The difference between Aleppo and Mosul?

Del.Monte · 17-10-2016 1:21pm #1

Please, can anybody explain the difference between what the Russians and their allies are doing in Aleppo and what the Iraqis and their allies are doing in Mosul?

Apart that is from both being futile exercises in trying to dislodge heavily armed enemy forces that have been dug in for months in urban surroundings. Why are the media running with the Mosul nonsense today as if it was the liberation of Europe in 1944?

The stench of hypocrisy from both Russia and America is overwhelming. This is not some stupid computer game and lots of real people are being killed and they don't re-spawn. :mad:

alastair · 17-10-2016 1:47pm

The primary difference is in who's holding either city. ISIS, who's activities and ideology it's kinda hard to find any sort of defence for, hold Mosul, while Aleppo is not a stronghold of ISIS, but rather a diverse collection of anti-Assad rebels, which certainly includes Jabhat Fath al-Sham, but also other less jihadist groupings. Now, while you might argue that the government in Baghdad has it's failings and problems, it's not anywhere near the scale of the Assad regime's. While military attacks on either city are obviously going to result in civilian casualties, there's still a clear distinction in the morality of attempting to take either city.

Del.Monte · 17-10-2016 1:59pm

Can't agree. Both big powers are just playing wargames and should fold their tents and go home.

recedite · 17-10-2016 8:23pm

When civilians get killed by Russian air strikes in Alleppo its " Russian war crimes".
When they get killed by Coalition air strikes in Mosul, it'll be because they are "being used as human shields".
In Raqqa, it just goes unreported.

recedite · 17-10-2016 8:37pm

alastair wrote: »

While military attacks on either city are obviously going to result in civilian casualties, there's still a clear distinction in the morality of attempting to take either city.

It seems that Sunni Islamic fundamentalists dominate both Aleppo and Mosul.
They don't particularly wish to come under Assad's control, but neither do they wish to be ruled by a sectarian Shia govt. in Baghdad. This is the reason that IS and Al Sham have been able to walk into these cities so easily and assume control.
When the combined forces of Kurds and Iraqi Shias take Mosul, they will be regarded by most of the residents there as an army of occupation. The few who didn't feel that way, moved out or were killed 2 years ago.

BoJack Horseman · 17-10-2016 11:00pm

recedite wrote: »

In Raqqa, it just goes unreported.

Who is there to report it?

recedite · 18-10-2016 10:25am

It shouldn't matter whether there is anyone there to report it, or who is doing the bombing.
Either a bombing campaign in a residential area is a war crime, or it is not.

Personally I'm inclined to think that if the civilians have been warned that the bombs are coming, and have a relatively safe corridor out, then its as acceptable as any aspect of war. This was actually done in both Aleppo and Mosul. At least as far as was practicable, considering some reports of city defenders killing people who were trying to leave.

Compare to say, Hiroshima or Dresden, where non-combatants were given no chance to escape.

brickmauser · 18-10-2016 10:30am

Del.Monte wrote: »

Please, can anybody explain the difference between what the Russians and their allies are doing in Aleppo and what the Iraqis and their allies are doing in Mosul?

Apart that is from both being futile exercises in trying to dislodge heavily armed enemy forces that have been dug in for months in urban surroundings. Why are the media running with the Mosul nonsense today as if it was the liberation of Europe in 1944?

The stench of hypocrisy from both Russia and America is overwhelming. This is not some stupid computer game and lots of real people are being killed and they don't re-spawn. :mad:

Dislodging dug in forces is not futile.

It happens in every war.

A whole swathe of Iraq and Syria is under Islamist rule.

Enough is enough.

They have to be crushed and scattered and wiped out.

BoJack Horseman · 18-10-2016 10:30am

recedite wrote: »

It shouldn't matter whether there is anyone there to report it

So, you are critical that civilian deaths go unreported in Raqqa.... but it doesn't matter that there is no one there to report it.

Okey-dokey.

Tim76 · 18-10-2016 10:31am

recedite wrote: »

Compare to say, Hiroshima or Dresden, where non-combatants were given no chance to escape.

Seems like it's only war crimes when the other side are committing them.

recedite · 18-10-2016 11:11am

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

So, you are critical that civilian deaths go unreported in Raqqa.... but it doesn't matter that there is no one there to report it.

Okey-dokey.

I think you misunderstood me. I wasn't being critical of the "western" media or the reporters for not going to, and reporting from, Raqqa. I was being critical of them focussing on Aleppo as if it was a city where only civilians were being bombed, while treating Mosul and Raqqa as cities where only IS fighters are being bombed.
The reality is that all these cities contain a mix of combatants, non-combatant family and/or supporters of the combatants, and people who just happened to be living there.

BoJack Horseman · 18-10-2016 11:17am

recedite wrote: »

them focussing on Aleppo as if it was a city where only civilians were being bombed, while treating Mosul and Raqqa as cities where only IS fighters are being bombed.

Example?

Del.Monte · 18-10-2016 12:51pm

brickmauser wrote: »

Dislodging dug in forces is not futile.

It happens in every war.

A whole swathe of Iraq and Syria is under Islamist rule.

Enough is enough.

They have to be crushed and scattered and wiped out.

Dislodging heavily dug-in forces is extremely slow as well as being costly in terms of lives and property. The fact that a 'whole swathe of Iraq and Syria is under Islamist rule' is neither here nor there - what will you replace it with? It's all nonsense and the West (and Russia) should keep out of it unless the situation looks like becomes a threat to World peace like North Korea. The Americans, Chinese and Russians would be better off coming up with a plan for regime change in North Korea rather than mucking about in the Middle East.

Incidentally, given how strongly you feel about wiping Islamists out what will you be doing about it?

seamus · 18-10-2016 1:03pm

Mosul is being treated like a big deal because the loss of Mosul would be the death knell of ISIS. It has a clear delineation between the good guys and the bad invader-guys.

Aleppo is (for the most part) more akin to a civil war with no real heroes on any front, just a lot of complete bastards all fighting over the same city and killing civilians.

The former is a far easier sell for any media outlet.

Brian? · 18-10-2016 1:32pm

So far air strikes on Mosul aren't deliberately targeting civilian infrastructure or stopping with phosphorus. I think that's a start.

Mosul is being closed in on slowly, allowing civilians to flee and will be retaken by the Iraq army and Sunni militias to avoid any blood letting by Shia fighters. Again, avoiding civilian casualties.

It's pretty clear that ISIS are the bad guys. There are no clear bad guys in the conflict around Aleppo. It's a giant cluster f*ck.

Both are horrible situations I wish weren't happening. But there is a certain moral justification for retaking Mosul from ISIS.

18-10-2016 1:33pm

Mosul hasnt really started yet but yes, there is a whiff of propaganda about it. For example, today we have been told that the allies liberated 7 to 10 villages.. but in the small print we learn also that many of these villages havent been occupied for years and some are only composed of four of five houses.. Mosul could turn into an Aleppo, but its hasn't yet. It all depends how the fighting develops.

mariaalice · 18-10-2016 2:16pm

ISIS and the jihadist seem to have had their day, there was a small item on the BBC news one evening about Europeans who had gone to fight for ISIS and now are trying to get back to europe having realised its largely a con. It will all peter out to small Marxist Islamic group and a small few jihadist. Russia and the US will sabre rattle in public while doing deals behind the scenes.

Brian? · 18-10-2016 2:48pm

mariaalice wrote: »

ISIS and the jihadist seem to have had their day, there was a small item on the BBC news one evening about Europeans who had gone to fight for ISIS and now are trying to get back to europe having realised its largely a con. It will all peter out to small Marxist Islamic group and a small few jihadist. Russia and the US will sabre rattle in public while doing deals behind the scenes.

Marxist Islamic group? Where are you getting that from? Just a handy chance to have a pop at Marxists?

mariaalice · 18-10-2016 5:26pm

Brian? wrote: »

Marxist Islamic group? Where are you getting that from? Just a handy chance to have a pop at Marxists?

http://isj.org.uk/isis-and-counter-revolution-towards-a-marxist-analysis/

I would have though it was a well know analysis of some of the terror groups in the middle east and Africa.

brickmauser · 18-10-2016 5:29pm

Del.Monte wrote: »

Dislodging heavily dug-in forces is extremely slow as well as being costly in terms of lives and property. The fact that a 'whole swathe of Iraq and Syria is under Islamist rule' is neither here nor there - what will you replace it with? It's all nonsense and the West (and Russia) should keep out of it unless the situation looks like becomes a threat to World peace like North Korea. The Americans, Chinese and Russians would be better off coming up with a plan for regime change in North Korea rather than mucking about in the Middle East.

Incidentally, given how strongly you feel about wiping Islamists out what will you be doing about it?

Against overwhelming air power ground artillery and tanks and infantry a dug in enemy can only hold out so long especially when they are surrounded and cut off.

Brian? · 18-10-2016 5:45pm

mariaalice wrote: »

http://isj.org.uk/isis-and-counter-revolution-towards-a-marxist-analysis/

I would have though it was a well know analysis of some of the terror groups in the middle east and Africa.

It's far from well known. ISIS, the terror group we're discussing, are not a Marxist organisation.

mariaalice · 18-10-2016 5:48pm

Brian? wrote: »

It's far from well known. ISIS, the terror group we're discussing, are not a Marxist organisation.

But they don't exist in isolation in Syria or the middle east in general, that would be like saying discuss the IRA but make no reference to any other terrorist or political organisation around them.

Brian? · 18-10-2016 6:53pm

mariaalice wrote: »

But they don't exist in isolation in Syria or the middle east in general, that would be like saying discuss the IRA but make no reference to any other terrorist or political organisation around them.

I think I've missed your point here.

recedite · 18-10-2016 8:12pm

seamus wrote: »

Mosul is being treated like a big deal because the loss of Mosul would be the death knell of ISIS. It has a clear delineation between the good guys and the bad invader-guys.

If only it was that simple

Three points;
It would only be the end of IS in the Iraqi part of the Levant. Their capital is in the Syrian part, in Raqqa.

The residents of Mosul are mostly Sunni muslims. The invading coalition are Shia and Kurdish ground forces, backed up by western air support. None of these will be welcomed by the residents.

Then you have the added complication of the Turks wanting to join in the fight so that an extremist Sunni regime in Mosul can be replaced with a less extreme Sunni regime. And then the Iranian backed Shia-Iraqi ground forces being very much against that idea.

KingBrian2 · 18-10-2016 8:31pm

It has degenerated into a Shia Sunni divide over there. Most Iraqi's are Shia but those cities are Sunni predominantly both Mosul and Aleppo in Syria so they are sticking to the Sunni Wahhabi ISIS. That is why their is such a concern over a bloodbath. The Shia hate the Sunni as much as the west. The tolerant form of Islam hasn't reached those desert regions. Everyone is an infidel in their minds so the battles are going to be long fought out affairs.

Brian? · 18-10-2016 9:04pm

recedite wrote: »

If only it was that simple
Three points;
It would only be the end of IS in the Iraqi part of the Levant. Their capital is in the Syrian part, in Raqqa.

The residents of Mosul are mostly Sunni muslims. The invading coalition are Shia and Kurdish ground forces, backed up by western air support. None of these will be welcomed by the residents.

Actually, the invasion will be carried out by the Iraqi army and Sunni militias. The Kurds and Shia militias are operating as blocking forces to the north and west of Mosul. They've been ordered to hold and wait.

alastair · 18-10-2016 9:20pm

KingBrian2 wrote: »

It has degenerated into a Shia Sunni divide over there. Most Iraqi's are Shia but those cities are Sunni predominantly both Mosul and Aleppo in Syria so they are sticking to the Sunni Wahhabi ISIS. That is why their is such a concern over a bloodbath. The Shia hate the Sunni as much as the west. The tolerant form of Islam hasn't reached those desert regions. Everyone is an infidel in their minds so the battles are going to be long fought out affairs.

Nonsense. There's no ISIS power base in Aleppo, and the majority of Syrians (not just the residents of Aleppo) are Sunnis. The Shiite minority in Syria really play a minor role in the core sectarian divide in Syria, which is a Sunni Alawite one. You really can't ascribe the sectarian issues that pertain to Iraq, to Syria.

recedite · 19-10-2016 12:25pm

Brian? wrote: »

Actually, the invasion will be carried out by the Iraqi army and Sunni militias. The Kurds and Shia militias are operating as blocking forces to the north and west of Mosul. They've been ordered to hold and wait.

From what I've heard the "shia militias" have been asked not to enter the city, but to "clear" outlying villages instead. As these guys appear to be psychopathic volunteers from as far away as Iran, this sounds fairly horrific. A bit like the way the SS units "cleared" hostile villages in Russia during WW2, or the Black and Tans "cleared" them in West Cork.

Then you have the "regular" Iraqi army, who are also Shia, but a bit more controllable. But still prone to sudden uncontrolled flight back to Baghdad whenever they find themselves in a Sunni area, which is quite understandable.
The Kurds are definitely the most trustworthy and reliable.

As for the Sunni militias you speak of, I doubt the existence of a militia that is willing to take up arms against its own people. But I have no doubt that the American special forces on the ground are trying to recruit a temporary militia force which can be labelled "Sunni Moderates" and they will pushed to the forefront for the cameras when the city is "liberated".

Brian? · 19-10-2016 1:13pm

recedite wrote: »

From what I've heard the "shia militias" have been asked not to enter the city, but to "clear" outlying villages instead. As these guys appear to be psychopathic volunteers from as far away as Iran, this sounds fairly horrific. A bit like the way the SS units "cleared" hostile villages in Russia during WW2, or the Black and Tans "cleared" them in West Cork.

So you've decided the Shia Iraqis are about to commit genocide? How about we wait to see what happens. What's your alternative idea to retake Mosul from ISIS? Or do you think they should be left alone.

Then you have the "regular" Iraqi army, who are also Shia, but a bit more controllable. But still prone to sudden uncontrolled flight back to Baghdad whenever they find themselves in a Sunni area, which is quite understandable.
The Kurds are definitely the most trustworthy and reliable.

As for the Sunni militias you speak of, I doubt the existence of a militia that is willing to take up arms against its own people. But I have no doubt that the American special forces on the ground are trying to recruit a temporary militia force which can be labelled "Sunni Moderates" and they will pushed to the forefront for the cameras when the city is "liberated".

You seem to want to believe the worst in everyone involved.

As far as the Sunni militias are concerned they are liberating their "own people" from ISIS, they are not taking up arms against their "own people". There are plenty of Sunni muslims who despise ISIS and their distortion of Islam.

recedite · 19-10-2016 1:34pm

Brian? wrote: »

So you've decided the Shia Iraqis are about to commit genocide? How about we wait to see what happens. What's your alternative idea to retake Mosul from ISIS? Or do you think they should be left alone.

There is no solution in sight for the people of Mosul unfortunately, they have been well and truly shafted. The choice is between domination by IS nutcases, or domination by a Shia govt. that hates them. And now they are going to be bombed, shelled, and starved for the next couple of months.

There are three possible forms of stable govt. in this region;
1. A Sunni fundamentalist religious state such as IS or Saudi Arabia. It can only exist in a Sunni area.

2. A Shia state such as Iran or the current rump version of what was Iraq. It can only exist in a Shia area.

3. A secular state run by an arab nationalist, which keeps the lid on religious tensions within the population. It can encompass mixed areas, including Sunni, Shia, Christian, Yazidi etc. It needs a "strongman" to lead it, maybe a dictator and typically a Baathist with a military background. Saddam Hussein, the Assad family, Nasser of Egypt are all examples.
This is best for the people, but is not acceptable to US/Israeli interests, who prefer the arabs to exist in a state of constant chaos.

alastair · 19-10-2016 3:04pm

recedite wrote: »

There is no solution in sight for the people of Mosul unfortunately, they have been well and truly shafted. The choice is between domination by IS nutcases, or domination by a Shia govt. that hates them. And now they are going to be bombed, shelled, and starved for the next couple of months.

There are three possible forms of stable govt. in this region;
1. A Sunni fundamentalist religious state such as IS or Saudi Arabia. It can only exist in a Sunni area.

2. A Shia state such as Iran or the current rump version of what was Iraq. It can only exist in a Shia area.

3. A secular state run by an arab nationalist, which keeps the lid on religious tensions within the population. It can encompass mixed areas, including Sunni, Shia, Christian, Yazidi etc. It needs a "strongman" to lead it, maybe a dictator and typically a Baathist with a military background. Saddam Hussein, the Assad family, Nasser of Egypt are all examples.
This is best for the people, but is not acceptable to US/Israeli interests, who prefer the arabs to exist in a state of constant chaos.

There's a fourth and fifth option too:

4. A non-fundamentalist Sunni dominated state - modelled on the situation in Turkey or (de-facto) Kurdistan.

5. An Islamic, but non-fundamentalist and non-sectarian democratic Iraqi constitution and governance that can bring together two fractious groups - it's not as if there haven't been instances of national reconciliation of opposed groupings elsewhere in the past. You don't always need a strong man for this to work.

Brian? · 19-10-2016 3:48pm

recedite wrote: »

There is no solution in sight for the people of Mosul unfortunately, they have been well and truly shafted. The choice is between domination by IS nutcases, or domination by a Shia govt. that hates them. And now they are going to be bombed, shelled, and starved for the next couple of months.

There are three possible forms of stable govt. in this region;
1. A Sunni fundamentalist religious state such as IS or Saudi Arabia. It can only exist in a Sunni area.

2. A Shia state such as Iran or the current rump version of what was Iraq. It can only exist in a Shia area.

3. A secular state run by an arab nationalist, which keeps the lid on religious tensions within the population. It can encompass mixed areas, including Sunni, Shia, Christian, Yazidi etc. It needs a "strongman" to lead it, maybe a dictator and typically a Baathist with a military background. Saddam Hussein, the Assad family, Nasser of Egypt are all examples.
This is best for the people, but is not acceptable to US/Israeli interests, who prefer the arabs to exist in a state of constant chaos.

That's not really a reply to my post.

What should the Iraqi government and its allies do about Mosul?

KingBrian2 · 19-10-2016 4:32pm

alastair wrote: »

There's a fourth and fifth option too:

4. A non-fundamentalist Sunni dominated state - modelled on the situation in Turkey or (de-facto) Kurdistan.

5. An Islamic, but non-fundamentalist and non-sectarian democratic Iraqi constitution and governance that can bring together two fractious groups - it's not as if there haven't been instances of national reconciliation of opposed groupings elsewhere in the past. You don't always need a strong man for this to work.

A big problem with that the Kurds are sunni and the Wahhabi Sunni don't like them either. Turkey has been backing the extreme sunnis against the Kurds for decades while the Syrian gvt have had an alliance with them. The Turks are not suddenly going to turn their back are the fundamentalists they have been enlisting.

alastair · 19-10-2016 5:03pm

KingBrian2 wrote: »

A big problem with that the Kurds are sunni and the Wahhabi Sunni don't like them either. Turkey has been backing the extreme sunnis against the Kurds for decades while the Syrian gvt have had an alliance with them. The Turks are not suddenly going to turn their back are the fundamentalists they have been enlisting.

There are sod all Wahhabist Sunnis outside the Gulf. If you mean Salafist Sunnis, then they only comprise a tiny minority in Iraq. Turkey has no input into whatever arrangement Iraq might opt for down the line.

KingBrian2 · 19-10-2016 6:19pm

alastair wrote: »

There are sod all Wahhabist Sunnis outside the Gulf. If you mean Salafist Sunnis, then they only comprise a tiny minority in Iraq. Turkey has no input into whatever arrangement Iraq might opt for down the line.

The Saudi's do have a contingent of forces in the country of Syria and in Iraq battling Iranian influence. The Muslim Brotherhood, Al Nusra, Al Sham are all names of Sunni militias i'm sure the Iranians have their own Shia militia like Al Sadr's group in any case we are witnessing a sectarian war in that region and Turkey has been cosponsoring these groups just like Syria was sponsoring the PKK.

recedite · 19-10-2016 8:57pm

alastair wrote: »

There's a fourth and fifth option too:

4. A non-fundamentalist Sunni dominated state - modelled on the situation in Turkey or (de-facto) Kurdistan.

5. An Islamic, but non-fundamentalist and non-sectarian democratic Iraqi constitution and governance that can bring together two fractious groups - it's not as if there haven't been instances of national reconciliation of opposed groupings elsewhere in the past. You don't always need a strong man for this to work.

Your "Option 4." there is unstable, as shown by the recent coup in Turkey supported by a large section of the army, teachers, universities, police etc..
Many of those people wanted a return to the secular strongman model pioneered by Turkish national hero Ataturk, who was moulded in a similar vein to Nasser, Assad senior, Hussein etc..
Erdogan on the other hand has been moving towards the Sunni fundamentalist state in recent years. Which is not surprising, considering he started off in an Islamist party when he was Mayor of Istanbul, and spent 10 months in prison for inciting religious hatred around that time.

"Option 5" - "Islamic non-fundamentalist" is something of an oxymoron. But lets say something along the lines of Malaysia. Its not possible in the Levant region now because of all the strife that has occurred. They would have to go through a transition phase first, being one of the 3 options I mentioned, and that would have to last a couple of decades while the wounds healed.

recedite · 19-10-2016 9:12pm

Brian? wrote: »

That's not really a reply to my post.

What should the Iraqi government and its allies do about Mosul?

Well, I said there is no solution under the current conditions. If they want to get there, then in the somewhat unhelpful words of the guy giving directions "I wouldn't start from here".

So, what they "should" do now is expel the Iranian backed Shia militias from the country, and also the Americans, and then resign. And then some strongman must appear like a Messiah and unite both Sunnis and Shia under a secular regime against IS.

Alternatively, redraw the borders completely. The Baghdad Shia regime could amalgamate closer with Iran, and then let Turkey annex the Sunni parts of former Syria and Iraq (currently under IS rule) which the Turks are itching to do anyway.

Dohnjoe · 19-10-2016 9:31pm

recedite wrote: »

It shouldn't matter whether there is anyone there to report it, or who is doing the bombing.
Either a bombing campaign in a residential area is a war crime, or it is not.

That's not how the world nor reality works. If it were the case, then any attack on ISIS would be a "war crime", and they would be unstoppable, simply because they mingled with the civilian populace

Personally I'm inclined to think that if the civilians have been warned that the bombs are coming, and have a relatively safe corridor out, then its as acceptable as any aspect of war. This was actually done in both Aleppo and Mosul. At least as far as was practicable, considering some reports of city defenders killing people who were trying to leave.

Compare to say, Hiroshima or Dresden, where non-combatants were given no chance to escape.

Mosul has been invaded and held by ISIS. The forces that want to liberate it have no interest in deliberately targeting the inhabitants

Aleppo on the other hand represents a deliberate targeting of it's inhabitants by a hostile government force (barrel bombs, gas attacks)

The two aren't really comparable

Elmer Blooker · 19-10-2016 9:45pm

Dohnjoe wrote: »

That's not how the world nor reality works. If it were the case, then any attack on ISIS would be a "war crime", and they would be unstoppable, simply because they mingled with the civilian populace

Mosul has been invaded and held by ISIS. The forces that want to liberate it have no interest in deliberately targeting the inhabitants

Aleppo on the other hand represents a deliberate targeting of it's inhabitants by a hostile government force (barrel bombs, gas attacks)

The two aren't really comparable

It's worth mentioning that there are 1.3 million "inhabitants" living in government controlled Aleppo who do not consider THEIR government to be hostile.

recedite · 19-10-2016 9:55pm

Dohnjoe wrote: »

That's not how the world nor reality works. If it were the case, then any attack on ISIS would be a "war crime", and they would be unstoppable, simply because they mingled with the civilian populace

Mosul has been invaded and held by ISIS. The forces that want to liberate it have no interest in deliberately targeting the inhabitants

Aleppo on the other hand represents a deliberate targeting of it's inhabitants by a hostile government force (barrel bombs, gas attacks)

The two aren't really comparable

What can I say... you have fallen for the US propaganda. Hook, line and sinker. Nearly everything you say is completely wrong.

alastair · 19-10-2016 9:56pm

recedite wrote: »

Your "Option 4." there is unstable, as shown by the recent coup in Turkey supported by a large section of the army, teachers, universities, police etc..
Many of those people wanted a return to the secular strongman model pioneered by Turkish national hero Ataturk, who was moulded in a similar vein to Nasser, Assad senior, Hussein etc..
Erdogan on the other hand has been moving towards the Sunni fundamentalist state in recent years. Which is not surprising, considering he started off in an Islamist party when he was Mayor of Istanbul, and spent 10 months in prison for inciting religious hatred around that time.

The attempted coup in Turkey was an abject failure, with little public support. The government there is stable, and retains broad democratic support. Erdogan is certainly a dubious leader, but the county is far from a fundamentalist state.

recedite wrote: »

"Option 5" - "Islamic non-fundamentalist" is something of an oxymoron. But lets say something along the lines of Malaysia. Its not possible in the Levant region now because of all the strife that has occurred. They would have to go through a transition phase first, being one of the 3 options I mentioned, and that would have to last a couple of decades while the wounds healed.

Nothing contradictory about a non-fundamentalist Islamic constitution or government. Nor is it impossible to imagine a post-strife multi-sectartain state in any area - the levant included. What transitionary period did Rwanda go through?

Dohnjoe · 19-10-2016 10:09pm

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

It's worth mentioning that there are 1.3 million "inhabitants" living in government controlled Aleppo who do not consider THEIR government to be hostile.

They don't particularly like either side, but their "government" is deliberately bombing their hospitals/aid centers and often blocking aid to the city (or as we've seen recently deliberately targeting aid convoys). Incendiaries are being dropped, barrel bombs have been used regularly for years, gas has been used - weapons designed to maim and kill indiscriminately. Men, women and children targeted by snipers for years
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-25055956

Dohnjoe · 19-10-2016 10:17pm

recedite wrote: »

What can I say... you have fallen for the US propaganda. Hook, line and sinker. Nearly everything you say is completely wrong.

My points remain unchallenged

They are two different situations. Once Iraqi forces (and their allies) start deliberately bombing and targeting the civilians of Mosul, the hospitals, using indiscriminate weapons.. then it will become somewhat more similar to Aleppo

And even then there are marked differences - Iraq isn't embroiled in a civil war like Syria is

Manic Moran · 19-10-2016 10:23pm

Either a bombing campaign in a residential area is a war crime, or it is not.

This is not correct. Every incident is taken in situation as it presents itself. There is no flat prohibition on a bombing campaign in a residential area, but there are prohibitions on the nature of the strikes. For example, a hundred airstrikes on defined targets in a residential area with precision munitions may be legal whereas a single microlight dropping a single phosphorous hand grenade on a defined target in a residential area would certainly be illegal.

recedite · 20-10-2016 11:24am

alastair wrote: »

The attempted coup in Turkey was an abject failure, with little public support..

It was a close run thing for a while. Afterwards, 21,000 teachers sacked... that looks like a serious attempt to manipulate the education system and re-write history so that in future there is less dissent from Erdogan's version of what Turkey is, and should become.

alastair wrote: »

Nothing contradictory about a non-fundamentalist Islamic constitution or government.

IMO there is. But lets agree to differ on that point, and move on to how you would implement such a govt. in Iraq. Would it be a Shia Islamic State or a Sunni Islamic state? How is either one going to avoid a perpetual civil war?
Iraq, as a country, can only maintain its previous borders under a united secular arab nationalist regime, such as Saddam Hussein's was.

Manic Moran wrote: »

For example, a hundred airstrikes on defined targets in a residential area with precision munitions may be legal whereas a single microlight dropping a single phosphorous hand grenade on a defined target in a residential area would certainly be illegal.

If I was living there, I know I'd choose the single hand grenade.
But in your version of what is legal and what is not, its the people doing the bombing who decide what is legal and what is not

alastair · 20-10-2016 1:19pm

recedite wrote: »

It was a close run thing for a while.

It really wasn't.

recedite wrote: »

Afterwards, 21,000 teachers sacked... that looks like a serious attempt to manipulate the education system and re-write history so that in future there is less dissent from Erdogan's version of what Turkey is, and should become.

How does any of that speak to the actual support for the coup attempt? It certainly speaks to Erdogan's strategy of leveraging greater advantage out of the coup attempt, but nothing more.

recedite wrote: »

IMO there is. But lets agree to differ on that point, and move on to how you would implement such a govt. in Iraq. Would it be a Shia Islamic State or a Sunni Islamic state?

Neither. Simply an Islamic state. You frame the constitution around common principles of the Koran, and ensure any sectarian distinctions are kept outside the remit of governance.

recedite wrote: »

How is either one going to avoid a perpetual civil war?

By not fighting. Same as Rwanda avoids perpetual civil war.

recedite wrote: »

Iraq, as a country, can only maintain its previous borders under a united secular arab nationalist regime, such as Saddam Hussein's was.

Or any other model of state that all Iraqis can subscribe to.

Cheerful Spring · 20-10-2016 1:34pm

Hilary said shes will support a no fly zone over Syria when she spoke last night. So War is highly likely with the Russians if she fails to negotiate with them and agree.

Elmer Blooker · 20-10-2016 2:30pm

Manic Moran wrote: »

This is not correct. Every incident is taken in situation as it presents itself. There is no flat prohibition on a bombing campaign in a residential area, but there are prohibitions on the nature of the strikes. For example, a hundred airstrikes on defined targets in a residential area with precision munitions may be legal whereas a single microlight dropping a single phosphorous hand grenade on a defined target in a residential area would certainly be illegal.

Personally I have no time for .... the good guys use precision munitions and carry out surgical strikes while the bad guys use crude "bunker busters"
No one ever asks who or what is in these "bunkers" in Aleppo.
* I'm aware you made no mention of surgical strikes.

recedite · 20-10-2016 5:08pm

Cheerful Spring wrote: »

Hilary said shes will support a no fly zone over Syria when she spoke last night. So War is highly likely with the Russians if she fails to negotiate with them and agree.

I noticed her saying that alright. Its just another example of her saying something she thinks will play well with the electorate, while knowing full well it cannot happen.
But that's why so many Americans really don't like her; they can't trust that what she says is the same as what she is actually thinking.

recedite · 20-10-2016 5:21pm

alastair wrote: »

Neither. Simply an Islamic state. You frame the constitution around common principles of the Koran, and ensure any sectarian distinctions are kept outside the remit of governance.

The different imams would argue over the interpretation of Sharia principles, but it might work if you reduced down to such basic principles that it was almost secular.
But then it would be an Islamic state only in the same sense that EU countries are Christian states.
The current Shia regime would still have to resign, and send Shia militias home or disband them. Even with all that done, history tells us that a western style democracy (even with an Islamic flavoured constitution) is unlikely to last long in that region, given the endemic tribal and religious tensions.

KingBrian2 · 20-10-2016 6:06pm

recedite wrote: »

Well, I said there is no solution under the current conditions. If they want to get there, then in the somewhat unhelpful words of the guy giving directions "I wouldn't start from here".

So, what they "should" do now is expel the Iranian backed Shia militias from the country, and also the Americans, and then resign. And then some strongman must appear like a Messiah and unite both Sunnis and Shia under a secular regime against IS.

Alternatively, redraw the borders completely. The Baghdad Shia regime could amalgamate closer with Iran, and then let Turkey annex the Sunni parts of former Syria and Iraq (currently under IS rule) which the Turks are itching to do anyway.

I believe the residents of Syria and Iraq currently under ISIS rule would want a say on that rather than foreign overseers. Unlike Turkey or Iran the Syrian and Iraqi gvt's have the responsibility to defend their citizens.

The difference between Aleppo and Mosul?

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