Milk Price- Please read Mod note in post #1

jaymla627 · 10-06-2016 10:52PM

Waffletraktor wrote: »

Short medium term loan to clear the books and have some cash could surely be got, though an honest assesment is in order to decide if its worth while.

That's a fairly high horse your up on, sure a good proportion of Irish farmers might aswell just walk of the land and forget about it, probably the biggest and most prolonged dip in milk prices ever seen and you reckon any farms using merchant credit are screwed....
The vast majority of dairy farms worldwide are producing milk at a loss, alot of these units have debts per cow well over 5 grand and are currently amassing more debt thanks to "forgiving" banks to stay going, but the Irish dairy farmer maybe owing a 1000 a cow is a lost cause because he is using the merchant for credit instead of the long drawn out process of a loan application at a irish bank

Milked out · 10-06-2016 10:59PM

Waffletraktor wrote: »

whelan2 wrote: »

yes thats normal but lads being allowed to run up crazy amounts is not normal

Short medium term loan to clear the books and have some cash could surely be got, though an honest assesment is in order to decide if its worth while.

Both AIB and boi have 12 month facilities available anyway, still probably at 6%. Probably better use to plan out main purchases at start of year and use it them to get bulk orders and perhaps better deals.

Waffletraktor · 10-06-2016 11:36PM

jaymla627 wrote: »

That's a fairly high horse your up on, sure a good proportion of Irish farmers might aswell just walk of the land and forget about it, probably the biggest and most prolonged dip in milk prices ever seen and you reckon any farms using merchant credit are screwed....
The vast majority of dairy farms worldwide are producing milk at a loss, alot of these units have debts per cow well over 5 grand and are currently amassing more debt thanks to "forgiving" banks to stay going, but the Irish dairy farmer maybe owing a 1000 a cow is a lost cause because he is using the merchant for credit instead of the long drawn out process of a loan application at a irish bank

Its more like an ass, but ol banjo does their job all the same!
If you end up paying way over the odds for in-puts falling further behind you really do need to take a good honest look at your business(maybe even share it with a good friend or 2 for a different view). Its grand going loading on debt, if your happy taking the risks just dont get upset if it all goes wrong... ok?.
How long and low is this dip, can you live with it? The hype seemed to be ye could bankrupt the other crowd first and Ireland will be on the cream. If you cant get cheap finance maybe spending lots of money is an issue? The dutch seem pretty cofident in loading on the debt.
So have you a cunning plan you can offer up, or is it carry on as usual do we need to start a fancy social media campaign #prayforthedairyfarmer ?

RightTurnClyde · 11-06-2016 12:27AM

Dawggone wrote: »

I think you posted before that you like good food?
If you do a few milkings I'll buy you lunch!
There's a restaurant up the road from La Rochelle called La Marine in Noirmoutier and it's well worth a visit. Alexandre Couillion is the chef and is gifted with seafood. You'd want to be booking now.
I recommend the Turbot.

That's a plan so. Just leave a note on the bulk tank to what paddock they're going to and what cows are out of the tank.

Good call on the restaurant in Noirmoitier, can't beat talking to the locals

OverRide · 11-06-2016 09:03AM

Farmer Ed wrote: »

Plus if you end up on credit card rates it's a very slippery slope. It's fine to point the finger but you are correct when people's backs are to the wall they can make very poor choices

It's a big big problem, you'd want to take a look at the Co ops debtor list at this stage

As said upthread,both Aib and boi have 12 month cashbook loans at between 3 and 6% to compliment overdrafts
You need to clear them annually but in Aib's case,once cleared,you can draw it down again as needed
Boi has one but the whole thing has to be renewed each year formally whereas the Aib one rolls over and stays open for a re draw once it's got cleared
Problem is most farmers are afraid to talk to banks and worse forget what they told them last time

Farmer Ed · 11-06-2016 09:40AM

OverRide wrote: »

It's a big big problem, you'd want to take a look at the Co ops debtor list at this stage

As said upthread,both Aib and boi have 12 month cashbook loans at between 3 and 6% to compliment overdrafts
You need to clear them annually but in Aib's case,once cleared,you can draw it down again as needed
Boi has one but the whole thing has to be renewed each year formally whereas the Aib one rolls over and stays open for a re draw once it's got cleared
Problem is most farmers are afraid to talk to banks and worse forget what they told them last time

Talking to banks isn't always easy. There are certain things they only want to hear. Say the wrong thing and they won't cover that. For example my account told me they are not doing any refinancing at the moment. In some cases that could prove to be a big savings if a high interest loan could be refinanced by a loan form another bank.

Milked out · 11-06-2016 09:54AM

Find it hard to believe they are doing no refinancing. Perhaps banks may not take on a loan from another bank alrite, but in house surely they are, makes as much sense for the banks as the customer in a lot of cases. Obviously it's down to individual circumstances

whelan2 · 11-06-2016 10:09AM

Farmer Ed wrote: »

Talking to banks isn't always easy. There are certain things they only want to hear. Say the wrong thing and they won't cover that. For example my account told me they are not doing any refinancing at the moment. In some cases that could prove to be a big savings if a high interest loan could be refinanced by a loan form another bank.

You are way better off to let them know there is a problem. I lodged a cheque the other day to cover what is owed before milk cheque comes in. It bounced. No chance of it clearing according to lad who wrote it. Emailed bank. They will cover my account until milk cheque comes in. All it takes is a bit of communication. Less stress for me for the few days. As for lads who give out cheques knowing there's no funding to meet them they should get a kick were it hurts

Buford T. Justice XIX · 11-06-2016 10:34AM

whelan2 wrote: »

You are way better off to let them know there is a problem. I lodged a cheque the other day to cover what is owed before milk cheque comes in. It bounced. No chance of it clearing according to lad who wrote it. Emailed bank. They will cover my account until milk cheque comes in. All it takes is a bit of communication. Less stress for me for the few days. As for lads who give out cheques knowing there's no funding to meet them they should get a kick were it hurts

Maybe he lodged a cheque that bounced as well and couldn't get it sorted in time?

It happened me last year from a lad I do a good bit of trade with, I had the new cheque within a week and we are still doing business.

And I lodged cheques a while back and one slipped out of the envelope at home and wasn't lodged until a week later but luckily one of the lads I paid leaves it ages to lodge a cheque.

There are many good reasons why there mightn't be funds in an account.

whelan2 · 11-06-2016 11:13AM

Buford T. Justice V wrote: »

Maybe he lodged a cheque that bounced as well and couldn't get it sorted in time?

It happened me last year from a lad I do a good bit of trade with, I had the new cheque within a week and we are still doing business.

And I lodged cheques a while back and one slipped out of the envelope at home and wasn't lodged until a week later but luckily one of the lads I paid leaves it ages to lodge a cheque.

There are many good reasons why there mightn't be funds in an account.

yes i know that, he said there wouldnt be funds there for a while to meet it so I assume there were never funds there to meet it. Why he didnt tell me when he gave me the cheque annoys me more.Anyway its along time since I got caught out like that

Buford T. Justice XIX · 11-06-2016 11:24AM

whelan2 wrote: »

yes i know that, he said there wouldnt be funds there for a while to meet it so I assume there were never funds there to meet it. Why he didnt tell me when he gave me the cheque annoys me more.Anyway its along time since I got caught out like that

Yeah, he should have told you to wait or else wait to buy if there wasn't going to be anything there to meet it.

jaymla627 · 11-06-2016 11:34AM

Waffletraktor wrote: »

Its more like an ass, but ol banjo does their job all the same!
If you end up paying way over the odds for in-puts falling further behind you really do need to take a good honest look at your business(maybe even share it with a good friend or 2 for a different view). Its grand going loading on debt, if your happy taking the risks just dont get upset if it all goes wrong... ok?.
How long and low is this dip, can you live with it? The hype seemed to be ye could bankrupt the other crowd first and Ireland will be on the cream. If you cant get cheap finance maybe spending lots of money is an issue? The dutch seem pretty cofident in loading on the debt.
So have you a cunning plan you can offer up, or is it carry on as usual do we need to start a fancy social media campaign #prayforthedairyfarmer ?

Not solely relying on dairying here to put food on the table, how long can I live with it, my thinking is i'll stick it out for this year, and 2017 but if the thing doesn't start to turn by the autumn of 2017 (prices back over 27 cent) ill simply have to look into exiting dairying our simply cut back numbers to the bare minimum/slash use of fert/feed stop all on - farm investment and put my time to better use where I actually get paid a wage.....
Have no intention of been a hero who keeps milking out of some sort of loyalty to the cows, putting in 70-80 hour weeks to simply break even is a fools errand, farming in nearly all sectors is looking pretty bleak at the minute, at 28 years of age I really shouldn't be thinking of exit plans and changing careers from a job I love but the whole thing is really up in the air at the minute

greenfield21 · 11-06-2016 11:56AM

Lads don't despair, people are saying prices are on the rise. It's time to load on more cows.

Water John · 11-06-2016 12:05PM

Not a great joke, Greenfield, if that's what it is?

mahoney_j · 11-06-2016 12:35PM

A lot of this thread contains moaning about coops ,negativity ,lads thinking of leaving ,pure Fookin depression .times are tough ,suck it up buckle down and remain positive .narkets will turn and if u examine things closely ,the wheels are in motion .yeadh it's nor nice working for near nothing but it's rempary blip .wasnt farming in own right in 09 but remember it and a few things dad did to keep things ticking over ,whinging and moaning wasn't one .i know whelan outlined before about how 2012/13 was a tough year but she's still farming and I bet learnt a lot about her farm and herself through those times .how u react and learn from things like that make u a better person and farmer

greenfield21 · 11-06-2016 12:38PM

But when this final ceiling on intervention is hit don't u think prices will hit bottom fast then production will start dropping of and prices will rise once more. Ok I'm been way to optimistic, fook it bring back quotas. I'm sick of this marginal milk.

whelan2 · 11-06-2016 12:54PM

greenfield21 wrote: »

But when this final ceiling on intervention is hit don't u think prices will hit bottom fast then production will start dropping of and prices will rise once more. Ok I'm been way to optimistic, fook it bring back quotas. I'm sick of this marginal milk.

How long have you been milking? Where you milking in 2009?

Farmer Ed · 11-06-2016 01:33PM

Milked out wrote: »

Find it hard to believe they are doing no refinancing. Perhaps banks may not take on a loan from another bank alrite, but in house surely they are, makes as much sense for the banks as the customer in a lot of cases. Obviously it's down to individual circumstances

That's what I was told by my accountant
Yes the probably may do things like go interest only on a loan for a limited period if things got really tough but with that will come an extra charge. One thing they will never do is refinance you with a loan ar a lower interest rate. At the end of the day they are trying to make money. If you thought about it logically if a farmer could remortgage the house and get money for 3%
A lot of guys are paying a lot more than that. But the banks wouldn't look as such a proposal

A saving of 2% on 100k is 2 k a year anyone paying 16% to the co op is being rightly screwed

Milked out · 11-06-2016 01:52PM

Farmer Ed wrote: »

Milked out wrote: »

Find it hard to believe they are doing no refinancing. Perhaps banks may not take on a loan from another bank alrite, but in house surely they are, makes as much sense for the banks as the customer in a lot of cases. Obviously it's down to individual circumstances

That's what I was told by my accountant
Yes the probably may do things like go interest only on a loan for a limited period if things got really tough but with that will come an extra charge. One thing they will never do is refinance you with a loan ar a lower interest rate. At the end of the day they are trying to make money. If you thought about it logically if a farmer could remortgage the house and get money for 3%
A lot of guys are paying a lot more than that. But the banks wouldn't look as such a proposal

A saving of 2% on 100k is 2 k a year anyone paying 16% to the co op is being rightly screwed

If you are refinancing a loan which was agreed previously at whatever rate for whatever term of course they are unlikely to give lower interest rates what they do is stretch out the term it's payed over to reduce repayments. Where a lower interest rate may occur is if you are combining other loans and debt into one and put it over a manageable period repayments wise, such as clearing an overdraft credit card and other loans etc. They will do this. What you are suggesting isnt refinancing it's looking to reduce the interest rate which is unlikely to happen in good times not a mind bad.

Waffletraktor · 11-06-2016 03:01PM

jaymla627 wrote: »

Not solely relying on dairying here to put food on the table, how long can I live with it, my thinking is i'll stick it out for this year, and 2017 but if the thing doesn't start to turn by the autumn of 2017 (prices back over 27 cent) ill simply have to look into exiting dairying our simply cut back numbers to the bare minimum/slash use of fert/feed stop all on - farm investment and put my time to better use where I actually get paid a wage.....
Have no intention of been a hero who keeps milking out of some sort of loyalty to the cows, putting in 70-80 hour weeks to simply break even is a fools errand, farming in nearly all sectors is looking pretty bleak at the minute, at 28 years of age I really shouldn't be thinking of exit plans and changing careers from a job I love but the whole thing is really up in the air at the minute

The last 18 months have been extreme all right, but you cant say it was not to be expected?! If you read back i was commenting on a particular case which would have been based on a timescale much longer. Dairy will turn around, its just who will be around and what it takes to get there is unknown. But the idea you can run up trading debt in aim to break someone who can borrow cheaper than you is silly.

jaymla627 · 11-06-2016 04:19PM

Waffletraktor wrote: »

The last 18 months have been extreme all right, but you cant say it was not to be expected?! If you read back i was commenting on a particular case which would have been based on a timescale much longer. Dairy will turn around, its just who will be around and what it takes to get there is unknown. But the idea you can run up trading debt in aim to break someone who can borrow cheaper than you is silly.

Always clear trading accounts before they go 6 months plus in my case so never pay intrest, granted I am losing out probably 20-30 euro a ton if I was buying bulk/cod but I'm prepared to take that hit,
Never alluded to trying to break other producers on mainland Europe that simply won't happen as in most cases these farms owe more then their actual farms market value, thus the banks will keep providing loans/restructuring debt in the majority of cases the alternative of banks calling in loans/doing forced sales would lead to a collapse in the book value of these farms screwing up the bank balance sheets in the process, the saying if you owe a bank a thousand dollars it's your problem but if you owe them a million it's theirs springs to mind

Dawggone · 11-06-2016 04:27PM

mahoney_j wrote: »

A lot of this thread contains moaning about coops ,negativity ,lads thinking of leaving ,pure Fookin depression .times are tough ,suck it up buckle down and remain positive .narkets will turn and if u examine things closely ,the wheels are in motion .yeadh it's nor nice working for near nothing but it's rempary blip .wasnt farming in own right in 09 but remember it and a few things dad did to keep things ticking over ,whinging and moaning wasn't one .i know whelan outlined before about how 2012/13 was a tough year but she's still farming and I bet learnt a lot about her farm and herself through those times .how u react and learn from things like that make u a better person and farmer

+1. Good man.

I would add, ffs, make out a budget. If you are put under pressure from a bouncing cheque, or an unexpected major breakdown etc etc, you need to be prepared. Loading into merchant credit to support cash flow is dodgy ground to be on, and going to a bank looking for money in a hurry may not be a runner.

When will June prices be out...?

:)
(For the next round of depression)

Dawggone · 11-06-2016 04:37PM

jaymla627 wrote: »

Always clear trading accounts before they go 6 months plus in my case so never pay intrest, granted I am losing out probably 20-30 euro a ton if I was buying bulk/cod but I'm prepared to take that hit,
Never alluded to trying to break other producers on mainland Europe that simply won't happen as in most cases these farms owe more then their actual farms market value, thus the banks will keep providing loans/restructuring debt in the majority of cases the alternative of banks calling in loans/doing forced sales would lead to a collapse in the book value of these farms screwing up the bank balance sheets in the process, the saying if you owe a bank a thousand dollars it's your problem but if you owe them a million it's theirs springs to mind

The Dutch and some of the Germans do carry a lot of debt, but the French certainly don't. Borrowing here is completely on ebitda no matter how many thousands of acres you own...
The 'burning off' of the EU dairy farmers won't happen. Kowtow explains well about marginal litres.
There was a link posted about the largest Coops in the world as regards milk volume processed, a good comparison would be the financially strongest Coops...

Farmer Ed · 11-06-2016 04:43PM

Dawggone wrote: »

+1. Good man.

I would add, ffs, make out a budget. If you are put under pressure from a bouncing cheque, or an unexpected major breakdown etc etc, you need to be prepared. Loading into merchant credit to support cash flow is dodgy ground to be on, and going to a bank looking for money in a hurry may not be a runner.

When will June prices be out...? :)
(For the next round of depression)

That is a bit of an issue that Irish farmers face. We don't yet even know how much we will be paid for Mays milk yer . How can you budget properly when you don't know what your income will be? I understand in other countries farmers are told what the price will be before they ever sell their milk.

whelan2 · 11-06-2016 07:09PM

mahoney_j wrote: »

A lot of this thread contains moaning about coops ,negativity ,lads thinking of leaving ,pure Fookin depression .times are tough ,suck it up buckle down and remain positive .narkets will turn and if u examine things closely ,the wheels are in motion .yeadh it's nor nice working for near nothing but it's rempary blip .wasnt farming in own right in 09 but remember it and a few things dad did to keep things ticking over ,whinging and moaning wasn't one .i know whelan outlined before about how 2012/13 was a tough year but she's still farming and I bet learnt a lot about her farm and herself through those times .how u react and learn from things like that make u a better person and farmer

Ye I am still here. Sure we have plenty of grass and your health is your wealth. Only recovered from 2012/13 in late 2014 and then price dropped again in 2015. Used to living on feck all ..

kowtow · 11-06-2016 07:46PM

mahoney_j wrote: »

A lot of this thread contains moaning about coops ,negativity ,lads thinking of leaving ,pure Fookin depression .times are tough ,suck it up buckle down and remain positive .narkets will turn and if u examine things closely ,the wheels are in motion .yeadh it's nor nice working for near nothing but it's rempary blip .wasnt farming in own right in 09 but remember it and a few things dad did to keep things ticking over ,whinging and moaning wasn't one .i know whelan outlined before about how 2012/13 was a tough year but she's still farming and I bet learnt a lot about her farm and herself through those times .how u react and learn from things like that make u a better person and farmer

+1000

I'm probably among the least optimistic in terms of long term prices, but the one comment which struck me here a few weeks back - and is very sound advice indeed - is that these price levels are not likely to be a place to make big decisions, any more than 35-40c is a plan to base a future on.

It may be that we are in for a long ride of these lower levels, it may even be that they go lower, now is the time to (keep) sharpening the pencil and learn as much as possible about maximising profit - think hard about how much real profit, including land and labour, can be generated at today's prices - and for that matter at 5 cent above and 5 cent below. Think hard about whether the same systems would work if global ration prices were 20% less or 20% more... but most of all take the time to figure out if these commodity driven markets are a realistic and satisfying place to work in the long term.

And - whatever the positive signs, and I think there are some, don't assume that prices will bounce back like elastic to previous levels or that they can't go lower again in the next cycle. There is no law or rule which says that milk can't stay between 25 and 28 c for the next five years - notice that the milk price 'volatility' so widely trailed by the press has not materialised. Milk has rarely been less volatile than the year since quotas were removed.

When a market hits it's lows there is always more time than you think to buy in and scale up, if that is your aim, borrowing more to catch a falling knife is about the quickest road to disaster I can think of.

At the moment farmers sweat and financial equity is being consumed by the industry at large - an industry which, in retrospect, geared up at precisely the wrong moment, and which ironically is a lot less efficient than the farms which supply it.

The point to look out for is the moment when the co-ops stop trying to compete to lend farmers their own money and start competing to buy our milk.. we haven't quite got there yet, but when we do it will be time to look objectively at the future.

RightTurnClyde · 11-06-2016 07:58PM

kowtow wrote: »

+1000

I'm probably among the least optimistic in terms of long term prices, but the one comment which struck me here a few weeks back - and is very sound advice indeed - is that these price levels are not likely to be a place to make big decisions, any more than 35-40c is a plan to base a future on.

It may be that we are in for a long ride of these lower levels, it may even be that they go lower, now is the time to (keep) sharpening the pencil and learn as much as possible about maximising profit - think hard about how much real profit, including land and labour, can be generated at today's prices - and for that matter at 5 cent above and 5 cent below. Think hard about whether the same systems would work if global ration prices were 20% less or 20% more... but most of all take the time to figure out if these commodity driven markets are a realistic and satisfying place to work in the long term.

And - whatever the positive signs, and I think there are some, don't assume that prices will bounce back like elastic to previous levels or that they can't go lower again in the next cycle. There is no law or rule which says that milk can't stay between 25 and 28 c for the next five years - notice that the milk price 'volatility' so widely trailed by the press has not materialised. Milk has rarely been less volatile than the year since quotas were removed.

When a market hits it's lows there is always more time than you think to buy in and scale up, if that is your aim, borrowing more to catch a falling knife is about the quickest road to disaster I can think of.

At the moment farmers sweat and financial equity is being consumed by the industry at large - an industry which, in retrospect, geared up at precisely the wrong moment, and which ironically is a lot less efficient than the farms which supply it.

The point to look out for is the moment when the co-ops stop trying to compete to lend farmers their own money and start competing to buy our milk.. we haven't quite got there yet, but when we do it will be time to look objectively at the future.

Great stuff KT, you're a rock of sense

mahoney_j · 11-06-2016 08:15PM

RightTurnClyde wrote: »

Great stuff KT, you're a rock of sense

+1 as good a post ice read in a long time

kevthegaff · 11-06-2016 08:48PM

mahoney_j wrote:

+1 as good a post ice read in a long time

Ur still thinking of skiing j or a cold bulmers:-D!

mahoney_j · 11-06-2016 08:55PM

kevthegaff wrote: »

Ur still thinking of skiing j or a cold bulmers:-D!

Orchard thieves tipple of choice arm Kev !!!

Milk Price- Please read Mod note in post #1

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