2016 U.S. Presidential Race Megathread Mark 2.

BorneTobyWilde · 11-10-2016 10:53PM

Americans love big meals and thick cheese slices but I still believe that Trump can make
America grate again.

oik · 11-10-2016 10:54PM

Feline Grabber wrote: »

Trump is at it again, a coincidence where he parroted info from Russia. Didn't he fire the guy being paid by Russia or is he around in another role? Trump's campaign really need to find info from somewhere other than browsing Russian and white supremacist sources (not that they are mutually exclusive)
edition.cnn.com/videos/politics/2016/10/11/kurt-eichenwald-benghazi-article-russia-donald-trump-intv-newday.cnn

Eichenwald is a dishonest Clinton shill spreading unsubstantiated lies about Wikileaks authenticity.

https://theintercept.com/2016/10/11/in-the-democratic-echo-chamber-inconvenient-truths-are-recast-as-putin-plots/

Overheal · 11-10-2016 10:55PM

ECO_Mental wrote: »

Did anybody see Ben Carson just on CNN trying to defend the Trump .....OMG.....car crash tv unbelivable. He was talking to a woman host and he was just digging and digging holes for him self. For example to the woman host

Carson "its your fault for not hearing any of this locker room talk before"

carson" i hear that type of talk all the time"

Host " where do hear this"

Carson " emmm emm emmm!!!!"

I though he was going to get up and walk out because that was the only option for him, and he should have.

The host was almost laughing at first at the stupidity but when he blamed "her" for not hearing that type of talk before, for not him being in the studio and in a video link i think she would have hit him!

This is the problem now for the Donald and i can see where Paul Ryan is comming from, there is no defending the remarks and if you do you will be seen to be complacient and it will ruin your career...

Here's the clip from earlier

http://www.mediaite.com/online/ben-carson-tells-cnns-brianna-keilar-she-hasnt-heard-enough-crude-sexual-talk/

Look how much older he is without the Rogaine

Black Swan · 11-10-2016 11:17PM

Trump Titanic is a metaphor I've encountered surfing the web, referring to last Friday's groping tape disclosure. I wonder if there is any merit to this metaphor? Such metacognitive devices are often used to foster discussion (see Gareth Morgan, Images of Organisation, 1998). You decide its value.

Trump Titanic was at flank speed, the largest and most impressively built ship of its day, surpassing all others, but with serious design flaws. Then Trump Titanic unexpectedly hit Groping Iceberg, coming to a sudden stop. Many GOPs sent SOS, and manned lifeboats, along with suburban college women fleeing to the boats, while holding their children's ears from hearing the horrific "groping" sounds of Trump Titanic's bulkheads breaking away. Captain Trump cried "Don't abandon ship, we won't sink! 100% safe!" while the Trumpeters continued to play on a deck that began to list and break apart. The few GOPs that stayed aboard with Captain Trump cried for the lifeboats to return, but too late, as the ship slowly upended and began to slip below the surface. Remaining GOPs and Captain Trump clinging to each other jumped into the ocean only to be eaten by Stop Trump GOP sharks and Clinton killer whales, or slowly turning to ice by the groper chilled voter waters, disappearing 8 November 2016.

Itssoeasy · 11-10-2016 11:21PM

I've seen a clip from Fox News last night where mike huckerbee used jaws as an analogy to the election where he said quint was the guy who killed the shark.

Megyn Kelly to be honest took pleasure telling him that quint died and didn't live.

Also apparently Megyn Kelly's contract with Fox News is up next year and I get the impression she has decided F it and isn't sticking to the script.

BorneTobyWilde · 11-10-2016 11:34PM

Tape is old news now.
No one cares
He really is amazing at changing subject

Billy86 · 11-10-2016 11:40PM

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Tape is old news now.
No one cares
He really is amazing at changing subject

Damning as they are now, let's see how these guys look at the end of the week.

Itssoeasy · 11-10-2016 11:42PM

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Tape is old news now.
No one cares
He really is amazing at changing subject

Ah the speaker of the us House of Representatives seems to care and he's a high ranking member of the GOP.

Also a good strategy for trump supporters would be to stop going on news channels and trying to defend the tape as I've seen at least three where the person is doing more harm than good.

Quin_Dub · 11-10-2016 11:48PM

GOP in Serious trouble...

House Democrats believe Trump troubles give them real shot at retaking majority

Fresh internal polls conducted by the DCCC — the House Democrats’ campaign arm — after the second presidential debate on Sunday night painted a grim picture for Republican lawmakers.

They show that Republicans — who started moving en masse against Trump after the revelations in the videotape — faced a backlash regardless of whether they continued to support Trump or not. On Monday, House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) told his colleagues in a conference call that he will no longer campaign for or defend Trump in public, but did not entirely rescind his support for the GOP presidential nominee.

Democrats think that Republicans are now stuck in the impossible position of either embracing their party’s presidential nominee and alienating swing voters critical to maintaining their hold on Congress or rejecting him and angering their base.

While a generic ballot tests shows a Democrat up by 7 points over any Republican lawmaker, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s poll — conducted nationwide by the Global Strategy Group — shows the Democratic candidate has a 12-point edge if the Republican recently withdrew their support from Trump. If a Republican lawmaker continues to support Trump, the private polling shows they are at a similar 12-point deficit.

Whilst the polls are conducted by the Democrats and as such taken with a grain of salt everything that's out there suggests that Trump intends to continue to lash out at everyone and anyone he feels are disrespecting him and that can only have a negative impact on the GOP all round...

Black Swan · 12-10-2016 12:01AM

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Tape is old news now.
No one cares

It's not over yet. The Trump groping tapes were THE infamous sensation during yesterday's (Monday 10 October 2016) daily telly talk shows (e.g., The View, etc.), many with women strongly condemning Donald Trump. Seth Meyers did a grand and humourous Closer Look, as did SNL with Baldwin impersonating Trump, and Stephen Colbert's Home Edition Late Show, who also introduced his co-host (a pussycat). Donald Trump has turned into THE comic-tragedy character of this presidential election cycle per America's most noted comedians. How can anyone take Trump seriously anymore?

oik · 12-10-2016 12:03AM

Black Swan wrote: »

It's not over yet. The Trump groping tapes were THE infamous sensation during yesterday's (Monday 10 October 2016) daily telly talk shows (e.g., The View, etc.), many with women strongly condemning Donald Trump. Seph Meyers did a grand and humourous Closer Look, as did SNL with Baldwin impersonating Trump, and Stephen Colbert's Home Edition Late Show, who also introduced his co-host (a pussycat). Donald Trump has turned into THE comic-tragedy character of this presidential election cycle per America's most noted comedians. How can anyone take Trump seriously anymore?

Trump was already a figure of ridicule.

Viewers of those shows have already been exposed to nothing but anti-Trump messaging.

Black Swan · 12-10-2016 12:38AM

oik wrote: »

Trump was already a figure of ridicule.

Viewers of those shows have already been exposed to nothing but anti-Trump messaging.

Perhaps the same can be said of Americans now replying (or soon to reply) to the national and state polls since the Friday 7 October 2016 Trump groping tapes? Or the dozens of REPUBLICAN Senators, House Representatives, and Governors un-endorsing Donald Trump since Friday, or the currently highest elected Republican (only 2 heartbeats from the presidency) Speaker of the House Paul Ryan un-inviting Donald Trump from last Saturday's Wisconsin rally? Are they now "anti-Trump" messaging too?

oik · 12-10-2016 12:57AM

Black Swan wrote: »

Perhaps the same can be said of Americans now replying (or soon to reply) to the national and state polls since the Friday 7 October 2016 Trump groping tapes? Or the dozens of REPUBLICAN Senators, House Representatives, and Governors un-endorsing Donald Trump since Friday, or the currently highest elected Republican (only 2 heartbeats from the presidency) Speaker of the House Paul Ryan un-inviting Donald Trump from last Saturday's Wisconsin rally? Are they now "anti-Trump" messaging too?

I think you're confused about what I meant by anti-Trump messaging.

I meant that these outlets are consistently anti-Trump and have been having a go at him since he got the nomination at least.

They're not likely to influence anyone outside of their viewership which is already anti-Trump.

BorneTobyWilde · 12-10-2016 01:23AM

IN polls there are so many people who will not admit to voting for Trump, they secretly will vote for him. I know many decent people who will not show any public support but will vote for him and want him to win. I'm sure McCain will also vote for him.
Polls are false because of this aspect of it .

BorneTobyWilde · 12-10-2016 01:28AM

Rally in Florida is massive. I can understand how Trump doesn't believe the polls.

Feline Grabber · 12-10-2016 02:31AM

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Rally in Florida is massive. I can understand how Trump doesn't believe the polls.

Rally numbers only come into it when the yard sign count ends in a draw.

Black Swan · 12-10-2016 04:01AM

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

IN polls there are so many people who will not admit to voting for Trump, they secretly will vote for him. I know many decent people who will not show any public support but will vote for him and want him to win. I'm sure McCain will also vote for him.
Polls are false because of this aspect of it .

Is there any empirical support for these observations, or just anecdotal, subjective tiny convenience sample observations by you and your friends? If anecdotal, then using similar anecdotal rationale there also could be many women in Republican families whose fathers and husbands expect their daughters and wives to vote Republican, but after the disgusting Donald Trump groping tapes, may secretly vote against Trump when in the polling booth by themselves, and without daddy or hubby looking over her shoulders? It should be noted that there were approximately 10 million more women voters in presidential election 2012 than men. Something to worry about after the Donald Trump lewd and profane groping tapes so near to 8 November 2016, especially when early voting has already begun in half of the 50 states? May the "silent majority" of women voters defeat this disgusting and totally unqualified candidate (ZERO experience in governance, US diplomacy, and preparation to be CIC, who is currently a defendant in New York and California in US District Courts for alleged "fraud, racketeering, and corruption" for failed Trump University).

Manic Moran · 12-10-2016 05:15AM

It's called the Bradley Effect
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradley_effect

For Trump specifically, see http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/11/opinion/campaign-stops/how-many-people-support-trump-but-dont-want-to-admit-it.html?_r=0

Trent Houseboat · 12-10-2016 07:59AM

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Rally in Florida is massive. I can understand how Trump doesn't believe the polls.

Do his supporters think he's doing better now? No only are the polls wrong, but they're directly inverse to his popularity?
Is it not more likely that its a Cult of personality, and his recent actions have whipped up fervor among those who already supported him?

Black Swan · 12-10-2016 08:08AM

Trent Houseboat wrote: »

Do his supporters think he's doing better now? No only are the polls wrong, but they're directly inverse to his popularity?
Is it not more likely that its a Cult of personality, and his recent actions have whipped up fervor among those who already supported him?

This 2016 presidential election cycle will be studied for years, which, if you are a social, behavioural, psychological, or political science PhD student or scholar across the pond, it's grand news, because the grant RFPs will fund such research, more than typical election cycles.

Black Swan · 12-10-2016 08:43AM

Manic Moran wrote: »

It's called the Bradley Effect

It's called social desirability bias, but whom is understated and whom is overstated? Both have been polled as being very undesirable, Clinton and Trump, so you can flip a coin at this stage if social desirability bias is in some way affecting either Clinton or Trump. No one knows, as there is no empirical evidence to suggest, explain or predict at this moment in time if such bias exists.

Of course Trump supporters will reach for hope and proclaim that social desirability bias has been understating Trump in polls, because they have been mostly under Clinton since the DNC late July 2016. It could be just as likely that, although Clinton has been generally 2 or 3 points ahead of Trump, her national polls could have been understated due to social desirability bias, and when 8 November 2016 arrives she will win by an absolute landslide.

aloyisious · 12-10-2016 09:09AM

If Don loses, it'll be a massive "social experiment" failure by the Republican Party where it decided not to run one of it's own experienced sons and put up a tyro, probably a first for the US.

Zubeneschamali · 12-10-2016 09:25AM

aloyisious wrote: »

If Don loses, it'll be a massive "social experiment" failure by the Republican Party

Fortunately, we can count on them to learn from this. After all, what did they learn from Mitt Romney's loss?

Don't nominate a super-rich old white guy!

gosplan · 12-10-2016 10:00AM

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

IN polls there are so many people who will not admit to voting for Trump, they secretly will vote for him. I know many decent people who will not show any public support but will vote for him and want him to win. I'm sure McCain will also vote for him.
Polls are false because of this aspect of it .

So the polls are wrong because people you know (are you in Ireland) are closet Trump fans but would tell you but not an anonomyous person over the phone?

Akrasia · 12-10-2016 10:10AM

Individual polls are subject to error, but the prepondernace of evidence from a large number of independently conducted polls shows that Trump is rapidly losing support.

Polls don't predict election results, they just measure how people feel on the day they are polled. if Clinton is leading by 8% at the moment, 4% of voters need to switch to Trump to wipe out that lead. Or, Turnout amongst Clinton voters might be reduced because they think the race is already over, and they never really liked Clinton that much anyway, so they might save themselves the psychological pain of voting for a candidate they don't agree with.

The chances of Trump winning is very low, but its still not zero.

Nody · 12-10-2016 11:11AM

aloyisious wrote: »

If Don loses, it'll be a massive "social experiment" failure by the Republican Party where it decided not to run one of it's own experienced sons and put up a tyro, probably a first for the US.

There were no experiment about it; it simply highlighted the flaw in the system (used by both sides) in electing their presidential candidate. In both cases they need to pander to the hardcore fringe groups to get chosen only to scramble back to the middle to actually get elected by the voter base that matters (while throwing out enough bones to the fringe to still get them to show up in acceptable numbers).

TheDoctor · 12-10-2016 12:14PM

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Rally in Florida is massive. I can understand how Trump doesn't believe the polls.

I remember how no right wingers believed the polls in 2012 either.

Watching Fox meltdown when Obama reached 270 was some of the best television in years.

Trent Houseboat · 12-10-2016 12:17PM

Karl Rove rejecting reality was a good laugh alright.

RobertKK · 12-10-2016 12:29PM

I see in one of the Podesta released emails that Hillary's communication director along with a left leaning think tank had a go at Catholics, interesting thing is this is john Podesta emails as he was included to receive the emails, but he did not respond - Podesta is a Catholic btw so probably was not happy with the correspondence and so didn't reply.

The emails in questions:

John Halpin of the Center for American progress:
"Ken Auletta's latest piece on Murdoch in the New Yorker starts off with the aside that both Murdoch and Robert Thompson, managing editor of the WSJ, are raising their kids Catholic. Friggin' Murdoch baptized his kids in Jordan where John the Baptist baptized Jesus,"
"Many of the most powerful elements of the conservative movement are all Catholic (many converts) from the SC and think tanks to the media and social groups. It's an amazing bastardization of the faith. They must be attracted to the systematic thought and severely backwards gender relations and must be totally unaware of Christian democracy,"

Jennifer Palmieri who is Hillary's communication director replied:
"I imagine they think it is the most socially acceptable politically conservative religion. Their rich friends wouldn't understand if they became evangelicals."

So far the Democrats have done nothing to distance themselves from this, despite polls showing that Catholics will vote more for Hillary than Trump.

Polls show the Catholic vote as following:
Hillary 55%
Trump 34%

Trump has not brought it up, but if he is clever he will at some point.

Catholics make up 1/5th of the American population.

Trent Houseboat · 12-10-2016 12:40PM

You might be barking up the wrong tree there Robert. I think Trump has white Catholics sewn up. His problem is that most Catholics in the US are Hispanic. And he doesn't stand a chance of if winning them over, no matter how many stages taco eating photos he takes.

2016 U.S. Presidential Race Megathread Mark 2.

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