President 'The Donald' Trump and Surprising Consequences - Mod warning in OP

alastair wrote:

I think the media failing to hold Trump accountable for his moveable feast of a platform isn't going to be any indicator as to the reaction of those who sincerely believe that rustbelt jobs will now return, or that muslims/Mexicans will actually be stopped from entering the country. I'd take them at their word that this is what they actually expect. If Trump doesn't produce the goods, no amount of spin is going to help him with those people. The determined GOP voters will probably claim to be happy with whatever he does, but it's not them who got him elected in the first place.

The media never stopped talking about his moving positions. IT. DIDN'T. WORK.

Nor will it work when he changed his positions that in the future.

Anyone who thinks a trump will be a 1 term President is deluding themselves. Take an objective look at the last 18 months. The normal expectation that a politician will explain their work and show the outcomes, went out the window. He's not going to start explaining himself now.

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

The media never stopped talking about his moving positions. IT. DIDN'T. WORK.

Sure. But that's in a context of pure rhetoric, not judging outcomes.

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

Nor will it work when he changed his positions that in the future.

Again - he's not being judged on outcomes.

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

Anyone who thinks a trump will be a 1 term President is deluding themselves. Take an objective look at the last 18 months. The normal expectation that a politician will explain their work and show the outcomes, went out the window. He's not going to start explaining himself now.

No, it didn't. The people who voted for specific policies, will expect those policies to be enacted. If they're not, then they're not going to be interested in excuses or evasions. Governance hasn't been changed just because a candidate changed the style of campaigning.

alastair wrote:

Sure. But that's in a context of pure rhetoric, not judging outcomes.

alastair wrote:

Again - he's not being judged on outcomes.

alastair wrote:

No, it didn't. The people who voted for specific policies, will expect those policies to be enacted. If they're not, then they're not going to be interested in excuses or evasions. Governance hasn't been changed just because a candidate changed the style of campaigning.

People voted for the personality. Lots of people were willing to wright off the Muslim ban as rhetoric. His medium is rhetoric and emotion. Heart trumps head, pun intended.

alastair wrote:

No candidate ever does. There's always a winner.

Never like this. He made so few actual promises during the election campaign. Are you expecting him to build a brick and mortar wall a mile high? That's what he said. Obviously that was rhetoric. He'll boost funding and it will be a metaphorical wall.

alastair wrote:

I doubt it. He's not popular now, and he's only going to fare badly against the promises he made.

He didn't make one promise that I expect him to keep. The wall was rhetoric. The illegal immigration deportation squads were rhetoric.

We need to stop expecting him to conform to normal rules because he didn't play by the rules and he won

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

The illegal immigration deportation squads were rhetoric.

In his first 100 days he says he'll deport 3 million illegals.

They dont just pack up and leave on their own.

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

This idea what Trump is stupid, has to go away. Look up some of the strokes he pulled throughout his career. His career has always been about politics, it just hasn't been in public service

Clinton wasn't stupid. Nixon wasn't stupid. Trump is inexperienced in Washington and likes to sail close to the wind. And his career, particularly the latter half, has mostly been about salesmanship.

Amerika wrote: »

Correct, and it works. And there is legislation already on the books to build the wall. Secure Fence Act of 2006. How ‘bout that... Trump merely wants to follow the law. Shock, Horror!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Secure_Fence_Act_of_2006

Methinks the reports of Trump’s demise are greatly exaggerated.

The Secure Fence Act of 2006 is nothing to do with Trump's wall. Firstly the clue is in the name - it's a fence. And the extent of this fence?:

(A) Reinforced fencing.--In carrying out
subsection (a), the Secretary of Homeland Security shall
provide for least 2 layers of reinforced fencing, the
installation of additional physical barriers, roads,
lighting, cameras, and sensors--
``(i) extending from 10 miles west of the Tecate, California, port of entry to 10 miles east of the Tecate, California, port of entry;
``(ii) extending from 10 miles west of the Calexico, California, port of entry to 5 miles east of the Douglas, Arizona, port of entry;
``(iii) extending from 5 miles west of the Columbus, New Mexico, port of entry to 10 miles east of El Paso, Texas;
``(iv) extending from 5 miles northwest of the Del Rio, Texas, port of entry to 5 miles southeast of the Eagle Pass, Texas, port of entry; and
``(v) extending 15 miles northwest of the Laredo, Texas, port of entry to the Brownsville, Texas, port of entry.

So - 350 miles of fence, which is afaik, already in place. Compared to Trump's 1000 mile long wall. So, no. It's nothing to do with following the existing law.

alastair wrote:

The electorate expect policy from a president, not personality.

They just did that exact thing.

alastair wrote:

35-45 feet high was what he claimed. And yes - people took the promise at face value. 'Metaphorical' walls aren't going to cut it - there's already one of those in place.

And he said it would be 1,000feet tall. And he said it would cover the whole border. Neither if those things are realistic. You have an idea of what he meant but you don't have a chance if holding him to your idea. He makes so many pronouncements, sobe if which are contradictory. That's the perfect ground to do whatever he wants and declare victory.

alastair wrote:

What you believe isn't really the point. He convinced many that these were serious positions.

He won't do any of those things abf hus supporters won't hold him to anything.

alastair wrote:

Whether he conforms to rules or not, he'll still be judged on the outcomes. If the outcomes don't match the commitments, then there will be a backlash.

He didn't make any commitments. Ge doesn't hace a manifesto that you can hold him to. Only hours of talking off the top of his head in campaign speeches.

InTheTrees wrote:

In his first 100 days he says he'll deport 3 million illegals. They dont just pack up and leave on their own.

Campaign talk. They already deport people every day. He only needs to deport a few extra people and report the progress. Simple as that.

The spin will take care of the rest

The thing you're forgetting is that he controlled that narrative for the entire primary and election. Even when his numbers went down it was his own narrative (gold star family). He'll conrtol the narrative for his entire presidency and he won't spend much time hand wringing and comparing his election rhetoric with the outcomes.

He'll drop a dead cat on the table and we'll all that about how the cat died, not his election rhetoric.

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

They just did that exact thing.



And he said it would be 1,000feet tall. And he said it would cover the whole border. Neither if those things are realistic. You have an idea of what he meant but you don't have a chance if holding him to your idea. He makes so many pronouncements, sobe if which are contradictory. That's the perfect ground to do whatever he wants and declare victory.



He won't do any of those things abf hus supporters won't hold him to anything.


He didn't make any commitments. Ge doesn't hace a manifesto that you can hold him to. Only hours of talking off the top of his head in campaign speeches.


Campaign talk. They already deport people every day. He only needs to deport a few extra people and report the progress. Simple as that.

The spin will take care of the rest

The thing you're forgetting is that he controlled that narrative for the entire primary and election. Even when his numbers went down it was his own narrative (gold star family). He'll conrtol the narrative for his entire presidency and he won't spend much time hand wringing and comparing his election rhetoric with the outcomes.

He'll drop a dead cat on the table and we'll all that about how the cat died, not his election rhetoric.

I'm really not forgetting anything. Once again - he'll be held to his platform promises by those who voted on the basis of those promises. No getting past that.

So disenfranchised are some of those who voted for him, if he achieves 30% of what they wanted they will give him a pass.

alastair wrote:

I'm really not forgetting anything. Once again - he'll be held to his platform promises by those who voted on the basis of those promises. No getting past that.

What promises? To repeal Obama care? He since said he's going to keep Obama care and fiddle with it a bit.

alastair wrote:

I'm seeing more disappointment in your future than others, if you think that's how politics works.

He doesn't play by the normal rules. His whole career is built on telling people what they want to hear specifically so they don't hold him to his word on anything.

All he has to do is crate new shiny issues for people to get upset over. Wall, what wall?

FrancieBrady wrote:

So disenfranchised are some of those who voted for him, if he achieves 30% of what they wanted they will give him a pass.

They'll never even bother with the things he talked about in the election.
He'll just invent new issues to focus on and argue about (foreign policy enemies and terrorists are 2 classics and they don't really have metrics to gauge success) and focus on successes in the meantime.

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

You answer your own point. He'll put on a show, deport a few people, build a few miles of wall, pump sone money into border security and declare job done. And his supporters will also declare 'job done'.

They'll be distracted by whatever crisis and wedge issues of the day.

The last 18 months of trying to hold him to his statements was a complete joke. He won't be any more accountable to his campaign rhetoric as president.

The same people who hate Obama care will love 'Trump Care' once he fiddles without a bit.

I don't think you can just disappear the wall stuff. As long as there are too many immigrants and too much crime, it will always be an issue.

K-9 wrote:

I don't think you can just disappear the wall stuff. As long as there are too many immigrants and too much crime, it will always be an issue.

If sexual assault and racism aren't an issue, what on earth makes you think piddling campaign rhetoric will be a problem for him?

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

He was up against someone with a track record in politics. The people wanted Trump.

I'm not disputing that he won the election!

He doesn't have public service experience but I'd argue that his entire career has been politics.

I know you would but his career has been in real estate, reality TV and licensing.

Are we talking about whether he'll do what he said in the campaign and build a 1,000 foot wall, ban all Muslims until 'we figure it out' or whether he'll be popular and get reelected? He won't bother with the former and he'll smash the latter.

I'm talking about wherever he'll do anything on climate change, pursue more isolationist policies etc. I wouldn't be so confident that he'll maintain his popularity; there are far too many variables. We'll see.

How higher your expectations in the primaries? How high were your expectations in the general election? And how high are your expectations now?

If you're talking about my expectations of Trump's popularity; when he was half way through the primaries I knew he was going to be their nominee and I was never confident of Clinton winning. But governing is different to campaigning and Trump himself is unpredictable. We likely won't see any meaningful change in his poularity for the first two years no matter what he does.