UK Votes to leave EU

Nate--IRL-- · 10-10-2016 08:07PM

Fratton Fred wrote: »

They both need to be careful. The eu intentionally damaging the UK (as much as some on here would like to see it) does no one any favours.

It may be the least worst option for the EU though.

Nate

Fratton Fred · 10-10-2016 08:10PM

Nate--IRL-- wrote: »

It may be the least worst option for the EU though.

Nate

Does the eu protect the eu at all costs, or take the interests of its citizens in to consideration?

FrancieBrady · 10-10-2016 08:12PM

Fratton Fred wrote: »

They both need to be careful. The eu intentionally damaging the UK (as much as some on here would like to see it) does no one any favours.

If you could stop playing the victim for a moment it might become obvious that the EU has no choices here. It will protect itself.
The UK have messed up here, that's the bottom line. It's superiority complex has landed it here.
Nothing to do with the EU or fictitious people who want to see them suffer for brexiting. They will inflict major pain and regression here.

Nate--IRL-- · 10-10-2016 08:13PM

Fratton Fred wrote: »

Does the eu protect the eu at all costs, or take the interests of its citizens in to consideration?

Good question - I suspect we won't know for sure until the negotiations get underway.

Nate

karma_ · 10-10-2016 08:13PM

Fratton Fred wrote: »

So what's the alternative?

Ignore democracy because it's not given the answer we hoped for, or bend over and take it up the Gary Glitter?

I have a lot of sympathy for Theresa May, she could be a very good PM, but has picked up a poisoned chalice.

Ignore it no? However keep in mind that, now that the absolute clusterfúck that it's clear that brexit was, as well as being run by clowns who had no idea what they were doing all along, then I would make a heavy bet that a new referendum would be hugely in favour of remain. Is that democracy?

However there's no point in complaining about doom merchants here, this was totally self-inflicted by British nationalists, it's just hugely ironic that's what will have finally killed the Union. If you need someone to be angry at, them have a gander at westminster, both the tories and UKIP in particular.

Zubeneschamali · 10-10-2016 08:27PM

Fratton Fred wrote: »

The eu intentionally damaging the UK (as much as some on here would like to see it) does no one any favours.

The UK come out and say they want to leave, want immigration control, want out from under the EU coutrs, and want to make their own laws and regulations. No-one in the EU can stop them doing those things - but they put them outside the single market.

How is it "intentionally damaging the UK" to give them everything they want?

First Up · 10-10-2016 08:39PM

greendom wrote:

Why would they? I can't see them failing. The UK will have to backtrack on freedom of movement in some way if it doesn't want to suffer from a trade perspective.

The UK's exit from the single market is in nobody's interest but it is obvious the UK stands to suffer the most.

The items they currently import from the EU will probably cost more (they certainly won't cost less) and replacing them with imports from elsewhere would involve higher transport costs and will be subject to whatever trade deals the UK can cut. Besides, there isn't anywhere else they can get Mercedes, BMWs or French wine.

Trade deals are reciprocal so it will be a good trick if the UK's (woefully inexperienced) negotiators can strike a better bargain for their 60m market than the EU could with 500m+.

UK exporters will face additional barriers selling into the EU. Tariffs are a possibility but the re-introduction of time-consuming customs procedures could be a bigger problem and a real threat to any UK company operating in a global supply chain. Almost everything available from the UK can be found somewhere else in Europe.

In short, companies in the EU have much better and easier options for both selling and sourcing goods than do companies in the UK. That won't be lost on the EU negotiators but it may take a while longer for it to dawn in Whitehall - or some posters here.

CMOTDibbler · 10-10-2016 08:50PM

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

Only sports cars I think. Hopefully Brexit won't hurt the British economy too much because it surely couldn't be good for Ireland.

A little economic innovation and they could make a success out of it and act as an example for other states which would be no bad thing imo.

It's not so much their economy I'm concerned about (although there are very significant dangers facing it) but the undermining of protections to consumers, workers and the environment that seem to be coming with the 'yoke' of Brussels removed.

Fratton Fred · 10-10-2016 08:51PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

If you could stop playing the victim for a moment it might become obvious that the EU has no choices here. It will protect itself.
The UK have messed up here, that's the bottom line. It's superiority complex has landed it here.
Nothing to do with the EU or fictitious people who want to see them suffer for brexiting. They will inflict major pain and regression here.

So the interests of the eu are all that matters and to hell with what it's member states might want?

Capt'n Midnight · 10-10-2016 08:54PM

steddyeddy wrote: »

The BRC says reverting to WTO rules would result in the following price rises:

The average duty on meat imports could be as high as 27%
Clothing and footwear would attract tariffs of 11-16% versus the current zero-rating for all EU imports
The import cost of women's clothing from Bangladesh would be 12% higher
Chilean wine would be 14% dearer for importers
However, many raw materials and semi-finished products would be zero-rated or attract rates of duty of below 10%

And then factor in the value of Sterling on top of all that.

First Up · 10-10-2016 08:55PM

Fratton Fred wrote:

So the interests of the eu are all that matters and to hell with what it's member states might want?

The EU is its member states and those member states are the people and businesses that inhabit them.

Nobody has allegiance to an abstract concept or a set of institutions but most people are sensible enough to know what is good for them.

Fratton Fred · 10-10-2016 08:56PM

First Up wrote: »

The UK's exit from the single market is in nobody's interest but it is obvious the UK stands to suffer the most.

The items they currently import from the EU will probably cost more (they certainly won't cost less) and replacing them with imports from elsewhere would involve higher transport costs and will be subject to whatever trade deals the UK can cut. Besides, there isn't anywhere else they can get Mercedes, BMWs or French wine.

Trade deals are reciprocal so it will be a good trick if the UK's (woefully inexperienced) negotiators can strike a better bargain for their 60m market than the EU could with 500m+.

UK exporters will face additional barriers selling into the EU. Tariffs are a possibility but the re-introduction of time-consuming customs procedures could be a bigger problem and a real threat to any UK company operating in a global supply chain. Almost everything available from the UK can be found somewhere else in Europe.

In short, companies in the EU have much better and easier options for both selling and sourcing goods than do companies in the UK. That won't be lost on the EU negotiators but it may take a while longer for it to dawn in Whitehall - or some posters here.

The eu is a massive economy, but every economy no matter how large has to look outside its own borders.

steddyeddy · 10-10-2016 08:58PM

People seem to forget that Cameron already tried to negotiate. People said then that the EU would give them anything they wanted because of trade ect.

Next in the run up to Brexit people said that the UK would offer all sorts of incentives because they need the UK's trade.

Now people are saying the same. Nothing has changed.

steddyeddy · 10-10-2016 08:59PM

Fratton Fred wrote: »

The eu is a massive economy, but every economy no matter how large has to look outside its own borders.

And it does.

First Up · 10-10-2016 08:59PM

Fratton Fred wrote:

The eu is a massive economy, but every economy no matter how large has to look outside its own borders.

I hope the irony of that is not lost on you.

SeanW · 10-10-2016 08:59PM

Deleted User wrote: »

I'm just getting around to reading this reality check article from The Irish Times last Monday:

Why Brexit will be Margaret Thatcher’s revenge

'But the irony is that, contrary to the hopes of many Brexiteers, leaving the EU will expose Britain to more globalisation, not less; and in a more competitive and harsher world it will be the “left behind”, those most likely to have voted for Brexit, who will suffer the most...'

Have you heard a single Nigel Farage speech? The ability of the UK do exactly that - to make its own trade deals with other countries and to open itself to the best that the world has to offer in terms of trade and immigration was a central plank in the Brexit argument. And it had been this way for many years.

seamus wrote: »

The problem here is that you can't bolster your domestic economy selling stuff to yourself.

Yes, you can. The Keynesian "circular flow" is a cornerstone of modern economics.

At the risk of being subjective, I would also add that cars from the Continent are crap. Every European car anyone in my immediate family has ever had, or that I have had the misfortune to have to drive when my own (Japanese, but probably made in the UK) car was unavailable, has been unreliable and horrible to drive. And that's just German cars, which are thought of as being relatively good, French cars are even worse AFAIK. IMO only the Japanese make decent cars - and Toyota, the cream of the Japanese crop, makes its cars in England. With a 10% duty on cars from the Contient, 65 million consumers would discover fairly quickly the relative superiority of Japanese cars considering those (Toyota, Nissan) are made in the UK and would not be taxed. No Eurocrat could possibly want that. No sane Eurocrat anyway ...

The vast majority of raw materials for those Toyota plants comes from outside of the UK.

Those will almost certainly be zero rated.

Kotek Besar wrote: »

I read this on a UK forum the other day. Wish I could have liked the post a thousand times:

(I'm English, btw).

Yes. If you hate your country and you think everything in it is awful and that you have to be "rescued" from your own awfulness by an anti-democratic, supra-national monstrosity, then yes that line of thought makes sense. Brexiters took a somewhat more positive and less self-hating view.

steddyeddy wrote: »

From the BBC on possible tariffs and the certainty of increased prices in shops:

I assume that Westminster can zero-rate anything it wishes. Especially if it chooses to make a free trade agreement with Chile etc (which post Brexit it will be able to do).

steddyeddy wrote: »

I have no doubt the EU will be blamed.

The Brexit attitude to the rest of the EU has been clear from the start "we want to be your friends, we're happy to trade with you and be good neighbors, we just don't want politcal union".

Seems for the EU a good deal - they get to keep selling French wines/cheeses and second-rate crap German/French cars to the UK without any tarrifs whatsoever, (remember the UK buys more from the continent than vice-versa), so that only the politics changes. But if the E.U. decides "screw you, we're just to hurt you to make example of you" then yes, it would be perfectly fair for Brexiters to point this out, and to blame them for any short term difficulties caused by the lack of an FTA. As above, there's already evidence that the Eurocrats are pursuing the latter option.

Greenmachine wrote: »

Explain to me why Britain is proposing we have a border on our side to keep illegal immigrant out of the UK when they leave the EU. Surely the burden is on them and they can protect their own borders??

That's what happens now with the Common Travel Area - Ireland and the UK are in the Common Travel Area, so if someone gets to Ireland, they can cross into the UK from Dundalk, Emmyvale, Belturbet, Lifford etc and thus travel to the British mainland without further checks. But presumably one would not be able to work legally without UK national insurance number or a work permit. Hence "free movement" would no longer apply to the UK.

Fratton Fred · 10-10-2016 09:02PM

First Up wrote: »

The EU is its member states and those member states are the people and businesses that inhabit them

It is, yes.

I fear they have lost sight of that though.

Brexit could be the wake up call the eu needs.

FrancieBrady · 10-10-2016 09:03PM

Fratton Fred wrote: »

So the interests of the eu are all that matters and to hell with what it's member states might want?

The UK is getting what it wants - out.

Fratton Fred · 10-10-2016 09:05PM

First Up wrote: »

I hope the irony of that is not lost on you.

Not in the slightest.

Capt'n Midnight · 10-10-2016 09:09PM

kunst nugget wrote: »

Out of curiosity, what's going to happen to cars for the Irish Market? Is there any chance that we are going to lose out because we drive on the left like the UK and end up being hit with higher prices for cars because of Brexit?

IIRC EU rules say that dealers have to offer left hand drive at the same price. Top Gear have used this one along with EU warranty to save thousands on new cars in the past.

Of course that may not apply to cars exported to the UK once they leave.
Manufacturers may drop EU wide warranty on entry level cars exported to the UK. Another way to reduce the price of cars in the face of increasing costs is to offer poverty-spec, something done here in the past.

First Up · 10-10-2016 09:10PM

SeanW wrote:

Have you heard a single Nigel Farage speech? The ability of the UK do exactly that - to make its own trade deals with other countries and to open itself to the best that the world has to offer in terms of trade and immigration was a central plank in the Brexit argument. And it had been this way for many years.

And we'll how all that goes soon enough.

Enzokk · 10-10-2016 09:51PM

SeanW wrote: »

The Brexit attitude to the rest of the EU has been clear from the start "we want to be your friends, we're happy to trade with you and be good neighbors, we just don't want politcal union".

Seems for the EU a good deal - they get to keep selling French wines/cheeses and second-rate crap German/French cars to the UK without any tarrifs whatsoever, (remember the UK buys more from the continent than vice-versa), so that only the politics changes. But if the E.U. decides "screw you, we're just to hurt you to make example of you" then yes, it would be perfectly fair for Brexiters to point this out, and to blame them for any short term difficulties caused by the lack of an FTA. As above, there's already evidence that the Eurocrats are pursuing the latter option.

That is fine, the EU has set out its stall already. If you want to trade freely you have to accept free movement of labour and goods. Its now up to the UK to decide to accept this (which they have rejected already so I guess there is only one option and that is no access to the single market). Its not for the EU to grant a special deal to the UK because the other EU skeptic countries will want the same and once you start to unravel that thread the whole thing will break apart.

I find your comment on the cars interesting, you seem to imply that UK users are buying inferior cars at a premium. Surely it will be to their benefit then not to pay so much for crappy cars and drive away with....what exactly? Both Nissan and Toyota have warned that if there are barriers to trade they will re-think their factories and investments in the UK. Seeing that most of the cars assembled in the UK are exported to the EU, if they lose those factories they will have to import cars from the EU for the UK market. My guess is they will keep buying BMWs and VW and Mercs but at a higher price as the other cars will also be affected by the same tariffs.

catbear · 10-10-2016 10:01PM

SeanW wrote: »

The Brexit attitude to the rest of the EU has been clear from the start "we want to be your friends, we're happy to trade with you and be good neighbors, we just don't want politcal union"..

Fine then off they go then. The fact that the EU team is installed and ready for A50 shows it's a voluntary union.

If they want to sell their services to the EU but restrict EU access to their market then they have to pay compensation for that.

Todd Toddington III · 10-10-2016 10:04PM

SeanW wrote: »

At the risk of being subjective, I would also add that cars from the Continent are crap. Every European car anyone in my immediate family has ever had, or that I have had the misfortune to have to drive when my own (Japanese, but probably made in the UK) car was unavailable, has been unreliable and horrible to drive. And that's just German cars, which are thought of as being relatively good, French cars are even worse AFAIK. IMO only the Japanese make decent cars - and Toyota, the cream of the Japanese crop, makes its cars in England. With a 10% duty on cars from the Contient, 65 million consumers would discover fairly quickly the relative superiority of Japanese cars considering those (Toyota, Nissan) are made in the UK and would not be taxed. No Eurocrat could possibly want that. No sane Eurocrat anyway ...

Those will almost certainly be zero rated.

No offence sean but thats a fairly nonsense argument. If you believe that people who drive A4s, 3 series and E classes are at any point in the future going to switch to buying the awful looking (imo) avensis and corolla you are very very wrong

maryishere · 10-10-2016 10:14PM

catbear wrote: »

If they want to sell their services to the EU but restrict EU access to their market

I do not think they want to restrict EU access to their market or the other way round...trade barriers suit neither side. The English are quite good at trading on a world wide stage and are not protectionist. What they do want however is to control emigration : understandable as the population density of England is so much higher that say Ireland or France, and increasing. Merkel inviting another million migrants in to the EU - many of whom experience has shown will bring another million family members in time, and many who will not integrate - last winter was a case in point.
Would anyone here in Ireland like to have the same population density as England, and increasing?

CMOTDibbler · 10-10-2016 10:17PM

SeanW wrote: »

Yes, you can. The Keynesian "circular flow" is a cornerstone of modern economics.

It's a cornerstone that doesn't exist anywhere in the world. It's just the basis for the more complex models that actually do exist.

SeanW wrote: »

At the risk of being subjective, I would also add that cars from the Continent are crap. Every European car anyone in my immediate family has ever had, or that I have had the misfortune to have to drive when my own (Japanese, but probably made in the UK) car was unavailable, has been unreliable and horrible to drive. And that's just German cars, which are thought of as being relatively good, French cars are even worse AFAIK. IMO only the Japanese make decent cars - and Toyota, the cream of the Japanese crop, makes its cars in England. With a 10% duty on cars from the Contient, 65 million consumers would discover fairly quickly the relative superiority of Japanese cars considering those (Toyota, Nissan) are made in the UK and would not be taxed. No Eurocrat could possibly want that. No sane Eurocrat anyway ...

You're right, it is subjective. Because I could say (quite trithfully) that of the last eight cars that myself and my wife have separately owned, the Japanese ones (three) were the worst. The German ones were (and are) the best.

SeanW wrote: »

Those will almost certainly be zero rated.

I assume that Westminster can zero-rate anything it wishes. Especially if it chooses to make a free trade agreement with Chile etc (which post Brexit it will be able to do).

That's not a given. In any trade talks where there will be tariffs on certain goods in one direction, it will almost automatically mean the same tariffs in the other as well. Not necessarily, I must hasten to point out, but if it causes a competitive disadvantage then it's almost certain.

SeanW wrote: »

The Brexit attitude to the rest of the EU has been clear from the start "we want to be your friends, we're happy to trade with you and be good neighbors, we just don't want politcal union".

I thought "we don't want free movement of labour" was the overriding principle?

Without the free movement of labour there can't be free movement of goods. That's the cornerstone of the EU and the common market.

Capt'n Midnight · 10-10-2016 10:22PM

SeanW wrote: »

seamus View Post wrote:

The vast majority of raw materials for those Toyota plants comes from outside of the UK.

Those will almost certainly be zero rated.

if only it was that simple
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/classifying-vehicles#classifying-vehicle-parts-and-accessories

The rough guide says 4.5% for radiators from China. (EU rules)
https://www.dutycalculator.com/dc/173119/car-parts-diy-tools/car-styling-parts/radiators/import-duty-rate-for-importing-car-parts-from-china-to-united-kingdom-is-4.5/

CMOTDibbler · 10-10-2016 10:22PM

maryishere wrote: »

I do not think they want to restrict EU access to their market or the other way round...trade barriers suit neither side. The English are quite good at trading on a world wide stage and are not protectionist. What they do want however is to control emigration : understandable as the population density of England is so much higher that say Ireland or France, and increasing. Merkel inviting another million migrants in to the EU - many of whom experience has shown will bring another million family members in time, and many who will not integrate - last winter was a case in point.
Would anyone here in Ireland like to have the same population density as England, and increasing?

He was talking about services, which usually involves the movement of people. You can't have your cake and eat it. If the UK want to sell services into Europe and have their people working in Europe whilst providing those services, they can't tell European workers doing similar jobs in the UK to feck along home.

maryishere · 10-10-2016 11:14PM

CMOTDibbler wrote: »

He was talking about services,.

Businesses which sell services in foreign jurisdictions usually hire staff in that jurisdiction, as they know the market there best, speak the local language etc. The UK is the 5th or 6th biggest economy in the world and currently trades services and goods with almost every country in the world - if outside the EC that would continue.

And the current situation where the UK pays much more in to EU funds than it gets back would not continue. It was great for us when we were getting the billions of EU money, but that is all over now. Our neighbours have decided to do what they think will be best for them. Its a bit pathetic and childish for us to whinge at their referendum decision when we were the benificaries of their genorousity for so many decades.

steddyeddy · 10-10-2016 11:31PM

maryishere wrote: »

Businesses which sell services in foreign jurisdictions usually hire staff in that jurisdiction, as they know the market there best, speak the local language etc. The UK is the 5th or 6th biggest economy in the world and currently trades services and goods with almost every country in the world - if outside the EC that would continue.

It would continue outside of the biggest single market in the world.

UK Votes to leave EU

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