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2016 U.S. Presidential Race Megathread Mark 2.

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Comments

  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 47,769 CMod ✭✭✭✭Black Swan


    Well, the 3rd and last 2016 presidential debate has concluded, and the winner was Trump for Trump supporters, and Clinton for Clinton supporters. Of course both sides will claim they won, and the other side lost, just as expected. What a craic this election has been from start to the 8 November 2016 finish, which, if you listened to Trump tonight, may not end if he loses. He'll wait and see, and wants that to remain a "surprise," Trump being Trump.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,545 ✭✭✭jooksavage


    I ended up watching the whole thing. Obviously, like everyone else here, I'm not impartial but I really don't know how it could be seen as anything but a win for Clinton. Trump was calmer than usual for a lot of it but ended up talking over Clinton - "wrong", "nasty woman", etc.

    I think his flippant refusal to say whether he'd concede defeat on Nov 8 blasted everything else. It mightn't mean much to his supporters but it's a pretty significant statement. In the middle of what was in some ways his most restrained performance, he never sounded more like a dictator.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,174 ✭✭✭✭VinLieger


    jooksavage wrote: »

    I think his flippant refusal to say whether he'd concede defeat on Nov 8 blasted everything else. It mightn't mean much to his supporters but it's a pretty significant statement. In the middle of what was in some ways his most restrained performance, he never sounded more like a dictator.

    It's actually huge for his supporters specifically the breitbart literate ones and the super extreme conspiracy nuts. He's playing directly to his core Trump base with this rubbish.

    But yeah it's super scary how flippantly he's doing it and it's not something you can take back anywhere near as easily. The fact he's putting his own ego before the trust of the entire electoral system shows how much he should not be president


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 23,560 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    Trump wrote:
    we're gonna speed up the process bigly
    I have to admit I was wrong

    Donald Trump does know all the best words.

    Bigly is a great word. A tremendous word. I am going to incorporate it into my daily vocabulary.

    Unfortunately for him, I don't think it's enough to turn around his election. He's still going to lose the election bigly.

    Chomsky(2017) on the Republican party

    "Has there ever been an organisation in human history that is dedicated, with such commitment, to the destruction of organised human life on Earth?"



  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,403 ✭✭✭Jan_de_Bakker


    I think Trump won that one.

    - allthough I agreed with a lot of stuff Hillary said - for once


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 23,495 ✭✭✭✭Billy86


    A damningly accurate summary of last night by Dan Rather he posted on Facebook.
    I suspect the headline out of tonight may very well be Donald Trump’s refusal to guarantee that he will accept the decision of the voters on November 8. It is a horrifying and destabilizing betrayal of the norms of American politics. But it was just one part of a this final debate in a campaign that seems to be firmly in the Twilight Zone. This is not what our democracy should be, but it is where we are today. I wonder if many minds were changed. I doubt it.

    Hillary Clinton has been judged the winner of the first two debates. Tonight, many felt Trump needed a knockout to get back in the race. But I think this was Clinton’s best performance – perhaps by far. I think she wanted this to be a preview of her presidency. Her tone was the most straightforward and direct I have yet seen. She didn’t try to run away from her policy expertise. She embraced it. It was as if she was saying, “I am here. I am smart. I am qualified. I will not be intimidated or silenced. And I am ready to be president.”

    The format of tonight’s debate favored depth over breadth on the number of topics. This meant that a lot of important issues (climate change?) were left unquestioned, but the benefit was that the able moderator Chris Wallace could drill down to real policy with the most important quality of an interviewer – the follow up question. And he used it to good effect.

    There has been a silly trope floating around the coverage of the Clinton campaign about “likeability”. Many critics have claimed that the very notion is sexist. I agree. Yet tonight, Clinton seemed to throw those worries aside. There were fewer anecdotal flights of storytelling about her interactions with “average families” that you often hear about on the stump. Clinton was steely, determined, forceful. I think this will be the tone of her presidential face, and I think it is one she wears well and naturally.

    Clinton hit Trump hard on issue after issue with knowledge and facts – on Russia, the Supreme Court, nuclear weapons, immigration, and the list goes on. You could disagree with her on policy, but you can’t question whether she knows what she’s talking about. One big line that I think will play on was in the dust up over Russia. Who would have thought that years after the end of the Cold War the specter of Russia would loom over and American presidential campaign? But there you have it. When the discussion turned to Wikileaks and who was responsible for the hack, Trump, disagreeing with the assessment of the U.S. intelligence agencies, said we don’t know who is behind it. Clinton fired back – He would rather believe Vladimir Putin than the military professionals and intelligence officials. It’s a line you could expect from Ronald Reagan.

    By contrast, Trump has been skating through the campaign on buzzwords and applause lines that fire up his base. Tonight the format asked for more substance and he struggled. He often left topics dangling, meandered through head-scratching sentences, and fumbled with thoughts that went nowhere – all lines of thoughts wavering in the wind. Often his most cogent statements were cheap shots. When he would stop talking, I sometimes had to ask myself what was he talking about?

    Trump’s millions of eager followers will continue to cheer as the majority of Americans seem to be turning the page on this ugly campaign. They have seen all they need from Trump and they have had enough. There was many lines from this debate that could make for powerful Clinton campaign ads. But I am not sure she will need them.

    Trump may not agree to abide by the results of the election. But hopefully the rest of the country can act with a bit more maturity and decency.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 150 ✭✭nomadchocolate


    If Trump is to win he really needs a wikileaks email or bombshell to stick.

    Clinton, I think, has hovered up alot of the undecided voters based on last nights performance. Trump waffling on about "extracting" babies at 9 months further alienated any major potential female support, surely?

    Is Clinton's health ok?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,335 ✭✭✭daithi7


    Billy86 wrote: »
    A damningly accurate summary of last night by Dan Rather he posted on Facebook.

    Yeah, I agree with the summary, except this line puzzles me tbh
    'There has been a silly trope floating around the coverage of the Clinton campaign about “likeability”. Many critics have claimed that the very notion is sexist. I agree. .....'

    What's sexist about "likeability", it's probably the most gender neutral quality known e.g. JFK was likeable, Nixon arguably not, May is arguably likeable, Farrage is not. It's an easy thing to understand and a well known litmus test for voters on whether they opt for candidates or not.


    I've watched about an hour of the debate and at last, I thought Clinton began to look someway presidential. She was steely, knowledgeable and formidable , and beat the floundering Trump hands down. She is far from near the perfect candidate, but she is clearly better than the alternative. This election has been all but over since the Trumpgate video & the ensuing second debate. He is now a damaged, & dangerous candidate with a deeply damaged campaign (that even the Republicans can't abide) against a competent, formidable but cold competitor of dubious integrity, ethics & track record. Game Over, (another) Clinton will be the next president of the USA.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,830 ✭✭✭CMOTDibbler


    daithi7 wrote: »
    Yeah, I agree with the summary, except this line puzzles me tbh
    'There has been a silly trope floating around the coverage of the Clinton campaign about “likeability”. Many critics have claimed that the very notion is sexist. I agree. .....'

    What's sexist about "likeability", it's probably the most gender neutral quality known e.g. JFK was likeable, Nixon arguably not, May is arguably likeable, Farrage is not. It's an easy thing to understand and a well known litmus test for voters on whether they opt for candidates or not.
    Yeah, I'd agree with that. It struck me as well when reading it.

    I suspect that there's context needed that those of us living at a far remove can't really grasp.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,351 ✭✭✭✭aloyisious


    I'd have given it 65/35 to Hillary up to the time Don blew it when he refused to do what any normal person would do in the event of losing, behave gracefully and accept defeat. It might sound ridiculous but it wouldn't surprise me if he would announce a court attempt to overturn the election result when and should he lose. It'd be a natural Trump-ism. Saying he wouldn't accept being the loser gracefully blew it for him.

    IMO, Dons petulant "she's a nasty woman" was so child-like when they were two adults involved in debating the future course of the US helped close the case for Hillary. He just can't being petulant when faced with the fact he can't respond to truths with relevant answers.

    The only other way I see Hillary losing being the person inaugurated as the 44th US President has to be something putting her out of action.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,405 ✭✭✭Sofa Spud


    Watched the whole thing, couple of things stood out.

    First, when they announced the moderators, I thought Wallace could be the least objective and it turned out, apart from his obvious nervousness at times, he actually did a good job of holding both of them to account in a fairly balanced (geddit!) way.

    Clinton looked a little rattled at times but was able to pivot (another annoying Americanism that's become part of the modern lexicon) away from testing questions and Trump was not focused enough to make any great capital when he could have.

    But the obvious point is how unhinged Trump came across - as Maher puts it, he came across as a whinny little b&%ch. He managed to turn questions about specific policy or character questions where he could have hit Hillary hard to being about himself, he showed little understanding of policy and his economic policy is clearly based on wishful thinking and the hope that people will like what he's saying, even though what he's saying is short on any specific policy, and won't question the logic of it.

    The sad thing is that you will have Trump supporters voting against their own economic interests, when their messed up economic situation is their main reason for voting for him - they think he can stop the tide of jobs being off-shored and the decimation of the middle and working classes, when the only specifics he's come up with are large tax cuts for the wealthy and more deregulation, which rarely has a positive impact on the working poor. Not a fan of Hill, but at least she seems to have a clear plan to reduce education costs - which is a corner stone of economic mobility - a plan for infrastructure investment and targeted tax cuts for high earners.

    No doubt most of the coverage will focus on his unwillingness to accept the result, which we speculated about on this thread before the debate and looks like we called it correctly, but the only clear outcome is that whatever the result, America looses - it will be more partisan, more divided and even more focused on style and edifice and less on policy and substance than it has ever been before. Good luck to them.....


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,435 ✭✭✭pumpkin4life


    Debate was a draw, with maybe a slight edge to Clinton.

    I doubt it will change people's mind's much.


  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 17,052 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    Debate was a draw, with maybe a slight edge to Clinton.

    I doubt it will change people's mind's much.

    The general consensus from what I've seen and read so far was that Trump had his best debate performance so far , but not the absolute Blow-out performance he needed to shift the needle.

    However he then utterly destroyed that good work by his refusal to say he'd accept the election result. The "such a nasty woman" comment didn't help either..

    Kinda like scoring the equaliser in the World-cup final then head-butting the ref just afterwards.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 86,683 ✭✭✭✭Overheal


    Hillary is even winning the Breitbart online poll...

    Trump ended his campaign last night when he refused to acknowledge a peaceful transition of power to whomever wins the presidency. Seems like everyone is blasting him - left and right - about how damning those remarks were and how they may have very plainly put the final nail in this campaign's coffin.

    2016 is decided. Hillary Clinton is our next President chosen from a narrow field of finalists and was determined to be the least awful pill to swallow. God bless America.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 23,495 ✭✭✭✭Billy86


    Quin_Dub wrote: »
    The general consensus from what I've seen and read so far was that Trump had his best debate performance so far , but not the absolute Blow-out performance he needed to shift the needle.

    However he then utterly destroyed that good work by his refusal to say he'd accept the election result. The "such a nasty woman" comment didn't help either..

    Kinda like scoring the equaliser in the World-cup final then head-butting the ref just afterwards.
    I'm guessing you haven't seen the debate yet? I would advise you to, Trump was, to use maybe his favour word in the whole wide world, adisaster. A disaster of epic proportions. Started ok but behind for 15 mins of so, and then absolutely nosedived in a seemingly never ending spiral right to the end, where he said a vote for Clinton would be a vote for the current president who has pretty high approval rating.

    It was a magnificent Trumped up train wreck.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 23,495 ✭✭✭✭Billy86


    Overheal wrote: »
    Hillary is even winning the Breitbart online poll...

    And not just winning it, but winning by 18.8%

    http://www.mediaite.com/online/hillary-clinton-is-currently-leading-the-breitbart-online-poll/

    It looks like even the pollbots have abandoned Trump. Brannon will be next, Ailes left yesterday. It's going to be a lonely finish for the man who tried to alienate everyone he possibly could. No big surprise there.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,116 ✭✭✭Trent Houseboat


    Debate was a draw, with maybe a slight edge to Clinton.

    I doubt it will change people's mind's much.

    I might be spending too much time on 538, but this reminds me when you see the LA Times/Dornsife poll is Trump +1 and 538 adjust that to Clinton +2.
    A draw in pumpkin's opinion means a decisive victory for Clinton.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 86,683 ✭✭✭✭Overheal


    If Ailes left him so much for TrumpTV

    All he had to do is play it cool but he took this conspiracy theory over the line that people could follow him on.

    Take a good look at the polls/models, because his chances of winning are going to drop hard


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 23,495 ✭✭✭✭Billy86


    I might be spending too much time on 538, but this reminds me when you see the LA Times/Dornsife poll is Trump +1 and 538 adjust that to Clinton +2.
    A draw in pumpkin's opinion means a decisive victory for Clinton.

    Will try to find it later, up there's an interesting story on their model, its not exactly biased as much as deeply, deeply flawed. One 1 year old black guy in Chicago's vote is worth about 350 standard votes of those participating in it, for example.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,958 ✭✭✭✭Timberrrrrrrr


    Another woman comes forward to accuse Trump of inappropriate sexual conduct

    Live on sky now


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,405 ✭✭✭Sofa Spud


    Interesting to go on youtube to watch some of the post debate analysis, especially on Fox. Hannity has not hidden the fact that he's a Trump supporter (did anyone call him after the last debate?) but his coverage with Trump's American Pyscho clone son was fascinating as a lesson in just how partisan and delusional the coverage can be.

    Someone mentioned earlier how now that Roger Ailes has washed his hands of Trump, he can say good bye to Trump TV - that may be the case, but I wouldn't be surprised if it still happens, just maybe catering more to the extreme fringes of the alt:right that have a preference for shiny metallic head-wear than a potentially 'bigger tent' conservative base.

    The possible scary thing to consider is that Trump has clearly shown there is a strong appetite for the angry, America First, the 'elites are out to get us', downtrodden, ready for a populist (demagogic) vote, and while he would appear to have blown it due to his temperament and insane baggage, what if there was more media and politically savvy personality to emerge that could exploit that base more effectively, without alienating so many core groups (women, minorities etc)?

    This probably boils down to what's going to happen to the GOP after the election? Civil War between the Trumpeters and the 'sane' wing and then a split? Will the defeat be so bad, and not just in the presidential but also the congressional, that the collective response is 'F@%k that, we're not trying that nonsense again' and they go back to business as usual?
    I'm not sure that will be possible, the cat (or whatever it was living on Trump's head) is out of the bag and I'm not sure it can be put back, or even spayed or neutered.

    The really interesting thing to come out of this election will be what happens when Trump's inevitable Twitter meltdown subsides in the aftermath and what then for the right? Can sanity be restored or will someone else step in to exploit the vacuum? Hillary, by her very existence, will give plenty of fuel to someone to pick up where the Donald left off, if he does.....


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 38,245 ✭✭✭✭BorneTobyWilde


    Another woman comes forward to accuse Trump of inappropriate sexual conduct

    Live on sky now


    After debate .
    I wonder will there be a witness or proof this time or just a story.
    These are puppets being paid by Clinton to dance to her lies.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,958 ✭✭✭✭Timberrrrrrrr


    After debate .
    I wonder will there be a witness or proof this time or just a story.
    These are puppets being paid by Clinton to dance to her lies.

    Evidence for your claims?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 86,683 ✭✭✭✭Overheal


    After debate .
    I wonder will there be a witness or proof this time or just a story.
    These are puppets being paid by Clinton to dance to her lies.

    Trevor Noah: “To be fair, Trump thinks all women are puppets, that’s why he’s always trying to stick his hand up them.”


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,830 ✭✭✭CMOTDibbler


    After debate .
    I wonder will there be a witness or proof this time or just a story.
    These are puppets being paid by Clinton to dance to her lies.
    In a news vacuum the above might actually be believed by somebody. Possibly.

    But when Trump himself is on record boasting about his actions with women, then it just seems a teensy bit off. :D


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,116 ✭✭✭Trent Houseboat


    Sofa Spud wrote: »
    Interesting to go on youtube to watch some of the post debate analysis, especially on Fox. Hannity has not hidden the fact that he's a Trump supporter (did anyone call him after the last debate?) but his coverage with Trump's American Pyscho clone son was fascinating as a lesson in just how partisan and delusional the coverage can be.

    Megyn Kelly called him out after the first debate. Can't remember the wording, but some thing like: Trump is talking to Hannity now let's see if he addresses a journalist afterwards.

    No fan a of Kelly but it was a solid burn.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,405 ✭✭✭Sofa Spud


    Yeah, in fairness to Kelly, she can be the voice of reason when she's not insisting a bit too vigorously that Santa is white.

    I liked her burn when Karl Rove was trying to insist that it wasn't all over for Romney last time 'round when some of the districts in Ohio were still waiting to report - iirc she said something like 'is that mathematically possible or are you just saying something to try to make yourself feel better?'....


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,900 ✭✭✭InTheTrees


    In a news vacuum the above might actually be believed by somebody. Possibly.

    But when Trump himself is on record boasting about his actions with women, then it just seems a teensy bit off. :D

    I know. I dont get the outrage at these victims coming forward. Trump boasted about it ffs.
    Save


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 41,542 ✭✭✭✭Itssoeasy


    I didn't watch the debate last night due to the time difference. But I see that Chris Wallace is getting praise for how he moderated the debate which I wasn't really surprised to see. Himself and Shepard smith just seem so out of place on Fox News. Shepard at times you can see him losing the will to live.

    I also see that trump didn't commit to acccepting the election results. Good man Donald. His campaign is like a multi vehicle car crash. You should look away but can't.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 41,542 ✭✭✭✭Itssoeasy


    I see the Donald has just said he will accept the election result "if he wins" he probably thinks that will do.


This discussion has been closed.
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