Milk Price- Please read Mod note in post #1

Dawggone · 21-07-2016 11:14PM

Buford T. Justice V wrote: »

That's gas, Dawggone, coming from a farmer in a country that has some of the highest protectionism of its farmers at the expense of other countries in the 'single market' :pac:

??
Explain?

Waffletraktor · 21-07-2016 11:21PM

alps wrote: »

Look....

All this negativity towards dairy farmers getting a leg up has to stop....

We all know that dairy farmers work harder, work longer, work smarter. They contribute much more to the national economy. They are better farmers, technically aware better looking and pull hotter babe's.

Bad dairy farmers are as scarce as a cork man with an inferiority complex...

Im sure if people were paid on effort you would be driving a lambo but sadly its not the case, its easy to pat your self on the back in protected markets.
Welcome to the real world, ive already seen wheat double and halve in price twice in 18 months in the last 9 years. The end of quotas parties wanted out now live with it, if you eat all that cake you will get fat and lazy... again?

Keepgrowing · 21-07-2016 11:31PM

The German production is slowing as are the Diych and the Danes. The Kiwis aren't sending cows off farm for the winter rather they are culling bottom performers and wintering at home to save costs. All in all we've most likely hit the bottom so onwards and upwards.

mf240 · 21-07-2016 11:39PM

Would there be too much milk. Could that be the problem at all.

Theres only so many easy singles an average Chinese family will eat in a week. Maybe if we started giving the free prawn crakers with larger orders?

6270red · 21-07-2016 11:46PM

Dawggone wrote: »

You makin' easy dollar now?
If possible ask Dad.

Would if I could. Don't think the man ever made an easy dollar and frankly I think it's rude for you to assume he did. Not everyone is like your neighbour.
Your I told you so attitude belittles some of your otherwise excellent posts.

Farmer Ed · 22-07-2016 12:10AM

mf240 wrote: »

Would there be too much milk. Could that be the problem at all.

Theres only so many easy singles an average Chinese family will eat in a week. Maybe if we started giving the free prawn crakers with larger orders?

No so sure building a dairy industry around the notion of selling to a country that is 90% lactose intolerant, was never really such a well thought out idea in the first place?

What next? We all get rich selling bacon to Saudi Arabia?

Water John · 22-07-2016 12:15AM

The market is selling milk products esp protein to wealthier young and older people. That is the key and serious sized market.

Buford T. Justice XIX · 22-07-2016 07:56AM

Dawggone wrote: »

??
Explain?

Well have no coupled production here, Dawggone, but it still exists in France.

And anytime French farmers get upset, they go and protest and dump Milk and slurry and burn trucks full of animals until the government relents and gives them more money. That's my perception of French Farm politics and that of a lot of farmers over here.

It's the pot calling the kettle black, tbh, Dawg.

kowtow · 22-07-2016 08:02AM

whelan2 wrote:

Wonder what milk price banks were working off for these loans?

About â‚¬10,000 an acre probably.

kowtow · 22-07-2016 08:12AM

Dawggone wrote:

Has anyone taken stock of the fact that it just *might* be possible that dairy may be the absolute bottom of the pile as regards income??

Historically dairy repaired farms which had been misused through booms - the cow gave back the land her fertility and the milking gave the farmer back his morals.

kowtow · 22-07-2016 08:28AM

alps wrote:

Bad dairy farmers are as scarce as a cork man with an inferiority complex...

As the only bad dairy farmer in the entire history of Cork I can vouch for the above absolutely.

Timmaay · 22-07-2016 01:17PM

From today's ifj. Sounds like a total bubble, and if it bursts no farmer will win. I have to laugh at the typical journal postive spin for the Irish context, we are all lowly borrowed so low cost.

Buford T. Justice XIX · 22-07-2016 01:31PM

Timmaay wrote: »

From today's ifj. Sounds like a total bubble, and if it bursts no farmer will win. I have to laugh at the typical journal postive spin for the Irish context, we are all lowly borrowed so low cost.

It's a bit like NZ with high land prices allowing lots of borrowing against it.

Sooner or later, land prices, just like house prices here, will have to be valued at their true cost and there will be a fine hole in their banks balance sheets when that happens.

jaymla627 · 22-07-2016 01:37PM

Timmaay wrote: »

From today's ifj. Sounds like a total bubble, and if it bursts no farmer will win. I have to laugh at the typical journal postive spin for the Irish context, we are all lowly borrowed so low cost.

Could have a situation where the parents could buy back the farm if it where to go bankrupt for half noting either, it's some pension scheme for retiring farmers in fairness

kowtow · 22-07-2016 01:43PM

Buford T. Justice V wrote: »

It's a bit like NZ with high land prices allowing lots of borrowing against it.

Sooner or later, land prices, just like house prices here, will have to be valued at their true cost and there will be a fine hole in their banks balance sheets when that happens.

Land prices around the world have been accelerating out of all proportion to economic value for about ten years.. I have to say that there is no single explanation except that when interest rates are negative and money can be had for nothing land at least has a little carry, and is a traditional hedge against inflation - it might just be a global bet that politicians are too vain to allow deflation to happen.. what is clear is that like everything else land will not retain such a high price relative to output indefinitely.

There are signs of growth vanishing in both the UK and in Ireland, so we'll have to see what happens next, but I would regard agricultural land at the headline prices of the past few years as a fairly high risk proposition.

alps · 22-07-2016 03:12PM

Buford T. Justice V wrote: »

Well have no coupled production here, Dawggone, but it still exists in France.

And anytime French farmers get upset, they go and protest and dump Milk and slurry and burn trucks full of animals until the government relents and gives them more money. That's my perception of French Farm politics and that of a lot of farmers over here.

It's the pot calling the kettle black, tbh, Dawg.

Here's a quotation from a German Farmer at a recent dairy event in France..

"The French like to drink wine to relax ...while the rest of us drink coffee to stay awake"

OverRide · 22-07-2016 05:47PM

Timmaay wrote: »

From today's ifj. Sounds like a total bubble, and if it bursts no farmer will win. I have to laugh at the typical journal postive spin for the Irish context, we are all lowly borrowed so low cost.

I love the bankers line that debt has to be patient

OverRide · 22-07-2016 05:51PM

kowtow wrote: »

Land prices around the world have been accelerating out of all proportion to economic value for about ten years.. I have to say that there is no single explanation except that when interest rates are negative and money can be had for nothing land at least has a little carry, and is a traditional hedge against inflation - it might just be a global bet that politicians are too vain to allow deflation to happen.. what is clear is that like everything else land will not retain such a high price relative to output indefinitely.

There are signs of growth vanishing in both the UK and in Ireland, so we'll have to see what happens next, but I would regard agricultural land at the headline prices of the past few years as a fairly high risk proposition.

Land near me a sizeable enough block non res made 17k an acre last month
That's in co Wexford valuing a 100 acres at €1.7 million
Shur where would you be going or how long would you be earning that in profit off 80 or 90 cows?

The million would keep you living for 30 years if you spent 30k pa

mf240 · 22-07-2016 06:47PM

OverRide wrote: »

Land near me a sizeable enough block non res made 17k an acre last month
That's in co Wexford valuing a 100 acres at €1.7 million
Shur where would you be going or how long would you be earning that in profit off 80 or 90 cows?

The million would keep you living for 30 years if you spent 30k pa

You'd want a great job to be able to afford to milk cows these days:)

Waffletraktor · 22-07-2016 06:48PM

OverRide wrote: »

Land near me a sizeable enough block non res made 17k an acre last month
That's in co Wexford valuing a 100 acres at €1.7 million
Shur where would you be going or how long would you be earning that in profit off 80 or 90 cows?

The million would keep you living for 30 years if you spent 30k pa

Roll over money from the by-pass?

kowtow · 22-07-2016 11:21PM

OverRide wrote:

I love the bankers line that debt has to be patient

Its right up there with "where are the customer's yachts?"

newacc2015 · 22-07-2016 11:39PM

kowtow wrote: »

Land prices around the world have been accelerating out of all proportion to economic value for about ten years.. I have to say that there is no single explanation except that when interest rates are negative and money can be had for nothing land at least has a little carry, and is a traditional hedge against inflation - it might just be a global bet that politicians are too vain to allow deflation to happen.. what is clear is that like everything else land will not retain such a high price relative to output indefinitely.

There are signs of growth vanishing in both the UK and in Ireland, so we'll have to see what happens next, but I would regard agricultural land at the headline prices of the past few years as a fairly high risk proposition.

IMO it is not the negative interest rates that is only causing agricultural land to soar. It is the fact that it is one of the few assets that is tax efficient anymore. In Ireland the Government has been closing all the obvious tax avoidance schemes to the extent if you ring up a tax advisor to suggest what to do. They have very little suggestions left

But agricultural land is a fantastic way pass on money to your children tax free. It is one of the few things tax advisor say is left for tax avoidance at the moment. It is commonly used in the UK too

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2015/sep/02/britain-farmland-tax-haven-reform

Even in India farmers are used by the super rich to have a flow of tax free income.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-04/rich-landowners-reap-billions-from-india-tax-loophole

If you lease a rental property as BTL investor. You have to pay LPT, RTB and a marginal tax rate of up 52/53% on your income. Long term farm land is tax free. There are no massive fluctuations in price like regular property.

Keepgrowing · 23-07-2016 09:10AM

Curious to know have many here experience of farming through the '80's. I mean with money borrowed and paying massive interest.

We had high interest and high inflation, an absolute killer combination. Now I do recognise that not farms were heavily borrowed but those that were really struggled.

I'm a product of that time and what's happening now as regards price while difficult is a walk in the park in comparison. We managed to get through without selling any land despite savage pressure from our lender. In a kinda perverted way it made us stronger despite the fact it took us till the mid 90's to get going properly again.

Having been there I know that this downturn will pass but they are now going to come more frequently. When we get through this if we're not better prepared for the next trough it's been a wasted experience however if it prepares us better it will be a great life lesson.

I am including all stakeholders in the dairy industry from the relief milker to the strategists in our processors. There needs to be a see change in how we do business from product mix to flattening the supply curve. Despite what many believe winter milk is very doable on a grass based system with the right cow and hitting big growths mid summer in order to conserve bales to feed during housed period. I think we need to move away from the belief that maize, beet and expensive rations are necessary.

This flattening can't happen without the processors changing their product mix and thus paying the necessary premium for HIGH QUALITY winter milk.

whelan2 · 23-07-2016 09:20AM

Keepgrowing wrote: »

Curious to know have many here experience of farming through the '80's. I mean with money borrowed and paying massive interest.

We had high interest and high inflation, an absolute killer combination. Now I do recognise that not farms were heavily borrowed but those that were really struggled.

I'm a product of that time and what's happening now as regards price while difficult is a walk in the park in comparison. We managed to get through without selling any land despite savage pressure from our lender. In a kinda perverted way it made us stronger despite the fact it took us till the mid 90's to get going properly again.

Having been there I know that this downturn will pass but they are now going to come more frequently. When we get through this if we're not better prepared for the next trough it's been a wasted experience however if it prepares us better it will be a great life lesson.

I am including all stakeholders in the dairy industry from the relief milker to the strategists in our processors. There needs to be a see change in how we do business from product mix to flattening the supply curve. Despite what many believe winter milk is very doable on a grass based system with the right cow and hitting big growths mid summer in order to conserve bales to feed during housed period. I think we need to move away from the belief that maize, beet and expensive rations are necessary.

This flattening can't happen without the processors changing their product mix and thus paying the necessary premium for HIGH QUALITY winter milk.

Alot of farmers didnt have difficulties in 2012/3 I learnt a hell of alot from that time , just back on my feet again last year when price went down . I reckon it makes you think twice about every decision as no one want to go back to hard times. Btw this year is nothing compared to 2012/3 , We have loads of grass and weather is ok

Buford T. Justice XIX · 23-07-2016 09:48AM

Keepgrowing wrote: »

Curious to know have many here experience of farming through the '80's. I mean with money borrowed and paying massive interest.

We had high interest and high inflation, an absolute killer combination. Now I do recognise that not farms were heavily borrowed but those that were really struggled.

I'm a product of that time and what's happening now as regards price while difficult is a walk in the park in comparison. We managed to get through without selling any land despite savage pressure from our lender. In a kinda perverted way it made us stronger despite the fact it took us till the mid 90's to get going properly again.

Having been there I know that this downturn will pass but they are now going to come more frequently. When we get through this if we're not better prepared for the next trough it's been a wasted experience however if it prepares us better it will be a great life lesson.

I am including all stakeholders in the dairy industry from the relief milker to the strategists in our processors. There needs to be a see change in how we do business from product mix to flattening the supply curve. Despite what many believe winter milk is very doable on a grass based system with the right cow and hitting big growths mid summer in order to conserve bales to feed during housed period. I think we need to move away from the belief that maize, beet and expensive rations are necessary.

This flattening can't happen without the processors changing their product mix and thus paying the necessary premium for HIGH QUALITY winter milk.

The high quality milk is there but the product mix isn't. Most big companies have a constant stream of new products coming every year and the old ones are sold/discontinued. The last 2 premium products here were Baileys and Cheesestrings and nothing else in the last 15 years.

My abiding memory of the 80s was getting paid in May 87 for our first milk supplies in 7 years and getting 80p/gallon. We were delighted, good price and cash flow through the year. Everybody else was crying as milk had come down from £1/gallon but we were thrilled.

It all depends on how you decide to look at it, I think.

freedominacup · 23-07-2016 09:55AM

Buford T. Justice V wrote: »

My abiding memory of the 80s was getting paid in May 87 for our first milk supplies in 7 years and getting 80p/gallon. We were delighted, good price and cash flow through the year. Everybody else was crying as milk had come down from £1/gallon but we were.

This is why I smile every time I hear comments about new entrants under pressure.

mahoney_j · 23-07-2016 10:02AM

Keepgrowing wrote: »

Curious to know have many here experience of farming through the '80's. I mean with money borrowed and paying massive interest.

We had high interest and high inflation, an absolute killer combination. Now I do recognise that not farms were heavily borrowed but those that were really struggled.

I'm a product of that time and what's happening now as regards price while difficult is a walk in the park in comparison. We managed to get through without selling any land despite savage pressure from our lender. In a kinda perverted way it made us stronger despite the fact it took us till the mid 90's to get going properly again.

Having been there I know that this downturn will pass but they are now going to come more frequently. When we get through this if we're not better prepared for the next trough it's been a wasted experience however if it prepares us better it will be a great life lesson.

I am including all stakeholders in the dairy industry from the relief milker to the strategists in our processors. There needs to be a see change in how we do business from product mix to flattening the supply curve. Despite what many believe winter milk is very doable on a grass based system with the right cow and hitting big growths mid summer in order to conserve bales to feed during housed period. I think we need to move away from the belief that maize, beet and expensive rations are necessary.

This flattening can't happen without the processors changing their product mix and thus paying the necessary premium for HIGH QUALITY winter milk.

I remember from a few years back my dad showed me milk dockets ,bank statements ,cattle receipts etc etc from late 70s and eighties ..some striking things .he got married in 1977 ,65 people at weeding receipts from church ,hotel etc amounted to 240 pounds !!!,went to lisdoonvara for honeymoon ,amount unaccounted for !!!
Built house for 28 k at an interest rate of 21.8% in 1978.6 unit parlour including shed 850 pounds .**** hit the fan in 1984 ,neighbour and his cows got brucellosis and our herd got depopulated .he farmed through 2009 and his opinion on that year was vastly different to severe tough times back then .take my mortgage at moment ,granted its a lot bigger than dads but my interest rate is 0.75% above ecb on tracker ,pratically free money

freedominacup · 23-07-2016 11:25AM

mahoney_j wrote: »

I remember from a few years back my dad showed me milk dockets ,bank statements ,cattle receipts etc etc from late 70s and eighties ..some striking things .he got married in 1977 ,65 people at weeding receipts from church ,hotel etc amounted to 240 pounds !!!,went to lisdoonvara for honeymoon ,amount unaccounted for !!!
Built house for 28 k at an interest rate of 21.8% in 1978.6 unit parlour including shed 850 pounds .**** hit the fan in 1984 ,neighbour and his cows got brucellosis and our herd got depopulated .he farmed through 2009 and his opinion on that year was vastly different to severe tough times back then .take my mortgage at moment ,granted its a lot bigger than dads but my interest rate is 0.75% above ecb on tracker ,pratically free money

The first time the oul boy and his brothers got 3 tonne s.barley crops they were paying around a half a tonne per acre in rent and a tonne of barley was worth around the same as a weeks wages for the guys they were employing. Money made those years.

kowtow · 23-07-2016 11:29AM

newacc2015 wrote: »

IMO it is not the negative interest rates that is only causing agricultural land to soar. It is the fact that it is one of the few assets that is tax efficient anymore. In Ireland the Government has been closing all the obvious tax avoidance schemes to the extent if you ring up a tax advisor to suggest what to do. They have very little suggestions left

But agricultural land is a fantastic way pass on money to your children tax free. It is one of the few things tax advisor say is left for tax avoidance at the moment. It is commonly used in the UK too

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2015/sep/02/britain-farmland-tax-haven-reform

Even in India farmers are used by the super rich to have a flow of tax free income.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-04/rich-landowners-reap-billions-from-india-tax-loophole

If you lease a rental property as BTL investor. You have to pay LPT, RTB and a marginal tax rate of up 52/53% on your income. Long term farm land is tax free. There are no massive fluctuations in price like regular property.

I think inheritance tax is certainly a part of it, particularly in the UK and in Ireland, but it's interesting to reflect that exemptions for agricultural land have always been there, and have in fact become harder to access in the years when land prices have risen most sharply.

However, it's certainly part of the picture. Land has a carry, albeit a tiny one, in a world where yield is scarce.

Dawggone · 23-07-2016 11:59AM

Buford T. Justice V wrote: »

Well have no coupled production here, Dawggone, but it still exists in France.

And anytime French farmers get upset, they go and protest and dump Milk and slurry and burn trucks full of animals until the government relents and gives them more money. That's my perception of French Farm politics and that of a lot of farmers over here.

It's the pot calling the kettle black, tbh, Dawg.

Coupled production?? Explain.

That 14cpl that you've been offered for nothing was organised by the French German and Polish. Any handouts organised by rioting French farmers have been for all states.
For the record I didn't even qualify for the ski holiday hand out.

I've put up on the harvest thread my exact yields and today's prices...makes milk at 20cpl look like a lotto win.

Milk Price- Please read Mod note in post #1

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