UK Votes to leave EU

CMOTDibbler · 08-10-2016 10:02AM

maryishere wrote: »

Which is good for the UK economy. Hotels etc are thriving again in the UK.

A small drop in the value of sterling (up to 10% is manageable) is good for the economy. A 25% drop is a disaster.

The UK is a net importer of goods. That means that it's balance of trade deficit wil increase in purely monetary terms. Which actually means somoething. The cost of imports hits all sectors and that will have to be passed on to the consumer. At present that may not have hit yet if companies have hedged at pre-Brexit prices. But that will be running out now and the 25% difference will start to hit.

People buying British goods and services from abroad are benefitting from the drop in sterling. Tourism will benefit, but only in the short term. When costs go up, prices have to follow.

There's inflation at the end of the rainbow.

Calina · 08-10-2016 10:11AM

maryishere wrote: »

On a positive note, 1,500,000 cars are year are made in the UK. It will now be cheaper to import our Nissans (from Sunderland ) and Hondas ( from Swindon ) and Land Rovers and Toyotas etc, due to exchange rates. Of course our government still charges a fortune in vrt, despite the "common market".

I think you have a naive view of this. The UK's car industry has to import a lot to actually build cars and a falling sterling will cause some serious issues there. The only part that's going to see a reduction in cost per se is the cost of labour so can you tell me what proportion of the cost of manufacturing a Nissan in Sunderland is directly attributable to the cost of labour in Sunderland?

It's also worth noting that despite the existence of the internal market - which is about far more than prices - taxation broadly remains the remit of the member states. I want to ask what you think would happen if tax rates were to be set in Brussels. I suspect there'd be a lot of screaming.

First Up · 08-10-2016 10:12AM

maryishere wrote:

on their own? You mean without all the money, aid, help the UK has given them / us over the decades since the early seventies? You are right, the UK has been the second biggest contributor to EC / EU funds after Germany. We have done well out of the EEC / EC / EU over the decades, what with out farmers being looked after, regional development funds, motorways and roads programmes, money for education and students, leader funds, subsidies grants and handouts. Remember the billions Albert Reynolds got from "Europe" for us? Only 3 or 4 years the UK and EC and IMF lent us money when nobody else would. If they did not, our government would not have had money to pay teachers, nurses, pensions, Gardai, unemployment etc the following month. We done well out of the UK. They were proven correct in their decesion to keep sterling / not join the euro. No doubt they will be proven correct in relation to Brexit in due course. They are doing so already - the UK economy is healthier than us or the rest of the EC and has been for some time.

A somewhat spectacular example of missing the point.

suicide_circus · 08-10-2016 10:12AM

First Up wrote: »

If you think EU countries would be better able to deal with recession or a migrant crisis on their own, I suggest you think again.

I don't have the data or evidence to accurately hypothesise what way things would go without the EU.

First Up · 08-10-2016 10:29AM

maryishere wrote:

A hard border between north + south is not practical or sustainable in a country of 5 million odd.

Its not a country; its an island. I look forward to your formula for how it will function when one jurisdiction is in a 27 country economic bloc and the other jurisdiction is part of a fearful, protectionist and isolated former world power that has withdrawn itself into its own delusions.

And if you come up with a plan, drop a note to Ms May as the current UK government very evidently hasn't a clue what to do.

catbear · 08-10-2016 10:32AM

How many times does it has have to be said car manufacturing in the UK is heavily reliant on parts from the EU. Ford assemble engines there with 60% of the parts from the EU.

Food and drink are probably their exports least affected by import inflation but even there machinery parts are needed.

Our food and drinks sector have every reason to want to slap tariffs on UK products so I can't see the weaker pound being of benefit in the long term.

FrancieBrady · 08-10-2016 10:33AM

First Up wrote: »

Its not a country; its an island. I look forward to your formula for how it will function when one jurisdiction is in a 27 country economic bloc and the other jurisdiction is part of a fearful, protectionist and isolated former world power that has withdrawn itself into its own delusions.

And if you come up with a plan, drop a note to Ms May as the current UK government very evidently hasn't a clue what to do.

She might want to brief Ends and Arlene too.

LordSutch · 08-10-2016 10:40AM

The next two and a half years is going to be very interesting. TM looks more than up to the challange, indeed one might 'the impression' that its her mission in life to meet Hollande head on & make Brexit her Trafalgar! (seeing as he wants to play hardball).

She wants to wipe the slate clean with Europe and press the 'Restart button', but this time the UK will make its own laws (while retaining the good EU ones). It will be a fresh start for the UK, and a realignment of the UK/Ireland & Europe, which I guess will be dramatic, challengining, worrying, fascinating, spectacular, pathfinding, dangerous and hopefully rewarding...

The EU-IE-UK landscape will be very different after the dust has settled, and we can only hope that the Irish government can make its voice heard vis-à-vis our trading relationship with the UK, part of which inhabits this island.

So how hard is a 'Hard Brexit', that is the question?

steddyeddy · 08-10-2016 10:41AM

Do these "up Britannica" caricatures not realise that it's their rosy eyed nationalism that's causing this mess? A delusion of grandeur about the Britain's ability to be be "great" again. The world is laughing at you Britain.

steddyeddy · 08-10-2016 10:42AM

LordSutch wrote: »

The next two and a half years is going to be very interesting. TM looks more than up to the challange, indeed one might 'the impression' that its her mission in life to meet Hollande head on & make Brexit her Trafalgar! (seeing as he wants to play hardball).

She wants to wipe the slate clean with Europe and press the 'Restart button', but this time the UK will make its own laws (while retaining the good EU ones). It will be a fresh start for the UK, and a realignment of the UK/Ireland & Europe, which I guess will be dramatic, challengining, worrying, fascinating, spectacular, pathfinding, dangerous and hopefully rewarding...

The EU-IE-UK landscape will be very different after the dust has settled, and we can only hope that the Irish government can make its voice heard vis-à-vis our trading relationship with the UK, part of which inhabits this island.

So how hard is a 'Hard Brexit', that is the question?

What will May negotiate with?

LordSutch · 08-10-2016 10:44AM

steddyeddy wrote: »

Do these "up Britannica" caricatures not realise that it's their rosy eyed nationalism that's causing this mess? A delusion of grandeur about the Britain's ability to be be "great" again. The world is laughing at you Britain.

Well she has to implement what the people voted for, its not her fault the the referendum didn't turn out in her favour. She didn't vote for Brexit.

I wouldn't have voted for Brexit either, but its here now, or at least its coming down the tracks . . . . .

steddyeddy wrote: »

What will May negotiate with?

Six years as Home sec will have prepared her to negotiate with whoever she needs to negotiate with.

steddyeddy · 08-10-2016 10:46AM

LordSutch wrote: »

Well she has to implement what the people voted for, its not her fault the the referendum didn't turn out in her favour. She didn't vote for Brexit.

I wouldn't have voted for Brexit either, but its here now, or at least its coming down the tracks . . . . .

But she represents everyone, including the 48% that voted to stay.

Calina · 08-10-2016 10:48AM

LordSutch wrote: »

Six years as foreign sec will have prepared her to negotiate with whoever she needs to negotiate with.

May was 8 years as Home Secretary and her record was mixed at best. When was she Foreign Secretary?

robindch · 08-10-2016 10:50AM

steddyeddy wrote: »

But she represents everyone, including the 48% that voted to stay.

Given Tory output over the last few weeks and especially at the openly xenophobic conference, I think it's quite clear that the Tories and May most pointedly do not represent the 48% who voted to remain part of the world's largest free trade union.

LordSutch · 08-10-2016 10:52AM

Calina wrote: »

When was she Foreign Secretary?

Home, foreign, tomato tomato, you get my drift. The old bird has been knocking around the corridors of power for a long time now, and she's rubbed shoulders with the great and the good, she knows her onions on the home stage, as well as the world stage.

FrancieBrady · 08-10-2016 11:00AM

LordSutch wrote: »

Home, foreign, tomato tomato, you get my drift. The old bird has been knocking around the corridors of power for a long time now, and she's rubbed shoulders with the great and the good, she knows her onions on the home stage, as well as the world stage.

A bit of perspective is always a good thing.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/18/what-does-theresa-mays-record-as-home-secretary-tell-us

May has made denouncing the Human Rights Act and demanding Britain’s withdrawal from the European convention on human rights a major theme of her Tory party conference speeches while she was home secretary. During her only press questioning after her only leadership campaign speech she appeared to drop this hardline stance but was in fact careful only to say that “no parliamentary majority exists for it”. That means she is likely to go into the next election pledged to Britain’s withdrawal from the European convention on human rights – which would leave Britain as the only European country in the same position as the pariah state of Belarus.

Capt'n Midnight · 08-10-2016 11:17AM

catbear wrote: »

How many times does it has have to be said car manufacturing in the UK is heavily reliant on parts from the EU. Ford assemble engines there with 60% of the parts from the EU.

I've heard the figure of 6% already on parts just due to currency. And that's before any new tariffs.

UK-EU car imports-exports were very close in value before this. UK was importing luxury German cars, UK exporting generic economy cars. Guess which are more price sensitive ? Bemers, Mercs and Audi's will still be status symbols.

If there is a contraction in European car market then the foreign companies could use that to start shifting the export based UK car manufacturing to Eastern Europe. Tomorrow. Or more likely blackmail the government into more grants, loans and tax cut.

catbear · 08-10-2016 11:58AM

LordSutch wrote: »

Home, foreign, tomato tomato, you get my drift. The old bird has been knocking around the corridors of power for a long time now, and she's rubbed shoulders with the great and the good, she knows her onions on the home stage, as well as the world stage.

Back up there. You mentioned earlier she will be squaring up with president Holland, but they can't discuss EU negotiations. Talks are now directly between London and Brussels. Anglo Irish talks are also repositioned in this new alignment, the Irish government promotes Irish interests around the GFA directly to the other sitting members.

steddyeddy · 08-10-2016 12:02PM

catbear wrote: »

Back up there. You mentioned earlier she will be squaring up with president Holland, but they can't discuss EU negotiations. Talks are now directly between London and Brussels. Anglo Irish talks are also repositioned in this new alignment, the Irish government promotes Irish interests around the GFA directly to the other sitting members.

Holland's not the only one. From the Guardian. Junker's stepping in:

"Hollande’s message was underlined on Friday by the president of the European commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, who said the 27 remaining member states must not give an inch in exit negotiations. “You can’t have one foot in and one foot out,” he said. “We must be unyielding on this point.”

Anita Blow · 08-10-2016 12:02PM

Saw an interesting figure on Reddit that ROI accounts for >1/3 of all exports from NI, yet NI represents just 1.2% of ours. People keep talking about how the UK as a whole will fare out of all of this, but fail to consider how its regions will do. I think NI & Wales will be ruined by it due to loss of structural funds, farm payments. NI especially- DUP campaigning for Brexit was a spectacular own goal just to appear British

Capt'n Midnight · 08-10-2016 12:02PM

Risteard81 wrote: »

Lemass betrayed the Republic proclaimed at Easter 1916 and helped to usurp the power of Dáil Éireann which delegated it's Governmental Authority to the Army Council in 1938 to hold in trust until such time as the Third Dáil could convene.

SF got 96.9% of the Vote in the 1921 election.

In 1922 Dev's anti-treaty SF got 21.8% of the vote , because most TD's were on the pro-treaty side.

In June 1927 SF got 3.6% of the vote again because most TD's had bailed , the rump really only had the name at this stage, and it wouldn't be the last time this happened to SF either.

In September 1927 there was another election and SF didn't even bother. No candidates.

The people spoke, and it was a resounding silence.

1916 was a blood sacrifice. It was never the will of the people. Yes it was a catalyst for change but the will of the people was expressed at every election since and they didn't buy it.

As for the original SF ? over the years it's been diluted like homoeopathy.

steddyeddy · 08-10-2016 12:03PM

Anita Blow wrote: »

Saw an interesting figure on Reddit that ROI accounts for >1/3 of all exports from NI, yet NI represents just 1.2% of ours. People keep talking about how the UK as a whole will fare out of all of this, but fail to consider how its regions will do. I think NI & Wales will be ruined by it due to loss of structural funds, farm payments. NI especially- DUP campaigning for Brexit was a spectacular own goal just to appear British

It's crazy to think that farmers in the Republic will get farm payments yet farmers across the border will get nothing.

A Little Pony · 08-10-2016 12:04PM

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

maryishere wrote: »

I am sorry you are so full of hate. I love Ireland.

I am not a man of hate. Stop projecting. You've an awful lot of hate for Ireland's independence and those of us who value it.

You don't have Independence as you are part of the EU.

steddyeddy · 08-10-2016 12:07PM

A Little Pony wrote: »

You don't have Independence as you are part of the EU.

You're confusing access to a single market with dictatorship. I think it's indicative of the imperialistic mind to think that regulations attached to market access is akin to control.

A Little Pony · 08-10-2016 12:07PM

steddyeddy wrote: »

Do these "up Britannica" caricatures not realise that it's their rosy eyed nationalism that's causing this mess? A delusion of grandeur about the Britain's ability to be be "great" again. The world is laughing at you Britain.

Most of the world is made up of independent nations. Why would they laugh at themselves? You are talking rubbish.

steddyeddy · 08-10-2016 12:08PM

A Little Pony wrote: »

Most of the world is made up of independent nations. Why would they laugh at themselves? You are talking rubbish.

I literally have no clue what you mean.

A Little Pony · 08-10-2016 12:08PM

steddyeddy wrote: »

A Little Pony wrote: »

You don't have Independence as you are part of the EU.

You're confusing access to a single market with dictatorship. I think it's indicative of the imperialistic mind to think that regulations attached to market access is akin to control.

Not just free movement and open borders which you can't control, laws made in Brussels which effect the Irish state. So many things which you don't control.

Capt'n Midnight · 08-10-2016 12:08PM

Anita Blow wrote: »

Saw an interesting figure on Reddit that ROI accounts for >1/3 of all exports from NI, yet NI represents just 1.2% of ours. People keep talking about how the UK as a whole will fare out of all of this, but fail to consider how its regions will do. I think NI & Wales will be ruined by it due to loss of structural funds, farm payments. NI especially- DUP campaigning for Brexit was a spectacular own goal just to appear British

Far more important was that the UUP campaigned against Brexit. Something that would have been completely unthinkable in the past.

DUP are probably still upset because it started with something called the Treaty of ... Rome

steddyeddy · 08-10-2016 12:12PM

How much of the UK's economic growth post 60s was dependent on having access to the single market?

Capt'n Midnight · 08-10-2016 12:18PM

http://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/revealed-us-billionaire-is-funding-brexit-legal-challenge-1-7619937

A High Court challenge to Brexit which has been fronted by several Northern Irish political parties is actually being funded with money which comes from a US billionaire, it can be revealed. Although it was not referred to in court nor publicised ahead of the case beginning on Tuesday, the News Letter has established that the money for the case has come from Chuck Feeney. The octogenarian businessman made his fortune in duty free shopping but has for 30 years been giving it away to what he sees as good causes.

made his fortune in duty free shopping

Brexit is sure throwing up wild cards.

UK Votes to leave EU

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