The Open Championship, Royal Troon, 14h to 17th July 2016

Troon is my least favourite Open venue.

Five of the eight winners at Troon won their first and only major there. (Havers; Weiskopf; Calcavecchia; Leonard; Hamilton.)

Some of the winners have been very good putters, probably because the green are flatter than other venues. This suggests that it is one of the easier major tests and an upset winner is possible.

1923: Arthur Havers holed a bunker shot on the 72nd hole to win his only major title. 72 holes played in two days.
1950: Bobbly Locke (a great putter) won by two.
1962: Arnold Palmer (a great putter) won by six. The last Open where all players had to qualify (36 holes in the two days before the 1st round).
1973: Tom Weiskopf won his only major by three in a bad weather last round.
1982: Tom Watson won by a shot (won the US Open the previous month.)
Bobby Clampett was 7 shots clear after 5 holes of the final round but finished 10th, almost a big upset.
1989: Mark Calcavecchia won a 4 hole playoff against Greg Norman and Wayne Grady.
1997: Justin Leonard (a great putter) won by three, finishing with a 65.
2004: Todd Hamilton won a playoff with Ernie Els. Terrible weather final nine holes.

Robert Streb (odds 705). He was 18th last year in his first Open, 7 shots behind. Poor form this year until the last three weeks, 20th and 21st. In one of those he started a round with a triple-bogey 7, and his final 9 holes was 41, yet he finished only 5 shots behind the winner.
Kevin Kisner (odds 281). In 2015 he lost three play-offs before his first PGA Tour win in November. He was 16th in the Bridgestone at Firestone last week, 8 behind D Johnson. Missed the cut in his first Open in 2015 by a shot.
Smylie Kaufman (odds 547) I backed him in the 2016 US Masters at 440, and he was a shot off the lead at 54 holes. This is his Open debut. He hits it a long way. 20th, 10th, 27th in 3 of his last 4 starts (and cut in US Open) so is in ok form.
Jordan Niebrugge (odds 998). Never heard of him? He was 6th in the 2015 Open Championship, 11 under par and leading amateur, and lowest amateur score in Open history. He had 20 birdies in that Open (Spieth 24, Z Johnson 22, Oosthuisen 22, Leishman 21, Day 17.) Age 22. He finished college in the last few months and has played one professional tournament, the Quicken Loans 23/26 June, missing the cut with 72,73. He might lack practice as he was finishing college. He has potential but might flop. Young players are imo inconsistent. This is my biggest bet.

I know Dustin Johnson is in top form, Jason Day is winning about half the tournaments he enters, Jordon Spieth nearly won the Open and is a great putter for these greens, but there have been more upsets on this course than other Open venues.

I like big odds. They pay more. The idea is to make money, not pick winners.