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Are Trump and Brexit "Archduke Ferdinand" moments?

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  • 14-11-2016 2:21am
    #1
    sdanseo
    Registered Users Posts: 9,233 ✭✭✭


    Interesting thoughts here, granted with the planet-sized caveat that it's the Huffington Post. Are we heading into a period of instability so bad it could trigger another global conflict in the next 4 to 8 years?

    A passage which does worry me does so because it makes quite a lot of sense:
    Brexit in the UK causes Italy or France to have a similar referendum. Le Pen wins an election in France. Europe now has a fractured EU. The EU, for all its many awful faults, has prevented a war in Europe for longer than ever before. The EU is also a major force in suppressing Putin’s military ambitions. European sanctions on Russia really hit the economy, and helped temper Russia’s attacks on Ukraine (there is a reason bad guys always want a weaker European Union). Trump wins in the US. Trump becomes isolationist, which weakens NATO. He has already said he would not automatically honor NATO commitments in the face of a Russian attack on the Baltics.

    With a fractured EU, and weakened NATO, Putin, facing an ongoing economic and social crisis in Russia, needs another foreign distraction around which to rally his people. He funds far right anti-EU activists in Latvia, who then create a reason for an uprising of the Russian Latvians in the East of the country (the EU border with Russia). Russia sends “peace keeping forces” and “aid lorries” into Latvia, as it did in Georgia, and in Ukraine. He cedes Eastern Latvia as he did Eastern Ukraine (Crimea has the same population as Latvia, by the way).

    A divided Europe, with the leaders of France, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, and others now pro-Russia, anti-EU, and funded by Putin, overrule calls for sanctions or a military response. NATO is slow to respond: Trump does not want America to be involved, and a large part of Europe is indifferent or blocking any action. Russia, seeing no real resistance to their actions, move further into Latvia, and then into Eastern Estonia and Lithuania. The Baltic States declare war on Russia and start to retaliate, as they have now been invaded so have no choice. Half of Europe sides with them, a few countries remain neutral, and a few side with Russia. Where does Turkey stand on this? How does ISIS respond to a new war in Europe? Who uses a nuclear weapon first?


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    #2
    Ted111
    Closed Accounts Posts: 990 ✭✭✭Ted111


    He was a hell of duke was Ferdinand.
    Arch would even begin to describe it.
    We lost him too soon.


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    #3
    riffmongous
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 12,629 Mod ✭✭✭✭riffmongous


    World War 2 1939-45
    World War 1 1914-18
    Austro-Prussian/ Franco Prussian 1866/71
    Napoleonic 1792-1815
    7 Years War 1756-1763
    9 Years War/Spanish Succesion 1688-1714
    30 Years War 1618-1648

    Every 30-50 years, we are well overdue a war here in Central Europe anyway. I never thought we'd see one but the general mood seems to be slowly getting worse and worse the last few years


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    #4
    Shenshen
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 9,453 Mod ✭✭✭✭Shenshen


    I think we've become too complacent. Too many people these days are taking the achievements of the EU for granted and assume that peaceful, close cooperation is the norm among nation states. Even the Brits seem to assume that once they've left the EU, not one of the advantages they had from being a member would disappear.

    I'm kind of hoping that Brexit and Trump might make a larger number of people aware again of what our parents and grandparents built here, and how much it's worth continuing and protecting.
    But then, I always believe in people's ability to see sense, and I get disappointed quite a lot because of that.


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    #5
    VinLieger
    Registered Users Posts: 17,651 ✭✭✭✭VinLieger


    Of course they could be and anyone who disagrees that they absolutely are not is simply ignorant of history. Like the article said nobody could have predicted when it happened what Ferdinand's assassination was going to lead to the only thing they knew was that things were precarious and unstable similar to right now but what was going to be the trigger was anyone's guess like it is once again now


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    #6
    mariaalice
    Registered Users Posts: 12,365 ✭✭✭✭mariaalice


    riffmongous wrote: »
    World War 2 1939-45
    World War 1 1914-18
    Austro-Prussian/ Franco Prussian 1866/71
    Napoleonic 1792-1815
    7 Years War 1756-1763
    9 Years War/Spanish Succesion 1688-1714
    30 Years War 1618-1648

    Every 30-50 years, we are well overdue a war here in Central Europe anyway. I never thought we'd see one but the general mood seems to be slowly getting worse and worse the last few years

    What about the Bosnian Wars, that was a war in Europe.

    People's imaginations are running away with them re Trump.


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    #7
    gandalf
    Registered Users Posts: 26,458 ✭✭✭✭gandalf


    We are definitely moving closer to a Archduke Ferdinand moment with the way the pieces are lining up on the board at the moment.

    What is truly scary is that nations that fought against fascism during WW2 have succumbed to it already or are well on the path to doing so.

    I can't believe that I am living in the middle of a Chinese curse!


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    #8
    SEPT 23 1989
    Registered Users Posts: 43,024 ✭✭✭✭SEPT 23 1989


    less of a chance of conflict now that Clinton II is no more


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    #9
    Wibbs
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 60,075 Mod ✭✭✭✭Wibbs


    gandalf wrote: »
    We are definitely moving closer to a Archduke Ferdinand moment with the way the pieces are lining up on the board at the moment.
    Possibly, but it's still a pretty shaky possibly.
    What is truly scary is that nations that fought against fascism during WW2 have succumbed to it already or are well on the path to doing so.
    No, they're really not, or you don't understand how fascist societies operated.

    Rejoice in the awareness of feeling stupid, for that’s how you end up learning new things. If you’re not aware you’re stupid, you probably are.



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    #10
    Annasopra
    Registered Users Posts: 40,814 ✭✭✭✭Annasopra


    Steve Bannon as Trumps chief of staff? Jews and Black people in America should be seriously worried.

    It was so much easier to blame it on Them. It was bleakly depressing to think that They were Us. If it was Them, then nothing was anyone's fault. If it was us, what did that make Me? After all, I'm one of Us. I must be. I've certainly never thought of myself as one of Them. No one ever thinks of themselves as one of Them. We're always one of Us. It's Them that do the bad things.

    Terry Pratchet



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    #11
    padd b1975
    Registered Users Posts: 10,703 ✭✭✭✭padd b1975


    Joeytheparrot wrote: »
    Steve Bannon as Trumps chief of staff? Jews and Black people in America should be seriously worried.

    What sort of racist and anti-Semitic legislation is in the pipeline?


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    #12
    ohnonotgmail
    Registered Users Posts: 40,153 ✭✭✭✭ohnonotgmail


    padd b1975 wrote: »
    What sort of racist and anti-Semitic legislation is in the pipeline?


    Time will tell. Given his history you would be a fool to be surprised by it.


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    #13
    mariaalice
    Registered Users Posts: 12,365 ✭✭✭✭mariaalice


    Joeytheparrot wrote: »
    Steve Bannon as Trumps chief of staff? Jews and Black people in America should be seriously worried.

    His oldest daughter has coveted to Judaism.


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    #14
    silverharp
    Registered Users Posts: 17,840 ✭✭✭✭silverharp


    to use the tortured "archduke Ferdinand" analogy what happened last week anyway was telling him to stay home that day and have a cup of tea...

    A belief in gender identity involves a level of faith as there is nothing tangible to prove its existence which, as something divorced from the physical body, is similar to the idea of a soul. - Colette Colfer



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    #15
    Agricola
    Registered Users Posts: 6,547 ✭✭✭Agricola


    Interesting parallel between UK and US. White elite conservatives, whining about the loss of old economic power, blame everyone who isn't white, flooding in over the border. This strikes a cord with a certain demographic of voter and the world reverses xx years in a matter of weeks.


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    #16
    conorhal
    Registered Users Posts: 6,983 ✭✭✭conorhal


    What's driving Trump\Brexit\FN\AfD\etc is a rather smart, rational recogntion by the public that globalization is stripping them of their humanity and reducing them to 'economic unit's who have seen a reduction in standard's of living as wealth is transfered to the pockets of a global elite.
    As Clinton 1.0 pointed out in the 90's, 'it's the economy stupid'.
    It isn't Farage and Trump bringing on the Trumpocalypse, it's the narrow focused, short sighted, PC left who are driving the crisis and Farage and Trump are the product of that, not the cause.
    If anybody's looking for sombody to blame you can start with those who insisted on fighting an election on Gender pronouns and sexisim as opposed to jobs and immigration.


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    #17
    Shenshen
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 9,453 Mod ✭✭✭✭Shenshen


    conorhal wrote: »
    What's driving Trump\Brexit\FN\AfD\etc is a rather smart, rational recogntion by the public that globalization is stripping them of their humanity and reducing them to 'economic unit's who have seen a reduction in standard's of living as wealth is transfered to the pockets of a global elite.
    As Clinton 1.0 pointed out in the 90's, 'it's the economy stupid'.
    It isn't Farage and Trump bringing on the Trumpocalypse, it's the narrow focused, short sighted, PC left who are driving the crisis and Farage and Trump are the product of that, not the cause.
    If anybody's looking for sombody to blame you can start with those who insisted on fighting an election on Gender pronouns and sexisim as opposed to jobs and immigration.

    While I agree with the sentiment ascribed to the sectors of the public who voted in Trump and voted for Brexit, I'm not entirely sure that you assign the blame correctly.

    The economic left is the segment in politics in favour of worker's rights, protectionism through taxes, reduced imports and they would, by definition, be anti-globalisation.
    Their main objective is raising living standards for the lower and middle classes by taxing the richer parts of society.

    Yet that is definitely not what the US voted for in the last election.


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    #18
    Wibbs
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 60,075 Mod ✭✭✭✭Wibbs


    Agricola wrote: »
    Interesting parallel between UK and US. White elite conservatives, whining about the loss of old economic power, blame everyone who isn't white, flooding in over the border.
    White poor and eroding middle class conservatives might, but the actual "elite", white or not, don't give two hoots about any "flood" across borders. Or at least not in the way you suggest. Cheaper labour either through immigrants who will work for less/dropping existing "local" workers wages to compete is something they want, not something they want to avoid. Open borders to people and their cash and global economies is a positive to their continuing and increasing wealth. Pointing to immigrants may certainly be a deflection tactic to keep them out of popular focus, but that would be about it.

    Rejoice in the awareness of feeling stupid, for that’s how you end up learning new things. If you’re not aware you’re stupid, you probably are.



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    #19
    Wibbs
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 60,075 Mod ✭✭✭✭Wibbs


    ohnonotgmail wrote: »
    Time will tell. Given his history you would be a fool to be surprised by it.
    And at this juncture a hysteric to think it's the start of the fourth reich.

    Rejoice in the awareness of feeling stupid, for that’s how you end up learning new things. If you’re not aware you’re stupid, you probably are.



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    #20
    ohnonotgmail
    Registered Users Posts: 40,153 ✭✭✭✭ohnonotgmail


    Wibbs wrote: »
    And at this juncture a hysteric to think it's the start of the fourth reich.


    like i said, time will tell.


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    #21
    Renegade Mechanic
    Registered Users Posts: 7,934 ✭✭✭Renegade Mechanic


    World war two didn't start because Hitler was taking over territory or killing Jews. In fact world leaders could not care less about that.
    Remember this saying; 'Let me issue and control a nation’s money and I care not who writes the laws.'
    Or who is in any form of power.

    Some of the first things Hitler did in territories he took control over was dismantle their central banks. There were hundreds of billions at stake and it was going to cost a hundred million lives to get them back. That's why the second world war happened. If Hitler was happy for money to be issued out of thin air at interest, he'd have been in power, killing Jews in Germany until the 80s.

    So, is anything money related happening now, that could start a war? Well look at Russia, they've been crushed under sanctions for the ladt few years now. Why?
    Is it because of the brouhaha in Ukraine? Their actions in Syria?
    No. Russia is moving rapidly towards dumping the dollar for it's oil. It will want Roubles only, and likely yuan. Making their resources much cheaper than anything stuck to the high value dollar.

    This is a direct threat to the hegemony that is the world reserve currency.
    As long as countries sell oil in dollars, countries have to buy dollars in order to buy oil. This makes demand for dollars which makes their value.
    Without it, the dollar is finished. It's a matter of survival now, that Americans crush anyone who threatens that hegemony.
    Like Saddam Hussein.
    https://www.google.ie/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/business/2003/feb/16/iraq.theeuro%253F0p19G%253De&ved=0ahUKEwiR9qStjajQAhVKDsAKHaRlChsQFggoMAA&usg=AFQjCNENKp9gmns0--f9lpn1cV5o3BhZQg
    Or Gaddafi.
    https://www.google.ie/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/cifamerica/2011/apr/21/libya-muammar-gaddafi%253F0p19G%253De&ved=0ahUKEwjEh7njjajQAhXMLsAKHeo1DrsQFghhMAQ&usg=AFQjCNH9-WtoSXOFW_zyz_nme-e2HAJhEg
    Or Assad.
    http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article11894.htm
    Seeing a pattern yet? ;)
    Good, because it's the reason many leaders have been "overthrown"...

    Russia is a much bigger, much more powerful country. It's going to take a much bigger, much more powerful war.


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    #22
    pumpkin4life
    Registered Users Posts: 1,435 ✭✭✭pumpkin4life


    Renegade Mechanic wrote: »
    World war two didn't start because Hitler was taking over territory or killing Jews. In fact world leaders could not care less about that.
    Remember this saying; 'Let me issue and control a nation’s money and I care not who writes the laws.'
    Or who is in any form of power.

    Some of the first things Hitler did in territories he took control over was dismantle their central banks. There were hundreds of billions at stake and it was going to cost a hundred million lives to get them back. That's why the second world war happened. If Hitler was happy for money to be issued out of thin air at interest, he'd have been in power, killing Jews in Germany until the 80s.

    So, is anything money related happening now, that could start a war? Well look at Russia, they've been crushed under sanctions for the ladt few years now. Why?
    Is it because of the brouhaha in Ukraine? Their actions in Syria?
    No. Russia is moving rapidly towards dumping the dollar for it's oil. It will want Roubles only, and likely yuan. Making their resources much cheaper than anything stuck to the high value dollar.

    This is a direct threat to the hegemony that is the world reserve currency.
    As long as countries sell oil in dollars, countries have to buy dollars in order to buy oil. This makes demand for dollars which makes their value.
    Without it, the dollar is finished. It's a matter of survival now, that Americans crush anyone who threatens that hegemony.
    Like Saddam Hussein.
    https://www.google.ie/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/business/2003/feb/16/iraq.theeuro%253F0p19G%253De&ved=0ahUKEwiR9qStjajQAhVKDsAKHaRlChsQFggoMAA&usg=AFQjCNENKp9gmns0--f9lpn1cV5o3BhZQg
    Or Gaddafi.
    https://www.google.ie/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/cifamerica/2011/apr/21/libya-muammar-gaddafi%253F0p19G%253De&ved=0ahUKEwjEh7njjajQAhXMLsAKHeo1DrsQFghhMAQ&usg=AFQjCNH9-WtoSXOFW_zyz_nme-e2HAJhEg
    Or Assad.
    http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article11894.htm
    Seeing a pattern yet? ;)
    Good, because it's the reason many leaders have been "overthrown"...

    Russia is a much bigger, much more powerful country. It's going to take a much bigger, much more powerful war.

    Bingo. This is also (along with the velocity of money) why Obama has been able to "print" money left right and centre with no inflationary effect. It's swallowed up in the petrodollar.


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    #23
    Saipanne
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,882 ✭✭✭Saipanne


    Hilary would have undoubtedly caused a war with Russia.


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    #24
    Renegade Mechanic
    Registered Users Posts: 7,934 ✭✭✭Renegade Mechanic


    pumpkin4life wrote: »
    Bingo. This is also (along with the velocity of money) why Obama has been able to "print" money left right and centre with no inflationary effect. It's swallowed up in the petrodollar.

    Yup, well almost, the most powerful man in the world actually has to make an appointment to be allowed to see the people printing the dollar but the point is the same.
    No matter how much of it is printed out of thin air, it's printed at interest, meaning you can print more to loan later, and the thing other countries want, like oil, they have to exchange their much more solidly backed currencies for, diluting what would be American hyperinflation into simple global inflation.
    It's going to be ugly :o


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    #25
    SterlingArcher
    Registered Users Posts: 2,767 ✭✭✭SterlingArcher


    Wibbs wrote: »
    And at this juncture a hysteric to think it's the start of the fourth reich.

    Yep calling them Nazis or kkk. Hell even Jack the ripper for the lolz. Basically try tie them to any perceived evil image.

    You can only shut down freedom of ideas and expression through labeled oppression for so long.


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    #26
    Renegade Mechanic
    Registered Users Posts: 7,934 ✭✭✭Renegade Mechanic


    Saipanne wrote: »
    Hilary would have undoubtedly caused a war with Russia.

    I have two videos for you. One is little over a minute and a half, and the other is 27 seconds. Pretty much all you need to know.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=74EvJieIqbM

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ykk8ibRhx-g


    'Trump will start ww3'....
    I mean he might, but there's at least a bloody chance, however slim, that he won't.


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    #27
    Renegade Mechanic
    Registered Users Posts: 7,934 ✭✭✭Renegade Mechanic


    Joeytheparrot wrote: »
    Steve Bannon as Trumps chief of staff? Jews and Black people in America should be seriously worried.

    Assuage your fears my friend and check this list.
    I made sure to remove the, *cough* nice things actual skinheads were saying about them through their tears...

    Michael Abboud - chief PR
    Lewis Eisenberg - Trump Victory Committee President
    Elliot Broidy - Trump Victory Committee Vice President
    Samuel Fox - Trump Victory Committee Vice President
    Jared Kushner - main advisor
    Jason Greenblatt - chief financial officer Trump Organization
    Sheldon Adelson - main lobbyst in the US
    David Friedman - Lawyer while undergoing Atlantic City failures
    Michael Abboud - chief PR
    Lewis Eisenberg - Trump Victory Committee President
    Elliot Broidy - Trump Victory Committee Vice President
    Samuel Fox - Trump Victory Committee Vice President
    Michael Cohen - Trump Organization VP
    Alan Garten - Trump Organization VP
    Lawrence Glick - Trump Organization VP
    Michael Dezer - Trump partner
    Gil Dezer - Trump partner
    Stephen Feinberg - Trump Economic Advisory Council member
    Paul Achleitner - Trump donor
    Carl Icahn - main Trump donor
    Wilbur Ross - main Trump donor
    John Paulson - main Trump donor
    Stephen Wynn - main Trump donor

    All Jewish. So relax, or do I need to make a list of Black folk too? :D


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    #28
    ohnonotgmail
    Registered Users Posts: 40,153 ✭✭✭✭ohnonotgmail


    SterlingArcher wrote: »
    Yep calling them Nazis or kkk. Hell even Jack the ripper for the lolz. Basically try tie them to any perceived evil image.

    You can only shut down freedom of ideas and expression through labeled oppression for so long.


    God forbid somebody compares the alt-right with the KKK and fascism. They are sooooo different.


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    #29
    Renegade Mechanic
    Registered Users Posts: 7,934 ✭✭✭Renegade Mechanic


    ohnonotgmail wrote: »
    God forbid somebody compares the alt-right with the KKK and fascism. They are sooooo different.

    Well how many of the "alt-right", have you seen donning white wizards hats and hanging blacks, or rounding up Jewish folk for a shower?

    Come off it, firstly remember the KKK were a militia formed by The Democrats, with the explicit purpose of terrorising black communities who aligned with Republicans in the civil war, and locating "traitor" Republicans and killing them for their "crimes"..

    Furthermore, I've said it already, I'll say it again. It would be nice to build a time machine and fire people into something like late 20s/early 30s Germany so they can actually experience for themselves a situation so desperate that something as dark as fascism can come to light.
    This? This is nothing.


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    #30
    The Backwards Man
    Closed Accounts Posts: 18,299 ✭✭✭✭The Backwards Man


    We're not even close to a Bay Of Pigs moment yet, so an Archduke Ferdinand moment is a long way off. But there's no doubting we're looking down the path, swithering.


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    #31
    _Jamie_
    Closed Accounts Posts: 603 ✭✭✭_Jamie_


    Shenshen wrote: »
    I think we've become too complacent. Too many people these days are taking the achievements of the EU for granted and assume that peaceful, close cooperation is the norm among nation states. Even the Brits seem to assume that once they've left the EU, not one of the advantages they had from being a member would disappear.

    Yeah, check out the chairman of Wetherspoons bitching about the possiblity of tariffs on transactions being imposed on Britain once they leave the EU and him claiming that EU nations will worse off than the UK if this happens. Diddums. :D He was active in the 'Leave' side. What did he expect, that the UK would leave the EU but still receive the benefit of being a member without paying into it?

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/nov/02/wetherspoon-boss-eu-leaders-brexit-talks-tim-martin


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