Dairy Chit Chat- Please read Mod note in post #1

greysides · 17-06-2016 08:05PM

Mod:

I realise that tempers are raw over current events but this is a discussion thread not a rant thread so I'll remind everyone that the normal forum rules of posting etiquette are expected.

Dawggone · 17-06-2016 09:16PM

Timmaay wrote: »

I'm not in too dissimilar a position than you, Unfortunately life isn't fair, the fact is we are all knocking out a commodity that there is simply wayyy too much of in the world at the minute. Yep we've all been lead down this path by overzealous teagasc chaps, Processors who have us by the balls and locked into 5year contracts etc, but as things stand there isn't a whole lot I can do about it at the second, otherwise than put the head down, coast on through the next year (or more if needs be) (and for me to that most certainly means culling at all stage I'm anyway tight for cash flow).

However once bitten twice shy, I've totally changed my attitude from back in the happy slappy days of 39c/l, I'm lucky enough not to have gone wild with loads of debt (and I hugely pitty anyone who has), I'll play out the next year or so but would have zero issues with taking drastic measures like culling heavy, OAD and go back to work, or even just get out totally. I'll most certainly be reconsidering my options when the time comes that I can hand in notice to get out of the current 5year contract. Ultimately I'll admit I've grown to dislike the direction the whole food and agricultural industry in general is heading and by now I'd be very surprised if I'm still dairying in 10years time, life is jsut too short.

Excellent and honest post Tim.

I'd have much more respect for Mr. Brady of Brady Consultants if he wrote ariticles as honest.

I would like to add that the whole food and agriculture industry has been headed in the direction that you speak of for well over thirty years now.

kerry cow · 18-06-2016 01:00AM

We sell our milk at a price that leave little or no return , and yet our input cost dont reflect our milk price paid at that time . And even though the world is awash with milk and the markets are trading down , can someone explain to me how the shelf price remains contant , with every one beyond the farmer making profit ?.is it a race to the bottom ? We're we sold a pup 20/20 . For any business to survive you have to break even and show a profit . It's not good enough to say to ourselves ah next year will be good . No , how many generation has this to go on before we cop on . We work and need profit every year not 3 in 5 . Bulls ite, do your job good , get paid , live , we have to live , all this can be quite stressful .

BannerBarry · 18-06-2016 07:21AM

kerry cow wrote: »

We sell our milk at a price that leave little or no return , and yet our input cost dont reflect our milk price paid at that time . And even though the world is awash with milk and the markets are trading down , can someone explain to me how the shelf price remains contant , with every one beyond the farmer making profit ?.is it a race to the bottom ? We're we sold a pup 20/20 . For any business to survive you have to break even and show a profit . It's not good enough to say to ourselves ah next year will be good . No , how many generation has this to go on before we cop on . We work and need profit every year not 3 in 5 . Bulls ite, do your job good , get paid , live , we have to live , all this can be quite stressful .

Remember Maurice Pra** of C&C in 2007. They needed an incredible amount of new Apple trees for the "growth" they were going to have. Talking future demand up is a legal mechanism to talk future supply price down.... without a contract.

rangler1 · 18-06-2016 07:45AM

BannerBarry wrote: »

Remember Maurice Pra** of C&C in 2007. They needed an incredible amount of new Apple trees for the "growth" they were going to have. Talking future demand up is a legal mechanism to talk future supply price down.... without a contract.

If there was never any talk of 2020 and china etc, 2015 was going to be a holocaust.
Every farmer was planning expansion/entry into milk for the previous 10 years and 10 year evolution happened in one year. EU should learn now not to interfere in the market, intervention is a joke, but they still haven't even learnt that,
Yea it was great for the elite that had quotas and now of course they have shares to carry them through their old age...you couldn't write it.
Those that wanted to expand worked hard, granted, but those that are at the same level as 1984 ( and a lot of them are )definitely had a soft ride.

C0N0R · 18-06-2016 08:11AM

kerry cow wrote: »

We sell our milk at a price that leave little or no return , and yet our input cost dont reflect our milk price paid at that time . And even though the world is awash with milk and the markets are trading down , can someone explain to me how the shelf price remains contant , with every one beyond the farmer making profit ?.is it a race to the bottom ? We're we sold a pup 20/20 . For any business to survive you have to break even and show a profit . It's not good enough to say to ourselves ah next year will be good . No , how many generation has this to go on before we cop on . We work and need profit every year not 3 in 5 . Bulls ite, do your job good , get paid , live , we have to live , all this can be quite stressful .

It's simple, the amount of milk in Ireland that is used for domestic consumption is tiny. Hence why shelf price hasn't dropped. If we only sold for domestic consumption milk price would be better but at the end of the day supermarkets aren't going to pay a massive premium above global price. I've no issues with the price my coop pay me, the coop has to break even/make a small profit otherwise they won't survive and then who do I sell my milk to? When milk prices sky rocket do the factory staff get a pay increase?

Ireland's milk price is bad compared to the rest of Europe because most other countries have a higher domestic consumption in comparison to their production and they also produce value added product. Not milk powder, any monkey can produce that and trying to play that game is a real race to the bottom.

fepper · 18-06-2016 08:25AM

rangler1 wrote: »

If there was never any talk of 2020 and china etc, 2015 was going to be a holocaust. 
Every farmer was planning expansion/entry into milk for the previous 10 years and 10 year evolution happened in one year. EU should learn now not to interfere in the market, intervention is a joke, but they still haven't even learnt that, 
Yea it was great for the elite that had quotas and now of course they have shares to carry them through their old age...you couldn't write it. 
Those that wanted to expand worked hard, granted, but those that are at the same level as 1984 ( and a lot of them are )definitely had a soft ride.

In fairness when quotas came in Ireland the average milk quota was small and most of us had to buy extra quota over that time which was a huge cost at the time,it was the only way to increase production and expand so it wasn't a soft ride as you say

fepper · 18-06-2016 08:52AM

And rangler the SFP payment you have from cattle/sheep etc would have been away higher than farmers with milk only with compensation levels higher for non dairy farmers so we got kicked in the ar*e every way

kerryjack · 18-06-2016 09:30AM

Intesting tread this,as an x dairy man myself it was a trip to NZ a few years back that made me change my ways as I saw first hand how they produce milk and look after there stock. its all about the milk nothing else , farm building are of poor quality but they would have a decent enough parlour or milking facilitys and farm machinery practically non existent if milk price was low they cut way back on e everything and its quite shocking to see some of the condition of the milking stock over there. Ye guys are producing a premium product but are in the same market as these guys in NZ There was a time in this country when it was all about the milk back in the late 70s we were milking 35 cows with a 3 milking bucket unit milking was a family afair we had cows in every little shed in yard we did manage to build a parlour and cubicle houses but never did manage to pass the 40 cow mark and got out 5 years ago

Never wrestle with pigs · 18-06-2016 09:42AM

fepper wrote: »

And rangler the SFP payment you have from cattle/sheep etc would have been away higher than farmers with milk only with compensation levels higher for non dairy farmers so we got kicked in the ar*e every way

Your hand was held for long enough, time to stand by yourself like everyone elce.

On a side note, I was talking to an elderly man a few days ago. He was a very good beef and tillage man. He said years ago a tonne of beet would have bought him a really good suit! With the extra cost of that tonne now, what would that tonne buy you now? The laces?

Waffletraktor · 18-06-2016 09:53AM

fepper wrote: »

And rangler the SFP payment you have from cattle/sheep etc would have been away higher than farmers with milk only with compensation levels higher for non dairy farmers so we got kicked in the ar*e every way

How much extra was living in quota worth to the dairy farmer?

Milked out · 18-06-2016 10:03AM

Waffletraktor wrote: »

fepper wrote: »

And rangler the SFP payment you have from cattle/sheep etc would have been away higher than farmers with milk only with compensation levels higher for non dairy farmers so we got kicked in the ar*e every way

How much extra was living in quota worth to the dairy farmer?

That's hard to call i think, as Stan i think said previously quota was the pillar for the last 10 15 years holding up the nz industry as much if not more than ours, it held us back allowing them to produce what they want. Perhaps it supported us but expansion was still having to take place as what families survived on in 88 wouldn't have done in 98 or 08 and so quota had to be acquired. I'm not farming that long but I don't remember a time when dad wasn't paying for quota and I have never farmed without leasing or purchasing it

yosemitesam1 · 18-06-2016 10:16AM

Waffletraktor wrote: »

How much extra was living in quota worth to the dairy farmer?

Id say if it hadnt been for the eu there would have been at least 2-3 billion less litres produced annually here for the quota years, if quotas were there without Ireland included we probably would have done something similar to nz the last 10 years and still be in this mess.
If quotas/support in all sectors never happened i wonder would we be in a much stronger position now even if output was smaller?

Waffletraktor · 18-06-2016 10:33AM

yosemitesam1 wrote: »

Id say if it hadnt been for the eu there would have been at least 2-3 billion less litres produced annually here for the quota years, if quotas were there without Ireland included we probably would have done something similar to nz the last 10 years and still be in this mess.
If quotas/support in all sectors never happened i wonder would we be in a much stronger position now even if output was smaller?

I would think so, producing for demand rather than producing hoping for demand. Though i think you would still have some sort of controls/ensurances in place as civilisation is built on plentiful cheap food. There was not much wrong with the Nz when ye were in quota its no one could predict the exact fallout of the tidal wave of Eu marginal excess milk on them.

Milked out wrote: »

That's hard to call i think, as Stan i think said previously quota was the pillar for the last 10 15 years holding up the nz industry as much if not more than ours, it held us back allowing them to produce what they want. Perhaps it supported us but expansion was still having to take place as what families survived on in 88 wouldn't have done in 98 or 08 and so quota had to be acquired. I'm not farming that long but I don't remember a time when dad wasn't paying for quota and I have never farmed without leasing or purchasing it

We were some what similar at home buying the farm/quota renting quota land etc etc.. with a small amount of help to start as at the time oldman/uncle couldnt agree if the the sky was blue!. Saw sense but it caused a big lost oppurtunity. By the time he got debt free kicked the bucket.
As above, as for the future there will be good times ahead its just what it takes to sort the current mess is the problem.

pedigree 6 · 18-06-2016 11:07AM

There's a dairy forum coming up here and there might be some decisions made.
However before that we should look at what is after happening.
We have intervention stores full of product.
We have to look at where that product came from.
The majority of it has come from france and Belgium.
Why there you may ask when intervention price is (I think)21c and French and Belgium farm prices came no where near this.
So if average prices in these countries was 30c and inter 21c who paid the difference? It was either the coops or the government.(Where's European union there?:pac:)
Still the question is why fill inter stores? Maybe because they want -
http://www.euronews.com/2015/07/24/belgian-dairy-farmers-call-for-emergency-milk-quotas/
Back and what better way to show the mountains of stored product.
That's what happened before.
The pressure (according to them)has to be put on the irish and look we've even had reports from a poster of French powder being bagged and an irish harp being stamped on it no doubt going into intervention. With a French film crew being shown then stores of bagged powder in a French warehouse and classed as the nasty irish overproducing.
If anyone asks about milk powder mountains please politely inform them where the majority came from.
Are they going to get their way. Who knows.
But the kiwis think so.

Waffletraktor · 18-06-2016 11:13AM

pedigree 6 wrote: »

There's a dairy forum coming up here and there might be some decisions made.
However before that we should look at what is after happening.
We have intervention stores full of product.
We have to look at where that product came from.
The majority of it has come from france and Belgium.
Why there you may ask when intervention price is (I think)21c and French and Belgium farm prices came no where near this.
So if average prices in these countries was 30c and inter 21c who paid the difference? It was either the coops or the government.(Where's European union there?:pac:)
Still the question is why fill inter stores? Maybe because they want -
http://www.euronews.com/2015/07/24/belgian-dairy-farmers-call-for-emergency-milk-quotas/
Back and what better way to show the mountains of stored product.
That's what happened before.
The pressure (according to them)has to be put on the irish and look we've even had reports from a poster of French powder being bagged and an irish harp being stamped on it no doubt going into intervention. With a French film crew being shown then stores of bagged powder in a French warehouse and classed as the nasty irish overproducing.
If anyone asks about milk powder mountains please politely inform them where the majority came from.
Are they going to get their way. Who knows.
But the kiwis think so.

Maybe a fg ag minister might see if can get a special deal for Irish dairy, with an Irish fg Eu ag commissioner sighting recent bank crisis debts loaded onto Ireland etc etc. I am being serious being a relatively low volume producer in reality and a low enviro impact compared to some.? Germany has helped their tillage farms with the AD subs steal from the Eu with the U.K. Close behind

pedigree 6 · 18-06-2016 11:55AM

Waffletraktor wrote: »

Maybe a fg ag minister might see if can get a special deal for Irish dairy, with an Irish fg Eu ag commissioner sighting recent bank crisis debts loaded onto Ireland etc etc. I am being serious being a relatively low volume producer in reality and a low enviro impact compared to some.? Germany has helped their tillage farms with the AD subs steal from the Eu with the U.K. Close behind

Or we could join the people on that island where you are and leave the eu.:D

Waffletraktor · 18-06-2016 12:00PM

pedigree 6 wrote: »

Or we could join the people on that island where you are and leave the eu.:D

Votes not been tallied yet!! Doesn't bother me 12months we can jump on a plane to where ever provides best future. Be nice for her to stay near family etc though. Nhs is aiming firmly at ag budget as attitude is import it

freedominacup · 18-06-2016 12:21PM

pedigree 6 wrote: »

There's a dairy forum coming up here and there might be some decisions made.
However before that we should look at what is after happening.
We have intervention stores full of product.
We have to look at where that product came from.
The majority of it has come from france and Belgium.
Why there you may ask when intervention price is (I think)21c and French and Belgium farm prices came no where near this.
So if average prices in these countries was 30c and inter 21c who paid the difference? It was either the coops or the government.(Where's European union there?:pac:)
Still the question is why fill inter stores? Maybe because they want -
http://www.euronews.com/2015/07/24/belgian-dairy-farmers-call-for-emergency-milk-quotas/
Back and what better way to show the mountains of stored product.
That's what happened before.
The pressure (according to them)has to be put on the irish and look we've even had reports from a poster of French powder being bagged and an irish harp being stamped on it no doubt going into intervention. With a French film crew being shown then stores of bagged powder in a French warehouse and classed as the nasty irish overproducing.
If anyone asks about milk powder mountains please politely inform them where the majority came from.
Are they going to get their way. Who knows.
But the kiwis think so.

That "report" is eleven months old.

yosemitesam1 · 18-06-2016 12:47PM

pedigree 6 wrote: »

There's a dairy forum coming up here and there might be some decisions made.
However before that we should look at what is after happening.
We have intervention stores full of product.
We have to look at where that product came from.
The majority of it has come from france and Belgium.
Why there you may ask when intervention price is (I think)21c and French and Belgium farm prices came no where near this.
So if average prices in these countries was 30c and inter 21c who paid the difference? It was either the coops or the government.(Where's European union there?:pac:)
Still the question is why fill inter stores? Maybe because they want -
http://www.euronews.com/2015/07/24/belgian-dairy-farmers-call-for-emergency-milk-quotas/
Back and what better way to show the mountains of stored product.
That's what happened before.
The pressure (according to them)has to be put on the irish and look we've even had reports from a poster of French powder being bagged and an irish harp being stamped on it no doubt going into intervention. With a French film crew being shown then stores of bagged powder in a French warehouse and classed as the nasty irish overproducing.
If anyone asks about milk powder mountains please politely inform them where the majority came from.
Are they going to get their way. Who knows.
But the kiwis think so.

Are the intervention volumes/breakdown of sales published anywhere?

pedigree 6 · 18-06-2016 01:00PM

yosemitesam1 wrote: »

Are the intervention volumes/breakdown of sales published anywhere?

Milked out had it here a while ago.
Before intervention was extended.

pedigree 6 · 18-06-2016 01:02PM

freedominacup wrote: »

That "report" is eleven months old.

News report is but they still want it back.

kowtow · 18-06-2016 01:09PM

pedigree 6 wrote: »

The majority of it has come from france and Belgium.
Why there you may ask when intervention price is (I think)21c and French and Belgium farm prices came no where near this.
So if average prices in these countries was 30c and inter 21c who paid the difference? It was either the coops or the government.(Where's European union there?:pac:)

I suspect the difference came because the product mix there has always included a high proportion of local liquid and high value product (cheese) milk... in other words the traditional problem of marginal milk which Ireland ignored when planning 2020.

Being charitable, I suspect we didn't so much ignore it, as cross our fingers and hope that Chinese babies would be even better than a local liquid market.

visatorro · 18-06-2016 01:11PM

Waffletraktor wrote: »

Votes not been tallied yet!! Doesn't bother me 12months we can jump on a plane to where ever provides best future. Be nice for her to stay near family etc though. Nhs is aiming firmly at ag budget as attitude is import it

Interesting, I would have thought the buy British brand would be stronger than the buy Irish iykwim. will farming in the UK split between extreme factory type Farms and niche/organic places with no middle ground?

Just on the NHS, it's a superbly ran business compared to the shambles of an excuse for healthcare we have here.

pedigree 6 · 18-06-2016 01:49PM

yosemitesam1 wrote: »

Are the intervention volumes/breakdown of sales published anywhere?

http://www.fwi.co.uk/business/eu-ramps-up-emergency-dairy-intervention.htm

Dawggone · 18-06-2016 02:22PM

From another thread...
Farmers from the (aoc) Comté region will get somewhere between 44 and 48cpl base price for 2016.
Canadian farmers to get around 43cpl for 2016.

Quotas have gone and there's no restriction on production, so produce away to your hearts content. I'd prefer if there was no intervention, but that's the way it is.
No point harking back to 1989...even though Rangler is not far off the mark about a cows gross production being equivalent to the value of an acre.

There isn't another forum in Ireland where there is as much bitching and moaning about price, even from sectors that are a lot worse off and for longer.

Now either organise another quota abolition party pi$$ up and get it out of your systems...or do like Browned has and be proactive.

I warned about risk management, price volatility, betting on one enterprise blah blah a few years ago...

jaymla627 · 18-06-2016 02:43PM

Dawggone wrote: »

From another thread...
Farmers from the (aoc) Comté region will get somewhere between 44 and 48cpl base price for 2016.
Canadian farmers to get around 43cpl for 2016.

Quotas have gone and there's no restriction on production, so produce away to your hearts content. I'd prefer if there was no intervention, but that's the way it is.
No point harking back to 1989...even though Rangler is not far off the mark about a cows gross production being equivalent to the value of an acre.

There isn't another forum in Ireland where there is as much bitching and moaning about price, even from sectors that are a lot worse off and for longer.

Now either organise another quota abolition party pi$$ up and get it out of your systems...or do like Browned has and be proactive.

I warned about risk management, price volatility, betting on one enterprise blah blah a few years ago...

Going making a few calls here Monday to local organic processor just 10 miles away too see if he's intrested in us as a supplier, been mulling over my options the last month and see no future in conventional milk production simply isn't sustainable to carry - on hoping that the tide will turn and powders will suddenly double in value over -night , the job is f**ked for want of a better word.....
Nice sub of 220/ha in two year conversion period for organics and 170/ha there - after with a two year fixed price guarantee on autumn/winter milk of plus 50 cent a litre...

Milked out · 18-06-2016 02:55PM

jaymla627 wrote: »

Dawggone wrote: »

From another thread...
Farmers from the (aoc) Comt region will get somewhere between 44 and 48cpl base price for 2016.
Canadian farmers to get around 43cpl for 2016.

Quotas have gone and there's no restriction on production, so produce away to your hearts content. I'd prefer if there was no intervention, but that's the way it is.
No point harking back to 1989...even though Rangler is not far off the mark about a cows gross production being equivalent to the value of an acre.

There isn't another forum in Ireland where there is as much bitching and moaning about price, even from sectors that are a lot worse off and for longer.

Now either organise another quota abolition party pi$ up and get it out of your systems...or do like Browned has and be proactive.

I warned about risk management, price volatility, betting on one enterprise blah blah a few years ago...

Going making a few calls here Monday to local organic processor just 10 miles away too see if he's intrested in us as a supplier, been mulling over my options the last month and see no future in conventional milk production simply isn't sustainable to carry - on hoping that the tide will turn and powders will suddenly double in value over -night , the job is f**ked for want of a better word.....
Nice sub of 220/ha in two year conversion period for organics and 170/ha there - after with a two year fixed price guarantee on autumn/winter milk of plus 50 cent a litre...

Have you priced organic feed costs, reduction in stocking rates, housing requirements? Is there much of a demand for organic after? Are there many organic producers around after. No harm to suss them out anyway

awaywithyou · 18-06-2016 02:55PM

Dawggone wrote: »

From another thread...
Farmers from the (aoc) Comté region will get somewhere between 44 and 48cpl base price for 2016.
Canadian farmers to get around 43cpl for 2016.

Quotas have gone and there's no restriction on production, so produce away to your hearts content. I'd prefer if there was no intervention, but that's the way it is.
No point harking back to 1989...even though Rangler is not far off the mark about a cows gross production being equivalent to the value of an acre.

There isn't another forum in Ireland where there is as much bitching and moaning about price, even from sectors that are a lot worse off and for longer.

Now either organise another quota abolition party pi$$ up and get it out of your systems...or do like Browned has and be proactive.

I warned about risk management, price volatility, betting on one enterprise blah blah a few years ago...

presume ya sent that message from the stand in bordeaux??:)

jaymla627 · 18-06-2016 03:05PM

Milked out wrote: »

Have you priced organic feed costs, reduction in stocking rates, housing requirements? Is there much of a demand for organic after? Are there many organic producers around after. No harm to suss them out anyway

450 a ton for feed, it's glenisk who are beside us and apparently they can't get enough milk, local farm in conversion beside us to at the minute .....
On stocking rates I would probably cut numbers back to 80-90 cows on a 140 acre grazing block and have another 35 on out - farms, have spent a lot of money on reseeding/lime /building up p and k over the last few years so reckon if I put in a good bit of clover the farm will respond to it well, would be sowing crops for wholecrop aswell/maybe some kale etc to reduce bought - in feed

Dairy Chit Chat- Please read Mod note in post #1

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