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Milk Price- Please read Mod note in post #1

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Comments

  • #9602
    Farmer Ed
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 4,617 ✭✭✭Farmer Ed


    Good news on Agriland. Very possitive predictions


  • #9603
    rangler1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,497 ✭✭✭rangler1


    Farmer Ed wrote: »
    Good news on Agriland. Very possitive predictions

    Unfortunately no quota to stop the floodgates opening again and flooring the price


  • #9604
    yewtree
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 811 ✭✭✭yewtree


    Seems likely that production will be down in NZ this year due to heavy culling of cows, even if price starts to pick up they won't have cows to increase production.
    Also word from coops is production for July is back 2-3% on July 2015, seems finally farmers are taking notice of market signals. Big drop in uk supplies in the last 6weeks aswell
    I think there is likely to be modest increases of farm gate prices by the end of the year. The question is how quickly the recovery happens and at what price it levels off at, it has a long way to go before its back to sustainable levels.


  • #9605
    Farmer Ed
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 4,617 ✭✭✭Farmer Ed


    rangler1 wrote: »
    Unfortunately no quota to stop the floodgates opening again and flooring the price

    At lest you will have something to look forward to. No point and getting depressed when you find out you neighbour is not losing money.


  • #9606
    leg wax
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,296 ✭✭✭leg wax


    give it a year for any real movement in our pockets, all stored stuff will have to be cleared.


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  • #9607
    Timmaay
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,392 ✭✭✭✭Timmaay


    leg wax wrote: »
    give it a year for any real movement in our pockets, all stored stuff will have to be cleared.

    What does that realistically mean for most farmers? I'm lucky to have fairly small borrowings here, but the grand total of capital investment this year here will be 2 lorry loads of concrete ha.


  • #9608
    Bass Reeves
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,431 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    rangler1 wrote: »
    Unfortunately no quota to stop the floodgates opening again and flooring the price

    If cows are slaughtered it could take three years for numbers to rise again unless farmers have culled on the strenght of having excess heifers. In reality what happens is lads that are losing serious money cull strongly where as lads that can survive at 22-25c/L keep on producing. You also see older farmers exiting the businessand these can take a few years to replace this is what is a cyclic business

    Slava Ukrainii



  • #9609
    yosemitesam1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,095 ✭✭✭yosemitesam1


    Farmer Ed wrote: »
    Good news on Agriland. Very possitive predictions

    Very few would read it if it had negative views the whole time...


  • #9610
    kowtow
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,135 ✭✭✭kowtow


    Certainly signs that the market has found it's low for the time being, which is helpful even if the price itself is still depressing.

    On a macro level I'd be a bit concerned that the oil price remains so soft - meanwhile given that the harvest outlook is not the bumper it might have been in Europe it will be interesting to see how grains etc. play out for the rest of the summer..

    Time for a cautiously hopeful outlook, I would think, although I for one will be surprised if we see sustained highs anywhere near the level of a couple of years ago in the next cycle.


  • #9611
    rangler1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,497 ✭✭✭rangler1


    Bass Reeves wrote: »
    If cows are slaughtered it could take three years for numbers to rise again unless farmers have culled on the strenght of having excess heifers. In reality what happens is lads that are losing serious money cull strongly where as lads that can survive at 22-25c/L keep on producing. You also see older farmers exiting the businessand these can take a few years to replace this is what is a cyclic business

    all I see around me is farmers driving on, certainly not cutting back


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  • #9612
    whelan2
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,788 ✭✭✭✭whelan2


    Glanbia firmly at the bottom of all the tables in the milk price league in the journal


  • #9613
    boggerman1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,069 ✭✭✭boggerman1


    whelan2 wrote: »
    Glanbia firmly at the bottom of all the tables in the milk price league in the journal

    But hey they are great lads though giving out "free" money in their advanced payment scam...sorry scheme.


  • #9614
    Bass Reeves
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,431 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    rangler1 wrote: »
    all I see around me is farmers driving on, certainly not cutting back

    Irish number relative to world wide production is immaterial we produce 2% of the world export product. It is good that Irish milk production has come through so strong as it shows that our cost base is comparable with any other world producer. Because Irish production base has not dropped to any great extent it means that we should reap the benefit of the upswing in prices

    Slava Ukrainii



  • #9615
    kevthegaff
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,084 ✭✭✭kevthegaff


    I have a feeling it will be a slow upturn if any ATM. Hopefully improvement will come by spring 17 for all our sake bar rangler lol


  • #9616
    Buford T. Justice XIX
    Closed Accounts Posts: 20,633 ✭✭✭✭Buford T. Justice XIX


    whelan2 wrote: »
    Glanbia firmly at the bottom of all the tables in the milk price league in the journal

    Sure you're looking at it the wrong way round. Turn it around and they are on the top. #sorted


  • #9617
    kowtow
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,135 ✭✭✭kowtow


    Bass Reeves wrote:
    Irish number relative to world wide production is immaterial we produce 2% of the world export product. It is good that Irish milk production has come through so strong as it shows that our cost base is comparable with any other world producer. Because Irish production base has not dropped to any great extent it means that we should reap the benefit of the upswing in prices


    I'm not sure it shows anything about our cost base except perhaps that most of our farms are not yet sufficiently in debt, nor large enough, that they need to make a profit.

    If we have in fact reached a low in the market for the time being what will be interesting is how much and how fast expansion resumes on the near term.


  • #9618
    Dawggone
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,506 ✭✭✭Dawggone


    kowtow wrote: »
    I'm not sure it shows anything about our cost base except perhaps that most of our farms are not yet sufficiently in debt, nor large enough, that they need to make a profit.

    +1.


  • #9619
    Dawggone
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,506 ✭✭✭Dawggone


    If milk hits to 30cpl or more (25cpl Irish price), I for one will be turning on the taps. Should amount to another 2k litres per cow or more...I have to say I'm looking forward to making a few quid to cover losses from tillage.


  • #9620
    Farmer Ed
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 4,617 ✭✭✭Farmer Ed


    Dairy processors urged to pass on market gains to farmers in tough financial year @agrilandIreland http://www.agriland.ie/farming-news/dairy-processors-urged-to-pass-on-market-gains-to-farmers-in-tough-financial-year/


  • #9621
    rangler1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,497 ✭✭✭rangler1


    kevthegaff wrote: »
    I have a feeling it will be a slow upturn if any ATM. Hopefully improvement will come by spring 17 for all our sake bar rangler lol

    Long enough farming to have become a realist, have been heavily criticised in the past for predicting what happened in dairying in 2015.
    Can't have your eyes in the sky all the time.......especially when your feet's in the ****e


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  • #9622
    Farmer Ed
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 4,617 ✭✭✭Farmer Ed


    Dawggone wrote: »
    Short answer no.
    I dislike dairying.

    I've managed tillage farms in the past but could never whip up some enthusiasm for the job. I suppose I'm just too old now.

    ??????????????????????????????????????????


  • #9623
    Dawggone
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,506 ✭✭✭Dawggone


    Farmer Ed wrote: »
    ??????????????????????????????????????????

    Read the thread, ed.


  • #9624
    mahoney_j
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,718 ✭✭✭✭mahoney_j


    Dawggone wrote: »
    If milk hits to 30cpl or more (25cpl Irish price), I for one will be turning on the taps. Should amount to another 2k litres per cow or more...I have to say I'm looking forward to making a few quid to cover losses from tillage.

    Where's ur prediction of milk hitting 14 c and the longer the better it stays there now dwag ???markets and futures markets whilst still in early stages all point to significant price rises next year .cows won't be in New Zealand ,oz nor from looks of it will be on farm finance to shove there production.and around these parts of the world a lit of on farm finances aren't pretty,been at 3 different farm walks in last 2 weeks and common demonstor is cash flow and how tight it is and will be next spring .


  • #9625
    rangler1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,497 ✭✭✭rangler1


    mahoney_j wrote: »
    Where's ur prediction of milk hitting 14 c and the longer the better it stays there now dwag ???markets and futures markets whilst still in early stages all point to significant price rises next year .cows won't be in New Zealand ,oz nor from looks of it will be on farm finance to shove there production.and around these parts of the world a lit of on farm finances aren't pretty,been at 3 different farm walks in last 2 weeks and common demonstor is cash flow and how tight it is and will be next spring .

    Be hard to hit 14c when intervention is paying 20c, you could be experiencing the ''dead cat bounce'' at the moment....wouldn't be changing the range rover just yet


  • #9626
    Dawggone
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,506 ✭✭✭Dawggone


    mahoney_j wrote: »
    Where's ur prediction of milk hitting 14 c and the longer the better it stays there now dwag ???markets and futures markets whilst still in early stages all point to significant price rises next year .cows won't be in New Zealand ,oz nor from looks of it will be on farm finance to shove there production.and around these parts of the world a lit of on farm finances aren't pretty,been at 3 different farm walks in last 2 weeks and common demonstor is cash flow and how tight it is and will be next spring .

    1. I never predicted that milk would go to 14cpl. That would have been foolish when intervention put a floor on milk at 20cpl. I did wish for the end of intervention though...
    2. Oil remains soft.
    3. After last years world record harvest this years harvest is on track to be the second biggest.
    4. As I've already posted, if there is a hardening of milk price it will be modest and if it pushes my price over 30cpl, I'll turn on the taps...and all of Eu with me.
    I'm currently getting 28cpl...


  • #9627
    kevthegaff
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,084 ✭✭✭kevthegaff


    mahoney_j wrote:
    Where's ur prediction of milk hitting 14 c and the longer the better it stays there now dwag ???markets and futures markets whilst still in early stages all point to significant price rises next year .cows won't be in New Zealand ,oz nor from looks of it will be on farm finance to shove there production.and around these parts of the world a lit of on farm finances aren't pretty,been at 3 different farm walks in last 2 weeks and common demonstor is cash flow and how tight it is and will be next spring .


    All wer seeing is a movement in where milk will come from, perhaps nz aus will drop back, but theres plenty of nations queuing to fill the gap. Agree tho on cash flow v tight, if price looks like strengthening might go cap in hand to Boi and up supply lol #onelastbark


  • #9628
    whelan2
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,788 ✭✭✭✭whelan2


    This is 1.50 for 500ml , what would it cost glanbia to make it. Lads at eldest lads football think its the biz


  • #9629
    OverRide
    Closed Accounts Posts: 665 ✭✭✭OverRide


    whelan2 wrote: »
    This is 1.50 for 500ml , what would it cost glanbia to make it. Lads at eldest lads football think its the biz

    Yeah I had some the other day to try,it's very popular in sports already
    It's basically vanilla flavoured milk with protein added which they can source from their own nutritionals division
    I'd say the only extra cost is the labelling


  • #9630
    Farmer Ed
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 4,617 ✭✭✭Farmer Ed


    An older farmer was telling me that tradionally he always felt milk per gallon was roughly the same price per gallon as tractor diesel. If his theory was to be applied today, we have a bit to go yet.


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  • #9631
    Farmer Ed
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 4,617 ✭✭✭Farmer Ed


    OverRide wrote: »
    Yeah I had some the other day to try,it's very popular in sports already
    It's basically vanilla flavoured milk with protein added which they can source from their own nutritionals division
    I'd say the only extra cost is the labelling


    Great initiative but hard to see the logic in adding protein to milk only to have to add sugar and vanilla to flavor it. Kind of defeats the whole health benefits augment I would have thought. But if people want to buy it. Brilliant!


This discussion has been closed.
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