United Ireland

Shane

Have been watching the census story in the North. Apparently the Catholics are gaining on Protestants. The one to come after should point to a majority for Catholics. If so, you might see a referendum on a United Ireland by 2015. Commentators mention though, would the republic be as willing to have them? What do you think? How would you vote?

JustHalf

That's because Catholics have sex all the time.

EVERY SPERM IS SACRED!

bonkey

Lets say Catholics did come to a majority, held the referendum, and were "re-united" into Ireland. What then? As soon as there is a majority of Protestants, we have another referendum, and NI ends up swapping between two governing nations for the rest of time, based on demographic shifts? And we thought it was unstable un our lifetime thus far!

For this reason alone, I could not vote yes. If the vote was framed in such a way as to deny the possibility of the North seperating from Ireland again, then I think it would be a very unfair process. On the other hand, if it was framed to allow seperation, then we're looking at a situation like that in my first paragraph - not very desirable.

Other than some political ideology, based on ancient history, there is no credible reason whatsoever that I can see why the North coming back into the Republic would be a good idea.

jc

Aspro

Originally posted by bonkey
Lets say Catholics did come to a majority, held the referendum, and were "re-united" into Ireland. What then? As soon as there is a majority of Protestants, we have another referendum, and NI ends up swapping between two governing nations for the rest of time, based on demographic shifts?

That's optimistic at best. Most of the present tensions at flashpoint areas have been primarily due to the increase in the catholic population and the exacerbation of the housing situation.

Most housing estates in areas across the North have become 90% plus catholic or 90% protestant - the two communities have become more polarised than ever. The conflicts at the interface areas such as Glenbryn in the Ardoyne have been built and manipulated by reactionary forces like the UDA on the protestant fear of being forced out. Shinners jumped on the issue, as ever drawing comparisons to 1960's Alabama - and in usual sectarian fashion heightened the "us and them" situation.
If they really wanted to be part of the solution as opposed to part of the problem they should be finding a solution to the housing crisis that would benefit both communities instead of using ordinary people as political cannon fodder.

If there was even a whiff of a referendum on reunification the protestant community would react - and it wouldn't be nice. We're talking a civil war situation a la Bosnia. And it wouldn't just be confined to the North - it would involve the whole island.

There will never be a united Ireland without the consent of both communities, and there will never be consent without agreement.
Referendums are usually divisive, and in a place like Northern Ireland, obviously more so.
So long as people are allied to political parties that maintain power by fostering sectarian division there will never be peace. Only when fighting on key issues like health, education, jobs, housing, services etc. takes precedence over interface conflicts, parades etc. will the ordinary people of Northern Ireland see that there is more that unites them (and us) than divides them.

Morpheus

id vote no....

if its not broken dont fix it,

if it is broken, build a bloody big wall and stay well clear till it finishes blowing up!

Xterminator

I see this question as asking if I wouldlike a united ireland in theory.

Yes

I know doing so can open a whole pandora's box (oi keep it clean) of problems, but it makes econonomic, and political sense to have 1 united Ireland, rather than two seperate ones, as we have now.

X

Morpheus

how does it make economic sense? instead of blowing up their own factories and offices, theyll blow ours up too! thats not very economic. also how will it affect our currency? euro vs pound, theyd have to accept our taxes and insurance costs!!! cant see them giving up the pound either, its far stronger than the euro.

as for Policital sense? howso, what happens to the unionist parties? to the NI govt thats now underway? what about policing the new state, how will we do that when we barely have any army here at all? we wont have the security we have now, it will lead to attacks on catholics and institutions in our own state AND on protestants whove lived here all their lives! it will simply devide the ENTIRE island religiously as opposed being kept in that far off war torn country we now know as NI. do you really want to go BACKWARDS!!!!

Foreign investment will stop, civil war could break out, no corporation would want to put their european headquarters and money into an anarchist country!!!

come on, are you mad!:eek:

Meh

Originally posted by ScottB
Have been watching the census story in the North. Apparently the Catholics are gaining on Protestants. The one to come after should point to a majority for Catholics. If so, you might see a referendum on a United Ireland by 2015.

It doesn't matter which community has a majority. Under the Belfast Agreement, the constitutional status of NI can't be changed without the consent of a majority of both communities.

Our man in Havana

Originally posted by Meh

It doesn't matter which community has a majority. Under the Belfast Agreement, the constitutional status of NI can't be changed without the consent of a majority of both communities.

A way would be found around that.

Xterminator

Originally posted by Morphéus
how does it make economic sense? instead of blowing up their own factories and offices, theyll blow ours up too! thats not very economic. also how will it affect our currency? euro vs pound, theyd have to accept our taxes and insurance costs!!! cant see them giving up the pound either, its far stronger than the euro.

as for Policital sense? howso, what happens to the unionist parties? to the NI govt thats now underway? what about policing the new state, how will we do that when we barely have any army here at all? we wont have the security we have now, it will lead to attacks on catholics and institutions in our own state AND on protestants whove lived here all their lives! it will simply devide the ENTIRE island religiously as opposed being kept in that far off war torn country we now know as NI. do you really want to go BACKWARDS!!!!:

For a start, it makes economic sense to market ireland as a holiday destenation as a whole, instaed of a enjoy Northern Ireland campaign, and a competing Enjoy Rep of ireland.

The cost of governing the Island with 2 full administrations is far greater than it would be with 1.
Same with the civil service.
The education systems cost more to be run as 2 entities.
Our businesses (North and South) would have a greater local market to be part of.
TV and radio would benift from a similar shake up.
We could plan the infrastructure of the whole island, in 1 plan, not piecemeal.

You say you cant see them giving up the pound? They are debating that very isue now, without our help! So what if the pound is valued higher! Scrap the pound, join the euro, and then the euro would be more stable, and have a higher value! what have they lost? they would actually be able to export at a more competitive rate!

You talk about blowing up things, well most of these unionists are democrats. (at least they claim to be.)

In as democracy, you vote, and if you lose .. you accept that. Sure we can make the north a highly autonomous region, perhaps keeping a NI assembly with limited powers etc.
The point is agreement could be attempted.

It doesnt need to be war!

Conflict would not be inevitable, espically if we learn from past mistakes, and remove the percieved injustices.

X

azezil

Some day yes it would be nice to see, but at present its just not viable.

The only way it would work would be for at least 95% of the population to want it to happen. If they held a referendum and got a majority say aprox 5 - 10% you've got a whole lotta unhappy people on your hands.

Coupled with that are the economic side effects, the republic is in no shape to take on extra costs at this time.

Jaden

An unification between the republic of Ireland, and that little British piece of territory with whom we share an Island would be economic suicide.

It's not a theory, it's a fact.

1. It would destabilise the political system in Ireland, making it a no-go zone for overseas investment.

2. Northern is subsidised to it's eyeballs by the rest of the UK. I remember seeing that public sector (government funded) employment was running disproportionately higher than any other place in Europe. NI would be a millstone around our necks economically. We don't need that.


The idea of a United Ireland is an outdated romantic dream, sung about by The Wolfe Tones, nothing else.

Xterminator

Originally posted by Jaden
An unification between the republic of Ireland, and that little British piece of territory with whom we share an Island would be economic suicide.

It's not a theory, it's a fact.

1. It would destabilise the political system in Ireland, making it a no-go zone for overseas investment.

2. Northern is subsidised to it's eyeballs by the rest of the UK. I remember seeing that public sector (government funded) employment was running disproportionately higher than any other place in Europe. NI would be a millstone around our necks economically. We don't need that.


The idea of a United Ireland is an outdated romantic dream, sung about by The Wolfe Tones, nothing else.

Despite all evidence to the contrary!

X

Boston

never

bonkey

Originally posted by Bond-James Bond
A way would be found around that.

A way could be found around the constitutional rights of one faction of the society to have a say in the future of the nation???

Uh-huh. Care to enlighten us as to how it could be done, and why the protestant community havent used your loophole to screw the catholics already, given that they currently have the majority?

Or were you just posting glib one-liners with no actual substance?

jc

Von

When there's a nationalist majority in NI and if the unionists don't respect a democratic all Ireland vote for a united ireland then we go in with bulldozers and troops to teach them a lesson. Any violent unionist response (stone throwing) will be denounced as terrorism and will justify harsher security measures such as assassination of political leaders, the shooting of hoodied kids and more bulldozing of terrorist havens like the shankill. We'll put Sand in charge of establishing law and order. After a bit of carnage, we'll offer them half of Antrim and a tiny bit of Belfast in exchange for an end to terrorist activities. That or nothing. If they refuse, then we'll have no option but to enforce stricter military measures.

Only joking. Sorta.

FatB

personnally, i would love to see an united Ireland but as it stands the R.O.I. could not keep maintence on the infrastructure that the u.k. has built, the economy in n.i. is poor in a sence but if we were to unite then how could we possiably offer even half as much as the u.k. do in the line of factorys and the sort, we can barely get investment from multinational companys already for the south of ireland, would it not be a better idea to make it a whole country on its own if that is the case as it WOULD drag ireland even further down than it already is.

point = its not good for us(r.o.i.) and its definitly not good for n.i.!!!

as for Jaden's statement (An unification between the republic of Ireland, and that little British piece of territory with whom we share an Island would be economic suicide.) i agree to it all.

Victor

Originally posted by Meh
It doesn't matter which community has a majority. Under the Belfast Agreement, the constitutional status of NI can't be changed without the consent of a majority of both communities.

I think it states that it should be a majority of the population, not two separate majorities within the two communities.

The regional government needs a minimum support of 40% of each community on disputed votes.

Personally, I suspect that a united Ireland will come about more through a united Europe than anything else.

mike65

I'd vote no if I had the vote which I dont because I'm not a citizen (but I am a taxpayer!).

A united Ireland would be no such thing as it would contain at least a million really pissed off unionists which is an ugly thought at the best of times, but just as bad would be the pollution of an already coruptable political class with Norn Iron Shinners and "community activists" of both creeds. God help us.

All the points about the costs of absorbing the "occupied counties" and the economic crisis caused by a 32 war I agree with.

Also, in the spirit if the late Spike Milligan if there were to be a vote why note ask for a united Ireland within the UK? he! he!

Mike.

n.catenthusiast

I can't see a united Ireland anytime soon-referendum or otherwise-would any politician agree to start something which could unlease another 30 years of troubles?
anyway, before we got independance nationalists had a minority in Ireland. Northern Ireland was created aritificially, so whose to say that in the event of a refurendum, areas such as Derry city will transfer to the republic, but Belfast and the other Unionist areas will remain in Britian, creating another new state, and a complete starting-over of the troubles?

Victor

Originally posted by n.catenthusiast
anyway, before we got independance nationalists had a minority in Ireland.

Eh, no, the Home Rule Party held about 70-80% of the 100 or so seats.

Originally posted by n.catenthusiast
Northern Ireland was created aritificially, so whose to say that in the event of a refurendum, areas such as Derry city will transfer to the republic

Repartition is a possibility, but a problematic one. Derry's Altnagelvin hospital is on the (unionist) east bank of the Foyle, What would the city do for a hospital if these areas don't become part of the Republic? Likewise much of the police / army infrastucture is there and no doubt quite a few other necessary services. And what would the unionists to to go shopping? Or attend certain religious services (in the Fountain area).

That said there are certain areas like East Fermanagh and South Armagh that would receive benefits from re-partition, e.g. the Cavan - Clones road crosses the border 4 times in less than 10 miles.

Originally posted by n.catenthusiast
but Belfast and the other Unionist areas will remain in Britian, creating another new state, and a complete starting-over of the troubles?

More fundamentally, the Belfast City Council LGD is now majority Catholic (as so many Protestants have moved to places like North Down, Antrim, Ballymena & Craigavon). Do you 'abandon' those Catholics in a two-and-a-half county Northern Ireland? Move them 50 miles? Or have a convoluted border including North Armagh and North Down in the North, but West Belfast in the Republic?

Think of all the hassle we would have been saved if we got rid of Donegal in 1921.

Meh

Originally posted by Victor
Repartition is a possibility, but a problematic one. Derry's Altnagelvin hospital is on the (unionist) east bank of the Foyle, What would the city do for a hospital if these areas don't become part of the Republic?

That one's easy. On Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays, it will be in the Republic. On Tuesdays, Thursdays and Saturdays the border will shift so that it's in Norn Iron. (On Sundays, it will be Swiss territory.)

Victor

Originally posted by Meh
That one's easy. On Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays, it will be in the Republic. On Tuesdays, Thursdays and Saturdays the border will shift so that it's in Norn Iron. (On Sundays, it will be Swiss territory.)

How about doing an Andorra? Spanish police one year, French the next? Then back to Spanish and so on. And you have foreign dignataries as head of state!

http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/an.html

Andorra Government - Executive branch: chief of state: French Coprince Jacques CHIRAC (since 17 May 1995), represented by Frederic de SAINT-SERNIN (since NA); Spanish Coprince Episcopal Monseigneur Joan MARTI Alanis (since 31 January 1971), represented by Nemesi MARQUES OSTE (since NA)

Typedef

The only way for a united Ireland would be to coerce the loyalists into it, which would make 'us' as bad as 'them' and after all we are better than our brutish enemy now aren't we?

Repartition the border to incorporate nationalist areas perhaps, so that literally only people who 'wanted' to live in the Republic could and there would be no question of coercing an unwilling unionist population into a 32 county Republic.

Simple facts are yes, the six counties were created in the form that they were to try and make the Northern State 'economically viable' this is how the notion of partition (or at least the reason for it) actually got negated in the process of implementing it as the military costs of maintaining such a state far outweighed the supposed economic value of have made the province six_county_size_x, as opposed to three(unionist ostensibly)_country_size_y.

Parts of Derry, Fermanagh and Tyrone could effectively become part of the Republic with pretty small unionist populations incorporated say (5-10%), perhaps this is much too aloof a view of the Northern Problem, but in Nationalists concentrations like in Belfast perhaps a Berlin Wall solution could be made viable. I stress that power-sharing governance with all of it's flaws is perfreable to this kind of solution, lets face it, just because the nationalists were downtrodden does not give the nationalists the right or remit to do the same to their unionist neighbours just because the tables turn slightly, like I say that would make the Irish a kind of European Israel, not somewhere I want 'my country' to go.

I personally do not want to live in a country with Ian Paisley, nor his reformed Protestant Unionist Party (DUP) and I would not attempt to coerce people so vociferous in their opposition to an issue such as this, that would make the Irish akin to the Israelis and akin to the old world British Imperialists of the 1800's.

This creeping conglomeration of North and South is undemocratic, it seems as if the British are trying to cut the North loose which is fine, but I don't want loyalists and unionists living in the Republic when it's not where they want to be, that will simply bring war to this Republic and that cannot be allowed. That is why I say if power sharing cannot be made to work, then repartition the six counties so that only unionist areas and unionist areas alone fall under the jurisdiction of the crown leaving nationalist areas solely under the jurisdiction of the Republic, with little to no ambigious areas, in effect total and complete partition of the two warring communities, any other kind of issue fudge leaves the way open for a degeneration into war and war must be avoided at all costs.

Bottom line is if the Irish cannot learn after the years of British misrule, how to take stock of the rights of other people (no matter how much you disagree or how much it's not really in your 'interests') then 'we' Irish collectively are a big bunch of hypocrits.

Our brutish enemy is massing, but never fear brave soldiers of destiny, big brother will protect our way of life, he will make the streams flow with our enemies blood...... he will protect the innocent in their time of strife from the inhuman enemy.....'drop kick me jesus through the goal posts of life'

Chaos-Engine

I think some of use are forgeting an importnat fact. "Being Catholic doesn't neccessarily make you a republican... And not all SDLP voters are nationalists".
I for one wouldn't like to see a united Ireland. While the idea is a romantic one it just isn't pratical.
I mean Ireland benefits from the border. If it wasn't for the border we wou;dn't have as many liberal laws as we do, i.e. The Irish legislate like the brits do, the brits tend to be that bit more liberal than we are.
Economic issues also. the north is like a huge black spot...

As for the Pound Vs Euro issue. The Euro would benefit the north. Its weakness makes it perfect for exporting and competitivness. The Euro would help solve some of the serious economic problems in the north.

I'd vote NO... I like the way it is now. Anythin up there is Mister Blair's problem

bonkey

Originally posted by n.catenthusiast
Northern Ireland was created aritificially

This isnt quite a fair statement.

The implementation of the border was artificial, in that it was supposed to reflect the wishes of the majorities along the border fringes, and was supposed to be reviewed along those lines. In fact, it was reviewed more along geographic lines.

However, the actual creation of a seperate state in the North was a good solution to the fact that it was the one "unionist stronghold" in the country - and had been for a long time. Historically, the North-Eastern corner always had stronger ties with the Sasannachs than the rest of the country.

The division in the North did not come about when the state won its freedom - it had been there for an awfully long time before then. These people would probably have brought about another civil war had they been forced into the Republic when we gained our independance.

Therefore, to say it is artificial is slightly misleading....but that could be me reading more into what you said than you meant.

As to repartitioning - its no longer practical, beyond reallocating some farmland to lie in one nation or another to clear up silly things like the Clones/Monaghan road and its border crossings. Realloacting individual populated areas would be impossible. How could you define the granularity? Would it have to be a minimum area? Population? How would you handle border-crossings, legal differences etc? What would the impact be to businesses? Could we simply declare that factory X which used to be in the North was now in the Republic, complete with all the financial impacts?

It would never work from a practical poiint of view, even ignoring the ideological issues.

Also, when people talk about supporting the idea of some form of repartitioning, I assume they would also support areas in the republic having the freedom to "vote themselves" into the North?

jc

NewSteelSplash

We are now talking about this mess because certain politicians had'nt got the balls to challenge the brittish and ran off with their tails between their legs not too long ago (less than a century!)

We are entitled to unity and everybody knows this.

We WILL have a United Ireland in a few years time

Aspro

We are entitled to unity and everybody knows this.

We are entitled to nothing if it is at the expense of an entire portion of the population. Coercing Northern protestants into a united Ireland would result in civil war.

The over-riding entitlement of everyone on this island is for a peaceful and secure life.

We WILL have a United Ireland in a few years time

Sinn Fein's dream would be our nightmare.

bonkey

Originally posted by NewSteelSplash
We are now talking about this mess because certain politicians had'nt got the balls to challenge the brittish and ran off with their tails between their legs not too long ago (less than a century!)

Riiiiight. Because the other option was to stand up to the British, get nothing other than a large-scale military incursion, and remain under their firm control.

We are entitled to unity and everybody knows this.

Could you enlighten me as to :

a) Why it is an entitlement
b) Why the unionists arent entitled to their wishes
c) How everyone knows this when there is so much dissent.

I'm hoping this is a troll, because otherwise it smacks of a contentless republicanist rant, rather than some form of informed comment.

jc

Victor

Originally posted by bonkey
The implementation of the border was artificial, in that it was supposed to reflect the wishes of the majorities along the border fringes, and was supposed to be reviewed along those lines. In fact, it was reviewed more along geographic lines.

The border is more historical than political or geographic in nature. It merely took the historical county boundaries of the 6 counties that then had Unionist majorities. In places these boundaries ran along rivers and montain tops - no problem there. However, all to often it ran along roads or crossed tehm repeatedly, through houses and farm buildings, doubled back on itself .....

Originally posted by bonkey
However, the actual creation of a seperate state in the North was a good solution to the fact that it was the one "unionist stronghold" in the country - and had been for a long time. Historically, the North-Eastern corner always had stronger ties with the Sasannachs than the rest of the country.

This is not to say that theis was the only area with stong Unionist, Protestant or British heritages. Many parts of Dublin and in particular the townships of Rathmines, Pembroke and Dun Laoghaire, parts of Wicklow, Donegal and Cork had (and to a much lesser degree still have) such an outlook.

mike65

Reading through the thread just now and I was just starting to think everybody is being so reasonable and mature then, bang!
NewSteelSplash posts just to remind us of how things used to be here...:rolleyes:

Mike.