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2016 U.S. Presidential Race Megathread Mark 2.

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Comments

  • #5642
    Amerika
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,175 ✭✭✭Amerika


    Black Swan wrote: »
    The nebulous FBI director statement about emails a few days ago may or may have been a factor should it have occurred before contest deadline, so who knows for sure? The same could be said for the 7 October 2016 Trump sexual assault tape, and if or not this may have been cause to influence this high school and college student presidential forecasting contest. We can both guess all we like from our armchairs, but without more information from the American Statistical Association regarding this contest they hosted, we don't really know. Maybe someone can research the ASA contest details to clarify, but I don't have time at the moment.

    One thing we tend to forget is Comey told Congress he would provide updates if any new information was obtained. That seems to be what he did.


  • #5643
    Black Swan
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 47,769 CMod ✭✭✭✭Black Swan


    Finnley Quaint Wineglass wrote: »
    Asking '450 people' out of 330million in a sponsored survey and seeking correlation, is largely meaningless.
    First of all, the high school and college student exercise was a forecasting contest, NOT a "survey" hosted by the American Statistical Association, so your "450 people out of 330 million" was comparing apples with rocks. To toss out the 450 forecasts would essentially be the same as to toss out forecasts by other sources like FiveThirtyEight, etc., although the level of sophistication for most student forecasts methinks would fall way, way below Nate Silver's forecasts. But who knows for sure, as there may have been a few of those high school and college students that went all out in this American Statistical Association contest and had brilliant forecasting models in an attempt to win the ASA contest. Who knows? You don't know, and I don't know for sure. Once again, maybe someone could take time to research in depth the ASA forecasting contest to clarify what questions may be raised as to the merits that may or may not exist?


  • #5644
    johnp001
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 658 ✭✭✭johnp001


    Amerika wrote: »
    One thing we tend to forget is Comey told Congress he would provide updates if any new information was obtained. That seems to be what he did.

    Exactly as he explained to his staff on Friday
    Read Comey’s letter to FBI employees below.

    To all:

    This morning I sent a letter to Congress in connection with the Secretary Clinton email investigation. Yesterday, the investigative team briefed me on their recommendation with respect to seeking access to emails that have recently been found in an unrelated case. Because those emails appear to be pertinent to our investigation, I agreed that we should take appropriate steps to obtain and review them.

    Of course, we don’t ordinarily tell Congress about ongoing investigations, but here I feel an obligation to do so given that I testified repeatedly in recent months that our investigation was completed. I also think it would be misleading to the American people were we not to supplement the record. At the same time, however, given that we don’t know the significance of this newly discovered collection of emails, I don’t want to create a misleading impression. In trying to strike that balance, in a brief letter and in the middle of an election season, there is significant risk of being misunderstood, but I wanted you to hear directly from me about it.

    Jim Comey

    This video shows one of the occasions on which Comey testified and the resistance already demonstrated to re-opening the investigation


    As Comey stated in July "We would certainly look at any new and substantial information.” and he did not seem to consider any of the scenarios posited by Rep. Smith in this video as fitting that category it is fair to surmise that the Abedin/Weiner information must have been newer and/or more substantial than what Smith describes in the video.


  • #5645
    Black Swan
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 47,769 CMod ✭✭✭✭Black Swan


    Amerika wrote: »
    Did those college students buy their own Porsches, Mercedes, and BMWs? Or did they get them from mommy and daddy?
    To answer these questions Amerika, perhaps you could do a survey of the 44,000 USC students enrolled in the 2016-2017 academic year to see if there are relationships between who paid for their cars, whom their parents are voting for (Trump or Clinton), and whom the students are voting for, and maybe throw in a few more variable like party or lack of, and report your findings here?


  • #5646
    Timberrrrrrrr
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,955 ✭✭✭✭Timberrrrrrrr


    Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »
    The increase in black voters went up in 2008 and 2012 because a certain amount of black people voted for Obama because he was black, nothing else.

    Its like me voting for McCain or Romney because he was white.

    That's not what i asked

    How is not voting for someone considered racist?

    You made the claim of racism and I would like you to explain please how choosing not to vote someone is considered racism and where you get your information from that black people won't vote because the candidates are white?


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  • #5647
    4068ac1elhodqr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,577 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    Yes BlackSwan I'd dismiss that 'sponsored' 'contest' of '450' outright, in terms of predictive analysis.
    Polls, are more often than not 'tools of influence' and often paid for. Media coverage is also usually a one-sided affair.

    On the other hand real-world market data is much more relevant. Money walks and talk talks.

    e.g. Live Gold prices are up again to pre-Oct prices. along with MXN (fx). Look at The S&P500, EWW flow, BONDs or just global stocks.
    Even bookie prices are calling it very close, and not '97%'.




    Another separate factor is what will 'Mr Lassange' data-dump over the next few days???


  • #5648
    Amerika
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,175 ✭✭✭Amerika


    Black Swan wrote: »
    To answer these questions Amerika, perhaps you could do a survey of the 44,000 USC students enrolled in the 2016-2017 academic year to see if there are relationships between who paid for their cars, whom their parents are voting for (Trump or Clinton), and whom the students are voting for, and maybe throw in a few more variable like party or lack of, and report your findings here?

    I'll do that in my spare time (have I ever mentioned the fact that there is 3,000 miles between me and you and your katana is quite comforting at times? :)). Do you know where I can get a $5 million grant in order to get a start on it? :P


    Seriously though... The point I am trying to make is the relationship of a college student’s financial status is more a factor of their parents situation rather than the student themselves.


  • #5649
    Black Swan
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 47,769 CMod ✭✭✭✭Black Swan


    Finnley Quaint Wineglass wrote: »
    On the other hand real-world market data is much more relevant. Money walks and talk talks.
    I've already briefly commented on the comparison of market data and using such as a forecasting alternative earlier in this thread, and the merits of either poll-driven or market-driven forecasts will not be known for this unique 2016 presidential election until after 8 November 2016. Today it's mere armchair speculation by all of us, but there should be numerous empirical studies following the election to suggest what forecasting models had merit.


  • #5650
    Amerika
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,175 ✭✭✭Amerika


    A new powerful ad by Trump that will get a lot of airplay in the final days of the election, and will resonate with a lot of people, especially with all the recent information coming out about Hillary...

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vppk3R6eDuU

    Probably the best commercial of his, yet.


  • #5651
    Overheal
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 86,683 ✭✭✭✭Overheal


    And the news story that will steal the show: Trumps 13 year old rape victim, Jane Doe, scheduled to break her silence

    http://lawnewz.com/high-profile/breaking-woman-who-sued-trump-for-allegedly-raping-her-when-she-was-13-to-speak-out/
    The complaint alleges that billionaire convicted pedophile Jeffrey Epstein had a woman pick up teenage girls for his famous parties, and that one of these girls was “Jane.” Another witness, “Tiffany,” who also provided an affidavit in the lawsuit, said she witnessed Trump and Epstein rape the plaintiff several times. Trump has repeatedly denied the allegations.


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  • #5652
    Fr Tod Umptious
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,652 ✭✭✭✭Fr Tod Umptious


    Overheal wrote: »
    And the news story that will steal the show: Trumps 13 year old rape victim, Jane Doe, scheduled to break her silence

    http://lawnewz.com/high-profile/breaking-woman-who-sued-trump-for-allegedly-raping-her-when-she-was-13-to-speak-out/

    But is Epstein not tainted material when it comes to all this, in the sense that Bill and he are buddies.

    But if true then its surely the nail in the Trump coffin and the confirmation that Tim Kwill be next president


  • #5653
    Brian?
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 23,015 Mod ✭✭✭✭Brian?


    Amerika wrote: »
    A new powerful ad by Trump that will get a lot of airplay in the final days of the election, and will resonate with a lot of people, especially with all the recent information coming out about Hillary...

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vppk3R6eDuU

    Probably the best commercial of his, yet.

    It's probably the perfect commercial for low information voters, if that's what you mean by the "best".

    Makes random allegations about pay to play, suspicious donors and finished with the FBI investigation. Except the FBI investigation is nothing to do with accusations of pay to play or donations to the Clinton foundation, anyone who actually pays attention to the news knows exactly what the investigation is related to.

    It's a typical Trump attack.

    This ad sums up exactly my issues with Trump:

    http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/clinton-daisy-ad-trump-230528

    they/them/theirs


    The more you can increase fear of drugs and crime, welfare mothers, immigrants and aliens, the more you control all of the people.

    Noam Chomsky



  • #5654
    K-9
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 43,313 ✭✭✭✭K-9


    Mod:
    Hi, there's a thread about university bias on the front page for people to dicuss that subject.

    Mad Men's Don Draper : What you call love was invented by guys like me, to sell nylons.



  • #5655
    Nabber
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,855 ✭✭✭Nabber


    This debate throws up one the biggest questions of the internet era. What relevance if any will main stream media play in our lives?

    We see time after time the influence the media has on our everyday life. The media is the single biggest factor in all elections globally.

    I'm inclined to open forums, public speeches or verbatim reports. When we move to media summaries and interpretations that's when agendas set in.

    I watched CNN in Hillarys last speech in FL. CNN showed people singing and dancing, yet in BBC, whom I believe favour Democrats showed a lifeless and dull affair.

    Media should be impartial, something which I don't think any Hillary supporter can say has been the case.
    I don't think it's a conspiracy, more so people protecting their investments.

    I wonder if Saunders V Rubio would have been better for USA


  • #5656
    Quin_Dub
    Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 17,047 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    Amerika wrote: »
    One thing we tend to forget is Comey told Congress he would provide updates if any new information was obtained. That seems to be what he did.

    Except , when he made the announcement he didn't have new information , they hadn't even read the emails yet (and still haven't as I understand it)

    Essentially what he knew at the time was "Someone connected to someone that works for Hillary uses eMail"

    It remains to be seen if there is anything to be found (without question , there absolutely could be and those involved can carry the impact of those findings) but Comey knew nothing about this at the time of his update to Congress and he still knows nothing for sure..

    So given that context, for him to suggest that he was obligated to update Congress is more than a bit of a stretch...


  • #5657
    PopePalpatine
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,174 ✭✭✭✭PopePalpatine


    It has emerged Trump didn't declare cancelled debts - which would have counted as taxable income - along with the c.$900m in losses that have enabled him to dodge taxes.


  • #5658
    Amerika
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,175 ✭✭✭Amerika


    Quin_Dub wrote: »
    Except , when he made the announcement he didn't have new information , they hadn't even read the emails yet (and still haven't as I understand it)

    Essentially what he knew at the time was "Someone connected to someone that works for Hillary uses eMail"

    It remains to be seen if there is anything to be found (without question , there absolutely could be and those involved can carry the impact of those findings) but Comey knew nothing about this at the time of his update to Congress and he still knows nothing for sure..

    So given that context, for him to suggest that he was obligated to update Congress is more than a bit of a stretch...

    So you KNOW FOR A FACT that agents didn't find any new information that warranted reopening the investigation?


  • #5659
    Quin_Dub
    Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 17,047 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    Amerika wrote: »
    So you KNOW FOR A FACT that agents didn't find any new information that warranted reopening the investigation?

    What I know is what they've said themselves- When Comey made his announcement they had not yet read any of the emails , they were still working on obtaining the necessary warrants.

    They had the computer from Weiner , they knew that there were email archives present on the system that appeared to be from an account owned/operated by Huma Abedin and that's pretty much the extent of the information available to Comey at the time of his letter to Congress..

    Could there be a smoking gun in those files? Absolutely , of course there could be , but at the time of Comey's announcement (and as far as we know , still) there was no evidence of anything good bad or otherwise.


  • #5660
    Overheal
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 86,683 ✭✭✭✭Overheal


    Amerika wrote: »
    So you KNOW FOR A FACT that agents didn't find any new information that warranted reopening the investigation?

    Wow that escalated quickly. Defensive much?

    If they did, they did so without a warrant and whatever they found could be inadmissible. So you better hope so


  • #5661
    mrkiscool2
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,159 ✭✭✭mrkiscool2


    Right, I don't know much about the intricacies of how searching a laptop works (remember, they had the laptop as they were investigating Child Pornography) but I have a fair idea.

    They would have checked the history and hard-drive and would have discovered that emails had been sent from Hillary's private server to the laptop, and that emails had been sent from the laptop to Clinton's server. Easy to trace things like that. So, while they have no idea what is in the emails, they know that those emails came from and went to the server that was bleached. Hence, they can connect dots and obtain a warrant for the emails. They didn't have to view any of the emails but they can safetly assume that it was part of a previous investigation which, while closed, can be re-opened if any new information came to light. Which it did, from Weiner's laptop.


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  • #5662
    alastair
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,309 ✭✭✭✭alastair


    Amerika wrote: »
    So you KNOW FOR A FACT that agents didn't find any new information that warranted reopening the investigation?

    Any messages that came from Hillary's server warranted further investigation, and the metadata flagging those on Weiner's laptop was sufficient. It's entirely possible however, that Abedin was upfront about her working process on unclassified emails from this server, and that the thousands of emails associated with her are exactly as she described. The only twist is that she forwarded them on to Weiner's laptop to print out. The problem for Hillary witch-hunters is that none of that really changes anything with regard to criminal culpability. It might warrant some non-criminal sanction for Abedin, but I even have my doubts about that.

    My prediction is that after weeks of some poor sap's time reading through thousands of office correspondence, we'll find that it's simply more of the same, except in this case, one more step removed from Hillary. So far we've had thousands of emails trawled through to uncover three marked classified documents, two of which weren't actually classifed at all, a bunch of unmarked classifed material, which was therefore treated as unclassified material, and a singular legit marked classified document. Just the one, mind. I don't expect this Weiner laptop to be a treasure trove of classifed material, if only because that's not been the case with the rest of the emails.


  • #5663
    aloyisious
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,346 ✭✭✭✭aloyisious


    Timberrrrrrrr wrote: »
    So if a black person(s) decide not to vote this is racism? Where is your proof that the drop is because both candidates are white? Personally if I lived in the states I wouldn't vote either, does that make me a racist also?

    I think you should look up the term racism to try better understand it's meaning

    Have you read this NYT article re the choice of black voters not voting, apparently because there is no black president on the ticket. http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/02/us/politics/black-turnout-falls-in-early-voting-boding-ill-for-hillary-clinton.html.

    All things being equal (NO PUN INTENDED) this could be read to mean the voters choice was because the four people running for President are white and seen as not likely to be as active on black affairs as on white affairs, with the two main contenders just after the votes without any sincere intent on following up on election promises. It'w entirely possible that the authors have got it wrong and might be pro- Hillary being temporarily disheartened by the swings in the polls.


  • #5664
    aloyisious
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,346 ✭✭✭✭aloyisious


    Anyone here in this debate from the US, or from the media industry, know whether "True Pundit" is worthwhile quoting on the investigation? I was looking for info on which police agency seized the laptop the FBI now has possession of...


  • #5665
    alastair
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,309 ✭✭✭✭alastair


    aloyisious wrote: »
    Anyone here in this debate from the US, or from the media industry, know whether "True Pundit" is worthwhile quoting on the investigation? I was looking for info on which police agency seized the laptop the FBI now has possession of...

    My understanding is that the warrant for seizing Weiner's data was issued by the U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York, so that would be a DoJ seizure, and both the NYPD and the FBI are involved in the Weiner sexting investigation, which is a federal one, as the minor was outside NY.


  • #5666
    aloyisious
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,346 ✭✭✭✭aloyisious


    alastair wrote: »
    My understanding is that the warrant for seizing Weiner's data was issued by the U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York, so that would be a DoJ seizure, and both the NYPD and the FBI are involved in the Weiner sexting investigation, which is a federal one, as the minor was outside NY.

    I'm asking because of this article in "True Pundit", which may be based on sand...... I've never heard of True Pundit before so don't know if it's reporting is reliable, or just B/S. It's so exploitive of human credulity.

    https://www.google.ie/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwiM8Oz5kovQAhXmDcAKHQifA0oQFggaMAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Ftruepundit.com%2Fbreaking-bombshell-nypd-blows-whistle-on-new-hillary-emails-money-laundering-sex-crimes-with-children-child-exploitation-pay-to-play-perjury%2F&usg=AFQjCNFLpE9qaUn4-FJ38h0ndugqMcddgQ


  • #5667
    4068ac1elhodqr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,577 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    Amerika wrote: »
    A new powerful ad by Trump that will get a lot of airplay in the final days of the election

    A triple 30sec late ad buy for the World Series Final, not cheap but a media planners dream slot. Powerful enough ads, a little simplistic perhaps, with subtle accidental comical overtones of superhero about them all.


  • #5668
    alastair
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,309 ✭✭✭✭alastair


    aloyisious wrote: »
    I'm asking because of this article in "True Pundit", which may be based on sand...... I've never heard of True Pundit before so don't know if it's reporting is reliable, or just B/S.

    https://www.google.ie/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwiM8Oz5kovQAhXmDcAKHQifA0oQFggaMAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Ftruepundit.com%2Fbreaking-bombshell-nypd-blows-whistle-on-new-hillary-emails-money-laundering-sex-crimes-with-children-child-exploitation-pay-to-play-perjury%2F&usg=AFQjCNFLpE9qaUn4-FJ38h0ndugqMcddgQ

    Well - The BS quotient in that article is pretty pretty high.


  • #5669
    aloyisious
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,346 ✭✭✭✭aloyisious


    alastair wrote: »
    Well - The BS quotient in that article is pretty pretty high.

    Glad I went for a verifiable source, I was thinking it so........ whatever! I guess I'll ignore True Pundit and stick with National Enquirer. Show's what pops up when asking what Police agency seized the Weiner laptop in connection with the under-age sex offences case.


  • #5670
    Amerika
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,175 ✭✭✭Amerika


    There are ten bellwether counties that could decide this election. I live in one, Northpton County, PA. It is crazy the amount of ads the campaigns have been placing on TV and radio the last couple of days. Add to that all the phone calls I'm getting. Just a personal observation, but it looks like Clinton is outspending Trump at least four to one. Odd also that neither candidate has come here this election. I usually go see one presidential rally each election. But this year... Nothing. I've seen GW Bush, McCain, Palin, and Biden in the past.

    http://axiomstrategies.com/abc/


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  • #5671
    FISMA.
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 451 ✭✭FISMA.


    There's a spike in early voters wanting a "do-over."

    In many states, early voters - that have already submitted their ballot, can request to change their vote and may do so once.

    Not looking good for the leader at that time.


This discussion has been closed.
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