2016 U.S. Presidential Race Megathread Mark 2.

Amerika · 28-10-2016 02:00PM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

By slashing taxes on the rich.

Didn't he also seek budget cuts to go along with tax cuts?

Sofa Spud · 28-10-2016 02:09PM

Amerika wrote: »

Didn't he also seek budget cuts to go along with tax cuts?

Yeah, but the cuts never get passed as no one wants to be seen to cut entitlements, especially the GOP, as their base tends to be older and therefore more reliant on entitlement programms and also more likely to vote.

The GOP will flag some darling target of talk radio to get cut, like Planned Parenthood or liberal icons like PBS or the EPA, which if enacted would have a minuscule impact on the deficit and never, ever mention what the biggest drain on the budget and deficit is - military spending.

AbusesToilets · 28-10-2016 02:13PM

Sofa Spud wrote: »

Yeah, but the cuts never get passed as no one wants to be seen to cut entitlements, especially the GOP, as their base tends to be older and therefore more reliant on entitlement programms and also more likely to vote.

The GOP will flag some darling target of talk radio to get cut, like Planned Parenthood or liberal icons like PBS or the EPA, which if enacted would have a minuscule impact on the deficit and never, ever mention what the biggest drain on the budget and deficit is - military spending.

Biggest budgetary items in the US are Medicare/Medicaid and Social Security fyi

Sofa Spud · 28-10-2016 02:28PM

AbusesToilets wrote: »

Biggest budgetary items in the US are Medicare/Medicaid and Social Security fyi

True - I meant the biggest item in discretionary spending - Medicare/Medicaid and SS come under mandatory spending and there will never be the votes to cut them as it would be political suicide. As would cutting military spending, so really, the only option is increasing tax receipts, which the GOP will never do - thanks to Grover Norquist - and the dems are unlikely to have to votes to push tax increases through, so it'll tick along as is until it all collapses....

TheDoctor · 28-10-2016 02:28PM

AbusesToilets wrote: »

Biggest budgetary items in the US are Medicare/Medicaid and Social Security fyi

Military.

Can easily slash a few billion off that waste of money.

Sofa Spud · 28-10-2016 02:37PM

TheDoctor wrote: »

Military.

Can easily slash a few billion off that waste of money.

Problem with this is that the military corporations are not just some of the biggest donors, but they have deliberately spread manufacturing facilities around all states (with the exception of Alaska I think) so that anyone who proposes or supports military spending cuts will have angry workers on their door steps crying blue murder at them for endangering their jobs. Does anyone know what percentage of the overall industrial manufacturing base in the U.S. is made up of military or supporting industries? Would think, with the demise of auto and heavy industries in the now 'rust-belt' that it makes up a disproportionate share and therefore, cuts to spending would have a huge impact on industrial output and employment...

Billy86 · 28-10-2016 02:45PM

A Little Pony wrote: »

Congress will just block anything Hillary wants to do if she wins the election. So in a way this election is pointless if she wins as nothing will get done. I can only say thanks to Thomas Jefferson, Adams and the other Founding Fathers in this instance.

Ted Cruz has already said that is what congress plans on doing and I think if it saves the world from a war with Russia, then good.

That is highly dependent on who wins the senate also, I would reckon. Clinton is going to win the election and so the supreme court will turn liberal for the first time in (if I recall) over 40 years, though the republicans are almost definitely going to win the House. Right now the seats race is close, with the Democrats holding and slim lead going by polls and such, as well as the caveat that 48 seats would give them an majority of sorts, keeping Sanders, King (the two independents) and Kaine (president of the senate) in mind.

AbusesToilets · 28-10-2016 03:01PM

TheDoctor wrote: »

Military.

Can easily slash a few billion off that waste of money.

Military spending has been slashed. The biggest issue with both the discretionary spending and military spending is the waste and inefficiency.

The US is already by far the biggest spender on healthcare and education, for fairly dubious returns. The recent hike in insurance premiums under the Affordable Healthcare Act got a lot of play. The administration response was not to worry, as the costs would be offset by government subsidies. What're the odds that premiums go up again in the near future, as companies know the government will cover the increased price, just as they do with the Federal student loans.

The miliatry is in a rather perilous place currently. It's weaker than it has been in decades, possibly since pre-WW1. There are numerous costly programs that are eating up the budget, for debatable outcomes, whilst man power is reaching crisis levels, and training and readiness are severely impacted. If the US wants to spend less on the military, then it needs to change its foreign policy, as that's what the military has been built to serve.

Amerika · 28-10-2016 04:39PM

8 points for Hillary vanish in 4 days. And hold the presses... Artificial Intelligence predicts a Trump win.

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/10/28/donald-trump-will-win-the-election-and-is-more-popular-than-obama-in-2008-ai-system-finds.html

The Russians?

KingBrian2 · 28-10-2016 04:47PM

Trump has the protest vote in the bag but we see a very big anti Trump vote as well. These people don't like Hillary or any of her policies they only hate Trump so come election day we'll see if that hate is enough to drive them towards the voting booth.

alastair · 28-10-2016 04:48PM

Amerika wrote: »

8 points for Hillary vanish in 4 days. And hold the presses... Artificial Intelligence predicts a Trump win.

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/10/28/donald-trump-will-win-the-election-and-is-more-popular-than-obama-in-2008-ai-system-finds.html

The Russians?

Given that the algorithm seems to just track social media chatter, Trump is the clear winner for sure. It'll be a consolation for him as the new president settles into her role.

Amerika · 28-10-2016 05:02PM

alastair wrote: »

Given that the algorithm seems to just track social media chatter, Trump is the clear winner for sure. It'll be a consolation for him as the new president settles into her role.

So with Evan McMullin taking Utah, causing the Electoral College to become a tie between Trump and Clinton, Paul Ryan picks Jill Stein to become President and Mitch McConnell picks Gary Johnson for Vice President? Interesting concept you have there.

K-9 · 28-10-2016 05:05PM

Igotadose wrote: »

I'm in the group Carcharodon (great nick!) describes. Live here, US citizen, wife's a dual. Neither of us would've voted for HRC if there'd been a better candidate in any other party. Jill Stein's an opportunistic loon with situational ethics, her VP is some sort of space alien spawn, Gary Johnson's smoked too much weed and it's addled his brain, and Hair Furor...

So, holding our noses and voting for HRC since we CANNOT have Hair Furor in the WH. Period. If, say, Romney'd been the Republican nominee, well, that might've worked for us. If Sanders had been the nominee, we'd probably have voted for him.

Mod:
Please use the candidates names when referring to them.

Christy42 · 28-10-2016 05:05PM

alastair wrote: »

Given that the algorithm seems to just track social media chatter, Trump is the clear winner for sure. It'll be a consolation for him as the new president settles into her role.

What you need to remember is that polls that predict Trump as the winner are accurate and obviously predictive. Any that predict Clinton as the winner are merely liberal bias by the media.

This is why the right winger's here only ever predict a single poll at a time and ignore the rest while the liberals can point to any poll aggregators and mathematicians who compile them (as well as some seriously less qualified poll aggregators but they should be ignored).
See 538, Princeton Electorate Consortium.

Also there are more Trump voters that no one ever polls and haven't voted before but somehow don't show up in voter registrations and weren't Republicans/shy about being Trump supporters during the primaries.

Permabear · 28-10-2016 05:27PM

This post has been deleted.

gosplan · 28-10-2016 06:11PM

Amerika wrote: »

8 points for Hillary vanish in 4 days. And hold the presses... Artificial Intelligence predicts a Trump win.

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/10/28/donald-trump-will-win-the-election-and-is-more-popular-than-obama-in-2008-ai-system-finds.html

The Russians?

Hah.

2 + 2 = fish

Nabber · 28-10-2016 06:15PM

Pitch either of these against any other Candidate and they lose.

I don't like Thrump, but I dislike Clinton more. She has a terrible attitude at the Benghazi hearings. Smiling, laughing and joking. I'm not sure she values human life not even American. The immunity given to the folks involved now means it's very unlikely Clinton can be convicted of anything.

As bad as Thrump is, it's bad to see a corrupt politician possibly wining an election, whilst also evading justice.

Looking back at both Primaries, most were terrible from both sides.

Christy42 · 28-10-2016 06:15PM

Permabear wrote: »

This post had been deleted.

Sorry I should have phrased that better. I meant some but not all which is not what I wrote.

It just annoys me. We had this continual implication that the polls and statititions were wrong 4 years ago. We have it now and will have it again in 4 years if the Democrat is ahead in them then. If the Republicans are ahead next time and the left wingers start up this bull then feel free to bring it to my attention as I will get more annoyed at that (I would label myself as a left winger and irrationally feel like that would reflect badly on me as a result).

You are correct that many Republicans (and right wingers since I don't think you are Republican if I remember correctly) have seen the writing on the wall.

Itssoeasy · 28-10-2016 06:18PM

Fox News are reporting breaking news(so it's probably an hour old at this point) that the FBI are reopening the investigation into Hillary clintons use of a private server.

Amerika · 28-10-2016 06:25PM

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Fox News are reporting breaking news(so it's probably an hour old at this point) that the FBI are reopening the investigation into Hillary clintons use of a private server.

CNBC is reporting the same...

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/10/28/fbi-probing-new-clinton-emails.html

Sofa Spud · 28-10-2016 06:28PM

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Fox News are reporting breaking news(so it's probably an hour old at this point) that the FBI are reopening the investigation into Hillary clintons use of a private server.

Not the wording FBI used - reopening comes from GOP Rep Chaffetz - could be nothing, could be something, doubt any will care at this point....

Amerika · 28-10-2016 06:29PM

Christy42 wrote: »

Sorry I should have phrased that better. I meant some but not all which is not what I wrote.

It just annoys me. We had this continual implication that the polls and statititions were wrong 4 years ago. We have it now and will have it again in 4 years if the Democrat is ahead in them then. If the Republicans are ahead next time and the left wingers start up this bull then feel free to bring it to my attention as I will get more annoyed at that (I would label myself as a left winger and irrationally feel like that would reflect badly on me as a result).

You are correct that many Republicans (and right wingers since I don't think you are Republican if I remember correctly) have seen the writing on the wall.

Who then? I know I have said there might be hope for Trump, but I think Hillary will win, as even if Trump might get the popular vote, I don't see a path for him to get to 270 EC votes.

Itssoeasy · 28-10-2016 06:29PM

Sofa Spud wrote: »

Not the wording FBI used - reopening comes from GOP Rep Chaffetz - could be nothing, could be something, doubt any will care at this point....

I'm just quoting what fox said in the notification I got.

Christy42 · 28-10-2016 06:36PM

Amerika wrote: »

Who then? I know I have said there might be hope for Trump, but I think Hillary will win, as even if Trump might get the popular vote, I don't see a path for him to get to 270 EC votes.

And yet you decided to report on a Clinton collapse. You didn't say hope, you went straight to the 8 point collapse in a poll that is probably an anomaly (and looking into it a poster pointed it out it is just a social media thing anyway). At a minimum the way you reported that story was misleading.

Endoftheroad keeps going on about shy voters too. I am not bothered going through the various times it has been brought up. Of course each time it is just an opinion that is held in the face of all evidence purely to keep bringing the topic and the largely tiny possibility back into people's minds. There is an equal possibility of shy Clinton voters from what I can see that these posters forget to mention at the time but don't disagree with when it is pointed out.

B0jangles · 28-10-2016 06:40PM

Seems like a very big and public step to take so close to the election when there is so far no evidence that whatever they have found is either important or relevant according to Comey's own letter:

Amerika · 28-10-2016 06:42PM

Christy42 wrote: »

And yet you decided to report on a Clinton collapse. You didn't say hope, you went straight to the 8 point collapse in a poll that is probably an anomaly (and looking into it a poster pointed it out it is just a social media thing anyway). At a minimum the way you reported that story was misleading.

Endoftheroad keeps going on about shy voters too. I am not bothered going through the various times it has been brought up. Of course each time it is just an opinion that is held in the face of all evidence purely to keep bringing the topic and the largely tiny possibility back into people's minds. There is an equal possibility of shy Clinton voters from what I can see that these posters forget to mention at the time but don't disagree with when it is pointed out.

That's all hope. Doesn't mean I think he will win with only 10 days to go. I do think it will be closer in the end than what all the talking heads predict, though.

A Little Pony · 28-10-2016 07:09PM

Get big money on Trump now, I am certainly putting some on him to win, this news is huge.

Zubeneschamali · 28-10-2016 07:12PM

A Little Pony wrote: »

I am certainly putting some on him to win

I bet you are.

Billy86 · 28-10-2016 07:12PM

A Little Pony wrote: »

Get big money on Trump now, I am certainly putting some on him to win, this news is huge.

You said similar a few days ago then disappeared when I offered you a bet for charity on here.

A Little Pony · 28-10-2016 07:13PM

B0jangles wrote: »

Seems like a very big and public step to take so close to the election when there is so far no evidence that whatever they have found is either important or relevant according to Comey's own letter:

They tried to cover it up but once Trump said he will clean out the swamp as he put it, they can't take the risk. Otherwise they would be fked.

2016 U.S. Presidential Race Megathread Mark 2.

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