UK Votes to leave EU

FrancieBrady · 16-10-2016 10:20AM

FA Hayek wrote: »

Yes, that is great.

Now answer my question. If Irish Republicans cared so much for innocent life why did they plant bombs in Shopping malls on a busy Saturday.

I have answered that a number of times. It is completely off topic.

maryishere · 16-10-2016 10:25AM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I have answered that a number of times.

Indeed you have not, but you have no problem waffling on about other matters.

FA Hayek · 16-10-2016 10:26AM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I have answered that a number of times. It is completely off topic.

Sorry but you have not.

16-10-2016 10:30AM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I have answered that a number of times. It is completely off topic.

If people stopped dragging up recent history, then these questions won't be asked!
Brexit is about the near future, not the recent past.
In reality, there are just too many variables in play to have any real way of of knowing the mid to long term outcome.

FrancieBrady · 16-10-2016 10:30AM

Post 9513 and elaborated on, when i was asked yet again in post 9517 and again in 9520

maryishere wrote:

You have not answered the question. If the PIRA cared so much for innocent life, why did they plant bombs in Shopping Malls on busy Saturday afternoons?

FrancieBrady wrote:

To spread terror, the same reason you bomb cities from the air. Churchill knew about it.
It's terrible and I couldn't order it, but many have. Want a list?

FrancieBrady · 16-10-2016 10:38AM

Deleted User wrote: »

If people stopped dragging up recent history, then these questions won't be asked!
Brexit is about the near future, not the recent past.
In reality, there are just too many variables in play to have any real way of of knowing the mid to long term outcome.

I am not the subject of the thread, nor is the conflict/war here. I am not going down the familiar route that Maryishere wants to go.

And we are seeing the start of the predicted outcome of Brexit, the collapse of sterling/job losses/ firms indicating they are leaving/and exporters here having difficulties.

FrancieBrady · 16-10-2016 10:52AM

More hands required for the rearguard pump. The Scots are getting restless again. Can the Union hold as sterling plummets and jobs and companies begin to evaporate?

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-37634338

maryishere · 16-10-2016 10:53AM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I am not the subject of the thread, nor is the conflict/war here.

Well, we have established that the PIRA who you approved of had the aim of " spreading terror" when they bombed shopping centres etc, and they were in fact terrorists. A terrorist is "A person who uses unlawful violence and intimidation, especially against civilians, in the pursuit of political aims."
https://en.oxforddictionaries.com/definition/terrorist
The PIRA / INLA who also mounted attacks / killed people in N. Ireland, Britain, Holland, here in the Republic etc were acting unlawfully, were not the armed force of any state and did not follow the rules of the Geneva convention, so they were in fact terrorists.

FrancieBrady wrote: »

And we are seeing the start of the predicted outcome of Brexit, the collapse of sterling/job losses/ firms indicating they are leaving/and exporters here having difficulties.

Sterling is back to where is should have been all along. The euro and stg were actually closer to parity some time ago than they are now. And the British do not have a duty of care to our own exporters ahead of their own exporters : their own exporters are having a recovery after the Brexit referendum. The UK is not having a collapse of jobs either: unemployment there is less than half the EU average, and has been for some years.
In N. Ireland hotel and supermarket car parks all starting to get lots of customers from the Republic again, leading to many businesses in N. Ireland taking on more staff since the referendum.
If the government here was serious in creating jobs, they should at least reduce the standard vat to the UK rate.

steddyeddy · 16-10-2016 10:56AM

FA Hayek wrote: »

Yes, that is great.

Now answer my question. If Irish Republicans cared so much for innocent life why did they plant bombs in Shopping malls on a busy Saturday.

No armed force in northern Ireland acted in a way which protected innocent life.

16-10-2016 11:04AM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

And we are seeing the start of the predicted outcome of Brexit, the collapse of sterling/job losses/ firms indicating they are leaving/and exporters here having difficulties.

Predicted outcome of the result of the referendum, yes.
No one likes uncertainty, but the actual brexit process hasn't even started yet, where will the UK (& Ireland) be after the dust has settled, that is the real issue.
European countries are no longer manufacturing powerhouses that they were when the EEC was formed in the 1960s, most mass producers of consumer goods are now in the far East.
Stuff made in Britain will be a lot cheaper to buy in the Eurozone in the short term and that will have an affect on EU producers of those products.

People in Britain may look to "Buy British" more and this will also adversely affect Irish producers.

Key point is that if Britain sinks, it'll drag Ireland down with it.

FrancieBrady · 16-10-2016 11:06AM

maryishere wrote:

Sterling is back to where is should have been all along. The euro and stg were actually closer to parity some time ago than they are now. And the British do not have a duty of care to our own exporters ahead of their own exporters : their own exporters are having a recovery after the Brexit referendum.

A predicted high as sterling slumps but read beyond the headlines and you will see manufacturers saying that they are bleak about the future should Brexit happen.

maryishere · 16-10-2016 11:10AM

steddyeddy wrote: »

No armed force in northern Ireland acted in a way which protected innocent life.

Yes they did : many times bombs were stopped getting to their destinations for example : they were acts which protected innocent lives.

maryishere · 16-10-2016 11:11AM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Can the Union hold as sterling plummets and jobs and companies begin to evaporate?

The Spanish have said that if Scotland leaves the UK they will not be allowed in to the EU. I guess they have the Basque people in the western Pyrenees that straddles the border between France and Spain on the Atlantic coast seeking independence too, and youth unemployment in Spain is about 50% . In the Basque region it is even higher, as they do not have tourism in great numbers from the UK or elsewhere. ( The UK are the biggest single group of tourists to Spain ). Its only a matter of time before the EU dis-integrates - Germany cannot handle the PIGS debt by itself.

If the UK economy suffers, or the UK breaks up, it will negatively affect us here too, as previous posters have pointed out. United they stand, divided they fall. Spain knows if it breaks up, it will fall further too.

16-10-2016 11:12AM

maryishere wrote: »

Sterling is back to where is should have been all along. The euro and stg were actually closer to parity some time ago than they are now.

Since the formation or the ERM, the Euro's father, the Sterling rate has varied quite wildly over the past 20 years or so. Ranging from about €1.70 down to €1.05 to the pound, so it hasn't broken any records there. Against the USD is a different story near rock bottom now.

The worlds top casino is betting against Sterling right now, once there is a plan, they'll buy back at much less than they sold for and make a fortune.

steddyeddy · 16-10-2016 11:21AM

I'm on phone so excuse the link. An unpublised article from Boris Johnson talking about the benefits of the EU. I wonder will Boris pay for this at all?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/oct/16/secret-boris-johnson-column-favoured-uk-remaining-in-eu?CMP=fb_gu

A Dub in Glasgo · 16-10-2016 11:34AM

maryishere wrote: »

The Spanish have said that if Scotland leaves the UK they will not be allowed in to the EU.

They have not

steddyeddy · 16-10-2016 11:35AM

Here's what Boris Johnson wrote about the EU in an unpublished article. The leave voters should feel really really stupid now.

Boris Johnson has said Britain’s continued membership of the EU would be a “boon for the world and for Europe” in an unpublished newspaper column in which he wrestles with his decision to back or oppose Brexit.

In a Telegraph article, written days before a published version in which he backed leaving, the foreign secretary wrote of the EU: “This is a market on our doorstep, ready for further exploitation by British firms. The membership fee seems rather small for all that access. Why are we so determined to turn our back on it?”

Anita Blow · 16-10-2016 11:43AM

maryishere wrote: »

Sterling is back to where is should have been all along. The euro and stg were actually closer to parity some time ago than they are now. And the British do not have a duty of care to our own exporters ahead of their own exporters : their own exporters are having a recovery after the Brexit referendum. The UK is not having a collapse of jobs either: unemployment there is less than half the EU average, and has been for some years.
In N. Ireland hotel and supermarket car parks all starting to get lots of customers from the Republic again, leading to many businesses in N. Ireland taking on more staff since the referendum.
If the government here was serious in creating jobs, they should at least reduce the standard vat to the UK rate.

When? When was the pound traditionally closer to Euro in value? Was it in 2002 where a pound was worth 1.58? 2004 when it was worth 1.50? 2008 when it was worth 1.34? In fact the only time in history the pound has been lower than it is now was in December 2008, in the depths of the global recession.
Do you have any figures to back up your post-brexit recovery for exporters? Because it's incorrect. The volume of British exports is actually lower today than it was before the Brexit vote, while the cost of production of their exports has risen 10% this year alone due to the fluctuating currency.

As The Economist noted in its article this week, a sudden shift in the value of a currency benefits almost nobody because there is no accompanying adjustment in wages to compensate. The average weekly earnings in the UK is 4% lower than it was in 2007 (but hey, stellar unemployment rate amirite) and wages are now stagnant. Thanks to the fall in the currency value, inflation looks set to breach 3% but the stagnant wages (and the fact that employers aren't likely to be offering any pay rises anytime soon) means that real wages for the average Briton are going to fall even further below their 2007 levels.

As someone with family in NI (only just back today), I can assure you they do not share your optimism. ROI takes up >40% of NI's exports but accounts for only <2% of ours. The pain of a weak sterling is most certainly going to be felt on one side of the border more than the other.

FrancieBrady · 16-10-2016 12:01PM

maryishere wrote: »

The Spanish have said that if Scotland leaves the UK they will not be allowed in to the EU. I guess they have the Basque people in the western Pyrenees that straddles the border between France and Spain on the Atlantic coast seeking independence too, and youth unemployment in Spain is about 50% . In the Basque region it is even higher, as they do not have tourism in great numbers from the UK or elsewhere. ( The UK are the biggest single group of tourists to Spain ). Its only a matter of time before the EU dis-integrates - Germany cannot handle the PIGS debt by itself.

If the UK economy suffers, or the UK breaks up, it will negatively affect us here too, as previous posters have pointed out. United they stand, divided they fall. Spain knows if it breaks up, it will fall further too.

Again, you run away with the facts.
Spain have said, Scotland does not have the competence to negotiate with the EU, as long as the UK exists.

Exit Scotland from the UK and there is a new game in town and we don't know what can be negotiated.

If any Spanish Prime Minister has vowed to veto an independent Scottish application to join the EU please post the quote, because I have never seen anything but guesswork by a desperate pro Union media.

FrancieBrady · 16-10-2016 12:05PM

Anita Blow wrote: »

When? When was the pound traditionally closer to Euro in value? Was it in 2002 where a pound was worth 1.58? 2004 when it was worth 1.50? 2008 when it was worth 1.34? In fact the only time in history the pound has been lower than it is now was in December 2008, in the depths of the global recession.
Do you have any figures to back up your post-brexit recovery for exporters? Because it's incorrect. The volume of British exports is actually lower today than it was before the Brexit vote, while the cost of production of their exports has risen 10% this year alone due to the fluctuating currency.

As The Economist noted in its article this week, a sudden shift in the value of a currency benefits almost nobody because there is no accompanying adjustment in wages to compensate. The average weekly earnings in the UK is 4% lower than it was in 2007 (but hey, stellar unemployment rate amirite) and wages are now stagnant. Thanks to the fall in the currency value, inflation looks set to breach 3% but the stagnant wages (and the fact that employers aren't likely to be offering any pay rises anytime soon) means that real wages for the average Briton are going to fall even further below their 2007 levels.

As someone with family in NI (only just back today), I can assure you they do not share your optimism. ROI takes up >40% of NI's exports but accounts for only <2% of ours. The pain of a weak sterling is most certainly going to be felt on one side of the border more than the other.

Not to mention what will happen in farming. If some, like mary are deluded/fooled by the rhetoric that Westminster is going to replace what comes from Europe then hell rub it up them when it goes tits up.
Westminster is hell bent on slashing the subvention and is doing it as we speak.

16-10-2016 12:12PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Again, you run away with the facts.
Spain have said, Scotland does not have the competence to negotiate with the EU, as long as the UK exists.

Exit Scotland from the UK and there is a new game in town and we don't know what can be negotiated.

If any Spanish Prime Minister has vowed to veto an independent Scottish application to join the EU please post the quote, because I have never seen anything but guesswork by a desperate pro Union media.

https://www.ft.com/content/33de1fbc-3dfb-11e6-8716-a4a71e8140b0
Even though he never specifically stated that he would veto, he did say he wouldn't negotiate. In other words, he would kill the application before it starts.

“If the United Kingdom leaves [the EU], so does Scotland,” Mr Rajoy told a press conference in Brussels on Tuesday. “Scotland has no competences to negotiate with the EU. The Spanish government rejects any negotiation with anyone other than the United Kingdom.”

FrancieBrady · 16-10-2016 12:18PM

Just to expand on the Spanish position for those who haven't educated themselves on it.

The reason the Spanish government are against Catalan independence is because they believe what the Spanish constitution states - that Spain is 'una e indivisible'.
A Catalan independence referendum would therefore be unconstitutional.
It is the reason Spain refuses to recognise Kosovo, because it contravenes the Serbian constitution.

A Scottish independence referendum is NOT unconstitutional and would therefore pose no problem for the Spanish who can still claim what they have always claimed.

16-10-2016 12:23PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Just to expand on the Spanish position for those who haven't educated themselves on it.

The reason the Spanish government are against Catalan independence is because they believe what the Spanish constitution states - that Spain is 'una e indivisible'.
A Catalan independence referendum would therefore be unconstitutional.
It is the reason Spain refuses to recognise Kosovo, because it contravenes the Serbian constitution.

A Scottish independence referendum is NOT unconstitutional and would therefore pose no problem for the Spanish who can still claim what they have always claimed.

That they will refuse to negotiate EU membership with an independent Scotland, yes.

FrancieBrady · 16-10-2016 12:24PM

Deleted User wrote: »

https://www.ft.com/content/33de1fbc-3dfb-11e6-8716-a4a71e8140b0
Even though he never specifically stated that he would veto, he did say he wouldn't negotiate. In other words, he would kill the application before it starts.

That is exactly what I said.
Scotland has no competence to negotiate with the EU as long as it is a member of the UK. That stands to reason.

FrancieBrady · 16-10-2016 12:24PM

Deleted User wrote: »

That they will refuse to negotiate EU membership with an independent Scotland, yes.

Where did they say that?

GreenFolder2 · 16-10-2016 12:27PM

Deleted User wrote: »

That they will refuse to negotiate EU membership with an independent Scotland, yes.

I'm not sure if that could be overriden by Qualified Majority Voting (QMV)

It could certainly be made clear that blocking it could result in other countries looking unfavourably at Spain's economic situation though. It's dependent on the EU allowing certain rules to slide to allow it to run outside certain rules at the moment.

Spain is very much dependent on the rest of the EU being quite flexible and friendly. If they became super hostile to Scotland I could see a lot of smaller countries seeing them as nothing more than a big bully and demanding much harsher lines be taken on fiscal rules.

steddyeddy · 16-10-2016 12:28PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

https://www.ft.com/content/33de1fbc-3dfb-11e6-8716-a4a71e8140b0
Even though he never specifically stated that he would veto, he did say he wouldn't negotiate. In other words, he would kill the application before it starts.

That's if Scotland remains in the UK. It should leave and negotiate entry.

GreenFolder2 · 16-10-2016 12:30PM

Considering Scotland would already have most of the EU directives in place and so on, I wouldn't really see how joining the EU would be a massively cumbersome process.

It would be completely reasonable to fast track it.

Also, Scottish people are already EU citizens. So, that could be quite complicated. They would be just opting not to drop their EU citizenship by leaving the UK, which is a huge demonstration of solidarity to the concept of an EU in the first place.

If anything the EU should be bending over backwards to facilitate them.

steddyeddy · 16-10-2016 12:34PM

I think Scotland wants to be seen as less little Englander than England too.

16-10-2016 12:35PM

steddyeddy wrote: »

That's if Scotland remains in the UK. It should leave and negotiate entry.

Right from the start, could take many years to regain membership with the risk of Spain vetoing any such application.

UK Votes to leave EU

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