January 2017 Boards forecast contest

M.T. Cranium · 29-12-2016 8:40am #1

No big changes in format for the 2017 Boards weather contest.

1. Predict the IMT (Irish Mean Temperature), the average for five locations, Claremorris, Mullingar, Casement, Oak Park and Shannon. The 1981-2010 normal value is 5.4 C. (max 25 points)

2. Predict the MAX (highest temperature at any regular reporting site as confirmed in the Monthly Summary of Met-Eireann) during January. (max 20 points)

3. Predict the MIN (lowest temperature etc, see above) (max 20 points)

4. Predict the PRC (rainfall and liquid equivalent of any frozen precip) as a percentage of normal values. The baseline for this is a grid of eleven stations, the five mentioned in part one above, and also Belmullet, Malin Head, Valentia, Ballyhaise, Johnstown Castle, and Cork. (max 15 points)

5. Predict the SUN (sunshine) as a percentage of normal values at six locations (Casement, Dublin, Belmullet, Cork, Shannon, Valentia). (max 10 points)

6. For a BONUS question, predict the maximum temperature at Mullingar on Sunday, 8th of January. (max 10 points).

Deadline will be as usual at 0300h on Sunday, 1st of January, but given the combined New Years and weekend factors in play, I will relax the late penalties as follows: you will lose one point if you post between 0305h and 0900h. You will lose two points for a post 0901-1500h. From there on, the late penalties will be one point every three hours to midnight (end of 1st) so at that point 5 points will be deducted; then it will be one more point for each two hours elapsed to end of second and one more point per hour after that.

That's a bit more lenient than usual.

Hoping to get a few new forum members to join in the fun, if you know people who don't enter the contest but are weather forum regulars, pitch the contest to them in a private message.

Here's how the minimum progression rule will be slightly modified for use in the coming year. If no forecasts qualify for the existing minimum progression, then it will be applied as per rules already set out. If the high score does not need minimum progression to equal or exceed maximum minus 2, then whatever portion of the scores needing a boost can only get an increase of half the differential (raw score to min progression) -- that would reward the one person who foresaw an extreme situation while still keeping the scores tolerable. Here's an example, let's say the MIN in a cold month is -11.0 and there is one guess of -10.8, then -9.5, -8.0 and -7.0. The low guess would get 18 points. Minimum progression says we should then go 17, 16, 15, 14 etc (doubling up near the bottom as required by number of entries). In this case, second coldest has five points raw score. The boost to 17 would be 12 points but with the one "good" forecast this would be reduced to 6, for 11 points. Then for third and fourth, the raw scores are zero. The minimum progression scores would be 16 and 15, so these get 8 points each. Etc etc, the doubling up will begin a bit earlier as a result (everyone will still get some points in these situations).

If the best forecast had been -10.0, we would go 18, 17, 16 etc.

============================================

GOOD LUCK and best wishes for a happy new year to all. -- MTC

sryanbruen · 29-12-2016 5:58pm

sryanbruen __________ 4.4 _ 14.0_ -8.0 _ 70_ 120_ 4.2c

Still living the dream for a cold month!

Bsal · 30-12-2016 12:45am

Bsal __________ 4.1 _ 13.0_ -7.0 _ 85_ 101_ 7.0c

sunflower3 · 31-12-2016 12:01am

Sunflower 3_______5.0____15.0_____-6.5____88_____95____9.5

dasa29 · 31-12-2016 3:28am

dasa29_______4.8____12.0_____-5.5____95_____110____4.5

pauldry · 31-12-2016 12:54pm

pauldry_______5.7____13.9_____-5.9____84_____107____9.7

John mac · 31-12-2016 4:49pm

John Mac __________ 5.1 _ 14.0_ -6.0 _ 88_ 110_ 6.2

DOCARCH · 31-12-2016 6:29pm

DOCARCH ____________ 4.9 ___ 13.2 ___ -7.3 ___ 90 ___ 105 ___ 3.7

Lumi · 31-12-2016 7:48pm

Lumi ____________ 5.4 ___ 13.8 ___ -6.5 ___ 88 ___ 92 ___ 8.5

Jpmarn · 31-12-2016 7:51pm

Jpmarn_______6.7____14.3____-5.5____75_____125___8.5

M.T. Cranium · 31-12-2016 10:36pm

M.T. Cranium ______ 5.9 __ 14.5 __ --7.5 __ 050 __ 150 ___ 7.7

Tae laidir · 01-01-2017 12:46am

Tae laidir ______ 6.1 __ 13.8 __ --5.1 __ 100 __ 107 ___ 10.0

Should have done this earlier!
Happy New Year to all.

waterways · 01-01-2017 12:52am

waterways ______ 5.8 __ 13.9__ -9.5 __ 120 __ 103 ___ 9.8
Happy New Year and thank you.

Rikand · 01-01-2017 1:07am

Rikand _____ 6.0 ___15.0 ___ -7.0 ____ 90 ____ 110 ____ 10.5

mrskinner · 01-01-2017 2:51am

Skinner_______5.2______14.5°_____-5.6°______90_______90______4.8°

Happy New Year to all.

kindredspirit · 01-01-2017 3:37am

Kindred Spirit ___ 5.0 ___ 14.0 ___ -6° ___ 105 ___ 105 ___ 8.0

mickger844posts · 01-01-2017 11:37am

mickger844posts __________ 5.4 _ 12.0_ -6.0 _ 80_120_ 9.2c

dacogawa · 01-01-2017 4:04pm

Dacogawa_______5.2______14.8 _____-7.2 ______82_______110______8.9

rameire · 01-01-2017 6:55pm

Rameire _____ 5.7 ___13.7 ___ -6.8 ____ 85 ____ 105 ____ 6.5

200motels · 01-01-2017 11:42pm

200motels______ 5.5 _ 11.9_ -6.2 _ 83_121_ 8.2c

Joe Public · 02-01-2017 12:36am

Joe Public ______ 3.9 __ 13.9 __ -8.9 __ 75 __ 135 ___ 8.9

M.T. Cranium · 02-01-2017 9:07am

Table of forecasts January 2017

FORECASTER ______ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Mull 8th

Jpmarn ___________ 6.7 _ 14.3 _ --5.5 _ 075 _ 125 ____ 8.5
Tae laidir __________6.1 _ 13.8 _ --5.1 _ 100 _ 107 ___ 10.0
Rikand ____________6.0 _ 15.0 _ --7.0 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 10.5
M.T. Cranium ______ 5.9 _ 14.5 _ --7.5 _ 050 _ 150 ____ 7.7
waterways _________5.8 _ 13.9 _ --9.5 _ 120 _ 103 ____ 9.8
pauldry ___________ 5.7 _ 13.9 _ --5.9 _ 084 _ 107 ____ 9.7
Rameire _ (-3) _____ 5.7 _ 13.7 _ --6.8 _ 085 _ 105 ____ 6.5
200motels__ (-5) ___ 5.5 _ 11.9 _ --6.2 _ 083 _ 121 ____ 8.2

NormaL ___________ 5.4 _ 14.5 _ --7.0 _ 100 _ 100 ____ 8.2

Lumi ______________5.4 _ 13.8 _ --6.5 _ 088 _ 092 ____ 8.5
mickger844posts_(-2)_5.4 _ 12.0 _ --6.0 _ 080 _ 120 ____ 9.2

Con Sensus _________5.3 _ 13.9 _ --6.5 _ 088 _ 110 ____ 8.5

Dacogawa __ (-2) ___ 5.2 _ 14.8 _ --7.2 _ 082 _ 110 ____ 8.9
MrSkinner __________5.2 _ 14.5 _ --5.6 _ 090 _ 090 ____ 4.8
John Mac __________ 5.1 _ 14.0 _ --6.0 _ 088 _ 110 ____ 6.2
Sunflower 3 ________ 5.0 _ 15.0 _ --6.5 _ 088 _ 095 ____ 9.5
Kindred Spirit _______5.0 _ 14.0 _ --6.0 _ 105 _ 105 ____ 8.0
DOCARCH __________4.9 _ 13.2 _ --7.3 _ 090 _ 105 ____ 3.7
dasa29 ____________ 4.8 _ 12.0 _ --5.5 _ 095 _ 110 ____ 4.5
sryanbruen _________ 4.4 _ 14.0 _ --8.0 _ 070 _ 120 ____ 4.2
Bsal _______________4.1 _ 13.0 _ --7.0 _ 085 _ 101 ____ 7.0
Joe Public __ (-5) ____ 3.9 _ 13.9 _ --8.9 _ 075 _ 135 ____ 8.9

____________________________________________________
As of 0800h Monday 2nd, penalties have reached 9 points and will increase by one
point each 2h today.
Con Sensus can be changed by later entries. There are now 20 entries so Con Sensus is average of 10th and 11th ranked forecasts in each category.

Tae laidir · 03-01-2017 10:41am

Gurteen at -4.0 yesterday.

M.T. Cranium · 03-01-2017 4:24pm

Moore Park was showing -5 at 0600h, so that suggests a lower MIN to come.

pauldry · 03-01-2017 9:00pm

Moore park has had quite a few frosty nights this Winter. Is it another ice trap like Markree?

Tae laidir · 04-01-2017 10:34am

pauldry wrote: »

Moore park has had quite a few frosty nights this Winter. Is it another ice trap like Markree?

Looks like it. -5.7 confirmed. Next lowest Oak Park at -3.5.

M.T. Cranium · 04-01-2017 10:02pm

About -8 here the past two mornings. That doesn't count though.

Also three days of unbroken sunshine, something you don't see very often here in January.

Tae laidir · 06-01-2017 9:23pm

Met Eireann forecasting max of 9 to 12 for Sunday.
A nice bonus!

M.T. Cranium · 08-01-2017 7:17pm

After the first week ...

IMT at 5.0 which was 0.3 below average.

PRC was 59% of normal.

SUN was 138% of normal.

MAX so far is 12.5

MIN so far is --5.7

Tae laidir · 09-01-2017 12:35pm

Mullingar Max 10.6 yesterday.

M.T. Cranium · 09-01-2017 5:00pm

Bonus points will be in order of the forecasts from high to low, two sharing each level from 10 down to 1.

Closest were Rikand (10.5) and Tae laidir (10.0) who get the 10 points.

Next we have waterways (9.8) and Pauldry (9.7) who will have nine points.

Eight points go to mickger844posts and sunflower 3,

Seven points shared by Dacogawa and Joe Public.

Six points go to Jpmarn, Lumi and Con Sensus.

Five points for 200motels, Kindred Spirit and NormaL.

Four points -- MTC and Bsal.

Three points -- Rameire and John mac.

Two points -- MrSkinner and dasa29

One point -- Sryanbruen and DOCARCH.

M.T. Cranium · 15-01-2017 7:56pm

After two weeks ...

IMT at 5.5 with the second week 6.1, which was 0.9 above normal.

PRC still running low, 61% after the second week almost matched the first week at 63%.

SUN now at 127% of normal, the second week averaged 115% but was closer to 150% away from the cloudier southwest.

MAX and MIN continue unchanged.

M.T. Cranium · 22-01-2017 8:28pm

Now after three weeks ...

IMT at 5.8(4) with the third week 6.6, 1.4 above average (the last two days were colder so the IMT peaked at 6.0 back on the 19th).

PRC has fallen to a very low 42% after an almost dry week (5% of normal).

SUN is at 124% with this past week 118% (despite the two Dublin area stations only recording 49% each).

MAX and MIN were unmoved by the experience.

This coming week looks somewhat milder again, with near normal rain and perhaps not that much sunshine, so by end of week four we may be looking at 6.0, 55-60 per cent PRC and closer to 110% sunshine? Max could be nudged up a bit too.

Joe Public · 22-01-2017 11:28pm

I clicked "thanks" even though I don't like it

sryanbruen · 23-01-2017 7:56am

Joe Public wrote: »

I clicked "thanks" even though I don't like it

You clicked because you appreciate MT's hard work and so do I.

M.T. Cranium · 24-01-2017 8:12am

I've done some hard work in my time, and this doesn't qualify, in fact it barely makes the criterion of easy work.

M.T. Cranium · 24-01-2017 8:13am

Could be that I will do some hard time for my work though.

sryanbruen · 24-01-2017 8:49am

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Could be that I will do some hard time for my work though.

Hey any work you do on this forum is very appreciable and you do an amazing job.

M.T. Cranium · 26-01-2017 7:45pm

A new MAX of 12.9 was recorded at Shannon on the 24th. It remained intact through the 25th.

M.T. Cranium · 30-01-2017 12:41am

So after four weeks and me almost forgetting to update ...

IMT at 5.9(4) with the fourth week 6.2, which is 1.0 above the normal. Can't see much change but figure on 6.0 since anything much higher than that will round up to at least 5.96.

PRC remains low, 45% for the month and 53% for the past week. This will come up a bit probably finishing in the 50s.

SUN is at 123% after another rather sunny week (119.5% on average). This could leak a few points, not sure if there's much sunshine to be had today or next two days. Normal is only about 1.5 hours a day so it can't drop much.

MAX now 12.9, MIN same as before.

M.T. Cranium · 01-02-2017 7:49pm

Final numbers confirmed:

IMT 6.0 (right on the button)

PRC 54% (only Cork at 83% and Valentia 96% much above that, some locations were under 40%)

and these were just confirmed at 1100h Thursday with MS available on met-ie website:

MAX 12.9

MIN --5.7

SUN 120% (adjusted slightly from 118%, a few scores will change by 1 pt)

So here's a look at now final scoring.

Final scoring for January 2017

FORECASTER ______ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN___ Bonus _____ TOTALS

pauldry ___________ 22 _ 10 _ 18 _ 08*_ 07 ____ 9 _______ 74
mickger844posts(-2)_ 19 _ 11 _ 17 _ 11*_ 10 ____ 8 __ 76-2=74
Jpmarn ___________ 18 _ 06 _ 18 _ 13*_ 09 ____ 6 _______ 70
Tae laidir __________24 _ 11 _ 14 _ 02*_ 07 ___ 10 _______ 68
200motels__ (-5) ___ 20 _ 10 _ 15 _ 09*_ 10 ____ 5 __ 69-5=64

Con Sensus ________ 18 _ 10 _ 12 _ 05*_ 08 ____ 6 _______ 59

John Mac __________16 _ 09 _ 17 _ 05*_ 08 ____ 3 _______ 58
Lumi _____________ 19 _ 11 _ 12 _ 05*_ 04 ____ 6 _______ 57
Rameire _ (-3) _____ 22 _ 12 _ 09 _ 07*_ 07 ____ 3 __ 60-3=57
dasa29 ___________ 13 _ 11 _ 18 _ 03*_ 08 ____ 2 _______ 55
Rikand ____________25 _ 00 _ 07 _ 04*_ 08 ___ 10 _______ 54
Kindred Spirit ______ 15 _ 09 _ 17 _ 01*_ 07 ____ 5 _______ 54
M.T. Cranium ______ 24 _ 04 _ 02 _ 15*_ 04 ____ 4 _______ 53
MrSkinner _________ 17 _ 04 _ 19 _ 04*_ 04 ____ 2 _______ 50
waterways _________23 _ 10 _ 00 _ 00*_ 07 ____ 9 _______ 49
Bsal ______________ 06 _ 19 _ 07 _ 07*_ 06 ____ 4 _______ 49
DOCARCH __________14 _ 17 _ 04 _ 04*_ 07 ____ 1 _______ 47
Dacogawa __ (-2) ___ 17 _ 01 _ 05 _ 10*_ 08 ____ 7 __ 48-2=46
Sunflower 3 ________ 15 _ 00 _ 12 _ 05*_ 05 ____ 8 _______ 45
sryanbruen _________09 _ 09 _ 00 _ 14*_ 10 ____ 1 _______ 43

NormaL ___________ 19 _ 04 _ 07 _ 02*_ 06 ____ 5 _______ 43

Joe Public __ (-5) ____ 04 _ 10 _ 00 _ 13*_ 07 ____ 7 __ 41-5=36
__________________________

* slight adjustments upward on all scores, not enough accuracy on high score to invoke the limited mercy rule (and it would have been just 1-2 pts different for the entire field anyway)

In general, a fairly good month for scoring and not a big range of scores really, would imagine our lower scorers might be dropping this one out eventually, so on that basis, very close. Congrats to Pauldry and mickger844posts who tied for high score at 74, JPmarn in third at 70.

(for later confirmation, forecasts ...)

FORECASTER ______ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Mull 8th

Jpmarn ___________ 6.7 _ 14.3 _ --5.5 _ 075 _ 125 ____ 8.5
Tae laidir __________6.1 _ 13.8 _ --5.1 _ 100 _ 107 ___ 10.0
Rikand ____________6.0 _ 15.0 _ --7.0 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 10.5
M.T. Cranium ______ 5.9 _ 14.5 _ --7.5 _ 050 _ 150 ____ 7.7
waterways _________5.8 _ 13.9 _ --9.5 _ 120 _ 103 ____ 9.8
pauldry ___________ 5.7 _ 13.9 _ --5.9 _ 084 _ 107 ____ 9.7
Rameire _ (-3) _____ 5.7 _ 13.7 _ --6.8 _ 085 _ 105 ____ 6.5
200motels__ (-5) ___ 5.5 _ 11.9 _ --6.2 _ 083 _ 121 ____ 8.2

NormaL ___________ 5.4 _ 14.5 _ --7.0 _ 100 _ 100 ____ 8.2

Lumi ______________5.4 _ 13.8 _ --6.5 _ 088 _ 092 ____ 8.5
mickger844posts_(-2)_5.4 _ 12.0 _ --6.0 _ 080 _ 120 ____ 9.2

Con Sensus _________5.3 _ 13.9 _ --6.5 _ 088 _ 110 ____ 8.5

Dacogawa __ (-2) ___ 5.2 _ 14.8 _ --7.2 _ 082 _ 110 ____ 8.9
MrSkinner __________5.2 _ 14.5 _ --5.6 _ 090 _ 090 ____ 4.8
John Mac __________ 5.1 _ 14.0 _ --6.0 _ 088 _ 110 ____ 6.2
Sunflower 3 ________ 5.0 _ 15.0 _ --6.5 _ 088 _ 095 ____ 9.5
Kindred Spirit _______5.0 _ 14.0 _ --6.0 _ 105 _ 105 ____ 8.0
DOCARCH __________4.9 _ 13.2 _ --7.3 _ 090 _ 105 ____ 3.7
dasa29 ____________ 4.8 _ 12.0 _ --5.5 _ 095 _ 110 ____ 4.5
sryanbruen _________ 4.4 _ 14.0 _ --8.0 _ 070 _ 120 ____ 4.2
Bsal _______________4.1 _ 13.0 _ --7.0 _ 085 _ 101 ____ 7.0
Joe Public __ (-5) ____ 3.9 _ 13.9 _ --8.9 _ 075 _ 135 ____ 8.9

sryanbruen · 01-02-2017 7:53pm

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Final numbers confirmed:

IMT 6.0 (right on the button)

PRC 54% (only Cork at 83% and Valentia 96% much above that, some locations were under 40%)

and these await confirmation:

MAX 12.9

MIN --5.7

SUN 118%

So here's a look at provisional scoring that will be adjusted where necessary after I can check the unconfirmed estimates in the Monthly Summary (tomorrow).

Provisional scoring for January 2017

FORECASTER ______ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN___ Bonus _____ TOTALS

pauldry ___________ 22 _ 10 _ 18 _ 08*_ 08 ____ 9 _______ 75
mickger844posts(-2)_ 19 _ 11 _ 17 _ 11*_ 10 ____ 8 __ 76-2=74
Jpmarn ___________ 18 _ 06 _ 18 _ 13*_ 09 ____ 6 _______ 70
Tae laidir __________24 _ 11 _ 14 _ 02*_ 08 ___ 10 _______ 69
200motels__ (-5) ___ 20 _ 10 _ 15 _ 09*_ 09 ____ 5 __ 68-5=63

Con Sensus ________ 18 _ 10 _ 12 _ 05*_ 08 ____ 6 _______ 59

Lumi _____________ 19 _ 11 _ 12 _ 05*_ 05 ____ 6 _______ 58
John Mac __________16 _ 09 _ 17 _ 05*_ 08 ____ 3 _______ 58
Rameire _ (-3) _____ 22 _ 12 _ 09 _ 07*_ 07 ____ 3 __ 60-3=57
dasa29 ___________ 13 _ 11 _ 18 _ 03*_ 08 ____ 2 _______ 55
Rikand ____________25 _ 00 _ 07 _ 04*_ 08 ___ 10 _______ 54
Kindred Spirit ______ 15 _ 09 _ 17 _ 01*_ 07 ____ 5 _______ 54
M.T. Cranium ______ 24 _ 04 _ 02 _ 15*_ 04 ____ 4 _______ 53
MrSkinner _________ 17 _ 04 _ 19 _ 04*_ 04 ____ 2 _______ 50
waterways _________23 _ 10 _ 00 _ 00*_ 07 ____ 9 _______ 49
Bsal ______________ 06 _ 19 _ 07 _ 07*_ 06 ____ 4 _______ 49
DOCARCH __________14 _ 17 _ 04 _ 04*_ 07 ____ 1 _______ 47
Dacogawa __ (-2) ___ 17 _ 01 _ 05 _ 10*_ 08 ____ 7 __ 48-2=46
Sunflower 3 ________ 15 _ 00 _ 12 _ 05*_ 05 ____ 8 _______ 45
sryanbruen _________09 _ 09 _ 00 _ 14*_ 10 ____ 1 _______ 43

NormaL ___________ 19 _ 04 _ 07 _ 02*_ 06 ____ 5 _______ 43

Joe Public __ (-5) ____ 04 _ 10 _ 00 _ 13*_ 07 ____ 7 __ 41-5=36
__________________________

* slight adjustments upward on all scores, not enough accuracy on high score to invoke the limited mercy rule (and it would have been just 1-2 pts different for the entire field anyway)

In general, a fairly good month for scoring and not a big range of scores really, would imagine our lower scorers might be dropping this one out eventually, so on that basis, very close. Watch for the updated table to appear tomorrow. I hope the changes will be very minor. Congrats to Pauldry and mickger844posts at the moment.

(for later confirmation, forecasts ...)

FORECASTER ______ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Mull 8th

Jpmarn ___________ 6.7 _ 14.3 _ --5.5 _ 075 _ 125 ____ 8.5
Tae laidir __________6.1 _ 13.8 _ --5.1 _ 100 _ 107 ___ 10.0
Rikand ____________6.0 _ 15.0 _ --7.0 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 10.5
M.T. Cranium ______ 5.9 _ 14.5 _ --7.5 _ 050 _ 150 ____ 7.7
waterways _________5.8 _ 13.9 _ --9.5 _ 120 _ 103 ____ 9.8
pauldry ___________ 5.7 _ 13.9 _ --5.9 _ 084 _ 107 ____ 9.7
Rameire _ (-3) _____ 5.7 _ 13.7 _ --6.8 _ 085 _ 105 ____ 6.5
200motels__ (-5) ___ 5.5 _ 11.9 _ --6.2 _ 083 _ 121 ____ 8.2

NormaL ___________ 5.4 _ 14.5 _ --7.0 _ 100 _ 100 ____ 8.2

Lumi ______________5.4 _ 13.8 _ --6.5 _ 088 _ 092 ____ 8.5
mickger844posts_(-2)_5.4 _ 12.0 _ --6.0 _ 080 _ 120 ____ 9.2

Con Sensus _________5.3 _ 13.9 _ --6.5 _ 088 _ 110 ____ 8.5

Dacogawa __ (-2) ___ 5.2 _ 14.8 _ --7.2 _ 082 _ 110 ____ 8.9
MrSkinner __________5.2 _ 14.5 _ --5.6 _ 090 _ 090 ____ 4.8
John Mac __________ 5.1 _ 14.0 _ --6.0 _ 088 _ 110 ____ 6.2
Sunflower 3 ________ 5.0 _ 15.0 _ --6.5 _ 088 _ 095 ____ 9.5
Kindred Spirit _______5.0 _ 14.0 _ --6.0 _ 105 _ 105 ____ 8.0
DOCARCH __________4.9 _ 13.2 _ --7.3 _ 090 _ 105 ____ 3.7
dasa29 ____________ 4.8 _ 12.0 _ --5.5 _ 095 _ 110 ____ 4.5
sryanbruen _________ 4.4 _ 14.0 _ --8.0 _ 070 _ 120 ____ 4.2
Bsal _______________4.1 _ 13.0 _ --7.0 _ 085 _ 101 ____ 7.0
Joe Public __ (-5) ____ 3.9 _ 13.9 _ --8.9 _ 075 _ 135 ____ 8.9

Of course, how coincidental is that, two Januaries straight I have forecasted very poorly :P, though I'm still much better than I did in 2016 so I'm proud of myself for that :P:P.

Rikand · 02-02-2017 1:06am

I thought I'd do better after nailing the imt and the bonus. Ah well

M.T. Cranium · 02-02-2017 12:30pm

Rikand wrote: »

I thought I'd do better after nailing the imt and the bonus. Ah well

We had the same basic problem, a reasonable MAX for a mild January but the month never drew in that sort of air mass.

So in general folks, I have finalized the scoring table above, the only very minor change was that sunshine calculated out at 120% rather than my estimate of 118% and this changed a few scores by one point up or down, not very many (most people go with multiples of 5 and those wouldn't change in this case). And I carefully checked the scoring on MAX and MIN, and added them all up one more time.

February table is posted, onwards and upwards.

Tae laidir · 02-02-2017 1:19pm

It was not a NormaL month!

January 2017 Boards forecast contest

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