The Next President of France will be...

Bob24 · 10-11-2016 4:44pm

Lackey wrote: »

I predicted Brexit and Trump.
I think le Penn will win
The people are pissed off and trying something else.
We'll be here in 2017 reading the shocked posts asking if old people should have the right to vote etc etc

I still doubt it for 2017 (there are similar things at play in France than in the UK or the US, but a French presidential campaign is not binary like a referendum or the US system with just 2 parties, and therefore spreads-out the votes out more in the first round while directing them to the most consensual candidate in the run-off).

2022 is clearly within reach though.

Chips Lovell · 10-11-2016 4:55pm

One would hope that French voters, even if they were tempted by the lure of populism, would treat Britain and America as guinea pigs for isolationism and see how they fare for a few years before opting for the same path themselves.

GreenFolder2 · 10-11-2016 6:12pm

Le Pen may well do quite well, but she's very unlikely to get through the second round.

You have to remember that France operates a 2-stage electoral system. In the first round, all candidates are voted for and the choice is then narrowed down to the final two who are presented for a final run-off a week later.

It's very likely that Le Pen might get a high enough poll to get into the final two, but then you will have the FN vote vs EVERYONE else voting for, most likely Alain Juppé.

Unlike the US elections where the Republicans have a big broad core vote, Le Pen's national front is incredibly polarising and narrow. It's very, very, very unlikely they could get >50% of the entire French electorate and it's not like people will abstain or vote for her as a protest as the party is utterly repulsive to a broad spectrum of voters.

Sarkozy has a lot of baggage from the last time and is quite disliked by a lot of voters and Hollande is currently circling the drain on 13% approval which has utterly destroyed the socialist party's vote, no matter who they run.

So, it's looking far more likely that Alain Juppé will take the presidency.

yo soy carlos · 10-11-2016 7:16pm

[QUOTE=GreenFolder2;10162234

Le Pen's national front is incredibly polarising and narrow. It's very, very, very unlikely they could get >50% of the entire French electorate and it's not like people will abstain or vote for her as a protest as the party is utterly repulsive to a broad spectrum of voters.

Sarkozy has a lot of baggage from the last time and is quite disliked by a lot of voters and Hollande is currently circling the drain on 13% approval which has utterly destroyed the socialist party's vote, no matter who they run.
[/QUOTE]

Remind you of someone and somewhere!!!!!!
Repulsive to some especially the elite and media against the discredited establishment candidate.
Lets sicken them all and import manif pour tous for referendum

4068ac1elhodqr · 10-11-2016 7:17pm

Le Pen is quickly becoming the most backed choice on the Betting markets to become President of France, and may shortly become the favorite. Sarkozy has 10/1 chance.

CelticRambler · 11-11-2016 12:22am

Bob24 wrote: »

a French presidential campaign is not binary like a referendum or the US system with just 2 parties, and therefore spreads-out the votes out more in the first round while directing them to the most consensual candidate in the run-off

GreenFolder2 wrote: »

You have to remember that France operates a 2-stage electoral system. In the first round, all candidates are voted for and the choice is then narrowed down to the final two who are presented for a final run-off a week later.

Up to now, France's presidential elections have, in effect, always been binary precisely because of the two-round system. The first round makes it look like the people have a choice, and they can do what they like with their vote, because the second round - until now - has always been a run-off between the pre-defined candidates for the Left and the Right.

Saying "the choice is then narrowed down" suggests that there's some kind of serious selection going on. No, there isn't. It's simply the two candidates with the most votes, even if between them they attracted less than 25% of the votes cast, and there's only 0.05% of a difference between the second and third placed candidates (c.f. the infamous Le Pen - Chirac - Jospin contest of 2002)

That's the reason Marine Le Pen will get through to the second round. She doesn't need to do or be anything, other than a collector of protest votes, and there are more than enough of them to go around.

Jep Gambardella wrote:

One would hope that French voters, even if they were tempted by the lure of populism, would treat Britain and America as guinea pigs for isolationism and see how they fare for a few years before opting for the same path themselves.

One would hope so, yes. Unfortunately, I've met far too many of them who think exactly like the Trumpist Brexiters to have that kind of faith!

Bob24 · 11-11-2016 10:32am

CelticRambler wrote: »

Up to now, France's presidential elections have, in effect, always been binary precisely because of the two-round system. The first round makes it look like the people have a choice, and they can do what they like with their vote, because the second round - until now - has always been a run-off between the pre-defined candidates for the Left and the Right.

Note that I said a French presidential campaign is not binary (as opposed to a yes/no referendum or a Trump/Clinton campaign).

The second round does indeed offer a binary choice, but months of campaigning and a first round before it do spread out public opinions across 6+ candidates and across many shades of grey in the political spectrum. When you come in as a not so moderate candidate after this, it is difficult to gather the support of the many people who voted for someone else in the first round within the short 2 weeks leading to the second round (those people will in majority tend to go to the more consensual option).

GreenFolder2 · 11-11-2016 5:29pm

CelticRambler wrote: »

Saying "the choice is then narrowed down" suggests that there's some kind of serious selection going on. No, there isn't. It's simply the two candidates with the most votes, even if between them they attracted less than 25% of the votes cast, and there's only 0.05% of a difference between the second and third placed candidates (c.f. the infamous Le Pen - Chirac - Jospin contest of 2002)

The issue though is whether there are enough people who can't stand Le Pen / FN to vote against her.

Hollande's deeply unpopular, but there is still a large left vote that isn't very likely to go to Le Pen, even in a protest vote.

If she does get through though, it's more likely to just cause France to go into a state of complete paralysis as there is no way the FN would have enough candidates or share of vote to get the parliamentary domination they would need and other parties would be EXTREMELY hostile to Le Pen, so the country would likely cease to function.

yo soy carlos · 11-11-2016 7:40pm

GreenFolder2 wrote: »

The issue though is whether there are enough people who can't stand Le Pen / FN to vote against her.

Hollande's deeply unpopular, but there is still a large left vote that isn't very likely to go to Le Pen, even in a protest vote.

If she does get through though, it's more likely to just cause France to go into a state of complete paralysis as there is no way the FN would have enough candidates or share of vote to get the parliamentary domination they would need and other parties would be EXTREMELY hostile to Le Pen, so the country would likely cease to function.

In the European elections in 2014 the FN won 25% of the votes and 21 of Frances 74 seats.With similar results to the parliament the FN will still have very low representation but if they achieve 33 or more percent they will have a huge voice in the national assembly.Le Pen probably needs 35% in the first round with Sarkozy or Hollande finishing second as Juppe would probably defeat her.

CelticRambler · 11-11-2016 8:30pm

Bob24 wrote: »

The second round does indeed offer a binary choice, but months of campaigning and a first round before it do spread out public opinions across 6+ candidates and across many shades of grey in the political spectrum. When you come in as a not so moderate candidate after this, it is difficult to gather the support of the many people who voted for someone else in the first round within the short 2 weeks leading to the second round (those people will in majority tend to go to the more consensual option).

GreenFolder2 wrote: »

The issue though is whether there are enough people who can't stand Le Pen / FN to vote against her.
...
If she does get through though, it's more likely to just cause France to go into a state of complete paralysis as there is no way the FN would have enough candidates or share of vote to get the parliamentary domination they would need and other parties would be EXTREMELY hostile to Le Pen, so the country would likely cease to function.

Therein lies the major flaw in the French system (which, iirc, a certain François Hollande promised would be reformed ... :rolleyes: ) France's next president will be elected in the first round, probably on the strength of as little as 12% of the national vote.

French voters know that only the "top two" go through to the second round, so they use their first round vote to express dissastifaction or idealism or whatever motivates them, all the time expecting to have a choice of just the two mainstream candidates in the second round. In 2017, there's little doubt that Le Pen will get through because (a) she started her campaign last year and is still the only confirmed candidate for next year, and (b) her supporters will give her 25-30% of the vote, leaving the other 70% to be split five or six ways. The rest of the electorate (and the other potential candidates) have not updated their way of thinking to take account of this.

Unless the PS and LR come up with two very strong candidates, neither will get more votes than Le Pen, leaving round two as a choice between her or a traditional/establishment figure. Despite all the whinging and moaning, the French electorate doesn't like disrupting the status quo (which is why the country hasn't functioned in decades

)

The only way I see any surprise in the outcome would be for someone like Macron standing as an independent to knock both the LR and PS candidates out of the race ... or possibly-maybe-but-unlikely stealing just enough of Le Pen's protest/change-is-good votes and nudge her into third place and turn round two into a run-off between independent vs establishment.

GreenFolder2 · 11-11-2016 8:42pm

Bear in mind though that the European Elections are different in two ways.

1. They're proportional rather than first past the post as per normal French elections - so the ease of getting people over the line with small % is quite a lot higher as the dominance of the big parties is reduced.
2. They're not as relevant to day-to-day life, so people tend to have used them for protest votes / sticking it to the EU. FN has taken on a bit of UKIP style approach to being the French anti-EU voice in recent years.

RobertKK · 13-11-2016 3:40pm

There is a revolution going on in western societies.

The election of Syriza in Greece was probably the start, but the EU managed to put a lid on them.
Brexit was rocket fuel.
Germans starting to turn against Merkel.
Trump beat Hillary in what the liberal media couldn't see in their society.
Italy has problems that could boil over.
The French will vote for Marine Le Pen, which could be the real catalyst for the fall of the EU, which would be the biggest disaster to hit Europe since WW2.

The problem for France is the Socialists and the Republican parties have done so much to disillusion the French people, that the door is open for the National Front and Marine Le Pen.

Bad governance is going to lead to really bad outcomes.

4068ac1elhodqr · 13-11-2016 4:17pm

Welcome to the Western Spring

GreenFolder2 · 13-11-2016 4:52pm

I agree things have been pushed way too far but I think the reaction in a lot of countries is looking like it's going to lead to major social regression because the solutions being proposed are not solving the problems.

A lot of this is about growing income and opportunity inequality. So the natural outcome is elected a billionaire, blue blood, property developer as president and champion of the people.

Bernie was definitely needed.

At best Trump will be a flop and just run a boringly conservative American version of centre right administration at worst he might cause major social unrest and a different type of crisis.

Politics in the USA in particular hasn't been listening for decades and the Republicans played with fire by pandering to the religious right, gun nuts, homophobes and racists to get ahead in the polls.
While the democrats abandoned any sense of principles and went off on some kind of dull corporate approach.

The two working against each other has been so negative it's destroyed all sense of trust in politics.

So they've both got themselves to thank for Trump.

In France the governments rolled in behind Merkel, pillorying Greece and making France look weak.

Along comes Marine ...

Leonard Hofstadter · 13-11-2016 10:44pm

I think Marine LePen will win. After all, Brexit and Trump couldn't win, and they did. Once that happens, our current Government's attempts to cosy up to Trump won't look half as pathetic after all.

ChikiChiki · 13-11-2016 10:54pm

captainspeed wrote: »

I think Marine LePen will win. After all, Brexit and Trump couldn't win, and they did. Once that happens, our current Government's attempts to cosy up to Trump won't look half as pathetic after all.

Our Government will cosy up to the flavour of the day. They know where there bread is buttered. Genuinely think it's looking omnimous and we've a very rocky few years ahead in Europe. People are pissed and bitter.

Marine Le Pen will win and I believe Afd are gaining in Germany.

Leonard Hofstadter · 13-11-2016 11:05pm

ChikiChiki wrote: »

Our Government will cosy up to the flavour of the day. They know where there bread is buttered. Genuinely think it's looking omnimous and we've a very rocky few years ahead in Europe. People are pissed and bitter.

Marine Le Pen will win and I believe Afd are gaining in Germany.

Another big problem is the internet, you only have to look at how easily manipulated people are. For example, on certain left-wing sites on facebook, there are people going around spreading false images of Simon Harris smoking (the man does not, and never has, smoked), and of course the Shinners were found to be selectively quoting Leo Varadkar to make him out to be saying something completely different to what he was actually saying.

I don't really know how this is tackled, though. Do we ban sites because we don't like what they might have to say? I don't think so, anyway if you ban something then it creates a publicity all of its own. But something needs to be done, many, many people out there believe things that demonstrably untrue to be true.

People have always been easily manipulated, but far from the internet being able to hold liars to account, it enables them to tell more and greater lies. People now believe all sorts of things that are simply not true by any objective measure, sure we're told that climate change is a hoax and a liberal/left stitch-up, all Muslims are terrorists etc. Just look at Trump and Brexit, every time their falsehoods were pointed out it was all part of a 'conspiracy' by the 'establishment', sadly we live in a world where the truth and the facts don't matter, even amongst more educated people. Even in newspapers the right-wing British press manipulates the facts to suit the argument (everything, and I mean, everything, can be blamed on the EU and/or immigrants). Not that the left is any better with their 'safe-spaces', 'no-platforming', 'trigger-warnings' and other mad ideas in Universities when someone challenges their world view.

Education is supposed to enable us to become more and more objective - and to teach us how to think, not what to think.

I wouldn't be so sure about AfD, but Marine LePen will win, I'm convinced of that unless the PS or LR find someone who could credibly be classed as an 'outsider' and will appeal to the main stream French voter. OK, she's starting from a much lower base than Trump or the Remain side started from, but neither of those things were supposed to happen, and they did. Conventional wisdom says she won't become President, because 50% of the French electorate will not vote for someone like her, but conventional wisdom also said that a majority of British voters wouldn't vote to leave the EU and the Americans wouldn't vote for Trump, and we saw where that got us.

I was, and remain, dogmatically in favour of the EU, but if France votes to leave (which if they vote for her, they will) then we really need to think about where do we stand on all of this, we will once again be totally reliant on the UK and the US for our prosperity and trade. Of course we have to hope, and keep hoping, that LePen won't get it, but we'd be beyond foolish to assume it won't happen. The impossible has happened twice in a few months, no reason to suggest it won't happen again.

And yes, I did think Enda went over the top with what he said about Trump, but thinking about the long-term interests of the country, he was right to do so, with the way the EU is going at the moment, we need to be on the UK and US's side now more than ever.

ZeitgeistGlee · 13-11-2016 11:20pm

I'd like to see Juppe win but I think the climate in the West/Europe could push Le Pen through.

Leonard Hofstadter · 13-11-2016 11:45pm

ZeitgeistGlee wrote: »

I'd like to see Juppe win but I think the climate in the West/Europe could push Le Pen through.

If Clinton/Trump teaches us one thing, it is being an 'establishment' candidate is a massive turn-off at present. I suppose at least Juppe is a man, so that's one excuse for not voting for the 'establishment' candidate out the window, and there is no controversies surrounding him like there was with Clinton and the emails (as far as I know). I don't know if that's enough to save him, though - after all support for the EU in France is only something like 60-40 in favour, it's not a great majority to be starting a campaign on to be honest. I think Juppe is around a long time, which probably doesn't help in this regard. God only knows who the PS will run, it can't be Hollande anyway, he is absolute toast. It's nothing more than wishful thinking to hope it will be an old-school PS vs LR run-off at this stage - the world is changing and the political establishment had better catch up with it fast.

Bob24 · 14-11-2016 10:40am

He's still ahead, but the latest opinion pools for the primary election are showing Juppé is loosing ground very fast. Fillon is the one cashing in and is getting closer to Sarkozy. If Fillon can keep the momentum going and manage to make it to the second round second, there could be a bit of a surprise (I think in a one to one contest v.s. either Juppé or Sarkozy Fillon has strong potential to win).

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Source: http://www.lefigaro.fr/elections/presidentielles/primaires-droite/2016/11/13/35004-20161113ARTFIG00197-sondage-fillon-et-sarkozy-en-hausse-juppe-en-baisse.php

johnp001 · 14-11-2016 10:51am

The LR primaries for the French presidential election are also detailed here on wikipedia:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Republicans_(France)_presidential_primary,_2016

CelticRambler · 14-11-2016 7:53pm

captainspeed wrote: »

Another big problem is the internet, you only have to look at how easily manipulated people are.

People have always been easily manipulated (as you said) and the internet hasn't really changed the business of propaganda. Just think of how many "brave young men" were persuaded to sign up as cannon fodder for two wars in the space of twenty-five years. Plenty of time for the "truth" to come out after the first one, but that didn't change anything for the second.

What makes France's election different to the Brexit and Trump votes (and predictions) is that the French have always taken their politics very seriously, and are ready to debate it with only the slightest provocation. I've been at gatherings where there's been an explicit "no talking politics" ban in force because otherwise calm and gentle folk would start screaming at each other! :eek:

For this reason, they're not as likely to hide their voting intentions when asked in a poll, and French people simply don't use the internet like the "Anglo Saxon" world, so whatever effect it might have is mitigated by their much more important real-world conversations and connections.

Marine Le Pen will almost certainly make it through to the second round, but that's as far as she'll go. There's still a lot of hate for the FN. It's support is mainly amongst the young and in two geographical areas (the North and Provence). The youth vote here is unreliable - they talk the talk, but then do nothing about it, and the old folks (the most racist and xenophobic) who will vote are those most opposed to the FN.

In the end, the next president will probably be chosen by the left. Round 2 will (probably) be MlP vs. LR. As long as the LR candidate isn't Sarkozy, the Left will support the moderate Juppé/Fillon, as will the LR core vote and the centrists. In the unlikely event of it being MlP vs. PS (Macron/Valls) the business-friendly moderate LR's will choose a "progressive" PS candidate over the isolationist MlP; so will the centrists.

The only circumstances that would lead to MlP's election that I can see would be if Sarkozy "FN lite" gets through. In that case, I can imagine a huge level of abstention or spoilt votes from the Left (and some Centre) and some of the harder-core Right will think they might as well vote for the "real thing" than someone who failed to live up to his promises when he had the chance.

CelticRambler · 16-11-2016 12:46pm

Nice bit of strategising yesterday and today! Macron's hat is officially in the ring. Meanwhile, LePen is having trouble keeping the family together.

The latest polls now say Fillon is the best candidate for the Right, and Valls will be the figurehead of the Left but won't be able to shake off the stain of bad government, even if it's not his fault.

So we'll see how things unfold in the next month, but I'm inclined to think that it'll be Le Pen vs. Fillon or Macron in the second round. It's a real shame there can't be three candidates ... but if the second/third place votes are really really close, I would imagine the count being challenged and the second round possibly delayed. That'd be interesting!

Bob24 · 16-11-2016 1:20pm

Macron will fall flat IMO. He is a smart politician but has no party behind him (i.e. no well-oiled campaigning machine), no historical core support base, his target electorate (libertarian/liberal) is shrinking in all Western counties, and he will have to share some of his potential voters with the socialist party candidate (those who find him a bit too economically liberal) and the with LR candidate (those who find him a bit too socially liberal).

One man to watch is Mélanchon. He won't make it to the second round but he has potential to get a higher score than the socialist party in the first round, which could make him the new dominant leader of the left.

Fillon's rise is quite impressive and if he can make it to the second round of the primary he will be the most likely next president of France (in a one to one match he would beat either Juppé or Sarkozy in the second round, and then have the greatest potential for the actual presidential election).

Rjd2 · 20-11-2016 9:13pm

Looks very likely Fillon will run off v Juppe next week. Bye bye Sarko.:P

Le Pen won't be happy, Sarko was the only one of the three I thought she had a chance against.

https://www.rt.com/news/367581-sarkozy-lose-france-primary/

CelticRambler · 20-11-2016 9:51pm

Very sour grapes from one of Sarko's young campaign managers a few minutes ago. He was blaming voters from the Left for turning out in massive numbers to influence the result.

Well, yeah, they did - but I think that's what's called democracy in the Western world!

Even if Fillon doesn't walk away with an outright win tonight, with that much of a lead and even if some of it can be attributed to an anti-Sarkozy vote by the Left, he'll be hard to beat next week. Yet more food for thought for Hollande: how can he possibly run against the New World Order of LePen-Fillon-Macron?

KingBrian2 · 20-11-2016 9:58pm

Juppe is doing really well in popularity scale thus far so provided he is not derailed by personal troubles or media mischaracterization his chances of becoming the next French President are very good.

CelticRambler · 20-11-2016 10:13pm

Juppé is finished. Sarkozy's just said that he's voting Fillon and encouraged his supporters to do the same.

RobertKK · 20-11-2016 10:39pm

Good to see Sarkozy gone, another politician who helped to destroy Libya.

Richard Hillman · 20-11-2016 10:46pm

I reckon the secret Le Pen vote is on an entire different level to the Shy Tory, Shy Trump vote.

Same with AfD.

The Next President of France will be...

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