Away Team Experiment - Bookies

Culchie

I have a friend who is a bit of a 'statto' ....he loves maths and statistics, little interest in football.

He reckons that if you backed every single away team for every Premiership game for the season, that you would finish the season in profit.

Anyone fancy giving it a go, or at least keeping a spreadsheet of results and returns to a €10 stake per match?

KdjaCL

Mate of mine does the same at tournaments but bets on a Draw, Starts with a fiver bet one 1st game to draw, then a tenner on 2nd game 15 on 3rd and keeps going etc:


Works out in profit after a while.


It would work but best done with a online betting account where you can sit and bet €1 on every game to be an away win.


kdjac

masterK

KdjaC wrote:

Mate of mine does the same at tournaments but bets on a Draw, Starts with a fiver bet one 1st game to draw, then a tenner on 2nd game 15 on 3rd and keeps going etc:

That's a well known gambling strategy, it doesn't matter who you bet on once the odds are greater than evens, eventually one of your bets has to win.

Another one that might be worth having a look at is backing the draw in all game that don't involve Arsenal, Man U, Liverpool, Chelsea, Newcastle and Spurs. And to take it one step further back the correct score to be 0-0 or 1-1. Have you ever noticed the amount of games involving the likes of Charlton, Bolton, Villa, Birmingham etc that end in a draw.

This weekends qualifiers would be:

Aston Villa V Bolton
Fulham V Birmingham
Man City V West Brom
Sunderland V Charlton
West Ham V Blackburn

The odds in each match are 15/2 for a 0-0 and 5/1 for a 1-1. Lets see if you put €1 on each would you make a profit.

Culchie

KdjaC wrote:

Mate of mine does the same at tournaments but bets on a Draw, Starts with a fiver bet one 1st game to draw, then a tenner on 2nd game 15 on 3rd and keeps going etc:


Works out in profit after a while.


It would work but best done with a online betting account where you can sit and bet €1 on every game to be an away win.


kdjac

Yeh, known as doubling up. Often seen in Casinos, €5 on black, lose,€10 on black, lose €20 onblack, eventually you have to win ..... but you need deep bankroll to sustain a bad run. Favourites in horse races is another way this method is commonly used .

Culchie

masterK wrote:

That's a well known gambling strategy, it doesn't matter who you bet on once the odds are greater than evens, eventually one of your bets has to win.

Another one that might be worth having a look at is backing the draw in all game that don't involve Arsenal, Man U, Liverpool, Chelsea, Newcastle and Spurs. And to take it one step further back the correct score to be 0-0 or 1-1. Have you ever noticed the amount of games involving the likes of Charlton, Bolton, Villa, Birmingham etc that end in a draw.

This weekends qualifiers would be:

Aston Villa V Bolton
Fulham V Birmingham
Man City V West Brom
Sunderland V Charlton
West Ham V Blackburn

The odds in each match are 15/2 for a 0-0 and 5/1 for a 1-1. Lets see if you put €1 on each would you make a profit.

This I like ...

redspider

Culchie wrote:

Yeh, known as doubling up. Often seen in Casinos, €5 on black, lose,€10 on black, lose €20 onblack, eventually you have to win ..... but you need deep bankroll to sustain a bad run. Favourites in horse races is another way this method is commonly used .

I dont want to encourage betting, but the best place to apply betting systems are for events that take place very often. The problem with football matches, lets say the english league, is that there would typically be only 38 games per team, so 380 games/betting events in all in a season. A Casino has much more betting events, you could probably get 380 events in one day at the roulette wheel, a real one, not an online one!

In terms of systems there are as many as there are gamblers. I've used the doubling up strategy, which works best on a 50-50 event that pays evens. So, bet like this:
1 (unit), 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, etc .... you will need a deep pocket if you have a run against you, or if the roulette worker can fix the result

The theory is proven: if you have an infinite amount of money, you will win an infinite amount of money. There are buts of course ....

A better system is what I've called the 1-3-9 system. Thats, 1-3-9-27-81-243, etc. More winnings and you will need even a bigger budget in case of a bad run. You will also need to be better at arithmetic.

But be warned, these betting systems may seem simple and people can win money but you can:

a) end up getting kicked out of a casino when you are in a loss position
b) become addicted to gambling
c) waste a lot of time/life, etc

At the end of the day, only bookies are guaranteed to make money at gambling. If you want to make money at gambling, run a book!

in case of problems, google: gamblers anonymous

redspider

Keano_sli

There is one guaranteed way to get something out of a bookie, I see gamebookers.ie are doing the free Premiership shirt offer again this season, for any new user who bets €50 on a premiership outright.
I got an Irish shirt from them last year in a similar offer, I think it was on here I saw someone mention it. :cool:

Chardee MacDennis

Here ya go, use it if you want, i prob will. god i am bored....

Culchie

Hee Hee

Good Man.

Will you keep track of the away results then for the craic. Say an even €10 on each away team for the whole season ??

Thank God for Boards.ie eh ?

Chardee MacDennis

i have a tendency to start with good ideas and then they die out but ill try... so €100 a week?

btw xl file is wrong - it doesnt return your stake. i'll fix it an repost it.

Chardee MacDennis

i think its fixed

Chardee MacDennis

well e11 up after the first day!!! would be interested if you backed chelsea on every match as well...

masterK

masterK wrote:

Another one that might be worth having a look at is backing the draw in all game that don't involve Arsenal, Man U, Liverpool, Chelsea, Newcastle and Spurs. And to take it one step further back the correct score to be 0-0 or 1-1. Have you ever noticed the amount of games involving the likes of Charlton, Bolton, Villa, Birmingham etc that end in a draw.

This weekends qualifiers would be:

Aston Villa V Bolton
Fulham V Birmingham
Man City V West Brom
Sunderland V Charlton
West Ham V Blackburn

The odds in each match are 15/2 for a 0-0 and 5/1 for a 1-1.

This worked out not too badly, 3 of the 5 matches finished in draws, two 0-0. It might be worth leaving west ham out in future as it would appear that there will be plenty of goals in their matches. If you put €10 on each bet you'd have made a profit of €70.

redspider

Another system for betting is to wait until the season has gotten underway, say 10 games, and then use the pts attained as a measure of capability. Using a weight for the home side, such as 1.6, this proves to be a very good predictor of results on a consistent basis.

eg:
table after 10 games
A 20 pts
B 15 pts
C 10 pts
D 5 pts

A v D (home win) = 1.6 x 20 >> 5
D v A (away win) = 1.6 x 5 << 20
C v B (draw) = 1.6 x 10 <=> 15
B v C (home win)
B v A (draw)

etc, you get the picture

You need to work out what difference in values constitutes a win or a draw, some percentage such as 10% or 7%. You can also adjust the algorithmic home multipleir of 1.6 based on the type of the league, eg: if its very close or not. You could get complicated and use a best-fit analysis (linear programming) of the results up to the 10-game stage to determine the value for the league, it may be 1.734 or 1.486 or something. 1.6 is a rough value which "may" work for some leagues.

This algorithm does not work at the early stage of a season as form has not been set, but it could start as early as the 5th or 6th game.

I guess my interest in betting systems has been re-ignited somewhat as I won 100 euro over the weekend using one whilst I watched another chap squander about 500 euro in less time without a system.

I hope I dont become addicted ....

redspider

redspider

Culchie wrote:

He reckons that if you backed every single away team for every Premiership game for the season, that you would finish the season in profit.

I doubt that very much. I'd say you would get about 80-95% of your money back, depending on which bookie you go to. Bookies compete with each other so some provide more attractive odds than others, unless they are laying off. But overall, a statto would know that betting lindly on away teams all the time will tend to you winning some bets and losing others, and over a season, losing out.

A waste of time doing it for this season imo. Even if you do end up this season, it doesnt prove the theory, as you will need to run it over several seasons. Your mileage may vary and mathematically this is pointing towards a losing algorithm. I agree with Pigman to use backtesting on last years results, that is if you can find the odds from a particular bookie, which I understand is not always easy.

Master K's algorithm is interesting. There is a solid base of evidence that the teams in the middle of the table do draw more than the other teams. Master K, are you going to keep the results on your system as that is more promising than the "blindly bet on all away teams" strategy.

> well e11 up after the first day!!!

From your JPEG it looks as if you have Liverpool winning 1-3. Whilst I wish that were the case, it was a 0-0 draw. Does that affect your "winnings"?

redspider

Pigman II

Instead of starting from scratch why not just run the numbers over last seasons results and see what the outcome was? That way you can get your answer on wheter it works or not today.

masterK

redspider wrote:

Master K's algorithm is interesting. There is a solid base of evidence that the teams in the middle of the table do draw more than the other teams. Master K, are you going to keep the results on your system as that is more promising than the "blindly bet on all away teams" strategy.

> well e11 up after the first day!!!

From your JPEG it looks as if you have Liverpool winning 1-3. Whilst I wish that were the case, it was a 0-0 draw. Does that affect your "winnings"?

redspider

Good spot, so it should have been a loss of €24 instead of a profit. I can't see how this approach would ever make a profit, it's also worth pointing out that three of what I would regards the top 4 played away (Man U, Liverpool, Chelsea). Next week they'll all be at home making more difficult for an away teams profit.

As for my approach my thinking was that there are so many teams in the premiership that do not score many goals and when these teams play one and other the quite often cancel each other out. I'll keep it going for a few weeks to see how it goes.

The qualifying matches for next weekend will be

Blackburn V Fulham
Charlton V Wigan
Birmingham V Man City

Bateman

Another system I reckon would pay easy money is to lay the 3 promoted teams in every match they play. The odds you would be laying are quite long, and a loss will wipe out a lot of winnings. For example, West Ham would have cost you a lot more than you would have won on Wigan and Sunderland. One way to apply this better would be to lay the 3 promoted teams in every AWAY game they play. I reckon that last season this would have delivered a significant profit and I've started it this season.

redspider

Bateman wrote:

Another system I reckon would pay easy money is to lay the 3 promoted teams in every match they play. The odds you would be laying are quite long, and a loss will wipe out a lot of winnings. For example, West Ham would have cost you a lot more than you would have won on Wigan and Sunderland. One way to apply this better would be to lay the 3 promoted teams in every AWAY game they play. I reckon that last season this would have delivered a significant profit and I've started it this season.

Not a bad one perhaps. Yesterday, even though two of the three promoted teams were at home, some money could have been made with this, as according to the JPEG:

Sunderland: 1.875 to lose
Wigan: 0.333 to lose
so a gain of 2.208
with a loss of 1 at West Ham as they won =>
overall gain of 1.208

so, with a betting unit of 10 euro, thats a gain of 12.08
there is tax out of that though ....

Like all agorithms and sure-fire things, this needs extensive testing but the "away only" version looks like a possibility.

Bateman, will you monitor and measure it for this season so we can all learn more as you are doing it?

To do all this testing, the odds need to be posted up, and from a single source to have a proper set of data. Is someone going to volunteer to do that?

redspider

masterK

After a €70 profit for a €10 stake on each outcome last week, the qualifying matches for the draw experiment I have mentioned earlier in the thread are:

Blackburn V Fulham
Charlton V Wigan
Birmingham V Man City

They are all 15/2 for a 0-0 and 5/1 for a 1-1.

Culchie

masterK wrote:

Good spot, so it should have been a loss of €24 instead of a profit. I can't see how this approach would ever make a profit, it's also worth pointing out that three of what I would regards the top 4 played away (Man U, Liverpool, Chelsea). Next week they'll all be at home making more difficult for an away teams profit.

I'd imagine that the whole thinking behind this approach proving profitable is the 'shock' results that no-one in their right mind would back.

If it is no trouble to yourself, please keep that spreadsheet updated, I'm interested to see how it will work out.

My mate 'Statto' seems pretty sure it will be ahead at the end of the season.

redspider

masterK wrote:

After a €70 profit for a €10 stake on each outcome last week, the qualifying matches for the draw experiment I have mentioned earlier in the thread are:

Blackburn V Fulham
Charlton V Wigan
Birmingham V Man City

They are all 15/2 for a 0-0 and 5/1 for a 1-1.

I checked the prices that Paddy Power are offering:

Blackburn V Fulham 0-0 15/2 1-1 5/1
Charlton V Wigan 0-0 17/2 1-1 5/1
Birmingham V Man C 0-0 15/2 1-1 9/2

So just slightly different than your prices, better in one and worse in another. Which bookie did you use?

redspider

Culchie

redspider wrote:

I checked the prices that Paddy Power are offering:

Blackburn V Fulham 0-0 15/2 1-1 5/1
Charlton V Wigan 0-0 17/2 1-1 5/1
Birmingham V Man C 0-0 15/2 1-1 9/2

So just slightly different than your prices, better in one and worse in another. Which bookie did you use?

redspider

http://www.oddschecker.com/betting/mode/c/card/england-barclayspremiership/scard/74/btype/M

Shop around for best odds.

Take it

are the scores for day one wrong? liverpool didnt have an away win it was 0-0

masterK

redspider wrote:

I checked the prices that Paddy Power are offering:

Blackburn V Fulham 0-0 15/2 1-1 5/1
Charlton V Wigan 0-0 17/2 1-1 5/1
Birmingham V Man C 0-0 15/2 1-1 9/2

So just slightly different than your prices, better in one and worse in another. Which bookie did you use?

redspider

I use Paddy Power as well, I was just being lazy and only checked the first one as all 5 matches last week had the same prices as well as the first one I checked.

Chardee MacDennis

i'll keep it going for a while, have to change liverpool dont know where that came from

redspider

Culchie wrote:

http://www.oddschecker.com/betting/mode/c/card/england-barclayspremiership/scard/74/btype/M

Thanks for that link Culchie, interesting to have a price checker. Fo real betting, it does pay to shop around, maybe only by 5%, but that will add up if you are betting a lot and using a system.

Btw, its now 17:24, two of the selected draw bets have lost, so just Birmingham v Man C left.

redspider

And Man C won, so the 0-0 and 1-1 bets all lost. Whats the tally now?

masterK

Draw Qualifiers

Blackburn V Fulham 2-1
Charlton V Wigan 1-0
Birmingham V Man C 1-2

Poor week with none of the 3 matches ending in a draw. Each match was only the one goal out though, that's a loss of €60 for the week leaving the seasons profit to date at €10.

The midweek qualifiers are:

Birmingham V Middlesboro 0-0 - 15/2, 1-1 - 5/1
Portsmouth V Aston Villa 0-0 - 15/2, 1-1 - 5/1
Sunderland V Man City 0-0 - 15/2, 1-1 - 5/1

Chardee MacDennis

poor week for this too a loss of 50e with only two away wins. so we are ~65 down for the two weeks

masterK

Call_me_al, Where are you getting your odds from, are you taking the best available or just using a particular bookmaker?