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2016 U.S. Presidential Race Megathread Mark 2.

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 86,683 ✭✭✭✭Overheal


    TheDoctor wrote: »
    Assange is so full of **** its embarrassing to listen to at this stage.

    Hopefully he will just disappear again next Wed.

    He could be right, but he is definitely heavily biased making it difficult to be sure of anything.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 11,631 ✭✭✭✭Hank Scorpio


    Polo_Mint wrote: »
    Why dont the Republicans run both Trey Gowdy and Jason Chaffetz as P and VP nominees in elections?

    Probably have their hands full with other matters ;)

    I would love to see Gowdy run eventually, hard not to respect him and what he stands for.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,405 ✭✭✭Sofa Spud


    It's been a bit quiet so far today on the poll front - New Hampshire the only battle ground state reporting - showing a tie and the poll gets a B rating from Nate Silver, so looks credible enough. Let's see if Friday afternoon lives up to previous Fridays and provides some meaty new revelation that the commentariat can get stuck into over the weekend....


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,405 ✭✭✭Sofa Spud


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IC_p4gwS0Qs

    Interesting report from MSNBC - pollster that polled early voters in Florida that have already cast their vote, including postal, that has an 8 point margin for Clinton (48-40%), including 28% of registered Republicans voting for her and just 8% of Dems voting for Trump.

    3.6m early voters already - had a look online and it looks like the voting population is around 15m, so it's a statistically relevant chunk of the electorate. Interesting....


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,159 ✭✭✭mrkiscool2


    Sofa Spud wrote: »
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IC_p4gwS0Qs

    Interesting report from MSNBC - pollster that polled early voters in Florida that have already cast their vote, including postal, that has an 8 point margin for Clinton (48-40%), including 28% of registered Republicans voting for her and just 8% of Dems voting for Trump.

    3.6m early voters already - had a look online and it looks like the voting population is around 15m, so it's a statistically relevant chunk of the electorate. Interesting....
    I wouldn't trust anything MSNBC says about Clinton winning and Trump losing as far as I could throw them.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,247 ✭✭✭✭BoJack Horseman


    Sofa Spud wrote: »
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IC_p4gwS0Qs

    Interesting report from MSNBC - pollster that polled early voters in Florida that have already cast their vote, including postal, that has an 8 point margin for Clinton (48-40%), including 28% of registered Republicans voting for her and just 8% of Dems voting for Trump.

    3.6m early voters already - had a look online and it looks like the voting population is around 15m, so it's a statistically relevant chunk of the electorate. Interesting....

    Why on earth are the exit polls released before the polls closed?

    All this does is imply that any Floridians thinking of voting for Trump next week are wasting their time cos Hilary has it won.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,781 ✭✭✭✭Inquitus


    Why on earth are the exit polls released before the polls closed?

    All this does is imply that any Floridians thinking of voting for Trump next week are wasting their time cos Hilary has it won.

    Or Hillary voters don't bother standing in line as she has already won, cuts both ways!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,405 ✭✭✭Sofa Spud


    Why on earth are the exit polls released before the polls closed?

    All this does is imply that any Floridians thinking of voting for Trump next week are wasting their time cos Hilary has it won.

    You will even see some exit polls on election day before the polls are closed... different system


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,980 ✭✭✭TheDoctor


    What are the reason(s) that New Hampshire is less likely to vote Dem than all the states that surround it?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,644 ✭✭✭✭Zubeneschamali


    All this does is imply that any Floridians thinking of voting for Trump next week are wasting their time cos Hilary has it won.

    They have heard this before, since Trump already told them the election is rigged as prep for losing.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 38,270 ✭✭✭✭BorneTobyWilde


    Sofa Spud wrote: »
    It's been a bit quiet so far today on the poll front - New Hampshire the only battle ground state reporting - showing a tie and the poll gets a B rating from Nate Silver, so looks credible enough. Let's see if Friday afternoon lives up to previous Fridays and provides some meaty new revelation that the commentariat can get stuck into over the weekend....

    Like Trump punching a baby. Trump has looked solid last 2 weeks.
    He has head down and concentrating on winning. Hillary is brewing something no doubt, how low will she go is question.


    h4okq5M.gif


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 86,683 ✭✭✭✭Overheal


    TheDoctor wrote: »
    What are the reason(s) that New Hampshire is less likely to vote Dem than all the states that surround it?

    In the past, New Hampshire has often voted Republican. Between 1856 and 1988, New Hampshire cast its electoral votes for the Democratic presidential ticket six times: Woodrow Wilson (twice), Franklin D. Roosevelt (three times), and Lyndon B. Johnson (once).

    Beginning in 1992, New Hampshire became a swing state in both national and local elections. The state supported Democrats Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996, John Kerry in 2004, and Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012. It was the only state in the country to switch from supporting Republican George W. Bush in the 2000 election to supporting his Democratic challenger in the 2004 election, when John Kerry, a senator from neighboring Massachusetts, won the state.

    The Democrats dominated elections in New Hampshire in 2006 and 2008. In 2006, Democrats won both congressional seats (electing Carol Shea-Porter in the 1st district and Paul Hodes in the 2nd district), re-elected Governor John Lynch, and gained a majority on the Executive Council and in both houses of the legislature for the first time since 1911. Democrats had not held both the legislature and the governorship since 1874.[60] Neither U.S. Senate seat was up for a vote in 2006. In 2008, Democrats retained their majorities, governorship, and Congressional seats; and former governor Jeanne Shaheen defeated incumbent Republican John E. Sununu for the U.S. Senate in a rematch of the 2002 contest.

    The 2008 elections resulted in women holding a majority, 13 of the 24 seats, in the New Hampshire Senate, a first for any legislative body in the United States.[61]

    In the 2010 midterm elections, Republicans made historic gains in New Hampshire, capturing veto-proof majorities in the state legislature, taking all five seats in the Executive Council, electing a new U.S. senator, Kelly Ayotte, winning both U.S. House seats, and reducing the margin of victory of incumbent Governor John Lynch compared to his 2006 and 2008 landslide wins.

    In the 2012 state legislative elections, Democrats took back the New Hampshire House of Representatives and narrowed the Republican majority in the New Hampshire Senate to 13-11.[62] In 2012, New Hampshire became the first state in U.S. history to elect an all-female federal delegation: Democratic Congresswomen Carol Shea-Porter of Congressional District 1 and Ann McLane Kuster of Congressional District 2 will accompany U.S. Senators Jeanne Shaheen and Kelly Ayotte in 2013. Further, the state elected its second female governor: Democrat Maggie Hassan.

    In the 2014 elections, Republicans retook the New Hampshire House of Representatives with a 239-160 majority and expanded their majority in the New Hampshire Senate to 14 of the Senate's 24 seats. On the national level, incumbent Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen defeated her Republican challenger, Scott Brown. New Hampshire also elected Frank Guinta (R) for its First Congressional District representative and Ann Kuster (D) for its Second Congressional District representative.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Hampshire#Politics


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,405 ✭✭✭Sofa Spud


    TheDoctor wrote: »
    What are the reason(s) that New Hampshire is less likely to vote Dem than all the states that surround it?

    Not sure, but possibly a combination of being a bit more 'traditional' manufacturing based than the states surrounding them, so impacted more by globalisation and therefore more open to Trump's America First spiel and they have a even split of Dems/Republicans registered, so more likely to swing than other states.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 86,683 ✭✭✭✭Overheal


    Like Trump punching a baby. Trump has looked solid last 2 weeks.
    He has head down and concentrating on winning. Hillary is brewing something no doubt, how low will she go is question.

    Trump is sticking closely to script since he started swinging back in the polls. As soon as the Comey letter hit (apparently they had prior knowledge of it) Trump kept his mouth shut with regard to anything incendiary, knowing from many past instances it had done him zero good.

    http://www.mediaite.com/online/trump-cools-himself-down-at-rally-stay-on-point-donald-stay-on-point/

    As he spoke in Florida, he said, “We’ve gotta be nice and cool. Nice and cool. Stay on point, Donald. Stay on point.”

    The crowd cheered as he continued, “No sidetracks, Donald. Nice and easy.”

    Given how the polls have swung recently, they may be drilling this one into his head.


    And someone seems to have taken over his Twitter account as he doesn't seem to be posting himself in it that often in the last few days.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,159 ✭✭✭mrkiscool2


    TheDoctor wrote: »
    What are the reason(s) that New Hampshire is less likely to vote Dem than all the states that surround it?
    In all but one election in the last 20 years they have voted for the winner. It is a good indicator of how the election will go nationally usually and is often used by non-US media to show how the election is going.

    I didn't answer the actually question because someone already has done so very well!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,366 ✭✭✭✭aloyisious


    Overheal wrote: »
    Trump is sticking closely to script since he started swinging back in the polls. As soon as the Comey letter hit (apparently they had prior knowledge of it) Trump kept his mouth shut with regard to anything incendiary, knowing from many past instances it had done him zero good.

    http://www.mediaite.com/online/trump-cools-himself-down-at-rally-stay-on-point-donald-stay-on-point/

    As he spoke in Florida, he said, “We’ve gotta be nice and cool. Nice and cool. Stay on point, Donald. Stay on point.”

    The crowd cheered as he continued, “No sidetracks, Donald. Nice and easy.”

    Given how the polls have swung recently, they may be drilling this one into his head.


    And someone seems to have taken over his Twitter account as he doesn't seem to be posting himself in it that often in the last few days.

    I'd hazard a guess the missus is running the show with advice from seasoned people. She certainly seems unshakable.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 86,683 ✭✭✭✭Overheal


    aloyisious wrote: »
    I'd hazard a guess the missus is running the show with advice from seasoned people. She certainly seems unshakable.

    Melania? Somehow I doubt it. She can't even write a speech.. she can't even ad-lib an interview! Take a look,

    https://twitter.com/TheDailyShow/status/788741697194917892?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw


  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 23,018 Mod ✭✭✭✭Brian?


    mrkiscool2 wrote: »
    I wouldn't trust anything MSNBC says about Clinton winning and Trump losing as far as I could throw them.

    Have a think about your bias here for a second. If MSNBC were reporting in an effort to help Hillary they would say nothing. Reporting a lead like this will lower the turnout of Clinton voters.

    they/them/theirs


    The more you can increase fear of drugs and crime, welfare mothers, immigrants and aliens, the more you control all of the people.

    Noam Chomsky



  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,950 ✭✭✭B0jangles


    I don't think this story has been posted before, and after all that has come out I doubt it'll influence anyone very much but even so...

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-boasts-of-his-philanthropy-but-his-giving-falls-short-of-his-words/2016/10/29/b3c03106-9ac7-11e6-a0ed-ab0774c1eaa5_story.html
    In the fall of 1996, a charity called the Association to Benefit Children held a ribbon-cutting in Manhattan for a new nursery school serving children with AIDS. The bold-faced names took seats up front.

    There was then-Mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani (R) and former mayor David Dinkins (D). TV stars Frank and Kathie Lee Gifford, who were major donors. And there was a seat saved for Steven Fisher, a developer who had given generously to build the nursery.

    Then, all of a sudden, there was Donald Trump.

    “Nobody knew he was coming,” said Abigail Disney, another donor sitting on the dais. “There’s this kind of ruckus at the door, and I don’t know what was going on, and in comes Donald Trump. [He] just gets up on the podium and sits down.”

    Trump was not a major donor. He was not a donor, period. He’d never given a dollar to the nursery or the Association to Benefit Children, according to Gretchen Buchenholz, the charity’s executive director then and now.

    But now he was sitting in Fisher’s seat, next to Giuliani.

    “Frank Gifford turned to me and said, ‘Why is he here?’ ” Buchenholz recalled recently. By then, the ceremony had begun. There was nothing to do.

    “Just sing past it,” she recalled Gifford telling her.

    So they warbled into the first song on the program, “This Little Light of Mine,” alongside Trump and a chorus of children — with a photographer snapping photos, and Trump looking for all the world like an honored donor to the cause.

    Afterward, Disney and Buchenholz recalled, Trump left without offering an explanation. Or a donation. Fisher was stuck in the audience. The charity spent months trying to repair its relationship with him.

    “I mean, what’s wrong with you, man?” Disney recalled thinking of Trump, when it was over.

    He quite literally gatecrashed a charity event for kids with HIV to get himself some media attention and didn't even bother to make a donation.

    Donald Trump is a despicable human being.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,972 ✭✭✭captbarnacles


    Polls and markets that showed an increase of a support for Trump have drifted back to towards Clinton again. Probably as people realised there was nothing behind the latest 'email scandal'.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,950 ✭✭✭B0jangles


    Oh and Hey, Rudy Giuliani confirmed on TV that the Trump campaign knew about Comey's announcement days or even weeks before it happened.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/rudy-giuliani-fbi-clinton-emails_us_581c9e3fe4b0e80b02c93d6b?ij36pfg576k0c6jemi

    Rudy Giuliani said Friday that he knew the FBI planned to review more emails tied to Hillary Clinton before a public announcement about the investigation last week, confirming that the agency leaked information to Donald Trump’s presidential campaign.

    The former New York City mayor and Trump surrogate has recently dropped a series of hints that he knew in advance that the FBI planned to look at emails potentially connected to Clinton’s private server. The agency discovered the messages while investigating former Rep. Anthony Weiner (D-N.Y.) for allegedly sexting with a minor. (Weiner’s estranged wife, Huma Abedin, is a top aide to Clinton.)

    Giuliani has bragged about his close ties to the FBI for months, mentioning in interviews that “outraged FBI agents” have told him they’re frustrated by how the Clinton investigation was handled. And two days before FBI Director James Comey announced that the agency was reviewing the newly uncovered emails, Giuliani teased that Trump’s campaign had “a couple of surprises left.”

    “You’ll see, and I think it will be enormously effective,” he said in an interview with Fox News.

    All of this has led to suspicion that someone in the FBI is leaking information to Giuliani and the Trump campaign. The Daily Beast’s Wayne Barrett explored those suspicions on Thursday, detailing how Giuliani’s ties to the agency date back to his days as a U.S. attorney in the 1980s.

    Giuliani confirmed that notion Friday during an appearance on “Fox & Friends.”

    “I did nothing to get it out, I had no role in it,” he said. “Did I hear about it? You’re darn right I heard about it, and I can’t even repeat the language that I heard from the former FBI agents.”


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,950 ✭✭✭B0jangles


    Amerika wrote: »
    Not making it up. I guess at this point it boils down to the credibility of the sources in the link. But observing Bret Baier and his level of integrity over many years, I have come to believe he wouldn’t have put it out there unless he found the source to be incredibly credible.

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2016/11/02/fbi_sources_tell_fox_news_indictment_likely_in_clinton_foundation_case.html


    FYI Brett Baier has said he was wrong and mistaken about that:

    https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/794587593291821056


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,311 ✭✭✭✭alastair


    B0jangles wrote: »
    Oh and Hey, Rudy Giuliani confirmed on TV that the Trump campaign knew about Comey's announcement days or even weeks before it happened.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/rudy-giuliani-fbi-clinton-emails_us_581c9e3fe4b0e80b02c93d6b?ij36pfg576k0c6jemi

    I'm betting Giuliani knew nothing, and is just bull****ting on this. He's a match for Trump on the blowhard front.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,405 ✭✭✭Sofa Spud


    B0jangles wrote: »
    FYI Brett Baier has said he was wrong and mistaken about that:

    https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/794587593291821056

    In fairness to him, that was a pretty clear retraction, to the point where you feel it was his decision to make it and not an editorial direction to do so...


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,159 ✭✭✭mrkiscool2


    Brian? wrote: »
    Have a think about your bias here for a second. If MSNBC were reporting in an effort to help Hillary they would say nothing. Reporting a lead like this will lower the turnout of Clinton voters.
    I've never thought as MSNBC being either rational or intelligent enough to even consider thinking this would affect Hillary. From the stuff I have seen involving them through this whole election it has been pro-Hillary, anti-Trump and they have taken great delight in every vile thing Trump said and did. So it doesn't surprise me they have done this really!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,176 ✭✭✭✭PopePalpatine


    Polls and markets that showed an increase of a support for Trump have drifted back to towards Clinton again. Probably as people realised there was nothing behind the latest 'email scandal'.

    Yep, he was as short as 7/4 some time yesterday, but has since drifted as far as 3/1. Have a look here.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,171 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    Here is an in depth and very lucid analysis of the whole email saga:
    http://www.cnbc.com/2016/11/04/the-real-clinton-email-scandal-is-that-a-bs-story-has-dominated-the-campaign-commentary.html

    I find it hard to believe that this topic has taken precedence over all other topics by a wide margin.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,412 ✭✭✭blackcard


    It will be the end of the political career for whoever loses next week. Trump would probably go back to his business interests, maybe set up a tv station and continue to haunt Hilary. If Hilary loses, you would think that she will not be pursued by the FBI as it may be felt that she is a dead duck, hard to see any role for her in the future. Ironically, a victory for either may be the worst thing that could happen for themselves and their parties.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 33,775 ✭✭✭✭RobertKK


    CNN updated their electoral map to put Hillary at 268 electoral votes as New Hampshire was moved from lean Democrat to toss up.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,485 ✭✭✭✭rossie1977


    Chris Christies aides found guilty on all counts regarding the bridgegate scandal http://edition.cnn.com/2016/11/04/politics/bridgegate-case-verdict-reached/index.html

    While Christie has taken a backseat as being trumps number 2 since the appointment of pence he is still on the campaign trail for trump today


This discussion has been closed.
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