2016 U.S. Presidential Race Megathread Mark 2.

marienbad · 03-11-2016 06:34PM

Amerika wrote: »

They might get control of the Senate, but I wouldn’t be counting my chickens as of yet. Right now it is forecasted at being 46 Republicans and 46 Democrats with 8 spots a toss up. Of those 8 spots, I think Republicans will get 5 and Democrats will get 3.

I notice you omit the House elections ?

mrkiscool2 · 03-11-2016 06:39PM

Lirange wrote: »

Right now worst case scenario has Clinton winning 273-265. In that event she loses Florida, North Carolina, and Nevada but still wins. If she loses one of Pennsylvania, Colorado, or Virginia all bets are off. But she's consistently been ahead in these states and there is a little more of a cushion to withstand the Donald's ComeyClown bump.

New Hampshire is getting closer. Again, in the last week Trump has gone from around 15% to around 35%. It could be too little too late for him to win, but if he takes NH, along with Nevada (he is going to take Florida and North Carolina) he wins the election.

Sofa Spud · 03-11-2016 06:43PM

mrkiscool2 wrote: »

New Hampshire is getting closer. Again, in the last week Trump has gone from around 15% to around 35%. It could be too little too late for him to win, but if he takes NH, along with Nevada (he is going to take Florida and North Carolina) he wins the election.

Agreed - and the scary bit is that if you look at the polls that are being released, quite a few of them were taken in a time period that spans before and after last Friday's intervention by Comey, so the latest email stuff is not fully baked into the numbers coming out yesterday and today - it's gonna be tense...

Amerika · 03-11-2016 06:45PM

marienbad wrote: »

I notice you omit the House elections ?

You are correct. Give the lady a cigar. The Republicans will keep control of the House. And the House is affected by gerrymandering. But the House is only 1/2 of Congress, and effectively 1/6 of the power of the three branches of government. And gerrymandering is limited to populations, and all the population does get balanced representation. Doesn’t it make sense to draw a map where a representative’s views supports the majority of the population he/she represents? My district is not gerrymandered well, and we unfortunately have almost a 50/50 split between D’s and R’s. We are represented by a RINO. Ineffective, IMO, because he seems to want to legislate by popularity and who he can get the most votes from in a divided area. Nobody is happy with him from either party, but he just keeps winning. I didn't vote for him in the primary, but will in the general election. I might have voted for the Democrat this time because of what he claims he'll do, but after looking at his track record all too often show his actions run 180 degrees from his current words.

mrkiscool2 · 03-11-2016 06:47PM

Sofa Spud wrote: »

Agreed - and the scary bit is that if you look at the polls that are being released, quite a few of them were taken in a time period that spans before and after last Friday's intervention by Comey, so the latest email stuff is not fully baked into the numbers coming out yesterday and today - it's gonna be tense...

Yeah, it's the reason that the band is so large on the fivethirtyeight swing state bit. Larger the bar, the more uncertain they are. NH has such poor polling (something they acknowledge on the site) that they can't even make an accurate call. It's mad that Trump was dead and buried two weeks ago and he might win it now. Either way, the American public lose!

Amerika · 03-11-2016 06:52PM

Sofa Spud wrote: »

Agreed - and the scary bit is that if you look at the polls that are being released, quite a few of them were taken in a time period that spans before and after last Friday's intervention by Comey, so the latest email stuff is not fully baked into the numbers coming out yesterday and today - it's gonna be tense...

Even though Trump might win the popular vote, I still don't see a path for him getting over 265 of the EC. It would take a miracle to do so, and I don't think there is enough time before the election to change it.

B0jangles · 03-11-2016 06:59PM

I've been hearing from a couple of people who work in polling that very few decent ones are coming out at this point because a good one costs in the hundreds of thousands to conduct and noone wants to drop that kind of money this late in the game.

mrkiscool2 · 03-11-2016 07:00PM

Amerika wrote: »

Even though Trump might win the popular vote, I still don't see a path for him getting over 265 of the EC. It would take a miracle to do so, and I don't think there is enough time before the election to change it.

He is currently projected for 266 if he takes Nevada (which is still a toss-up to be honest). NH would push him to 270 and hence the win.

Sofa Spud · 03-11-2016 07:14PM

B0jangles wrote: »

I've been hearing from a couple of people who work in polling that very few decent ones are coming out at this point because a good one costs in the hundreds of thousands to conduct and noone wants to drop that kind of money this late in the game.

Interesting point - if you click on a state on 538 map (http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/florida/ ) and then scroll down and sort the polls by date at look at the grade rating Nate Silver has given each poll, your point is clearly backed up - the latest tend to be more C's than A's....

blackcard · 03-11-2016 07:44PM

Melania Trump is not the best at public speaking

RobertKK · 03-11-2016 07:54PM

I think Trump will win this barring any more scandal.

I can see him winning Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, Nevada, Utah and Arizona. Then flip somewhere like New Hampshire which would give a tie, or somewhere like Colorado or as recent activity has shown with both the Clinton and Trump camps campaigning in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan, and with Clinton having started TV ads there again, they are also back in play.
States the Clintons thought they had wrapped up are showing trends to Trump, the thing is will the momentum be halted or will it continue.

Kelly Ayotte looks like winning the senate seat in New Hampshire and while she doesn't like either Trump or Clinton, I think she could drag Trump to a win New Hampshire.
That would put Trump and Clinton at 269 each, if Trump wins Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Nevada, think Trump wins Arizona relatively easily in the end.

The signs are not good for Clinton, and election day cannot come soon enough for her.

BoJack Horseman · 03-11-2016 08:13PM

RobertKK wrote: »

I can see him winning Florida....

Based on what Robert?

The latest 4-way poll in Fl today gives Hillary a 4pt lead.

Christy42 · 03-11-2016 08:23PM

Amerika wrote: »

Even though Trump might win the popular vote, I still don't see a path for him getting over 265 of the EC. It would take a miracle to do so, and I don't think there is enough time before the election to change it.

Trump seems more likely to win without getting the popular vote than Clinton right now (obviously Clinton is more likely to win and get the popular vote but you get the point). This is largely because of Clinton's gains in currently pointless states like Texas. Running Texas closer than Democrats have tended to in recent years is useless to her (might help Democrats in future years though) in terms of winning the presidency but increases the amount of the popular vote she gains.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-trump-could-win-the-white-house-while-losing-the-popular-vote/

Slightly out of date but I think it still applies.

alastair · 03-11-2016 08:27PM

Amerika wrote: »

You're wrong about the anger. I'm in a small group plan and it went up over 30%. Reality sucks! So you say 75% of ObamaCare purchasers were subsidised. The ObamaCare plans here are cost prohibited even with being subsidised. The extremely high deductibles and out-of-pocket costs are causing people not to go doctors unless something it is a minor doctors visit or something extremely costly. Here's what people remember... ObamaCare was guaranteed to drive down insurance costs and not cost the taxpayer one thin dime. Both lies. And Hillary wants to continue this boondoggle of a mess?

Is your group plan under the auspices of the AMA marketplace? Are you in receipt of a subsidy? Because if so, with an average increase of 7% on small group schemes in PA, you would appear to be paying an increase well over the norm, and should lobby your scheme to move policy.

alastair · 03-11-2016 08:29PM

Amerika wrote: »

No republican voted for it. Nice try, but no cigar. Democrats own ObamaCare, lock, stock and barrel. And I take it you are alluding to RommeyCare. The only chance that had to succeed was because Massachusetts was one of the most affluent states in the nation and because a very large percentage of the population already had employer provided insurance. And it failed anyway. Anyone with any common sense would have know it couldn’t work for the rest of the nation.

Except it is working. On many measures it's very successful.
https://aspe.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/pdf/212721/2017MarketplaceLandscapeBrief.pdf

Iceboy · 03-11-2016 08:34PM

We have witnessed the largest, most elaborate political coverup in history. Obama's Department of Justice, the mass media, the DNC and Hillary Clinton have almost succeeded, by attacking Trump. Their defense, was to go on offense and they flooded the media, with claims of violence, found to be planned and instigated by paid Team Hillary goons, who even rehearsed before hand. Their offense was all staged and fake. Hillary is the most corrupt, dishonest politician to ever run for office.

Overheal · 03-11-2016 08:38PM

5 more days of this ****...

walshyn93 · 03-11-2016 08:38PM

B0jangles wrote: »

If you don't like the source I linked, all you have to do is check the twitter account mentioned:

https://twitter.com/FBIRecordsVault

It is as described in the article, it was dormant for more than a year then popped back into action on the 30th october with a puff piece about Fred Trump (describes him in the tweet as a 'philanthropist' but leaves out his widely documented links with the KKK.)

Given everything else that has come from the FBI in the last month it is very hard to believe that that was just a coincidence.

I know the story around the twitter account but that's no proof of an investigation. The reason the twitter account released the info online is because FBI policy is to release online after 3 FOI act request have been made.

The same thing happened with Trumps father discrimination suit a few weeks ago and no investigation was launched then.

alastair · 03-11-2016 08:40PM

Amerika wrote: »

You are correct. Give the lady a cigar. The Republicans will keep control of the House. And the House is affected by gerrymandering. But the House is only 1/2 of Congress, and effectively 1/6 of the power of the three branches of government. And gerrymandering is limited to populations, and all the population does get balanced representation. Doesn’t it make sense to draw a map where a representative’s views supports the majority of the population he/she represents? My district is not gerrymandered well, and we unfortunately have almost a 50/50 split between D’s and R’s. We are represented by a RINO. Ineffective, IMO, because he seems to want to legislate by popularity and who he can get the most votes from in a divided area. Nobody is happy with him from either party, but he just keeps winning. I didn't vote for him in the primary, but will in the general election. I might have voted for the Democrat this time because of what he claims he'll do, but after looking at his track record all too often show his actions run 180 degrees from his current words.

Sounds like your district is producing the sort of pragmatic bipartisan repesentatives that are so needed to break the party-first logjam that inhibits your country.

Iceboy · 03-11-2016 08:41PM

Overheal wrote: »

5 more days of this ****...

drain_the_swamp_ben_garrison.jpg?w=640&h=461

Overheal · 03-11-2016 08:46PM

Iceboy wrote: »

Yes 5 more days of that ****.

I won't be convinced the GOP has recovered as a party until someone sucker punches Mitch McConnel in the face.

alastair · 03-11-2016 08:47PM

Iceboy wrote: »

We have witnessed the largest, most elaborate political coverup in history. Obama's Department of Justice, the mass media, the DNC and Hillary Clinton have almost succeeded, by attacking Trump. Their defense, was to go on offense and they flooded the media, with claims of violence, found to be planned and instigated by paid Team Hillary goons, who even rehearsed before hand. Their offense was all staged and fake. Hillary is the most corrupt, dishonest politician to ever run for office.

The DoJ have had no dealings with Trump afaik?
The media have certainly elevated and dropped Trump's standing - entirely on the back of Trump's actions and rhetoric.
The DNC and Hillary Clinton are supposed to attack Trump. He's made that job very easy.
The violence at Trump rally's is entirely down to Trump supporters. No-one made them engage in violent acts, and they were encouraged along by a certain Donald Trump.
Hillary Clinton has had precisely zero corruption charges over her political career.

PopePalpatine · 03-11-2016 08:48PM

Nothing drains a swamp better than a fraudster and a tax dodger. :rolleyes:

TheOven · 03-11-2016 08:48PM

Overheal wrote: »

Yes 5 more days of that ****.

With any luck we'll end up in a situation where everyone just denies ever supporting him. That or more death threats for people who accuse others of rape.

Overheal · 03-11-2016 08:49PM

PopePalpatine wrote: »

Nothing drains a swamp better than a fraudster and a tax dodger. :rolleyes:

I really don't get this narrative where Trump is a folk hero; just a modest, down to earth sleazy mogul who waited 70 years on this Earth to decide it was time to do something for anyone other than himself.

Brian? · 03-11-2016 08:50PM

So a source within the FBI says Hillary is likely to be indicted, in relation to the Clinton foundation. Except that it's way beyond the scope of the FBI to indict anyone, as I have pointed out many times!

Now the man who broke the "story" is backing off:

http://www.rawstory.com/2016/11/oops-fox-anchor-retracts-claim-of-likely-clinton-indictment-after-conservatives-sites-go-wild/

It's typical of the campaign so far. Innuendo and dirt slinging on both sides. It's probably done it's damage though.

I'm genuinely sick of this at this stage.

aloyisious · 03-11-2016 08:54PM

mrkiscool2 wrote: »

New Hampshire is getting closer. Again, in the last week Trump has gone from around 15% to around 35%. It could be too little too late for him to win, but if he takes NH, along with Nevada (he is going to take Florida and North Carolina) he wins the election.

This election campaign has been so F***ed up that NH, normally the one state mentioned on this side of the Atlantic as the barometer on how votings going, has not been mentioned at all. Nice to hear it as an indicator, though not in the way desired.

Brian? · 03-11-2016 08:54PM

Overheal wrote: »

I really don't get this narrative where Trump is a folk hero; just a modest, down to earth sleazy mogul who waited 70 years on this Earth to decide it was time to do something for anyone other than himself.

Trump the billionaire every man.

alastair · 03-11-2016 08:55PM

Brian? wrote: »

So a source within the FBI says Hillary is likely to be indicted, in relation to the Clinton foundation. Except that it's way beyond the scope of the FBI to indict anyone, as I have pointed out many times!

Now the man who broke the "story" is backing off:

http://www.rawstory.com/2016/11/oops-fox-anchor-retracts-claim-of-likely-clinton-indictment-after-conservatives-sites-go-wild/

It's probably done it's damage though.

Maybe himself and Lou Dobbs should get together to compare notes on who's the better bull****ter. Thing is - Fox has cried wolf a little too often and it's really only the gullible base who pay any credence to this stuff any more.

Iceboy · 03-11-2016 09:10PM

Overheal wrote: »

I really don't get this narrative where Trump is a folk hero; just a modest, down to earth sleazy mogul who waited 70 years on this Earth to decide it was time to do something for anyone other than himself.

Trump has been in the media spotlight for 40years and has almost never flip flopped on his political beliefs. During that time all news articles about him were positive. But the moment he runs for presidency....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OCabT_O0YSM

2016 U.S. Presidential Race Megathread Mark 2.

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