2016 U.S. Presidential Race Megathread Mark 2.

BoatMad · 09-11-2016 11:38AM

While nice in theory in practice that's now how the reality works; I agree that I expect things will get worse for a lot of the voters who voted for Trump/Brexit. However they will not connect their vote and the worse conditions together but will listen to the latest deflections (oh the democrats stopped us from doing A; oh this and that caused it, not our fault but vote for us and we'll fix it! etc.).

well he has both houses and the SCOTUS , hard to blame others !!!

Thomas_... · 09-11-2016 11:39AM

Jawgap wrote: »

Thomas_... wrote: »

That remains to be seen when after his inauguration he will face real politics and when he still acts the elephant in the glashouse, we will all know whether your point is right or not.

So nothing in his achievements to indicate if he'll be a good President?

Just as an aside, I thought he (as in his companies) had been through Chapter 11 twice, but it's 6 times!!! And pretty much on each occasion it was because he over-leveraged his operations......so I'm guessing that at least the national debt and deficit are in safe, if small, hands

No, nothing at all. There isn't any good to anticipate from a bully like him.

Akrasia · 09-11-2016 11:39AM

K-9 wrote: »

Any time Republicans or Trump go on about cutting costs, that means jobs.

Maybe Trump is when the penny finally drops, the light bulb moment.

Maybe people finally cop that that the last 40 years of wage stagnation ties in with the the obliteration of unions.

For a lot of these people, there is no penny to drop.

BoatMad · 09-11-2016 11:41AM

Originally Posted by K-9 View Post
Any time Republicans or Trump go on about cutting costs, that means jobs.

Maybe Trump is when the penny finally drops, the light bulb moment.

Maybe people finally cop that that the last 40 years of wage stagnation ties in with the the obliteration of unions.

Trump is not a conservative or a Republican in the conventional sense of the term. He's much closer to FDR style politics then right wing tea party politics

09-11-2016 11:42AM

Akrasia wrote: »

For a lot of these people, there is no penny to drop.

Trump only just lost the popular vote. Quantify 'a lot'?

Nody · 09-11-2016 11:45AM

BoatMad wrote: »

well he has both houses and the SCOTUS , hard to blame others !!!

It's easy; China (see Japan in the 90s) are buying out our companies and giving unfair state aid, those Mexican drug lords are poisoning our children so they can't get jobs; the illegal immigrants are lowering the quality of our schools and healthcare by taking up resources.

You can go on and find plenty of ways to find others to blame for everything even with all the powers in your hand; esp. if all you need to produce is maximum of a minute or two talking time for the news.

BorneTobyWilde · 09-11-2016 11:50AM

I guess I was right
Polls were wrong, there was a huge secret Trump vote
That rallies reflected the turnout
That it would be a landslide
He would reach out to Hillary

Akrasia · 09-11-2016 11:52AM

Deleted User wrote: »

Trump only just lost the popular vote. Quantify 'a lot'?

Well, the 42% of Americans who believe the world is only 6000 years old for a start..
http://www.gallup.com/poll/170822/believe-creationist-view-human-origins.aspx

and the 60% of republicans who still don't think humans are causing global warming
http://www.gallup.com/poll/190010/concern-global-warming-eight-year-high.aspx

There are a lot of americans who are woefully uninformed about reality.

And it's not because the information isn't accessible, it's because they are wearing blinkers, they have chosen their beliefs and no evidence will change their mind.

BorneTobyWilde · 09-11-2016 11:53AM

Some over the top democrats still saying things like he will be in oval office get a tweet he doesn't like and press the nuclear button .

Akrasia · 09-11-2016 11:54AM

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

I guess I was right
Polls were wrong, there was a huge secret Trump vote
That rallies reflected the turnout
That it would be a landslide
He would reach out to Hillary

Trump 'reached out' to the other republican nominees when he gave his victory speech after winning the primaries. A few days later he was back on form taunting them and calling them names and insulting them.

Trump is only able to act restrained when he's reading a speech that someone else wrote for him. (and even then, he sometimes goes off on wild tangents to attack someone)

BorneTobyWilde · 09-11-2016 11:58AM

Great that America is back in hands of the Americans with generations of family there, and not in hands of the millions of people who became US citizens in last 4 years. Hillary was relying on those new US citizens to tip the balance.

Akrasia · 09-11-2016 11:59AM

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Some over the top democrats still saying things like he will be in oval office get a tweet he doesn't like and press the nuclear button .

Yeah, that's ridiculous, but what is more worrying is that his terrible diplomacy skills and awful judgement might somehow cause Iran to get back onto the nuclear program, or he might provoke one side or the other in the India Pakistan dispute, or he might get into some kind of conflict with Putin or China...

Thomas_... · 09-11-2016 12:02PM

BoatMad wrote: »

Originally Posted by K-9 View Post
Any time Republicans or Trump go on about cutting costs, that means jobs.

Maybe Trump is when the penny finally drops, the light bulb moment.

Maybe people finally cop that that the last 40 years of wage stagnation ties in with the the obliteration of unions.

Trump is not a conservative or a Republican in the conventional sense of the term. He's much closer to FDR style politics then right wing tea party politics

I must have missed him talking about a "new deal" like FDR once did and more to the point, FDR wasn't a bully like Trump. Big difference between both characters and to compare FDR with Trump is rather an Insult towards FDR to me.

Thomas_... · 09-11-2016 12:06PM

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Some over the top democrats still saying things like he will be in oval office get a tweet he doesn't like and press the nuclear button .

I fear that those "over the top democrats" were not exaggerating it. We'll see how it will work when he gets chumming with Putin, his "friend" and if one likes to believe it, they both say that this "friendship" is "mutual". Well, I have no doubts that both of them have each one for themselves a very big ego.

09-11-2016 12:07PM

esteve · 09-11-2016 12:10PM

I did not like either candidate and if I had been able to vote, I would have voted for neither. I oddly found myself agreeing with a small amount of Trump s beliefs, such as his dislike of trade deals that move jobs abroad, his desire to use dialogue with Russia to repair relations. However his stance on climate change is archaic and dangerous. He wishes to scrap the agreements made at the Paris climate summit and encourage more drilling for fossil fuels.

His climate change denial is akin to those in the past who refused to accept all scientific consensus that proved the earth was round and not the centre of the universe. This for me is one of his most dangerous faults, amongst others.

AbusesToilets · 09-11-2016 12:10PM

It's almost like they forgot which ethnic group makes up the majority of voters.

Blatter · 09-11-2016 12:11PM

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

I guess I was right
Polls were wrong, there was a huge secret Trump vote
That rallies reflected the turnout
That it would be a landslide
He would reach out to Hillary

I don't think a secret Trump vote was key to the election. The polls didn't get this wrong because of incorrectly predicting which side of the fence the different demographics were on - they got it wrong because they incorrectly predicted the voter turnout of the different demographics.

Trump got a sizable increase on the young uneducated male vote, a large part of the demographic that has traditionally had a low voter turnout.

He and his campaign saw this as his path to the presidency from the very beginning. He targeted that demographic and brought them into the political circle by simplifying his messages so they could understand everything he said whilst playing on their emotions with his tone.

He made them feel relevant and they turned out to vote in greater numbers as a result. The polls failed to capture this.

He lied of course, but unfortunately that isn't important anymore,

Permabear · 09-11-2016 12:18PM

This post has been deleted.

daithi7 · 09-11-2016 12:20PM

Wooooaaa, I didn't see that coming, I have to admit.

Tbh I thought that Trump was dead in the water after the'Trump gate' video & audio, and the awful, aggressive performance in the second presidential debate.

But I was wrong, the polls were wrong, it's clear these right wing reactionaries in the US (&Uk via Brexit) are tapping into a disenfranchised, uneducated, angry majority who are obviously distrustful of authority and giving honest answers in polls.

Trump's victory to me shows that the old adage that any publicity is good publicity. If you had claimed a year ago that a multiple bankrupt like Trump, who doesn't pay any federal taxes, who got caught on camera boasting about willfully sexually assaulting women cos he's famous, and even his 3rd wife gets caught plagiarizing her speeches from the current 1st lady, would get into the White House against a well funded, hugely backed, ex 1st lady, ex foreign Secretary Clinton, you would have been labeled as certifiably mad!!

But Trump is a master media manipulator, with huge energy, independent wealth and is tapping into a huge, angry, disenfranchised regressive America and that is what won the day. Like it, or not, and I absolutely hate it, that's now the world we live in from this morning on!!

BoatMad · 09-11-2016 12:21PM

A Tyrant Named Miltiades! wrote: »

interesting , the polls just didnt see the swing states to the extent that they swung , they called most right but got the volume wrong, PA and Nevada not withstanding

Thomas_... · 09-11-2016 12:21PM

Akrasia wrote: »

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Some over the top democrats still saying things like he will be in oval office get a tweet he doesn't like and press the nuclear button .

Yeah, that's ridiculous, but what is more worrying is that his terrible diplomacy skills and awful judgement might somehow cause Iran to get back onto the nuclear program, or he might provoke one side or the other in the India Pakistan dispute, or he might get into some kind of conflict with Putin or China...

Both countries welcomed his election and Putin is the most happy in the first place. It might be some of "the big three" with USA, Russia and China dominating the world. That is why Russia and China are rather "happy" with a President Trump in the USA. But who knows, what sort of a "Doctor Strange" Trump will appear to be.

TheOven · 09-11-2016 12:22PM

Gael23 wrote: »

So many former US politicians will turn in their graves today

I would say it would be great for renewable energy but they just elected someone who goes against science.

09-11-2016 12:23PM

esteve wrote: »

I did not like either candidate and if I had been able to vote, I would have voted for neither.

I'm not referring here to you individually, since I don't know you're politics, maybe you have an equally enormous problem with Clinton.

But I cannot understand the tribal mentality of most Republicans who couldn't vote for Trump, and yet did not vote for Hillary Clinton. George W Bush and his wife Laura Bush voted for 'None of the above'. That's crazy. It was only ever going to be one or the other, and you might as well choose the least bad. A protest vote effects no change in this case, there is no such thing as a minimum turnout, it's an utter abdication of responsibility to say nothing.

I also have a big problem with all of the milennials and other young people who, because of sheer laziness and ignorance, have royally put into jeopardy their own futures and, also put at risk the stability in international and economic affairs over the next four years.

Blatter wrote: »

I don't think a secret Trump vote was key to the election. The polls didn't get this wrong because of incorrectly predicting which side of the fence the different demographics were on - they got it wrong because they incorrectly predicted the voter turnout of the different demographics.

Trump got a sizable increase on the young uneducated male vote, a large part of the demographic that has traditionally had a low voter turnout.

That's correct, but I think it's a mixture of both shy Trump supporters, and wobbly predictions based on previous voter turnout.

I think it comforts the media to say 'oh people were so embarrassed to vote Trump, they couldn't even admit it. We saw the same phenomenon with Brexit, with journalists sitting around in studios, consoling themselves that this decision is 'embarrassing'.

That's partly the case, but in reality, these outcomes are also caused by those who typically aren't roused to vote, being very much roused by a message that speaks directly and personally to them.

Amerika · 09-11-2016 12:27PM

FiveThirtyEight anyone? :cool:

Billy86 · 09-11-2016 12:28PM

Permabear wrote: »

This post had been deleted.

This election, and the fall out from it when the trump fans become dissatisfied with their own elected president, could well be the rise of third additional parties. Both the Democrats and republicans are highly fractured right now and that is likely only going to get worse for each with the fallout of the loss for the dems and the fact the Republican electorate are so split on so many things and now for the first time in years actually have to make decisions and govern. Social media etc and its ability to reach a wide audience without needing to spend too much money or have connections could also play a very, very big role in this.

The next four years is going to be very interesting in that respect.

pumpkin4life · 09-11-2016 12:30PM

Billy86 wrote: »

This election, and the fall out from it when the trump fans become dissatisfied with their own elected president, could well be the rise of third additional parties. Both the Democrats and republicans are highly fractured right now and that is likely only going to get worse for each with the fallout of the loss for the dems and the fact the Republican electorate are so split on so many things and now for the first time in years actually have to make decisions and govern. Social media etc and its ability to reach a wide audience without needing to spend too much money or have connections could also play a very, very big role in this.

The next four years is going to be very interesting in that respect.

The charity I pick is the Irish Cancer Society: https://www.cancer.ie/

Cheers.

Bass Reeves · 09-11-2016 12:30PM

Blatter wrote: »

He lied of course, but unfortunately that isn't important anymore,

What politician is not a liar. This is the really big issue. Look internally in Ireland what politician is not lying to get elected. What has happend is that ordinary Joe Sixpack is fed up with the lies from politicians. They are fed up with the pandering to the liberal section of society. Politician's have left the door open for this and Trump has walked through it.

Will he be a disaster it is hard to know. The lower middle class and ordinary workers has been squeezed for the last 20 years. It is the same in Ireland look at the last referendum nearly 40% of the people voted against it. They were branded bigots and racists. No politician stood up for them these people are waiting for a Trump. When you look at Irish politics every new party try to enter the squeezed middle it is only a matter of time before we have a ultra conservative party.

Jawgap · 09-11-2016 12:33PM

BoatMad wrote: »

I have faith in the mechanism of the presidency and the government of the US. Trump has to act within a political system.

Regan had some gubernatorial experience , but was essentially untried. He grew into the office and was generally regarded as a good president

BoatMad wrote: »

Trump is not a conservative or a Republican in the conventional sense of the term. He's much closer to FDR style politics then right wing tea party politics

From an article in the New Yorker......

In the coming days, commentators will attempt to normalize this event. They will try to soothe their readers and viewers with thoughts about the “innate wisdom” and “essential decency” of the American people. They will downplay the virulence of the nationalism displayed, the cruel decision to elevate a man who rides in a gold-plated airliner but who has staked his claim with the populist rhetoric of blood and soil.

George Orwell, the most fearless of commentators, was right to point out that public opinion is no more innately wise than humans are innately kind. People can behave foolishly, recklessly, self-destructively in the aggregate just as they can individually. Sometimes all they require is a leader of cunning, a demagogue who reads the waves of resentment and rides them to a popular victory. “The point is that the relative freedom which we enjoy depends of public opinion,” Orwell wrote in his essay “Freedom of the Park.”

“The law is no protection. Governments make laws, but whether they are carried out, and how the police behave, depends on the general temper in the country. If large numbers of people are interested in freedom of speech, there will be freedom of speech, even if the law forbids it; if public opinion is sluggish, inconvenient minorities will be persecuted, even if laws exist to protect them.”

Liberals will be admonished as smug, disconnected from suffering, as if so many Democratic voters were unacquainted with poverty, struggle, and misfortune. There is no reason to believe this palaver. There is no reason to believe that Trump and his band of associates—Chris Christie, Rudolph Giuliani, Mike Pence, and, yes, Paul Ryan—are in any mood to govern as Republicans within the traditional boundaries of decency. Trump was not elected on a platform of decency, fairness, moderation, compromise, and the rule of law; he was elected, in the main, on a platform of resentment.

09-11-2016 12:37PM

Bass Reeves wrote: »

It is the same in Ireland look at the last referendum nearly 40% of the people voted against it. They were branded bigots and racists. No politician stood up for them these people are waiting for a Trump.

Don't be daft. Anti-gay marriage is not a movement in its own right outside a referendum campaign.

Lets be honest here. The people who voted No are probably mainly rural pensioners who are easily fobbed off with free fivers in the annual Budget.

They don't have the energy or the will to get behind any sort of crackpot Trump wannabe that might spawn on these shores.

Irish society has plenty of problems to deal with. All advanced economies do. But we are a lot more cohesive than most of our neighbours. There is a tradition in Ireland of pragmatic, non-ideological, consensus-building politics.

This has sometimes been a weakness, but it does filter out the crazies.

2016 U.S. Presidential Race Megathread Mark 2.

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