Brexit: The Last Stand (No name calling)

Bit cynical · 21-11-2016 07:48PM

steddyeddy wrote: »

It would be completely unfair to allow Britain free trade with immigration limits on EU citizens. Contrary to Boris' ramblings, free movement of people is one of the cornerstones of the EU. Being realistic about free movement of trade and people isn't equivalent to wanting a tough deal for Britain.

A hard border wouldn't work anyway. It would go against the GFA. Unionists, republicans and the rest are united in not wanting a hard border. Many people north and south of the border wouldn't accept that.

There's three aspects to this as I see it and to reiterate some of the points that have been made:

1. It is not in Ireland's interests to have a hard border. As you point out, it would go against the GFA. People, both north and south of the border don't want one.

2. The problems associated with a hard border are mitigated to the extent to which the UK gets a good trade deal with the EU. This is because the better the trade deal, the less EU goods would otherwise be routed through border in Ireland in either direction therefore less need for a hard border.

3. Therefore, Ireland's interest lies in assisting the UK get a good trade deal. Politically (as well as economically if the ESRI is to be believed), we are going to suffer more than the UK if there's a hard border.

Free trade deals do exist between the EU and other countries and this is really all that is necessary from Ireland's point of view. However a hard line taken by the EU can prevent this.

We have people on this forum who wish for this and I think the important thing is that the government in Ireland recognise this for the rubbish that it is.

It is reasonable that the UK gets a good trade deal and it is worth Ireland pushing for this. What is not reasonable is to expect a reversal of the democratic vote that was recently held in the UK. That is not going to happen.

A Little Pony · 21-11-2016 08:04PM

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

A Little Pony wrote: »

Great news for us brexit voters.

Unionist Brexit voters are so twisted by their pseudo-British Nationalism they may well have helped score the greatest own-goal in their history.

If I was a dissident Republican I'd be delighted with Brexit. You may well have pushed forward the day you dread by many many years.

If austerity bites hard in the northeast of Ireland watch the idea of a United Ireland come alive in the public consciousness.

If my aunt had balls...

A United Ireland ain't happening, for many different reasons. Dissident Republicans is just another term for actual real Republicans who don't believe in serving the British state like Sinn Fein do and who earn a lot of money out of doing it. I don't blame Sinn Fein for going against the 'dissidents'. Money talks and they have to keep the gravy train going.

Junkyard Tom · 21-11-2016 08:13PM

A Little Pony wrote: »

A United Ireland ain't happening, for many different reasons.

Time will tell. Most of the people in the northeast have no emotional attachment to Britain and will vote in their economic interests. You better hope the English keep those transfers flowing into your failed statelet.

FrancieBrady · 21-11-2016 08:14PM

A Little Pony wrote: »

If my aunt had balls...

A United Ireland ain't happening, for many different reasons. Dissident Republicans is just another term for actual real Republicans who don't believe in serving the British state like Sinn Fein do and who earn a lot of money out of doing it. I don't blame Sinn Fein for going against the 'dissidents'. Money talks and they have to keep the gravy train going.

You admit it's a 'gravy train' but keep the head in the sand about what that train derailing is gonna mean. Straight out off Arlene's, 'Politics For Reactionary Dummies' handbook.

Junkyard Tom · 21-11-2016 08:18PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

You admit it's a 'gravy train' but keep the head in the sand about what that train derailing is gonna mean. Straight out off Arlene's, 'Politics For Reactionary Dummies' handbook.

Also the north becomes a double problem for the English, it's a sinkhole for thier money and it looks set to be an impossible-to-secure border with the EU.

Capt'n Midnight · 21-11-2016 08:18PM

A hard Brexit is not in Ireland's interest.

But neither is other countries leaving the EU which is possible depending on how much the UK gets away with.

Anyone who expects the UK to help us back if we fight for better terms for them is dreaming.

Our best result would be the UK realising just how big a mistake Brexit was and accepting the status quo.

It would be nice if they actually said what Brexit was , because most people are going to be disappointed that it goes too far/not far enough . The UK is being sold a pig in a poke

steddyeddy · 21-11-2016 08:28PM

A Little Pony wrote: »

If my aunt had balls...

A United Ireland ain't happening, for many different reasons. Dissident Republicans is just another term for actual real Republicans who don't believe in serving the British state like Sinn Fein do and who earn a lot of money out of doing it. I don't blame Sinn Fein for going against the 'dissidents'. Money talks and they have to keep the gravy train going.

Northern Ireland isn't serving the British state full stop. It's a heavily subsidised tribal statelet which is shielded from reality. Brexit and time will change that.

A Little Pony · 21-11-2016 08:40PM

steddyeddy wrote: »

A Little Pony wrote: »

If my aunt had balls...

A United Ireland ain't happening, for many different reasons. Dissident Republicans is just another term for actual real Republicans who don't believe in serving the British state like Sinn Fein do and who earn a lot of money out of doing it. I don't blame Sinn Fein for going against the 'dissidents'. Money talks and they have to keep the gravy train going.

Northern Ireland isn't serving the British state full stop. It's a heavily subsidised tribal statelet which is shielded from reality. Brexit and time will change that.

Northern Ireland is part of the Union and is a British state. Even Irish Republicans acknowledge the fact it is a separate entity from the Irish Republic.

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

A Little Pony wrote: »

A United Ireland ain't happening, for many different reasons.

Time will tell. Most of the people in the northeast have no emotional attachment to Britain and will vote in their economic interests. You better hope the English keep those transfers flowing into your failed statelet.

You must have missed the last 400 years of history in Ulster to come to that conclusion.

Bit cynical · 21-11-2016 08:45PM

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

A hard Brexit is not in Ireland's interest.

But neither is other countries leaving the EU which is possible depending on how much the UK gets away with.

Anyone who expects the UK to help us back if we fight for better terms for them is dreaming.

I doubt very much that our government is worried about the prospect of other countries leaving at this stage. Much more likely they are worried about the economic impact of a hard brexit which is the likely outcome of failed talks between the UK and EU. Behind the scenes they will be working to the best of their ability to secure a good deal. This will not be in the expectation of being helped back at some future date but because it minimises the immediate economic and political impact of brexit on Ireland.

Our best result would be the UK realising just how big a mistake Brexit was and accepting the status quo.

I can't see the advantage to Ireland of passing judgement, good or bad, on something that is going to happen anyway. The impact of brexit could be very negative for us or it could be comparatively mild. It is most likely to be negative for us if talks fail or a hard line is taken towards the UK.

It would be nice if they actually said what Brexit was , because most people are going to be disappointed that it goes too far/not far enough . The UK is being sold a pig in a poke

I don't see how anyone can say exactly how brexit will turn out at this stage. Basic Brexit is simply leaving the EU - this could range from retaining membership of the EEA all the way to no trade deal whatsoever. It depends on the outcome of negotiations. We need to remember that we in Ireland have a say in this too as we are the country that will be most effected by the outcome.

130Kph · 21-11-2016 09:03PM

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

...bla bla gibberish.....You may well have pushed forward the day you dread by many many years ...gibberish bla bla.....

And then what comrade Junkyard? Let’s humour this.

I would certainly nominate you to hold two ad-hoc ministerial roles after a rapid UI caused by Brexit (just the latest in a long line of fantasy UI scenarios fetished over by nerdish, obsessed, arch parochial ‘republican’ ‘geniuses’).

They would be:-

• Reich-minister for community cohesion and
• Reich-minister for ignoring pseudo-british nationalists - we can think of a more euphemistic title for this ministry later

I couldn’t think of a better candidate for these uplifting, life affirming roles. It would be so positive. The brotherhood of man would be reignited with endless positivism and Eire-32 would be global HQ central of spiritual positivism for all mankind.

Parochial ‘republicans’ can teach the world so much (all LOL’s muffled or deleted by decree).

It will put the enlightenment to shame so gracious it will be.

steddyeddy · 21-11-2016 09:10PM

A Little Pony wrote: »

Northern Ireland is part of the Union and is a British state. Even Irish Republicans acknowledge the fact it is a separate entity from the Irish Republic.

You must have missed the last 400 years of history in Ulster to come to that conclusion.

It is but an unwanted part.

FrancieBrady · 21-11-2016 09:11PM

A Little Pony wrote: »

You must have missed the last 400 years of history in Ulster to come to that conclusion.

You turned on the British when you didn't get your sectarian way. So much so that they now spend more time and money (according to unionism/oyalism) appeasing nationalists.

21-11-2016 09:14PM

steddyeddy wrote: »

It is but an unwanted part.

Yes, It's a financial sink that'll get its plug pulled if it refuses to go along with the Brexit.

Dyr · 21-11-2016 09:38PM

A Little Pony wrote: »

Northern Ireland is part of the Union and is a British state. Even Irish Republicans acknowledge the fact it is a separate entity from the Irish Republic.

You must have missed the last 400 years of history in Ulster to come to that conclusion.

400 hundred years of history in ulster? O h Dear The majority of people in ulster wanted nothing to do with Britain, that's why youse had to gerrymander 6 of ulsters counties to stay in the UK.

And now even thats under threat, tick tock lads.

Iwasfrozen · 21-11-2016 09:41PM

Peregrinus wrote: »

We can't. EU nationals have a right of free movement throughout the EU. We can't be checking them on entry into Ireland and refusing them entry if they are someone who would require a visa for the UK.

The problem goes away if the UK will afford a right of visa-free entry to all nationals of EU member states. But Teresa May seems to think - and for all I know she may be right - that the whole reason people voted for Brexit was because they didn't want the UK to do that, or at any rate they didn't want the UK to be committed to doing that.

We can. The proposal is aimed at non-European immigrants attempting to enter the CTA between the UK and Ireland.

Iwasfrozen · 21-11-2016 09:45PM

Bambi wrote: »

400 hundred years of history in ulster? O h Dear The majority of people in ulster wanted nothing to do with Britain, that's why youse had to gerrymander 6 of ulsters counties to stay in the UK.

And now even thats under threat, tick tock lads.

Oh give over, you lot have been tick tocking for 90 years.

Your descendents will still be tick tocking long after you're gone...

steddyeddy · 21-11-2016 11:37PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Yes, It's a financial sink that'll get its plug pulled if it refuses to go along with the Brexit.

If the UK becomes worse off so will NI. It's fecked.

Iwasfrozen · 21-11-2016 11:43PM

steddyeddy wrote: »

If the UK becomes worse off so will NI. It's fecked.

If the UK becomes worse off, Ireland becomes worse off.

steddyeddy · 21-11-2016 11:49PM

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

If the UK becomes worse off, Ireland becomes worse off.

Ireland will be worse off. As will the EU.

A Little Pony · 21-11-2016 11:53PM

Bambi wrote: »

A Little Pony wrote: »

Northern Ireland is part of the Union and is a British state. Even Irish Republicans acknowledge the fact it is a separate entity from the Irish Republic.

You must have missed the last 400 years of history in Ulster to come to that conclusion.

400 hundred years of history in ulster? O h Dear The majority of people in ulster wanted nothing to do with Britain, that's why youse had to gerrymander 6 of ulsters counties to stay in the UK.

And now even thats under threat, tick tock lads.

Go look at the history of the ties between Ulster Protestants and Britain. It isn't a coincidence that those ties have existed for centuries and they didn't wake up one day and decide to like Britain.

FrancieBrady wrote: »

A Little Pony wrote: »

You must have missed the last 400 years of history in Ulster to come to that conclusion.

You turned on the British when you didn't get your sectarian way. So much so that they now spend more time and money (according to unionism/oyalism) appeasing nationalists.

Turned on the British? How can a people turn on themselves?

Iwasfrozen · 21-11-2016 11:54PM

steddyeddy wrote: »

Ireland will be worse off. As will the EU.

Ireland more than the rest.

steddyeddy · 22-11-2016 12:02AM

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

Ireland more than the rest.

I think the UK economy will fall by a greater percentage.

swampgas · 22-11-2016 12:02AM

Fratton Fred wrote: »

taking back control was just a catch phrase the Brexit campaign used and like all good political catch phrases, it can mean different things to different people.

To some, it is taking back control of trade deals, to others it is taking back control of borders, to others, it is taking back control of legislation or control of fishing rights.

whilst in that lot, there may be some isolationists, when you consider that only 51% voted to leave, you can safely presume that a relatively small percentage of those are isolationists and therefore, Britain will not seek a policy of isolation.

This is the biggest problem with creating a Brexit strategy, no one actually knows what it means as a whole, because it means different things to different people.

My point ties in with this - the voters seem to want to trade but not to engage culturally or politically with the other EU countries. In other words, they are isolating themselves from Europe in the sense that they are rejecting many of the core concepts of the EU, which are far broader than simple trade deals.

It's significant just how little the general UK voter understands the way the EU is understood across the rest of the EU. It's far from perfect and there are many critics, but there is much more willingness to see the positive side of the EU project once you get across the channel.

FrancieBrady · 22-11-2016 12:06AM

A Little Pony wrote: »

Go look at the history of the ties between Ulster Protestants and Britain. It isn't a coincidence that those ties have existed for centuries and they didn't wake up one day and decide to like Britain.

Turned on the British? How can a people turn on themselves?

The most ardent unionist you had, M. Thatcher considered pulling out and had her gov look into it.
That will happen again. Pragmatism will be what ends it, not romanticism, Unionist or Republican.
It is an unrequited love and has been for a long time.

*Arlene is fond of referring to 'the British' as an other entity, and she is right too, even if it is a faux pas on her behalf.

Iwasfrozen · 22-11-2016 12:13AM

steddyeddy wrote: »

I think the UK economy will fall by a greater percentage.

An Ireland with a weakened economy, whether that is weakened to a greater or a lesser degree than the UK wll not be a stable Ireland and will not be an Ireland conductove to unification.

FrancieBrady · 22-11-2016 12:19AM

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

An Ireland with a weakened economy, whether that is weakened to a greater or a lesser degree than the UK wll not be a stable Ireland and will not be an Ireland conductove to unification.

We will have to make the best of a stupid decision by the UK.
We will suffer but one of the prizes will be, less of a dependence on the UK.

Not ideal to have to do that, but we will have to find new markets for our goods and that is eminently doable.

steddyeddy · 22-11-2016 12:24AM

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

An Ireland with a weakened economy, whether that is weakened to a greater or a lesser degree than the UK wll not be a stable Ireland and will not be an Ireland conductove to unification.

My da could beat your da ect. Give up the childish one up manship. I don't think you believe your own posts.

swampgas · 22-11-2016 12:24AM

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

An Ireland with a weakened economy, whether that is weakened to a greater or a lesser degree than the UK will not be a stable Ireland and will not be an Ireland conducive to unification.

There is the possibility of EU funding to prop up Ireland. I have no idea how likely this might be, but we had decades of structural funds, so maybe the EU would find a way to reduce the impact on Ireland. Might be wishful thinking on my part though. Or maybe business relocating from the UK will make up some of the shortfall. Who knows ...

Personally I don't see reunification on the cards at all in the short term. If a significant Brexit occurs then it will be ten years before things settle down to an extent that politicians are even prepared to think about it.

Iwasfrozen · 22-11-2016 12:29AM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

We will have to make the best of a stupid decision by the UK.
We will suffer but one of the prizes will be, less of a dependence on the UK.

Not ideal to have to do that, but we will have to find new markets for our goods and that is eminently doable.

We don't choose our exposure to the UK. The EU does.

Iwasfrozen · 22-11-2016 12:32AM

steddyeddy wrote: »

My da could beat your da ect. Give up the childish one up manship. I don't think you believe your own posts.

A) That's rich coming from a person who (and you will deny this) doesn't see unionism as a legitimate ideology.

swampgas wrote: »

There is the possibility of EU funding to prop up Ireland. I have no idea how likely this might be, but we had decades of structural funds, so maybe the EU would find a way to reduce the impact on Ireland. Might be wishful thinking on my part though. Or maybe business relocating from the UK will make up some of the shortfall. Who knows ...

Personally I don't see reunification on the cards at all in the short term. If a significant Brexit occurs then it will be ten years before things settle down to an extent that politicians are even prepared to think about it.

I imagine it's massive wishful thinking on your part. Brexit will probably trigger a recession in Ireland. Best we start preparing.

Brexit: The Last Stand (No name calling)

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