October 2016 Boards forecast contest

M.T. Cranium _______ 11.0 __ 21.5 _ --2.7 _ 080 _ 090 __ 64 kn on 30th

(edit as I notice a warming trend on model runs today)

Table of forecasts October 2016

FORECASTER ________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ Max gust, date

Joe Public __________ 11.9 _ 19.9 _ --2.9 _ 089 _ 119 ___ 55 kn ___ 2
MrSkinner __________11.2 _ 20.6 _ --2.2 _ 105 _ 100 ___ 57 kn __ 22
M.T. Cranium _______ 11.0 _ 21.5 _ --2.7 _ 080 _ 090 ___ 64 kn __ 30
Jpmarn ____________ 10.9 _ 22.0 _ --2.6 _ 105 _ 055 ___ 55 kn __ 14
waterways __________10.9 _ 20.5 _ --2.0 _ 126 _ 093 ___ 65 kn __ 24
mickger844posts _____10.9 _ 20.4 _ --1.9 _ 085 _ 115 ___ 60 kn __ 26
Tae laidir ___________10.9 _ 20.3 _ --2.5 _ 125 _ 097 ___ 53 kn __ 11
Rameire ___ (-2) ____ 10.9 _ 19.5 _ --2.1 _ 079 _ 120 ___ 50 kn __ 12
Jd ________________ 10.8 _ 21.0 _ --2.8 _ 108 _ 088 ___ 60 kn __ 24
Sunflower3 _________ 10.8 _ 17.8 _ --3.1 _ 115 _ 093 ___ 65 kn __ 26

Con Sensus _________ 10.8 _ 20.1 _ --2.4 _ 099 _ 099 ___ 61 kn __ 23

Dacogawa __________ 10.7 _ 20.2 _ --2.1 _ 089 _ 112 ___ 63 kn __ 28
Lumi ______________ 10.7 _ 20.0 _ --2.9 _ 100 _ 090 ___ 65 kn __ 18
DOCARCH __________ 10.6 _ 21.4 _ --2.2 _ 093 _ 105 ___ 58 kn __ 23
Pauldry ____________ 10.6 _ 20.2 _ --2.9 _ 135 _ 096 ___ 65 kn __ 31
dasa29 ____________ 10.5 _ 20.0 _ --2.0 _ 090 _ 095 ___ 70 kn __ 22
Bsal _______________10.4 _ 19.6 _ --2.0 _ 125 _ 100 ___ 59 kn __ 20
Kindred Spirit _______ 10.3 _ 20.0 _ --3.0 _ 120 _ 090 ___ 65kn __ 25

Norma L ___________ 10.1 _ 20.5 _ --3.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 54 kn __ **

Rikand ____________ 10.0 _ 19.0 _ --3.0 _ 090 _ 120 ___ 65 kn __ 30
john mac __________ 10.0 _ 17.7 _ --2.4 _ 098 _ 103 ___ 62 kn __ 19
sryanbruen __________9.6 _ 19.0 _ --1.4 _ 070 _ 110 ___ 55 kn __ 12

____________________________________________

Con Sensus may change if we get a few later entries (20 so far).

Our group forecast is basically for a rather mild October with near normal amounts of both rain and cloud (sun). We seem to be leaning towards a stormy end of the month.

MAX 17.2
MIN 0.1

The 150 mm rain (approx) at Valentia plus amounts at a few other western stations will set up about a min of 100% normal rainfall for the first week nationally even if it's bone dry at seven or eight of the locations.

After the first week...

IMT 11.6 (0.1 above normal)

MAX 18.3 and MIN 0.1

PRC 71% of normal (about 22% for ten out of eleven, 451% Valentia)

SUN 116.7% of normal

On the met.ie website, under latest reports, you'll find Agricultural Data. This section gives you the seven-day averages or totals that I use to derive the weekly reports. Their reports are for the previous seven days, so I have to remember to look on the 8th, 15th, 22nd and 29th of each month, get the four weeks as they come up, and then I average the values moving forward. I check the IMT values against "monthly data" in the past weather section. The question you raised about temperature anomaly was correctly answered by omicron and my source for that is in the table of agr-data.

There are always going to be small rounding errors working through the data so my estimates towards the end of each month may be slightly off. This is now my only source of sunshine percentages since the MS changed their reporting from percentages to total hours. But I can cross-check things against 1981-2010 normals which are contained in yet another portion of the website.

After 14 days ...

IMT 10.7 C after a cool week (9.9 deg C, 0.9 below average for the period).

PRC was 52% for the first two weeks, with the second week only 34%, the average however is no doubt climbing rapidly after a wet day on 15th at some stations and further rain today.

SUN now at 103% after a week that averaged 89%, oddly Shannon was much cloudier than the other five locations.

After three weeks ...

IMT 10.4 after a somewhat cool week at 9.8 (0.3 below normal).

PRC has risen to 66% of normal, the past week being quite average (94%).

SUN is now 106% thanks to a fairly sunny week (113%).

Nothing new to report on Max, Min or max gust.

Looking at further output, would expect a finish something like this:

10.5 _ 18.5 _ --2.5 _ 060 _ 110 _ 50 (scores would be basically in order from low to high)

After four weeks ...

IMT remains on 10.4, the past week averaged 10.3 (0.9 above normal). This looks like finishing around 10.6.

PRC has fallen to 52% of normal, as the week was quite dry (11% of normal) -- this will probably finish close to 50%. Don't panic, minimum progression will inflate the raw scores.

SUN is very close to 100% now after a somewhat dull week (the east in particular) that averaged 82.5%. This may finish around 98%.

Keeping an eye on the rather mild temperatures but so far nothing new to report on MAX (or MIN).

November thread is open and can be found in the pinned threads section.

Annual scoring update Jan to Oct 2016

The table is now based on best 8 of 10 (last month it was best 8 of 9) so your ranking score improves slightly unless October was lowest or second lowest score you have so far, in which case your ranking score remains the same. Of course your total score for all ten months increases by the full amount of October (last column with ranking).

best 8 of 10 ___________________________________________________________ all ten

rank/score_FORECASTER _ Jan_Feb_Mar_Apr_May_Jun_Jul_Aug_Sep_Oct __ TOTAL SCORE (rank)


01 572 _ Con Sensus ___ 73 _ 75 _ 77 _ 70 _ 67 _ 57 _ 65 _ 68 _ 65 _ 77 __ 694 (1)

01 567 sunflower3 _____ 72 _ 71 _ 81 _ 43 _ 61 _ 63 _ 74 _ 73 _ 62 _ 71 __ 671 (2)
t 2 566 Lumi __________71 _ 72 _ 89 _ 59 _ 65 _ 60 _ 57 _ 74 _ 46 _ 76 __ 669 (3)
t 2 566 mickger844posts_78 _ 63 _ 89 _ 68 _ 79 _ 59 _ --- _ 62 _ 39 _ 68 __ 605 (13)
04 558 MrSkinner_______83 _ 66 _ 64 _ 58 _ 73 _ 67 _ 71 _ 69 _ 58 _ 65 __ 674 (1)
t 5 556 waterways______75 _ 75 _ 58 _ 66 _ 75 _ 75 _ 72 _ 50 _ 60 _ 57 __ 663 (4)
t 5 556 sryanbruen _____27 _ 63 _ 52 _ 76 _ 65 _ 72 _ 70 _ 76 _ 62 _ 72 __ 635 (7)
07 544 Tae laidir _______86 _ 76 _ 76 _ 46 _ 47 _ 53 _ 57 _ 72 _ 55 _ 69 __ 637 (6)
08 536 Rameire ________69 _ 60 _ 70 _ 72 _ 59 _ 63 _ 55 _ 59 _ 63 _ 80 __ 650 (5)
09 532 Dacogawa ______52 _ 58 _ 89 _ 50 _ 75 _ 47 _ 66 _ 59 _ 61 _ 74 __ 631 (8)
10 531 DOCARCH ______53 _ 62 _ 61 _ 71 _ 71 _ 58 _ 75 _ 62 _ 46 _ 71 __ 630 (9)

11 526 Joe Public ______ 28 _ 63 _ 65 _ 72 _ 63 _ 59 _ 62 _ 49 _ 72 _ 70 __ 603 (14)
12 517 Jpmarn ________ 64 _ 60 _ 47 _ 75 _ 73 _ 51 _ 55 _ 37 _ 81 _ 58 __ 601 (15)

13 516 Norma L _______ 52 _ 65 _ 70 _ 57 _ 71 _ 61 _ 73 _ 55 _ 46 _ 64 __ 614 (11)

13 515 Rikand _________67 _ 76 _ 54 _ 54 _ 73 _ 60 _ 52 _ 60 _ 41 _ 71 __ 608 (12)
14 514 JD_____________69 _ 77 _ 32 _ 71 _ 61 _ 45 _ 67 _ 47 _ 60 _ 62 __ 591 (18t)
15 513 Dasa29 ________ 66 _ 58 _ 67 _ 53 _ 56 _ 53 _ 49 _ 75 _ 60 _ 78 __ 615 (10)
16 512 Bsal ___________65 _ 66 _ 66 _ 60 _ 53 _ 45 _ 52 _ 68 _ 61 _ 73 __ 609 (11)
17 511 John mac _______72 _ 57 _ 36 _ 44 _ 66 _ 57 _ 50 _ 66 _ 60 _ 83 __ 591 (18t)
18 508 200motels ______46 _ 68 _ 74 _ 61 _ 70 _ 22 _ 66 _ 55 _ 68 _ 37 __ 567 (20)
19 506 Pauldry_________53 _ 69 _ 45 _ 80 _ 56 _ 45 _ 55 _ 65 _ 68 _ 60 __ 596 (16)
20 503 M.T. Cranium ___ 46 _ 62 _ 78 _ 66 _ 69 _ 45 _ 58 _ 50 _ 57 _ 63 __ 594 (17)


21 498 kindredspirit ____--- _ 35 _ 65 _ 58 _ 61 _ 41 _ 79 _ 79 _ 49 _ 66 __ 533 (21)
22 ___ lostinashford ___ 69 _ 66 _ 63 _ 78 _ 77 _ 36 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- __ 389
23 ___ Schadenfreudia _ 65 _ 72 _ 58 _ 65 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- __ 260
24 ___ omicron _______ 76 _ 43 _ 72 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- __ 191
25 ___ Carnacalla _____ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 72 _ 33 _ --- _ 52 _ --- __ 157
26 ___ Timmyboy _____ --- _ 53 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ ---_ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ___ 53
27 ___ Elmer Blooker __ --- _ --- _ 51 _ --- _ --- _ ---_ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ___ 51
______________________________________________________________

So the top six are now very closely bunched with another five or so not very far behind in the best 8 of 10 section. Let's hope some of us can catch Con Sensus in these last two months.