Milk Price- Please read Mod note in post #1

oxjkqg · 21-07-2016 08:41AM

ButterFat 3.82
Protein 3.46
SCC 163
24.31 cent per litre nett
no milk in fixed scheme
Kerry supplier

kowtow · 21-07-2016 08:42AM

boggerman1 wrote:

I for one if will not take up the option of that money for stopping milking.I don't believe that dairy farmers should be singled out for special treatment either.it seems that the guys that have sunk themselves with fancy new parlours,doubling of numbers on the back of cheerleading from the journal and teagasc and have big superlevy bills self inflicted are crying the most.we are in a global market and just have to get on with it.if u can't stand the heat get the hell out of the kitchen.I know if I go tits up it will be myself to blame but I would be determined to start again if and make a better go of it

Hell I haven't been given any money by anyone for starting milking yet. It would be a pity to take some for stopping.

kowtow · 21-07-2016 08:54AM

My plan B is coming from Holland later in the year..

kevthegaff · 21-07-2016 08:59AM

kowtow wrote:

My plan B is coming from Holland later in the year..

Are you allowed to bring them in??

kowtow · 21-07-2016 09:02AM

kevthegaff wrote:

Are you allowed to bring them in??

Ah yes.. everything is legal till about plan 'E'

whelan2 · 21-07-2016 09:20AM

My 2 big loans are finishing up in the next 12 months, plan was to do a bit of building . Will see how milk price is when loans are finished whether we will build or slow down, no point slaving away for feck all return

freedominacup · 21-07-2016 10:22AM

whelan2 wrote: »

My 2 big loans are finishing up in the next 12 months, plan was to do a bit of building . Will see how milk price is when loans are finished whether we will build or slow down, no point slaving away for feck all return

You're young enough, your eldest seems to be heading home, you're going to have to keep her lit for a while yet.

Water John · 21-07-2016 10:44AM

ICOS throwing a wobbler on this 14 cent, Ha.
IFA response not much better.

Keepgrowing · 21-07-2016 11:05AM

Water John wrote: »

ICOS throwing a wobbler on this 14 cent, Ha.
IFA response not much better.

To be expected, I'd say processors are squealing at the prospect of reduced through put. The bleat about the bad markets while their margins are unaffected

whelan2 · 21-07-2016 11:06AM

freedominacup wrote: »

You're young enough, your eldest seems to be heading home, you're going to have to keep her lit for a while yet.

Don't want to pressure him into staying at home. Don't think farming will be a great way of life in the future.

kowtow · 21-07-2016 11:12AM

whelan2 wrote: »

Don't want to pressure him into staying at home. Don't think farming will be a great way of life in the future.

It'll always be a great way of life, the question is whether it will be a good living.

But I wouldn't give up hope just yet. Things change.

I'm not sure farming for the next generation will be the way our grandfathers thought it would be.. but I'm equally certain it won't turn out quite the way the agri-business monsters think it will either.

Buford T. Justice XIX · 21-07-2016 01:34PM

Keepgrowing wrote: »

To be expected, I'd say processors are squealing at the prospect of reduced through put. The bleat about the bad markets while their margins are unaffected

This X 1000.

I can't see any change though, unless it gets so bad that 10-15% of suppliers get out. That would take up to 10% of milk production but it's always the small supplier that's under pressure first. It may start to dawn on processors at that stage that they are more dependent on us than we are on them.

boggerman1 · 21-07-2016 02:19PM

Letter in the post from my co-op today offering to put up to 25% of supply from july1st to 31st Dec at a fixed price of €0.249 vat inc.I haven't any milk in any of the schemes so far.my co-op is centenary

kowtow · 21-07-2016 05:11PM

Buford T. Justice V wrote: »

This X 1000.

I can't see any change though, unless it gets so bad that 10-15% of suppliers get out. That would take up to 10% of milk production but it's always the small supplier that's under pressure first. It may start to dawn on processors at that stage that they are more dependent on us than we are on them.

The only thing at the moment in Ireland is that - all else being equal - the small supplier may well be the one carrying no / less debt & rented land. If that does turn out to be true then on a cash cost basis anyway his pips will take a bit longer to squeak than those of the farm that has expanded fast, especially if there is a superlevy issue as well.

kevthegaff · 21-07-2016 06:51PM

Not too many plan B's, co ops don't need too many msa s as farmers are reluctant with other options. Can see some older guys leaving if crisis prolongs, some of the bigger guys could be working for the banks for the future

whelan2 · 21-07-2016 06:57PM

kevthegaff wrote: »

Not too many plan B's, co ops don't need too many msa s as farmers are reluctant with other options. Can see some older guys leaving if crisis prolongs, some of the bigger guys could be working for the banks for the future

Thats it though, if you owe alot of money over a long time what is the plan b?

alps · 21-07-2016 07:27PM

boggerman1 wrote: »

Letter in the post from my co-op today offering to put up to 25% of supply from july1st to 31st Dec at a fixed price of €0.249 vat inc.I haven't any milk in any of the schemes so far.my co-op is centenary

What's your current price boggerman? Bit to weigh up here. Are you contracted to supply milk in December if you sign up? Does it remove your choice of drying off early if weather/feed availability or even the price of the rest of your milk dictates?
Would it mean you could not sign up to taking 14c/l for reducing supply?
Or could the offer of this fixed option be to offset other offerings now available?

It is short term and you should be set to benefit over the higher supply months of July to October...

Farmer Ed · 21-07-2016 07:48PM

whelan2 wrote: »

Thats it though, if you owe alot of money over a long time what is the plan b?

Would say either find an alternative income fast or just hope and pray things will get better. Otherwise the only other plan b would be to sell out and chalk it down to a bad experience. Not something most red blooded farmers would chose to do without a heavy heart. Very stressful to be in that situation. No point in blaming or pointing the finger or feeling smug. Horrible situation to be in.

Buford T. Justice XIX · 21-07-2016 07:53PM

kowtow wrote: »

The only thing at the moment in Ireland is that - all else being equal - the small supplier may well be the one carrying no / less debt & rented land. If that does turn out to be true then on a cash cost basis anyway his pips will take a bit longer to squeak than those of the farm that has expanded fast, especially if there is a superlevy issue as well.

Good point, kt, debt is the real killer in low price years. You will still have to pay regardless of input or output prices unless you can get some sort of debt deal with the banks.

I was talking to a bank rep last Tuesday and he was saying that banks prefer if people realise there is a problem on the way and discuss options to deal with it before it becomes a problem, 'just like we always do,' sez he.

I didn't like to point out my experiences of that discussion with him in case i would be walking back to my car:rolleyes: but that's just my experience:(

kevthegaff · 21-07-2016 08:09PM

I'll do my best to make my repayments, nothing worst than seeing them increase through interest. Talking to accountant recently, many guys gone interest only, I'd get another source of income if possible rather than this scenario. Honestly believe that there is many hard cases we don't know of YET. Heard a story that this new glanbia loan means they can clear some merchant credit through some of the funds.

Dawggone · 21-07-2016 09:09PM

kowtow wrote: »

My plan B is coming from Holland later in the year..

Pray tell...

Dawggone · 21-07-2016 09:14PM

whelan2 wrote: »

My 2 big loans are finishing up in the next 12 months, plan was to do a bit of building . Will see how milk price is when loans are finished whether we will build or slow down, no point slaving away for feck all return

Opportunities will come your way Whelan. I would hold back on building, because you can build anytime but acres are hard got. Hold tough.

Dawggone · 21-07-2016 09:17PM

kowtow wrote: »

It'll always be a great way of life, the question is whether it will be a good living.

But I wouldn't give up hope just yet. Things change.

I'm not sure farming for the next generation will be the way our grandfathers thought it would be.. but I'm equally certain it won't turn out quite the way the agri-business monsters think it will either.

The Agri-business monsters have quite a grip on commodities.

Dawggone · 21-07-2016 09:19PM

whelan2 wrote: »

Don't want to pressure him into staying at home. Don't think farming will be a great way of life in the future.

Won't be too bad for those with scale.

Keepgrowing · 21-07-2016 09:24PM

Dawggone wrote: »

Won't be too bad for those with scale.

Not too many agree with you from what I'm reading on here. Most seem to think that the business' that borrowed to expand will be the first casualties along with the poor old new entrants.

Dawggone · 21-07-2016 09:28PM

Great to finally see some reality and honesty on here...shame that 14cpl lotto gift from Brussels gets the discussion going.

I've a feeling that it won't be offered in Ireland. We'll see...

By the way, bonus points for anyone if you can realistically explain why you deserve 14cpl for 'scratchin da rollers'...

whelan2 · 21-07-2016 09:32PM

Dawggone wrote: »

Won't be too bad for those with scale.

Define scale

Timmaay · 21-07-2016 09:34PM

Keepgrowing wrote: »

Not too many agree with you from what I'm reading on here. Most seem to think that the business' that borrowed to expand will be the first casualties along with the poor old new entrants.

Obviously rubbish. The casualties will be the people who either fail to adapter to change, or the ones who lapped up every single Chinese boom story/white gold etc and have gone utterly wild on expansion based on an unrealistic average milk price in the mid 30s etc.

Keepgrowing · 21-07-2016 09:37PM

kevthegaff wrote: »

I'll do my best to make my repayments, nothing worst than seeing them increase through interest. Talking to accountant recently, many guys gone interest only, I'd get another source of income if possible rather than this scenario. Honestly believe that there is many hard cases we don't know of YET. Heard a story that this new glanbia loan means they can clear some merchant credit through some of the funds.

While I won't challenge your choice not to go interest only I don't entirely agree. If one has gotten the basics right and have borrowed for the correct investments in your business I'd see no reason not to go this route.

This period is about survival not profit. The cardinal rule is that a business doesn't have to make a profit every year. This however is cold comfort if your repayments are incorrectly structured. If the farm bills can't be paid or worse still the household ex's can't be met then I think all avenues need exploration.

I really don't think the full extent of the low price has hit at farm level yet. The real pinch will be when contractors, merchants and more scarily Mr Revenue call.

Sit down and itemise all creditors. Restructure borrowings and if possible go interest only as all your doing is paying a fee to free up cash. So what if a loan takes a few years longer to pay, the bank don't actually care so you shouldn't.

Identify all passengers and any surplus stock. Plan to liquidate before everyone else who hasn't done this exercise does. These guys will be price takers as they'll have to sell regardless thus forcing prices even lower.

My tuppence

6270red · 21-07-2016 09:38PM

whelan2 wrote: »

Define scale

Scale = good farmer that doesn't get carried away, is able to make a comfortable living for themselves. This is not defined by numbers!

Milk Price- Please read Mod note in post #1

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