The Next President of France will be...

Rjd2

So may as well speculate as it will get plenty of coverage next year.:)

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/european-politics/french-election/next-president

Marine Le Pen will get most of the coverage as its very easy tow rite about her whether positively or negatively similar to Trump. I expect her to get past the first round, but its hard to see how she wins, plenty of scandals about her and still so incredibly divisive with those who occupy the centre and the middle.

Sarkozy is making a comeback, but was deeply unpopular,unsure if he can turn it around in 2017. Hollande is a dead duck and may not even run the last time I checked.

Juppe seems the obvious choice, does not have the baggage of Sarkozy or Le Pen, charismatic and the favourite with many polls and the bookies so far.

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/european-politics/french-election/next-president


So who wins:o

No clue if this is right forum or not, please move if not!

BoJack Horseman

It will just repeat the recent election cycles.

1 from the big 2 vs Le Pen in the final ballot.
The big two parties (who are indistinguishable anyway) will merge their vote to defeat Le Pen.

Sarkozy will be the next president.

Suryavarman

Francois Hollande in twice but no Macron?

Rjd2

Suryavarman wrote: »

Francois Hollande in twice but no Macron?

FFS that is dire, I did this poll really late just when I was in the middle of a Bojack Horseman binge, if a mod could rectify that, would be really appreciated.

K-9

Amended, took me a while as I've never done that before!

Rjd2

If you could add Macron that would be great, probably more likely than Hollande at the moment.

Leonard Hofstadter

Hollande is toast. Very, very unpopular in France, and has been for quite a while. A pity from an Irish point of view as he has been far more sympathetic to us than Sarkozy ever was. I don't think LePen will get it, but I wouldn't be surprised if she made it into the run-off, after all, her father managed that feat when the FN were far less popular than they are today.

Interesting that Juppé is also in the running, it's kind of disappointing that Les Républicains are resorting to giving the French two also rans (him and Sarko). I wonder who the PS will choose, they'll hardly let Hollande run (even if he wants to) given his dire standing with the French electorate?

frostyjacks

Hopefully a Trump victory in November will give a little boost to the Le Pen campaign. France badly needs a leader to tackle the Islamification spreading across the country, claiming the lives of scores of French citizens in the process.

Rjd2

captainspeed wrote: »

Hollande is toast. Very, very unpopular in France, and has been for quite a while. A pity from an Irish point of view as he has been far more sympathetic to us than Sarkozy ever was. I don't think LePen will get it, but I wouldn't be surprised if she made it into the run-off, after all, her father managed that feat when the FN were far less popular than they are today.

Interesting that Juppé is also in the running, it's kind of disappointing that Les Républicains are resorting to giving the French two also rans (him and Sarko). I wonder who the PS will choose, they'll hardly let Hollande run (even if he wants to) given his dire standing with the French electorate?

From what I have read even her biggest critics expect her in the run off, its just she is so divisive and has so many skeletons in the closet mainly her father to hit her with.

Maybe I am totally wrong here and the French posters can correct me if wrong, but a lazy comparison, it might be like Adams in Ireland, no matter the policies, they are people who will simply never vote for a Le Pen as president, or like Trump its "No I might dislike the alternative, but over my dead body does she become president" etc

Bob24

At this stage no-one can tell. But most likely whoever the right picks as their candidate.

Macon doesn't stand a chance (he is on his own and doesn't have a party structure behind him while not really offering anything different when you look behind his marketing), and rejection for Hollande and the let in general is very strong almost disqualifying them for sure.

Le Pen will likely come first in the first round and be able to clame her party is the most popular in France. This will technically be true, but it will also be one of the parties which is completely rejected by the largest number of people, making it very unlikely that she can gather more than 50% of the votes, which is required to make it through the second round.

The primary election for "Les Républicains" (LR) is looking like that actual presidential election as whoever is selected (Sarkozy or Juppé) is very likely to become president.

The crazy thing is: the winner will likely be an LR candidate which LR voters don't really like, but which gets elected by left wing voters who want to avoid Le Pen at any cost. I am worried this will make the country even more unmanageable as that candidate will have very little legitimity with the population (right wing voters who voted for him will expect him to have a hard stance on things like immigration, but at the same time left wing voters will organise protest after protest if it happens as they will be frustrated that they elected him but he is not doing what they want him to).

Thomas_...

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

It will just repeat the recent election cycles.

1 from the big 2 vs Le Pen in the final ballot.
The big two parties (who are indistinguishable anyway) will merge their vote to defeat Le Pen.

Sarkozy will be the next president.

If, then only to prevent Le Pen becoming President of the French Republic.

I recommend to Keep an eye on new developments in the Med where traffickers have already started in Egypt to bring more migrants to Europe the same way they used to do it from Libya for they can rely on the the big rescue ships that take them and bring them to Italy. If they make it to France later and France is facing a mass influx of migrants coming via Italy or other ways, the time is ripe for a success of the far-right like it wasn´t like it was never before.

I´m not for Le Pen, but Sarko is a proven big mouth with nothing but hot air. His own record on previous terms proves that.

blackwhite

Sarkozy getting the LR nod is probably the only route for Le Pen to win.

Public apathy/disdain (in particular from left-leaning voters) towards Sarko could easily result in a lot of non-FN voters not turning out for the 2nd round, handing a unexpected victory to Le Pen.

It's unlikely, but Sarko is deeply unpopular with certain sections of the French public.

Bob24

blackwhite wrote: »

Sarkozy getting the LR nod is probably the only route for Le Pen to win.

Public apathy/disdain (in particular from left-leaning voters) towards Sarko could easily result in a lot of non-FN voters not turning out for the 2nd round, handing a unexpected victory to Le Pen.

It's unlikely, but Sarko is deeply unpopular with certain sections of the French public.

Another route is for Hollande (or another socialist) to somehow manage to make it to the second round with Le Pen. This is unlikely at this stage but not impossible - politics are sometimes surprising.

A large part of LR voters hate Hollande so much that they would either not vote or even turn to Le Pen. In that configuration she would have a very serious chance of winning (see opinion polls).

Thomas_...

Some controversial project initiated by the French government to do something against the radicalisation among their Muslim population. The article describes the Project as being something like a boot camp to tackle radicalisation. The locals are worried and the FN has joined their protests against it.

http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-37454697

Inside France's 'boot camp' for wavering radicals

Under pressure to tackle home-grown jihadism, the French government is opening a string of rehabilitation centres to combat extremism - and the first one is already proving controversial.
...
These villagers are outraged that a small chateau on their doorstep is about to become France's first Centre for Prevention, Integration and Citizenship — or what some call a de-radicalisation boot camp.
...

I appears to me that the villagers already see those potential camp residents already as some sort of criminals, whether convicted or not. But in due course, the article gives a bit more of explanation on the very subject that makes the locals there so outraged.

Despite official assurances that the first residents of the centre would come "voluntarily" and be restricted to those who had "never been convicted for acts linked to radicalisation", Michel, who heads the local protest group, is unconvinced.

Such assurances doesn´t work to calm down the mood of the locals, they say:

"We live with fear in our stomachs," he says, "especially after Nice."

He adds that the lorry driver responsible for mowing down 90 people on Bastille Day as they watched a firework show on the French Riviera had no criminal record.

Fears might rather increase by the figures given by the French PM regarding the numbers of radicalised people they have under surveilance.

French Prime Minister Manuel Valls has said nearly 15,000 people in France were on the radar of police and intelligence services because they are suspected of being radicalised, while 1,350 are under investigation - 293 because of alleged links with a terrorism network.

This one is supposed to be the first of a total of 13 centres to be opened.

From now until the end of 2017 the state plans to open 13 residential rehabilitation centres - one in each region of France - at a reported cost of £40m. They will accommodate different kinds of people - some may be for hardened radicals who have recently come back from Syria or been released from prison.

But the first one to open is more of a prevention centre - "de-radicalisation light".

Seems that the locals are already looking through this Project of the French govt:

"Francois Hollande is desperate to be seen to be doing something to fight extremism," she says. "But he'll lose anyway," Michel interjects. Who'll win, I ask. I'll tell you after another glass of wine, he replies.

The FN is trying to exploit the annoyance of the locals:

At the top of the drive leading to the chateau, Michel's group are holding angry banners and they are joined by Veronique Pean, a regional councillor from the Front National. She hands me a press release which denounces the government's incompetence in the face of Islamist terror.

Opinions on the purpose and success of the project differ considerably. The official statement by the so called "anti-extremism tsar" Muriel Domenach is trying to put it into a meaning of "taking care".

The centre, we're told, is not in the business of de-radicalisation but re-engagement and re-integration. The aim is to support young people who are cut off from their families and friends and "rescue them before they fall off the edge into radicalism", as Domenach puts it.

But why would somebody on the path of radicalisation volunteer to come to a place like this? "It's complicated," says Domenach. "With young people on the brink there's often a tug of war between a thirst for life and a fascination with death."

The Project was accompanied and supported in its outset by a sociologist.

Gerald Bronner, a Grenoble sociologist, who has helped design the programme, says "telling people they are wrong never works. Instead we need to try and open their minds and strengthen their intellectual immunity to extremist ideology.

"But that can't be imposed - they have to do that for themselves."

Sure, he´s right in his last line but somehow, they´ll have to be brought to start with doing that for themselves. Otherwise nothing will change.

The centre has room for 30 recruits but it's unclear how many have so far signed up. ... Residents will have to get up at 06:45 each morning, go to classes and wear uniforms or "certain outfits", as the director puts it. ... They'll study French history, religion and philosophy. Once a week they'll salute the French flag and sing La Marseillaise. ... Residents will be able to do sport, capoeira, slam poetry and horse therapy. ... religious observance, prayers and the wearing of the veil could take place during free time in the residents' bedrooms. ... What about their use of laptops and mobile phones while they're here? "Computers will be strictly pedagogical and anyway," smirks one interior ministry official, "the signal here is terrible." ...

Doesn´t looks like a prison to me, but some restrictions and guidance is at the core of the whole thing. I don´t know why the journalist is bothered with getting out of bed at 6:45 in the morning. Not less People going to work have to get up even earlier.

And what about the concerns of local people? They're "irrational," says the mayor of Beaumont en Veron, adding that 18 cameras and other security measures are in place - although there are no guard dogs. "There's no such thing as zero risk but we must help these young people somehow," he says.

Domenach agrees. "The most dangerous and irresponsible action," she concludes, "would be to do nothing."

Right, the worst thing would be to do nothing and I wonder if this project won´t set up a pattern for handling another problem, just tailored for it, which is the Migrant problem in France.

Today, the FN is joining the protests of the locals and branding the project as the desperate effort by Hollande to show the public that he´s about to tackle the problem. One can be rather sure that if the FN were in power, they´d go beyond the things which are described in that article.

There is no mention of any sort of military drill in that centre and so, the talk about "boot camp" is more a bit exaggerated and speaks of the usual liberal approach on illiberal people. To find the balance is the major thing but to appear to weak in dealing with radicals will only make the whole project doomed to fail.

PopePalpatine

A former aide of Sarkozy has just released a memoir of his time serving the ex-President, with highlights such as alleging that in 2006 Sarkozy allowed rioters in Paris to reach the centre of the city so he could better show off his ability to restore order, pointing out his "narcissistic personality", exemplified in courting and then marrying Carla Bruni, and claims that Sarkozy lacks any guiding principles.

Bob24

PopePalpatine wrote: »

Sarkozy lacks any guiding principles.

This was already pretty much there image he had with the electorate (both on the left and on the right). He is a survivor but at this stage it is not looking good for him.

Spanish Eyes

The winner will be whoever can fight off the FN.

I don't think that is going to be Valls, but if he keeps up his rhetoric a la the objection to halal only supermarkets etc. he's in with a (very slim) chance. I think the Left have had their day.

Sarkozy is shadowing Le Pen in a Macchiavelian way. Awful man and not popular.

My money is on Alain Juppe.

Rjd2

http://www.politico.eu/article/alain-juppe-pulls-further-ahead-in-primary-race/

Juppe pulling away from Sarko which won't surprise many. Le Pen won't be happy, only way she wins overall is against Sarko as many will stay home, she and any left winger would be stream rolled by Juppe.

iroced

frostyjacks wrote: »

Hopefully a Trump victory in November will give a little boost to the Le Pen campaign. France badly needs a leader to tackle the Islamification spreading across the country, claiming the lives of scores of French citizens in the process.

The last thing we need is Le Pen as president. It'll be civil war in France and I can only hope my country-mates are not duped by Marine apparent smoothness (compared to her dad).

Now. Thing is we've been interchanging right and left parties for 30 years now and the overall situation of France only went downward. The last 2 being by far the worse we ever had :rolleyes: (and it was quite some challenge to beat weather-wane Mitterand and all the affairs he was associated with).

The winner of the right Primary will be very important. I can only hope it's not going to be Sarkozy. How a desperating sign for the country after we sacked him 4 years ago...

Bob24

iroced wrote: »

The last thing we need is Le Pen as president. It'll be civil war in France and I can only hope my country-mates are not duped by Marine apparent smoothness (compared to her dad).

While I am not a supporter of Le Pen, I sadly think France has been getting closer and closer to civil war at a worrying pace in the past few years without needing her - in large part due to the policies of the pat 30 or 40 years which have nothing to do with Le Pen (but whose failure are a direct cause for the rise of Front National).

This is the depressing thing really and the reason people stop voting ... they feel like there is no good option offered to them.

Rjd2

http://www.spectator.co.uk/2016/10/marine-le-pen-wont-be-president-this-time-shes-still-winning/

Interesting read, to summarise like everyone they don't give much of a chance to Marine next year, but 2021 it could be wide open.

I know some think her niece might be only hope for a Le Pen to be president as she has oozes charisma despite been very conservative. Sarah Palin has called her Joan Of Arc ffs:pac:

What we think guys, 2021 will it be Marine or her niece?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/women/politics/exclusive-interview-with-frances-youngest-and-most-controversial/

Bob24

Rjd2 wrote: »

http://www.spectator.co.uk/2016/10/marine-le-pen-wont-be-president-this-time-shes-still-winning/

Interesting read, to summarise like everyone they don't give much of a chance to Marine next year, but 2021 it could be wide open.

I know some think her niece might be only hope for a Le Pen to be president as she has oozes charisma despite been very conservative. Sarah Palin has called her Joan Of Arc ffs:pac:

What we think guys, 2021 will it be Marine or her niece?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/women/politics/exclusive-interview-with-frances-youngest-and-most-controversial/

Yes she is in this game for the long run. If the like of Juppé gets elected, he
will have a bit more of the stature of a statesman than Hollande does, but essentially he is sharing the same ideology (he could very work with some ministers which served under Hollande) and will overall carry on with similar policies (which similarly to Hollande will not do much about the long term issues voters really care about).

This would be perfect for Le Pen, as she could say that while her party has no experience in national governement, it is at least acknowledging the issues the the two mainstream parties have caused together and are ignoring as thy are the direct consequences of their (lack of) policies. In the meantime and as the socialist party collapses, she will also keep developing her network of local elected officials and MPs - which unless those people screw-up completely will make the party look more capable of governing.
So basically all she has to do is stay around, mostly quiet but vocal once in a while on key issues to remind everyone she exists, and wait for the anger which has been growing amongst voters to keep building up and sending more people to her.

On the aunt v.s. niece question - it is an interesting one as they actually have a very different political view. Right now they need both to aggregate enough voters but at some point they will need to make a choice.

ambro25

Rjd2 wrote: »

What we think guys, 2021 will it be Marine or her niece?

If Juppe gets elected in 2017 and manages to do even half of what Sarkozy should have done by 2012, neither will get a look in by 2021.

For all her 'presidentiables', Marine LePen does not strike me as doing any different to what her father did for the past few decades. But for the thin veneer of 21st century-grade semi-respectability she's managed to put on the public face of the party, finalised by her patricidal hostile takeover of 2015, she's just carrying on the fonds de commerce familial on the same model as her father: make enough populist background noise to maintain political relevance afloat, drop the odd PR bombshell when political relevance starts to wane, rinse-repeat.

Unless he gets out-manoeuvred (I can't see it, he's been around long enough to know whose skeletons are where), e.g. scandalised a la Strauss-Kahn by Sarkozy or the PS, Juppe looks a dead cert. He's got the right and centre of his party sewn up, and if you've clocked his electoral poster, you just know his PR handlers are smack-between-the-eyes on the ball.

shane9689

france has always been on the verge of civil unrest, ever since the days of Napoleon, its literally been built into their culture. (but they rarely actually follow through). but this whole political divide is nothing new.
If you look at their history, they never had a fully stable government except for a short period after ww2 when people were exhausted.

CelticRambler

"France" isn't really any more of a united state than Yugoslavia or the USSR. I work all over the country, and some areas feel more foreign to where I've just left than if I'd left the country. Despite the slogan, there's little "égalité" in France - my professional qualification isn't even recognised outside of my home département unless I jump through several administrative hoops - so every government spends considerable time and energy trying to find ways of appeasing militant forces with opposite agendas.

After last night's result, odds on Marine Le Pen winning the presidency have halved.

shane9689

Deleted User wrote: »

After last night's result, odds on Marine Le Pen winning the presidency have halved.

what are you talking about? if anything, her chances went up

shane9689

shane9689 wrote: »

what are you talking about? if anything, her chances went up

Odds halving => Probability goes up...

Lackey

I predicted Brexit and Trump.
I think le Penn will win
The people are pissed off and trying something else.
We'll be here in 2017 reading the shocked posts asking if old people should have the right to vote etc etc

CelticRambler

It's the young people in France who want Le Pen. But then I had a busines contact in the Czech Republic who said his son (same age as mine) thought they should opt out of the EU and re-join the USSR. Even though his father had lived with the shackles, e.g. having to pretend that he couldn't speak English so as to be allowed fly to the West, that "folk memory" had already faded.

There's also a study somewhere online showing that FN support rises in direct proportion to the distance from a railway station. Living smack bang in the middle of the country, I know of many natives (young and old) who think that "Europe" is some exotic territory far, far away (and idea reinforced by sending school children on loooooooooooooong, expensive overnight coach-journeys instead of cheap Ryanair flights).

Over the last couple of decades, ur EU representatives have been inexcusably complacent in outlining the day-to-day benefits of the unions, but that doesn't mean the alternative is going to solve France's difficulties. Perhaps the people will realise that France ideally needs a hard-headed businessman to face the challenge of Trump's reign, and they'll choose to support Emmanuel Macron instead of the heiress to an old political throne.

oscarBravo

CelticRambler wrote: »

Over the last couple of decades, ur EU representatives have been inexcusably complacent in outlining the day-to-day benefits of the unions...

Nobody wants to hear it. If one person is busy telling you how much better you would be without the nasty EU meddling in everything and tying your country up in red tape, and someone else is telling you that actually things are pretty good because of the union, the tendency is to tune in to the promises of better things.

People are really, really crap at objectively evaluating how the EU is dully, routinely making their lives better, and it's very hard to fight the temptation to listen to someone when they tell you they have a solution to your problems.

The pro-EU side of the Brexit referendum always had an uphill struggle. On their side, they had truths about how leaving things as they are would leave people no worse off than they already were. On the other side, they had lies about how change would make them better.

It's the greener grass effect. Until people decide that they want to hear about the good things that are already happening to them, they'll always be more tempted by the better things that could allegedly be on offer.

Bob24

Lackey wrote: »

I predicted Brexit and Trump.
I think le Penn will win
The people are pissed off and trying something else.
We'll be here in 2017 reading the shocked posts asking if old people should have the right to vote etc etc

I still doubt it for 2017 (there are similar things at play in France than in the UK or the US, but a French presidential campaign is not binary like a referendum or the US system with just 2 parties, and therefore spreads-out the votes out more in the first round while directing them to the most consensual candidate in the run-off).

2022 is clearly within reach though.

Chips Lovell

One would hope that French voters, even if they were tempted by the lure of populism, would treat Britain and America as guinea pigs for isolationism and see how they fare for a few years before opting for the same path themselves.

GreenFolder2

Le Pen may well do quite well, but she's very unlikely to get through the second round.

You have to remember that France operates a 2-stage electoral system. In the first round, all candidates are voted for and the choice is then narrowed down to the final two who are presented for a final run-off a week later.

It's very likely that Le Pen might get a high enough poll to get into the final two, but then you will have the FN vote vs EVERYONE else voting for, most likely Alain Juppé.

Unlike the US elections where the Republicans have a big broad core vote, Le Pen's national front is incredibly polarising and narrow. It's very, very, very unlikely they could get >50% of the entire French electorate and it's not like people will abstain or vote for her as a protest as the party is utterly repulsive to a broad spectrum of voters.

Sarkozy has a lot of baggage from the last time and is quite disliked by a lot of voters and Hollande is currently circling the drain on 13% approval which has utterly destroyed the socialist party's vote, no matter who they run.

So, it's looking far more likely that Alain Juppé will take the presidency.

yo soy carlos

[QUOTE=GreenFolder2;10162234

Le Pen's national front is incredibly polarising and narrow. It's very, very, very unlikely they could get >50% of the entire French electorate and it's not like people will abstain or vote for her as a protest as the party is utterly repulsive to a broad spectrum of voters.

Sarkozy has a lot of baggage from the last time and is quite disliked by a lot of voters and Hollande is currently circling the drain on 13% approval which has utterly destroyed the socialist party's vote, no matter who they run.
[/QUOTE]

Remind you of someone and somewhere!!!!!!
Repulsive to some especially the elite and media against the discredited establishment candidate.
Lets sicken them all and import manif pour tous for referendum

4068ac1elhodqr

Le Pen is quickly becoming the most backed choice on the Betting markets to become President of France, and may shortly become the favorite. Sarkozy has 10/1 chance.

CelticRambler

Bob24 wrote: »

a French presidential campaign is not binary like a referendum or the US system with just 2 parties, and therefore spreads-out the votes out more in the first round while directing them to the most consensual candidate in the run-off

GreenFolder2 wrote: »

You have to remember that France operates a 2-stage electoral system. In the first round, all candidates are voted for and the choice is then narrowed down to the final two who are presented for a final run-off a week later.

Up to now, France's presidential elections have, in effect, always been binary precisely because of the two-round system. The first round makes it look like the people have a choice, and they can do what they like with their vote, because the second round - until now - has always been a run-off between the pre-defined candidates for the Left and the Right.

Saying "the choice is then narrowed down" suggests that there's some kind of serious selection going on. No, there isn't. It's simply the two candidates with the most votes, even if between them they attracted less than 25% of the votes cast, and there's only 0.05% of a difference between the second and third placed candidates (c.f. the infamous Le Pen - Chirac - Jospin contest of 2002)

That's the reason Marine Le Pen will get through to the second round. She doesn't need to do or be anything, other than a collector of protest votes, and there are more than enough of them to go around.

Jep Gambardella wrote:

One would hope that French voters, even if they were tempted by the lure of populism, would treat Britain and America as guinea pigs for isolationism and see how they fare for a few years before opting for the same path themselves.

One would hope so, yes. Unfortunately, I've met far too many of them who think exactly like the Trumpist Brexiters to have that kind of faith!

Bob24

CelticRambler wrote: »

Up to now, France's presidential elections have, in effect, always been binary precisely because of the two-round system. The first round makes it look like the people have a choice, and they can do what they like with their vote, because the second round - until now - has always been a run-off between the pre-defined candidates for the Left and the Right.

Note that I said a French presidential campaign is not binary (as opposed to a yes/no referendum or a Trump/Clinton campaign).

The second round does indeed offer a binary choice, but months of campaigning and a first round before it do spread out public opinions across 6+ candidates and across many shades of grey in the political spectrum. When you come in as a not so moderate candidate after this, it is difficult to gather the support of the many people who voted for someone else in the first round within the short 2 weeks leading to the second round (those people will in majority tend to go to the more consensual option).

GreenFolder2

CelticRambler wrote: »

Saying "the choice is then narrowed down" suggests that there's some kind of serious selection going on. No, there isn't. It's simply the two candidates with the most votes, even if between them they attracted less than 25% of the votes cast, and there's only 0.05% of a difference between the second and third placed candidates (c.f. the infamous Le Pen - Chirac - Jospin contest of 2002)

The issue though is whether there are enough people who can't stand Le Pen / FN to vote against her.

Hollande's deeply unpopular, but there is still a large left vote that isn't very likely to go to Le Pen, even in a protest vote.

If she does get through though, it's more likely to just cause France to go into a state of complete paralysis as there is no way the FN would have enough candidates or share of vote to get the parliamentary domination they would need and other parties would be EXTREMELY hostile to Le Pen, so the country would likely cease to function.

yo soy carlos

GreenFolder2 wrote: »

The issue though is whether there are enough people who can't stand Le Pen / FN to vote against her.

Hollande's deeply unpopular, but there is still a large left vote that isn't very likely to go to Le Pen, even in a protest vote.

If she does get through though, it's more likely to just cause France to go into a state of complete paralysis as there is no way the FN would have enough candidates or share of vote to get the parliamentary domination they would need and other parties would be EXTREMELY hostile to Le Pen, so the country would likely cease to function.

In the European elections in 2014 the FN won 25% of the votes and 21 of Frances 74 seats.With similar results to the parliament the FN will still have very low representation but if they achieve 33 or more percent they will have a huge voice in the national assembly.Le Pen probably needs 35% in the first round with Sarkozy or Hollande finishing second as Juppe would probably defeat her.

CelticRambler

Bob24 wrote: »

The second round does indeed offer a binary choice, but months of campaigning and a first round before it do spread out public opinions across 6+ candidates and across many shades of grey in the political spectrum. When you come in as a not so moderate candidate after this, it is difficult to gather the support of the many people who voted for someone else in the first round within the short 2 weeks leading to the second round (those people will in majority tend to go to the more consensual option).

GreenFolder2 wrote: »

The issue though is whether there are enough people who can't stand Le Pen / FN to vote against her.
...
If she does get through though, it's more likely to just cause France to go into a state of complete paralysis as there is no way the FN would have enough candidates or share of vote to get the parliamentary domination they would need and other parties would be EXTREMELY hostile to Le Pen, so the country would likely cease to function.

Therein lies the major flaw in the French system (which, iirc, a certain François Hollande promised would be reformed ... :rolleyes: ) France's next president will be elected in the first round, probably on the strength of as little as 12% of the national vote.

French voters know that only the "top two" go through to the second round, so they use their first round vote to express dissastifaction or idealism or whatever motivates them, all the time expecting to have a choice of just the two mainstream candidates in the second round. In 2017, there's little doubt that Le Pen will get through because (a) she started her campaign last year and is still the only confirmed candidate for next year, and (b) her supporters will give her 25-30% of the vote, leaving the other 70% to be split five or six ways. The rest of the electorate (and the other potential candidates) have not updated their way of thinking to take account of this.

Unless the PS and LR come up with two very strong candidates, neither will get more votes than Le Pen, leaving round two as a choice between her or a traditional/establishment figure. Despite all the whinging and moaning, the French electorate doesn't like disrupting the status quo (which is why the country hasn't functioned in decades )

The only way I see any surprise in the outcome would be for someone like Macron standing as an independent to knock both the LR and PS candidates out of the race ... or possibly-maybe-but-unlikely stealing just enough of Le Pen's protest/change-is-good votes and nudge her into third place and turn round two into a run-off between independent vs establishment.

GreenFolder2

Bear in mind though that the European Elections are different in two ways.

1. They're proportional rather than first past the post as per normal French elections - so the ease of getting people over the line with small % is quite a lot higher as the dominance of the big parties is reduced.
2. They're not as relevant to day-to-day life, so people tend to have used them for protest votes / sticking it to the EU. FN has taken on a bit of UKIP style approach to being the French anti-EU voice in recent years.

RobertKK

There is a revolution going on in western societies.

The election of Syriza in Greece was probably the start, but the EU managed to put a lid on them.
Brexit was rocket fuel.
Germans starting to turn against Merkel.
Trump beat Hillary in what the liberal media couldn't see in their society.
Italy has problems that could boil over.
The French will vote for Marine Le Pen, which could be the real catalyst for the fall of the EU, which would be the biggest disaster to hit Europe since WW2.

The problem for France is the Socialists and the Republican parties have done so much to disillusion the French people, that the door is open for the National Front and Marine Le Pen.

Bad governance is going to lead to really bad outcomes.

4068ac1elhodqr

Welcome to the Western Spring

GreenFolder2

I agree things have been pushed way too far but I think the reaction in a lot of countries is looking like it's going to lead to major social regression because the solutions being proposed are not solving the problems.

A lot of this is about growing income and opportunity inequality. So the natural outcome is elected a billionaire, blue blood, property developer as president and champion of the people.

Bernie was definitely needed.

At best Trump will be a flop and just run a boringly conservative American version of centre right administration at worst he might cause major social unrest and a different type of crisis.

Politics in the USA in particular hasn't been listening for decades and the Republicans played with fire by pandering to the religious right, gun nuts, homophobes and racists to get ahead in the polls.
While the democrats abandoned any sense of principles and went off on some kind of dull corporate approach.

The two working against each other has been so negative it's destroyed all sense of trust in politics.

So they've both got themselves to thank for Trump.

In France the governments rolled in behind Merkel, pillorying Greece and making France look weak.

Along comes Marine ...

Leonard Hofstadter

I think Marine LePen will win. After all, Brexit and Trump couldn't win, and they did. Once that happens, our current Government's attempts to cosy up to Trump won't look half as pathetic after all.

ChikiChiki

captainspeed wrote: »

I think Marine LePen will win. After all, Brexit and Trump couldn't win, and they did. Once that happens, our current Government's attempts to cosy up to Trump won't look half as pathetic after all.

Our Government will cosy up to the flavour of the day. They know where there bread is buttered. Genuinely think it's looking omnimous and we've a very rocky few years ahead in Europe. People are pissed and bitter.

Marine Le Pen will win and I believe Afd are gaining in Germany.

Leonard Hofstadter

ChikiChiki wrote: »

Our Government will cosy up to the flavour of the day. They know where there bread is buttered. Genuinely think it's looking omnimous and we've a very rocky few years ahead in Europe. People are pissed and bitter.

Marine Le Pen will win and I believe Afd are gaining in Germany.

Another big problem is the internet, you only have to look at how easily manipulated people are. For example, on certain left-wing sites on facebook, there are people going around spreading false images of Simon Harris smoking (the man does not, and never has, smoked), and of course the Shinners were found to be selectively quoting Leo Varadkar to make him out to be saying something completely different to what he was actually saying.

I don't really know how this is tackled, though. Do we ban sites because we don't like what they might have to say? I don't think so, anyway if you ban something then it creates a publicity all of its own. But something needs to be done, many, many people out there believe things that demonstrably untrue to be true.

People have always been easily manipulated, but far from the internet being able to hold liars to account, it enables them to tell more and greater lies. People now believe all sorts of things that are simply not true by any objective measure, sure we're told that climate change is a hoax and a liberal/left stitch-up, all Muslims are terrorists etc. Just look at Trump and Brexit, every time their falsehoods were pointed out it was all part of a 'conspiracy' by the 'establishment', sadly we live in a world where the truth and the facts don't matter, even amongst more educated people. Even in newspapers the right-wing British press manipulates the facts to suit the argument (everything, and I mean, everything, can be blamed on the EU and/or immigrants). Not that the left is any better with their 'safe-spaces', 'no-platforming', 'trigger-warnings' and other mad ideas in Universities when someone challenges their world view.

Education is supposed to enable us to become more and more objective - and to teach us how to think, not what to think.

I wouldn't be so sure about AfD, but Marine LePen will win, I'm convinced of that unless the PS or LR find someone who could credibly be classed as an 'outsider' and will appeal to the main stream French voter. OK, she's starting from a much lower base than Trump or the Remain side started from, but neither of those things were supposed to happen, and they did. Conventional wisdom says she won't become President, because 50% of the French electorate will not vote for someone like her, but conventional wisdom also said that a majority of British voters wouldn't vote to leave the EU and the Americans wouldn't vote for Trump, and we saw where that got us.

I was, and remain, dogmatically in favour of the EU, but if France votes to leave (which if they vote for her, they will) then we really need to think about where do we stand on all of this, we will once again be totally reliant on the UK and the US for our prosperity and trade. Of course we have to hope, and keep hoping, that LePen won't get it, but we'd be beyond foolish to assume it won't happen. The impossible has happened twice in a few months, no reason to suggest it won't happen again.

And yes, I did think Enda went over the top with what he said about Trump, but thinking about the long-term interests of the country, he was right to do so, with the way the EU is going at the moment, we need to be on the UK and US's side now more than ever.

ZeitgeistGlee

I'd like to see Juppe win but I think the climate in the West/Europe could push Le Pen through.

Leonard Hofstadter

ZeitgeistGlee wrote: »

I'd like to see Juppe win but I think the climate in the West/Europe could push Le Pen through.

If Clinton/Trump teaches us one thing, it is being an 'establishment' candidate is a massive turn-off at present. I suppose at least Juppe is a man, so that's one excuse for not voting for the 'establishment' candidate out the window, and there is no controversies surrounding him like there was with Clinton and the emails (as far as I know). I don't know if that's enough to save him, though - after all support for the EU in France is only something like 60-40 in favour, it's not a great majority to be starting a campaign on to be honest. I think Juppe is around a long time, which probably doesn't help in this regard. God only knows who the PS will run, it can't be Hollande anyway, he is absolute toast. It's nothing more than wishful thinking to hope it will be an old-school PS vs LR run-off at this stage - the world is changing and the political establishment had better catch up with it fast.

Bob24

He's still ahead, but the latest opinion pools for the primary election are showing Juppé is loosing ground very fast. Fillon is the one cashing in and is getting closer to Sarkozy. If Fillon can keep the momentum going and manage to make it to the second round second, there could be a bit of a surprise (I think in a one to one contest v.s. either Juppé or Sarkozy Fillon has strong potential to win).


Source: http://www.lefigaro.fr/elections/presidentielles/primaires-droite/2016/11/13/35004-20161113ARTFIG00197-sondage-fillon-et-sarkozy-en-hausse-juppe-en-baisse.php