes happened, we were told to kindly vote again.

Hanwellian

I don't think there is any real appetite for a seismic shift in the political climate in Ireland, when all is said and done most people are happy with the status quo. Sure, they may bleat behind closed doors, but most haven't the gumption to back this up at the polls.

IMO, we should stand up to the EU much more, a case of golden handcuffs with them!

Iwasfrozen

Yes, it could happen. Even on boards there are a lot of nationalists, xenophobes, bigots. Ireland is not immune to people's ignorance and the 1916 celebrations were a little too militaristic in my view.

mzungu

We don't really do extremes in this country so on the Trump side of things I doubt it. As regards a Brexit scenario, perhaps if there was another crash and Joe and Jane taxpayer ended up taking another massive hit then it would not be totally beyond the realms of possibility. But I'm sure we would get a second vote if that ever happened :pac:

Flint Fredstone

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

Yes, it could happen. Even on boards there are a lot of nationalists, xenophobes, bigots. Ireland is not immune to people's ignorance and the 1916 celebrations were a little too militaristic in my view.

You don't have to be any of those if you want certain things to change and you are presented with 2 crappy choices.

Hanwellian

It appears that if there were to be any change, it would be to the left, the rise in Independents and Sinn Fein has continued in the last five years or so, whilst the rest of Europe heads to the right.

_Kaiser_

Hanwellian wrote: »

I don't think there is any real appetite for a seismic shift in the political climate in Ireland, when all is said and done most people are happy with the status quo. Sure, they may bleat behind closed doors, but most haven't the gumption to back this up at the polls.

IMO, we should stand up to the EU much more, a case of golden handcuffs with them!

I agree completely with the latter point. The EU has shown in the last 8/9 years, how out of touch it is with the reality its citizens live in, and how business and political interests mean those same citizens are no more than expendable economic assets if it suits the interests of (primarily) the Germans. Rules that are inflexible and punishing to countries like Greece and even Ireland can be bent, ignored or rewritten at a whim if it suits those who the EU is really setup to benefit.

Add to that the disastrous handling of the "refugee"/migrant crisis and it's no wonder an increasing number of those disenfranchised ordinary citizens want nothing to do with it.. result: Brexit and far left/right parties on the rise.


However, to be fair, back in Ireland our political choices are :

FG - whose only function in Irish politics is to make FF electable again by being even worse.. as they've achieved yet again by the recent poll figures

FF - who'll keep the party going till the house falls apart. But we'll all get "free" money so wahey! :rolleyes:

LAB - who sold their supporters out rapidly to become FG-lite last time out, and include such notable "characters" like Alan Kelly

SF - completely unelectable in reality with Gerry at the helm. They've no idea what most people here care about.. and, let's be honest here, it's not the North

The Alphabet soup protest groups (AAA/PBP etc) - while these have done some invaluable work in exposing the incompetence and corruption of the current/last Government, that's about all they're up to in reality

The "Independents" - one-issue parochial candidates or cast-offs from FF/FG for the most part. Not much to inspire there.

Greens/Renua - are they even still a thing, especially given the former group's role in Government prior to 2011.

In other words, we don't really have a great selection to choose from outside of the Big 2 (who are both incidentally completely beholden to the EU anyway seeing as their TDs benefit handsomely from it after national politics has had enough of them), and between them the cycle repeats endlessly... FF are irresponsible, populist and prone to shady dealings - but everyone puts up with it because "property ladder", "100% mortgage" etc - and then when the crash happens, FG come in and prove to be just as bad if not worse (Irish Water mess, Garda scandals and the same old cronyism and waste that people crticise FF for).

Lackey

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

Yes, it could happen. Even on boards there are a lot of nationalists, xenophobes, bigots. Ireland is not immune to people's ignorance and the 1916 celebrations were a little too militaristic in my view.

That's it..... The only reason they voted, cause they are all racist....how's that opinion working out for you? ...as Dr Phil would ask.

Lots of people thought the 1916 celebrations were brilliant, what box does that place them in?

Bigotry works both ways.

Iwasfrozen

Lackey wrote: »

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

Yes, it could happen. Even on boards there are a lot of nationalists, xenophobes, bigots. Ireland is not immune to people's ignorance and the 1916 celebrations were a little too militaristic in my view.

That's it..... The only reason they voted, cause they are all racist....how's that opinion working out for you? ...as Dr Phil would ask.

Lots of people thought the 1916 celebrations were brilliant, what box does that place them in?

Bigotry works both ways.

Not all people who voted for Trump are racist but there's a fair case to make that all racists voted Trump.

Permabear

This post has been deleted.

Lackey

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

Not all people who voted for Trump are racist but there's a fair case to make that all racists voted Trump.

You can come out with as many of these little witty one liners as you wish about the great 'unwashed uneducated racist bigots',

Meanwhile....I could see it all a mile off....
Trump is The President of the United States,
Brexit happened,
The Right are on the rise all over Europe.

But hey, YOUR opinions are right, THEIR opinions are all wrong, and that's all that matters.

Hanwellian

The time has come when Ireland needs to know what camp it is in. Is it a dedicated member and believer in the EU, does it head towards more closer ties with Britain (post Brexit) or, become more subservient to the U.S. and all that may entail there.

Certainly, it seems more evident that the EU is creaking at the seams, when there are possible political changes in Germany and France on the cards, the EU will either be doomed or have to make radical changes to it's ( democratic/undemocratic as you may view it) policies.

A Little Pony

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

Nice and Lisbon no votes happened, we were told to kindly vote again.

The Irish electorate must be so thick. Imagine voting and then being asked again and just going along with what the EU tells you. Irish people have no thirst for freedom anymore or political revolutionary thinking. Irish people are the greatest whingers on earth but when it comes to making a difference at the ballot box, absolutely nothing happens.

Hanwellian

Part of the problem is that ireland has this inherent need to be 'liked' across the world, it won't do anything to disabuse this.
Why is there a constant national belief that everyone loves the Irish. Maybe because we are so compliant and docile?

Alf Stewart.

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

Yes, it could happen. Even on boards there are a lot of nationalists, xenophobes, bigots. Ireland is not immune to people's ignorance and the 1916 celebrations were a little too militaristic in my view.

Really?

Militaristic, during a commemoration celebrating the states uprising

You'd have to wonder who in under phuck came up with a "militaristic" theme to celebrate an uprising. Clearly alternatives such as Morris dancers and a synchronised swimming display would have been much better.

steddyeddy

Hanwellian wrote: »

Part of the problem is that ireland has this inherent need to be 'liked' across the world, it won't do anything to disabuse this.
Why is there a constant national belief that everyone loves the Irish. Maybe because we are so compliant and docile?

We celebrated the 1916 Rising not so long ago. Don't think we're particularly docile in fairness.

steddyeddy

Candie wrote: »

I think it could, it might be a case of no one really believing it would happen - until it does. I've seen enough opinions on this forum alone not to disregard the possibility.

Ireland is the meat in this brave new world sandwich. You just never know what could happen.

Very true. No country is immune, it's just a question of what form it will take in Ireland.

Hanwellian

Celebrating the 1916 Uprising means the Irish are not a docile nation?

How would the marking of a event that happened 100 years ago, an internal event at that, show Europe that we are not going to be compliant and make a stand or even throw a small spanner in the cogs?

steddyeddy

Hanwellian wrote: »

Celebrating the 1916 Uprising means the Irish are not a docile nation?

How would the marking of a event that happened 100 years ago, an internal event at that, show Europe that we are not going to be compliant and make a stand or even throw a small spanner in the cogs?

Does the EU generally agree with our tax regime?

Irish Guitarist

If there's a referendum that doesn't turn out how the government want it to they'll just hold another referendum and another until voters make the correct choice.

Hanwellian

Exactly, compliant!

newacc2015

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

I agree completely with the latter point. The EU has shown in the last 8/9 years, how out of touch it is with the reality its citizens live in, and how business and political interests mean those same citizens are no more than expendable economic assets if it suits the interests of (primarily) the Germans. Rules that are inflexible and punishing to countries like Greece and even Ireland can be bent, ignored or rewritten at a whim if it suits those who the EU is really setup to benefit.

Im sorry, but do people completely forget about how Ireland was a complete ****hole until he joined the EU? Most Irish are completely happy with the EU(we are still one of the most supportive nations of the EU) as they remember life before it. Life in the EU might not be perfect, but it is better than living in a country where the economy was in a near constant state of recession for several decades and where income was a fraction of the EU average.

The EU forced us to do things we didn't like such as giving women equal rights when it come to employment or by not criminally prosecuting the gays(1993 which is nice to know we were ahead of giving them rights before Texas in 2003, but they were forced to do it too so its not too great on that front either).

The Euro was a disaster in Ireland, as we didn't have a proper central bank regulating the financial services industry. We now do and we are preventing another banking crisis. We are the only ones to blame for the banking crisis as we didn't regulate our banks.

The EU is not perfect. But for a small nation, the benefits far outweigh the negatives. We have access to the largest market in the World (lets see how it goes for the UK). We have about 10% of the nation working directly for American firms who are only here as we have access to the EU.

But hey lets focus on the migrant crisis that doesn't affect us and the EU stopping us going into never ending boom and bust cycles by monitoring our spending. Sure our stellar economy and human rights record before 1973 shows we don't need the EU! :rolleyes:

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

In other words, we don't really have a great selection to choose from outside of the Big 2 (who are both incidentally completely beholden to the EU anyway seeing as their TDs benefit handsomely from it after national politics has had enough of them), and between them the cycle repeats endlessly... FF are irresponsible, populist and prone to shady dealings - but everyone puts up with it because "property ladder", "100% mortgage" etc - and then when the crash happens, FG come in and prove to be just as bad if not worse (Irish Water mess, Garda scandals and the same old cronyism and waste that people crticise FF for).

What exactly has FG done wrong? I can't quite wrap my head around how you think they are on par with FF. FG didn't bankrupt the nation or blow all the cash during one of the largest economic booms in economic history. FF signed the nation up to IW, which FG were forced to follow through on(but hey who cares about the facts right?) Your point is literally FG are like FF, so therefore they are bad. One bankrupted the nation and one cleaned up the mess. But the one who cleaned up the mess is worse than the one who bankrupted the nation due to the odd scandal? :rolleyes:

Trump got elected as dumb people don't realise when they have it good. Support among Trump has ridiculously high in states where unemployment was 2/3%. Britain has one of the strongest economies in Europe(probably the strongest) yet wanted to leave the EU as it was dragging them down? Ireland has one of the fastest growing economies in Europe and relatively low unemployment for an EU state. Yet you swear we had an economy on par with Zimbabwe.

macnug

I think if it was going to happen it would have been in the last general election after the big recession. What is going to be interesting is how we deal with the impact brexit is going to have on the north and Scotland. Imagine if in 20 years time (maybe sooner) Ireland is reunited and Scotland quits the Uk?

AnGaelach

I think Michael O'Leary would have a very good chance of actually becoming President if he wanted to run. He knows how to get media attention, he has the money, he appeals to those in FG (and I would think, if FF's candidate gets knocked out, FF voters), and does enough plain talking to cut through the bolloxology of politicians. He doesn't have the same baggage as Denis O'Brien (as far as I know he hasn't been getting up to much corrupt stuff, and he pays all his taxes in Ireland) and is generally more likeable.

Will it happen? I don't think so.

I do think Bertie also has a good chance of becoming President if he was to run after Michael D.

Galwayguy35

There is an opening for a party from the Right in Ireland IMO, people aren't happy that we're letting in people who haven't been properly vetted and will be spending a fortune looking after them for years to come.

SF and the Independents are also in favour of this free for all that won't end well for us I fear.

Europe asked us to take in a few hundred, we're a small country just out of recession and it was a reasonable request that nobody had and issue with but it's gone out of control at this stage.

If the Liberals keep up this madness then what they fear most will happen, Right wing ideals will gain support here.

LordSutch

whatawaster81 wrote: »

Shinners in. Gerry or Mary Lou for Taoiseach.

I guess that would be the ultimate nightmare on a local basis, but unless the whole country lurches to the left and becomes Provo apologists, then it can't happen. Thank God.

Iwasfrozen

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

Yes, it could happen. Even on boards there are a lot of nationalists, xenophobes, bigots. Ireland is not immune to people's ignorance and the 1916 celebrations were a little too militaristic in my view.

Which reminds me that Boards always has its cultural cringe Hibernophobes; people whose sole real problem with the above is when they are Irish. British variants of same are entirely acceptable, and defended here by them ad nauseum.

ChikiChiki

I wouldn't call us docile to be honest. History has shown that we will rise up when needed. I would however say that we are fruatratingly apathetic when it comes to political matters. Most simply couldn't give a ****e as long as they've money in their pocket for pints and to watch the footie at the end of the week.

Radiosonde

Sinn Fein are part of a power sharing executive in Northern Ireland, Martin McGuinness has been known to rub shoulders with the Queen and travel to the States to try drum up investment. They are part of the political mainstream now. SF in a coalition government here wouldn't be a Trump/Brexit style shock at this stage.

Radiosonde

There is also a common feature of the Trump/Brexit thing that doesn't apply here: both the UK and US are global powers, and both likely in different stages of decline. There's an arrogance there that comes from being a leading light in the world, that you can cast off the shackles of the EU and fare better alone, or force Mexico to build you a 2,000 mile wall. Both are probably to some extent responses to a sense that their power is threatened or gradually dwindling.

In Ireland, we're unlikely to develop such an inflated sense of our own capacities that we would sever ties with Europe. If we do produce our own Trump, it would likely be a maverick from inside an established party (*cough* Fianna Fail *cough cough*) rather than someone from a fringe radical party. SF are probably lukewarm about the EU, but wouldn't share the anti-immigrant sentiments of Farage or Trump, or indeed the enthusiasm for all these wheeler dealer/Del Boy Trotter international trade deals they claim their countries should be doing. Indeed, the only serious suggestion I've seen so far from an Irish public figure that we ought to consider Irexit is from Ireland's former ambassador to Canada, and predictably enough it hinges on misguided concerns about our relationship with the UK being more important than our relationship with the rest of the EU.

El_Duderino 09

macnug wrote:

I think if it was going to happen it would have been in the last general election after the big recession.

Well people did vote in a very unusual way after the recession. The fall of ff and rise of independents.

Now people are sick of the guts of a decade of austerity. Look at the industrial disputes as a part of his people are feeling and it becomes clear that people don't want to be told what's good for them right now. They want a populist who'll tell them whatever they want to hear. They also want to stick it to the establishment, do I'd say we're ripe for a big change.

The question is whether or not the right candidate can come along to exploit it.

El_Duderino 09

Radiosonde wrote:

Sinn Fein are part of a power sharing executive in Northern Ireland, Martin McGuinness has been known to rub shoulders with the Queen and travel to the States to try drum up investment. They are part of the political mainstream now. SF in a coalition government here wouldn't be a Trump/Brexit style shock at this stage.

Getting into government in the republic would signify big shift in voter preference though.

Renua are getting academics to help them form policy. That should be the right approach but in actual fact the populist postscripted policies are beating prescribed policy at the moment

Taco Chips

Galwayguy35 wrote: »

There is an opening for a party from the Right in Ireland IMO, people aren't happy that we're letting in people who haven't been properly vetted and will be spending a fortune looking after them for years to come.

SF and the Independents are also in favour of this free for all that won't end well for us I fear.

Europe asked us to take in a few hundred, we're a small country just out of recession and it was a reasonable request that nobody had and issue with but it's gone out of control at this stage.

If the Liberals keep up this madness then what they fear most will happen, Right wing ideals will gain support here.

It was called Renua and it fell flat onto its face out of the starting gate in the last General Election. There is no appetite to shift to the right in Ireland. People are very relaxed in general and do not want any of the nonsense social policies that comes with the Right. If anything there was a Leftward move in the last election. Irish society is extremely centrist, probably the most so in Europe.

dfx-

There could be a nuclear winter worldwide and Ireland would elect either Fianna Fail or Fine Gael the next day, whoever was in opposition on the previous day.

The ruling party the previous day will be blamed for it and the small coalition party will be decimated. So goes every Irish election.

El_Duderino 09

Taco Chips wrote:

It was called Renua and it fell flat onto its face out of the starting gate in the last General Election. There is no appetite to shift to the right in Ireland. People are very relaxed in general and do not want any of the nonsense social policies that comes with the Right. If anything there was a Leftward move in the last election. Irish society is extremely centrist, probably the most so in Europe.

It's true that renua fell flat but thats not to say it's dead.

People shifted to the left in the last 2 elections but do you think they're happier? They might continue to vote left but I wouldn't bet on it. Americans voted for Obama twice before voting for trump.

Happy people = stability
Unhappy people = change

I think people have been pretty unhappy for nearly a decade. I still think it depends on whether the right figure comes along to martial the unhappy voters

Taco Chips

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

It's true that renua fell flat but thats not to say it's dead.

People shifted to the left in the last 2 elections but do you think they're happier? They might continue to vote left but I wouldn't bet on it. Americans voted for Obama twice before voting for trump.

Happy people = stability
Unhappy people = change

I think people have been pretty unhappy for nearly a decade. I still think it depends on whether the right figure comes along to martial the unhappy voters

In politics people are always unhappy. There's always a problem, there's always a scandal, there's always something that could be done better. By and large people vote in the GE according to whats in their wallets at the end of the year. Even when the boom was getting boomier people were unhappy because the health service was in a heap, because corruption was rife etc... The real bottom line is that we just have to always aspire to do better than how we are at the moment instead of believing wild unrealistic promises made by opposition politicians.

El_Duderino 09

Taco Chips wrote:

In politics people are always unhappy. There's always a problem, there's always a scandal, there's always something that could be done better. By and large people vote in the GE according to whats in their wallets at the end of the year. Even when the boom was getting boomier people were unhappy because the health service was in a heap, because corruption was rife etc... The real bottom line is that we just have to always aspire to do better than how we are at the moment instead of believing wild unrealistic promises made by opposition politicians.

I think unhappiness from health services and day to day scandals are different from the kind of unhappiness from economic problems like stagnant wages unstable jobs etc.

All the tribunals and scandals Bertie was involved in couldn't stop him being reelected. The economy turning is different and led to the collapse of FF vote.

The people swung left and I think they're ripe to follow someone different.

pumpkin4life

Characteristics of Irish people compared to English people (who pretty much won Brexit) and Americans:

Irish people are far more collectivist than the English and the Americans. This is not a bad thing; having its own advantages and disadvantages. What it means though is that Irish people are generally drawn towards big bureaucratic systems which dictate and tell people what to do. The British, The Catholic Church, The E.U etc. Again, more collectivist and less individualistic. Irish people tend to be more risk averse as well. This works in further shutting/attacking people who are further on the individualist spectrum.

These things combined mean that we will stay with pro mainstream parties like FF FG /pro E.U longer than say the English would.

Second, while there are pockets of the poorer areas of Dublin experiencing multiculturalism issues right now, it's not that bad yet. We have yet to have a Rotherham, a Cologne, or a Islam lad going nuts, for probability and number reasons.

Third, while the elites who run this country are becoming increasingly estranged and isolated from the rest of the country, the extremes as seen maybe in London compared to say Luton, are not here. Yet.

Fourth, the right in this country have the charisma of a dead fish. They should try and emulate Trump in terms of self promotion, marketing etc.

So as of now, there won't be one.

However: multiculturalism is becoming an increasing problem both in terms of numbers and minor incidents; the left whether it is in control of newspapers, the arts (Waking the Feminists) or co-corporations are becoming increasingly SJWie and a big problem (people becoming just sick of whats going on and not being forced to be quiet anymore) and just flat out crazy; the elites who run the country are becoming increasingly isolated and sheltered from everyone else.

Finally, the Irish banks are still over-leveraged and pretty fecking unstable, so if Italy makes a run for it later on this year, alongside the housing issue right now, you could have another big economic challenge in the next while.

I'd give it a few years, depends on a Cologne or something like that happening to us, possibly even sooner. We'll join the rest of Europe eventually though.

Galwayguy35

Taco Chips wrote: »

It was called Renua and it fell flat onto its face out of the starting gate in the last General Election. There is no appetite to shift to the right in Ireland. People are very relaxed in general and do not want any of the nonsense social policies that comes with the Right. If anything there was a Leftward move in the last election. Irish society is extremely centrist, probably the most so in Europe.

Go away with Renua, those jokers are dead and buried and I wouldn't class them as right wing with a reject from FG as leader.

Give it a few years when problems start to arise about letting people in here with no proof of who the really are and we'll see how the people react.

We need someone like Farage.

AnGaelach

Taco Chips wrote:

It was called Renua and it fell flat onto its face out of the starting gate in the last General Election.

Renua was an absolute farce of a party. Not only did Eddie and Lucinda not know whether Hobbs was even standing (having given conflicting reports), they didn't even know their own manifesto when they were trying to promote it. Renua were about as useful as tits on a bull.

If the PDs were to relaunch under McDowell I think they would do quite well.

anonymous00000

I've noticed an increasing interest for Sinn Féin among the younger generation (around 20s) in recent years. So we could see them in power yet

Also I think Trump is going to be impeached and Brexit will be thrown out by the Parliament.