UK Votes to leave EU

steddyeddy · 10-10-2016 06:18PM

Fratton Fred wrote: »

What?

The UK as it stands, will be the eu's largest export market when it leaves.

You betray the attitude of the smaller nations in the eu, it's all about "what's in it for us".

The big boys will still want to trade as freely as possible with the UK. The hard Brexit talk is merely the opening shots in the negotiations. No Tory PM is going to deliberately hurt their exporters.

Fred they're going to trade with Britain no matter what. It will just be more costly for both.

catbear · 10-10-2016 06:24PM

Fratton Fred wrote: »

The UK as it stands, will be the eu's largest export market when it leaves.

Even within the EU, the USA, China and Japan are individually larger trade partners than the UK to the Eurozone.

But the Uk is wonderful and Kate is going to make a great splash with the charm offensive and that will strengthen the pound.

I wish I could laugh but the delusions are worrying.

wes · 10-10-2016 06:28PM

Fratton Fred wrote: »

What?

The UK as it stands, will be the eu's largest export market when it leaves.

According to who exactly? Nigel Farage? Boris Johnson? You have a crystal ball that can predict the future?

Fratton Fred wrote: »

You betray the attitude of the smaller nations in the eu, it's all about "what's in it for us".

Its called rational self interest. The EU is far more important than Britain, to members of the EU.

Fratton Fred wrote: »

The big boys will still want to trade as freely as possible with the UK. The hard Brexit talk is merely the opening shots in the negotiations. No Tory PM is going to deliberately hurt their exporters.

You have 0 proof of your statement here at all. There is nothing to suggest that May is nothing less than serious about Hard Brexit. As for no Tory PM hurting exporters, well I am sure some people said the same about EU membership, and yet here we are with Brexit.

Simply put, the big boys care more about the far large EU, which is far more important than little England. Britain's empire is in the dust bin of history. They need to realize that.

Competition to take stuff from Britain is simple common sense. Various opportunists will be up for grabs, and people will take them if they can. Trade will still happen, but the decision of the British people has sadly screwed things up, and there will be negative consequences for all involved. No reason not to try and cushion some of them at all.

Fratton Fred · 10-10-2016 06:33PM

catbear wrote: »

Even within the EU, the USA, China and Japan are individually larger trade partners than the UK to the Eurozone.

But the Uk is wonderful and Kate is going to make a great splash with the charm offensive and that will strengthen the pound.

I wish I could laugh but the delusions are worrying.

https://fullfact.org/europe/where-does-eu-export/

Read that and leave the discussion to the adults.

FrancieBrady · 10-10-2016 06:45PM

Some balance here for the 'adults'.
http://www.niesr.ac.uk/blog/after-brexit-how-important-would-uk-trade-be-eu#.V_vSuT_TVcs

Zubeneschamali · 10-10-2016 06:51PM

Fratton Fred wrote: »

The hard Brexit talk is merely the opening shots in the negotiations.

Again, this makes no sense. If the Brits opening negotiating position is that they are leaving and are prepared to give up the single market for immigration control, the EU will have nothing to negotiate. You are entitled to everything you want. Bye.

Fratton Fred · 10-10-2016 06:52PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Some balance here for the 'adults'.
http://www.niesr.ac.uk/blog/after-brexit-how-important-would-uk-trade-be-eu#.V_vSuT_TVcs

A very good article and backs up my point nicely. Especially this bit

The EU, and even more so the UK, would certainly have a strong incentive to negotiate a sensible trading arrangement post-Brexit. But no-one should imagine the UK holds all the cards.,

Thank you.

steddyeddy · 10-10-2016 06:55PM

Fratton Fred wrote: »

A very good article and backs up my point nicely. Especially this bit

Thank you.

Sensible Fred but the UK will doubtlessly come off worse to a lot worse than it is.

Fratton Fred · 10-10-2016 06:57PM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Again, this makes no sense. If the Brits opening negotiating position is that they are leaving and are prepared to give up the single market for immigration control, the EU will have nothing to negotiate. You are entitled to everything you want. Bye.

And the Visegrad group have said they will veto any deal that does not allow their citizens free movement to the UK, which could put them at odds with other countries.

At the moment, no one is showing their cards, just making convenient statements.

FrancieBrady · 10-10-2016 06:58PM

Fratton Fred wrote: »

A very good article and backs up my point nicely. Especially this bit

Thank you.

Maryishere spinability springs to mind.

CMOTDibbler · 10-10-2016 07:02PM

Fratton Fred wrote: »

What?

The UK as it stands, will be the eu's largest export market when it leaves.

I don't think so. The figures above suggest that Germany exports 92.5% of its output to countries other than the UK. It's not an easy figure to get at, because the UK is still part of the EU and EU trade figures as a bloc, necessarily include the UK.

So you have to look at each individual country.

2014 figures:
Country|Total Exports|To UK ($ billions)
Germany|1,410|100
Italy|509|28
France|571|41
Netherlands|525|50
Spain|299|22
Ireland|142|19
UK|472|208*

*Exports to EU

Many EU countries don't have significant exports to the UK, so the figures are not readily available. The largest are given in the table above and they don't exceed 10% of total exports for any of them.

Zubeneschamali · 10-10-2016 07:02PM

Fratton Fred wrote: »

And the Visegrad group have said they will veto any deal that does not allow their citizens free movement to the UK, which could put them at odds with other countries.

They can't veto Hard Brexit - the UK isn't asking for their agreement on any deal. They trigger article 50, wait two years, they are out. They have immigration control, control of their laws, everything May said at the conference that she wants.

Like I said, this makes no sense as an opening negotiating tactic. It only makes sense to tell the Brexiteers this is the plan if you are going to follow through.

Fratton Fred · 10-10-2016 07:07PM

steddyeddy wrote: »

Sensible Fred but the UK will doubtlessly come off worse to a lot worse than it is.

Most likely, probably not as bad as some might like though.

Fratton Fred · 10-10-2016 07:12PM

CMOTDibbler wrote: »

I don't think so. The figures above suggest that Germany exports 92.5% of its output to countries other than the UK. It's not an easy figure to get at, because the UK is still part of the EU and EU trade figures as a bloc, necessarily include the UK.

So you have to look at each individual country.

2014 figures:
Country|Total Exports|To UK ($ billions)
Germany|1,410|100
Italy|509|28
France|571|41
Netherlands|525|50
Spain|299|22
Ireland|142|19
UK|472|208*

*Exports to EU

Many EU countries don't have significant exports to the UK, so the figures are not readily available. The largest are given in the table above and they don't exceed 10% of total exports for any of them.

There are links to two different sites that quite 16% of total exports, making the UK slightly larger than the US.

It's semantics though really if it's the first, second or third largest. the UK is an important export destination for a lot of companies in the eu (and vice versa). It is in every body's interests to reach an amicable agreement.

catbear · 10-10-2016 07:14PM

I think the visagrad group are intimating that touching any of our citizens in the UK legally will have post Brexit consequences. I'd support that sentiment.

Fratton Fred · 10-10-2016 07:15PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Maryishere spinability springs to mind.

You obviously didn't read the article did you.

Fratton Fred · 10-10-2016 07:22PM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

They can't veto Hard Brexit - the UK isn't asking for their agreement on any deal. They trigger article 50, wait two years, they are out. They have immigration control, control of their laws, everything May said at the conference that she wants.

Like I said, this makes no sense as an opening negotiating tactic. It only makes sense to tell the Brexiteers this is the plan if you are going to follow through.

eu leaders are talking tough, so May is calling their bluff, it's as simple as that.

Hard Brexit is a nightmare for everyone involved, so she is telling the other leaders OK, we are going for the worst case scenario, talk me out of it.

It's all bluster at the moment, just like Hollande's speech last week.

CMOTDibbler · 10-10-2016 07:23PM

Fratton Fred wrote: »

There are links to two different sites that quite 16% of total exports, making the UK slightly larger than the US.

It's semantics though really if it's the first, second or third largest. the UK is an important export destination for a lot of companies in the eu (and vice versa). It is in every body's interests to reach an amicable agreement.

I read that after I posted that table, but it doesn't really contradict it. 2014 is probably a year out of date stats-wise, but we have to remember that the total doesn't give the full picture. Each EU member state will have a different view on things depending on how their trade with the UK stacks up. Many don't have much, others have more.

The single biggest import item for the UK is cars and other vehicles. These account for 10% of imports. Interestingly, the biggest export item is also cars and other vehicles.

FrancieBrady · 10-10-2016 07:26PM

Fratton Fred wrote: »

You obviously didn't read the article did you.

I did indeed and this bit is an interesting bit,

What does this tell us about the UK’s bargaining power with the EU after a Brexit? Well, it certainly confirms that we would become one of the EU’s largest export markets, even if not necessarily the largest. But we’d still be far less important to the EU than they are to us – the EU still takes about 45 percent of our exports, down from 55 percent at the turn of the century. And, if you treat the EU as one country, as this analysis does, “exports” become considerably less important overall (intra-EU trade is far more important to almost all EU countries). Indeed, as this Eurostat table shows, only for Ireland and Cyprus does the UK represent more than 10 percent of total (including intra-EU) exports.

Not quite what you were claiming.

Junkyard Tom · 10-10-2016 07:27PM

CMOTDibbler wrote: »

Interestingly, the biggest export item is also cars and other vehicles.

And they'd be from non-UK manufacturers would they?

greendom · 10-10-2016 07:30PM

Fratton Fred wrote: »

eu leaders are talking tough, so May is calling their bluff, it's as simple as that.

Hard Brexit is a nightmare for everyone involved, so she is telling the other leaders OK, we are going for the worst case scenario, talk me out of it.

It's all bluster at the moment, just like Hollande's speech last week.

The EU's primary motivation is its own survival. It will do all it can to make an exit from the EU as unpleasant as possible. Economic considerations will be secondary.

LordSutch · 10-10-2016 07:34PM

greendom wrote: »

The EU's primary motivation is its own survival. It will do all it can to make an exit from the EU as unpleasant as possible. Economic considerations will be secondary.

So lets hope they fail (to make it so unpleasant).

CMOTDibbler · 10-10-2016 07:35PM

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

And they'd be from non-UK manufacturers would they?

I assume they would. Are there any UK manufacturers of cars left at this stage?

greendom · 10-10-2016 07:35PM

LordSutch wrote: »

So lets hope they fail (to make it so unpleasant).

Why would they? I can't see them failing. The UK will have to backtrack on freedom of movement in some way if it doesn't want to suffer from a trade perspective.

Junkyard Tom · 10-10-2016 07:46PM

CMOTDibbler wrote: »

I assume they would. Are there any UK manufacturers of cars left at this stage?

Only sports cars I think. Hopefully Brexit won't hurt the British economy too much because it surely couldn't be good for Ireland.

A little economic innovation and they could make a success out of it and act as an example for other states which would be no bad thing imo.

Fratton Fred · 10-10-2016 07:47PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I did indeed and this bit is an interesting bit,

Not quite what you were claiming.

Which was?

karma_ · 10-10-2016 07:56PM

Fratton Fred wrote: »

eu leaders are talking tough, so May is calling their bluff, it's as simple as that.

Hard Brexit is a nightmare for everyone involved, so she is telling the other leaders OK, we are going for the worst case scenario, talk me out of it.

It's all bluster at the moment, just like Hollande's speech last week.

Fred, The UK has put the EU as it stands now in an impossible situation. The UK cannot be allowed to have a equal trade deal being outside the club as another member nation within. To let that happen would destroy the whole project because it would give a greater voice to those far-right parties crawling out from under their rocks all over the continent.

The UK is in a serious position, and they just keep digging the hole deeper for themselves by playing hardball.

FrancieBrady · 10-10-2016 08:02PM

Fratton Fred wrote: »

Which was?

That the EU would have to be careful.

Not half as careful as the UK. It has much more to lose.

Fratton Fred · 10-10-2016 08:03PM

karma_ wrote: »

Fred, The UK has put the EU as it stands now in an impossible situation. The UK cannot be allowed to have a equal trade deal being outside the club as another member nation within. To let that happen would destroy the whole project because it would give a greater voice to those far-right parties crawling out from under their rocks all over the continent.

The UK is in a serious position, and they just keep digging the hole deeper for themselves by playing hardball.

So what's the alternative?

Ignore democracy because it's not given the answer we hoped for, or bend over and take it up the Gary Glitter?

I have a lot of sympathy for Theresa May, she could be a very good PM, but has picked up a poisoned chalice.

Fratton Fred · 10-10-2016 08:05PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

That the EU would have to be careful.

Not half as careful as the UK. It has much more to lose.

They both need to be careful. The eu intentionally damaging the UK (as much as some on here would like to see it) does no one any favours.

UK Votes to leave EU

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