Cash game hand from Samba's home game.

Lafortezza

Ok the exact details of this hand are a bit sketchy in my mind so here is what I remember.

My mate Foxy is in MP.
DapperGent is in MP2.
DeVore is on the button.

Preflop: Blinds 25c - 50c
Foxy raises to €5. DapperGent raises to €20. Devore on the button pushes all-in for around €55. Foxy pushes for about €40.
DapperGent needs to put €30 more into the pot to win around €115. Slightly less than 4/1 odds. He deliberates and calls with pocket 5's.

This hand caused a nice vociferous drunken conversation about whether or not it was a good call by Dapper, given the pot odds and the likely hand ranges of Foxy and Dev given the way the prefop action went. Dapper and henbane were of the opinion that while not a fantastic call, it was still an acceptable call and probably +EV.
Myself and DeVore and Samba thought it was a terrible call.

I won't post the results yet, firstly cos they aren't really relevant to whether it was a good call or not, secondly I want to hear peoples opinions first.

Hectorjelly

In most games the person in De Vores position is folding every hand bar AA or maybe KK, so unless your getting better than 4-1 its a bad call, however In a game where somebody is reraising a early position raiser to 40 BB's with 55 then Im pretty sure that this is a call, albeit a marginal one.

If Devore hand range is limited to AA or KK then its a fold, as Dappers equity is about 18%

If its quite loose, and importantly if it includes AK and AQ, its a clear call, as dappers equity is about 25.% Obv any player affects the EV the same but he has shown the most strength.

The only way that this is a terrible call would be if both De Vore and 1 of the other players had quite a small range of possible hands.

RasTa

Sounds like classic drunken poker! There is no way i would raise to 20 quid with 55 but after doing the raise that big i would of called it

DeVore

What if my range of hands is AA-TT + AK (which is pretty much what it would be, and in fact, I might well drop AK in that situation, though not on that table that evening).

DeV.

DeVore

I'm confused, what equity are you refering to HJ?
It goes:

Foxy: Raise to 5
Dapper: Raise to 20
Me: All In
Foxy: All In.
Dapper: ???

Theres no folding equity and Dapper has us both covered. Its a straight up math question once he decides the odds of either of us holding a pp higher then 55 and if so what his odds of a set are (with us also hitting a set).

DeV.

Hectorjelly

DeVore wrote:

I'm confused, what equity are you refering to HJ?
It goes:

Foxy: Raise to 5
Dapper: Raise to 20
Me: All In
Foxy: All In.
Dapper: ???

Theres no folding equity and Dapper has us both covered. Its a straight up math question once he decides the odds of either of us holding a pp higher then 55 and if so what his odds of a set are (with us also hitting a set).

DeV.

His equity in the pot. If he has a 20% equity in the pot he will win 1 in 5 times denoted as 1:4.

Hectorjelly

DeVore wrote:

What if my range of hands is AA-TT + AK (which is pretty much what it would be, and in fact, I might well drop AK in that situation, though not on that table that evening).

DeV.

Then its a call as his equity is about 22%

DeVore

sorry, thought you meant folding equity.... I always refer to that as "pot odds" but you say tomato and I say call.

In the end of the day he was getting 114 euros from the pot for a 30 euro wager as I recall. Its an easy mistake to fall into actually, his reraise UTG+1 isnt a terrible move and neither is the call when he lands himself priced in but looking at the whole hand it looks like dreadful play with 55! It was that kinda night. Foxy's hysterical and repeated all ins for anything up to 110 euro on a 25/50c blind UTG was the hall mark of the night. After doing it literally half a dozen times he did it and Henbane called him with 55 to his JJ and tripped up on the river!
5's were bad beats for me too, as enda rivered one for a full house and rossa for a straight. Also Omaha was a laugh when i bluffed everyone off the pot (including LaFoldEasy with AAxx) having paired the top card (an 8). Hey! I had a Jack kicker!

DeV.

Samba

Henbane actually had pocket 3's on that hand.

How many inside straight draws were filled for €140 pots? The madness..... oh the madness....


Personally I would have droppped the 5's as unless you hit your set you are in a bad way against two overs or High pockets.

But as 20 was already in there you gotta be thinking, eeek got some committment to this pot

DapperGent

Hmmm, this is a little like someone posting up pictures from when you were drunk.

Anyway, I actually like this call better now than I did at the time. My feeling at the time was that the holdings were:

Foxy: Any two cards.
Dev: Any two half decent cards.

I felt Dev knew as well as I did that Foxy was raising with utter trash and wanted me out take him on heads up or have him fold. I don't think he needed good cards to do this as I had been raising with trash all night.

I felt that Dev's range of hands included AK, AQ, AJ, possibly AT and KQ. As well as any decent pocket pair. The time I took call wasn't to put Dev on cards but to figure out if it was worth a call with that range. My head was fuzzy.

Anyway I think (think) Foxy had 96o, Dev has 1010, me spikes set for monstrous pot.

This was at the sweet spot of drunkeness. A got steadily more drunk and eventually called Davey Devil's all in with mid-pair and a J high flush draw on the turn for most of my chips.

Great night of poker though!

Davey Devil

Foxy had A,Q.

Lafortezza

Foxy had AhQh, I knew as you should have that Foxy only had €5 invested in the pot when DeV went all-in for €50, after Dapper had reraised to €20, but foxy still pushed his €40 into the pot instantly. You have to put him on at least 2 picture cards, I put him on AK.
He was stoned but not *that* stoned.

Samba

Just curious but would you consider it to be a great call if you didn't hit your 5? As quite frankly if you did not, you were in a world of pain.

Yes you had Pot odds, that does not mean you throw hand odds out the window tho, just my view on the hand.


Would you play the hand over and over again and call every time? It is my suspicion that this call each time would not be very profitable in the long run.

jem

Having read this tread, while there was pot odds you wern't pot committed.With 2 all in before you and just a small pair in your hand, I would probably have folded, while you might be a coin flip with one all in the likelyhood of you being substancially behind one of the two of them. You effectivly had only two outs. I would have folded.

Lafortezza

Can anyone do one of those new-fangled mathematical calculations on this question? Use poker-kettle or whatever its called.

Marq

anyone want to have a homegame this sunday? just wondering, not like i'm offering to host one or anything.

Waylander

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

296,082,864 games 3.190 secs 92,815,944 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 43.1000 % [ 00.43 00.00 ] { 55 }
Hand 2: 24.6838 % [ 00.24 00.01 ] { AQs }
Hand 3: 32.2162 % [ 00.31 00.01 ] { AKo }

Waylander

Was not sure what hand Dev had so I allocated him AKo. I do not think it was a bad call, particularly if Foxy was playing that loose all night.

Hitman Actual

Using Poker Calculator for the hands given:

55: 18%
AhQh: 38.5%
TT: 43.5%

And I think the the pot is 120, with 35 required to call (is this right?), which gives EV of (0.18 x 155) - (0.82 x 35) = -0.8 i.e. -EV.

But given the possible holdings of the other players:

55: 31.25%
Devs hand => AA-99, AK-AT, KQ: 47.5%
Foxys hand => random! : 21.25%

Equity = (0.3125 x 155) - (0.6875 x 35) = 24.0625 i.e +EV

I think this is correct... any errors?

Hectorjelly

Samba wrote:

Just curious but would you consider it to be a great call if you didn't hit your 5? As quite frankly if you did not, you were in a world of pain.

Yes you had Pot odds, that does not mean you throw hand odds out the window tho, just my view on the hand.


Would you play the hand over and over again and call every time? It is my suspicion that this call each time would not be very profitable in the long run.

What are hand odds? If you are getting pot odds to call then you will make money in the long run.

Samba

Hand odds are that you will hit a third 5 1 in 8.

Are you suggesting that everytime you are holding 23o and you get "pot odds" you call? and will win more money in the long run?


If you encountered this situation 10 times in a row with the same hands but different flops you are honestly telling me Hector that you will be in profit?

I find it hard to see how you will make a profit in the long run, please do point out to me how you will make money with this call every time? I am curious.

bohsman

Youve got to remember that Samba is currently trying to decide which will win more often in 60 40 situations, lets leave it a while before talking about pot odds

Hectorjelly

Samba wrote:

Hand odds are that you will hit a third 5 1 in 8.

Are you suggesting that everytime you are holding 23o and you get "pot odds" you call? and will win more money in the long run?


If you encountered this situation 10 times in a row with the same hands but different flops you are honestly telling me Hector that you will be in profit?

I find it hard to see how you will make a profit in the long run, please do point out to me how you will make money with this call every time? I am curious.

The fact that you are getting pot odds means that it is a profitable call, if you werent getting pot odds it wouldnt be. Thats what pot odds means. Pot odds means that you can enter many pots even though your chance of winning might be quiet slim, because the payoff is much bigger than the amount you have to stake. If I gave you a dice and said Id pay you $10 every time you rolled a 6 for a $1 stake would you take it?

This is a slight simplication becuase technically getting exact pot odds means that the call is neither profitable nor lossmaking.

In the situation above, dappergent was getting such great odds for his last few euros that it was only a slightly bad call if one of his opponents had an overpair. The mistake he would make by calling against an overpair would of been less that the mistake he would make by folding the only pair.

bohsman

Its 1 in 5 that you will hit across the board and the board is laying you at least 5/1 from what I can see without doing the math.

So yes if every time the pot is giving you 5/1 or better you call you will make money in the long run, maybe not over 10 hands but long term yes

Samba

I understand precisely what Pot odds are. I prefer to also consider the strength of my hand when it comes to pot odds and 55, is not a hand I am calling my entire stack with no matter how good the pot odds are.

Samba

Show me the math how this is profitable over a long period and I will accept that it was a good call.



Sorry Oscar, how much was it you lost last time I was talking to you?


Can I also reiterate that Tom was holding 10 10........

bohsman

No Idea Samba but Im well up for the year think my biggest losing night was 500 so possibly 500?

Anyway the maths of it goes like this, you will hit trips which should win you the pot one in five times, so for every five times you stick your money in you will win more than five times what you put in. This is also known as pot odds

Davey Devil

Would I be right in saying the raise to €20 is the bad play in this series of events? Foxy raises to €5 and Dapper goes to €20 with 5's?

I know it was Foxy but I'm never raising to €20 with about 4 players still to act behind me. If Dapper had of flat called the €5 then Tom goes over the top for €55, then Foxy calls - now Dapper makes an easy fold.

Isn't that better poker all round?

bohsman

From the looks of it there wasnt exactly a lot of good poker played, I dont like the rereraise by Tom with 1010 either

DapperGent

Davey Devil wrote:

Foxy had A,Q.

. 96o must've been a different hand.

Davey Devil wrote:

Would I be right in saying the raise to €20 is the bad play in this series of events? Foxy raises to €5 and Dapper goes to €20 with 5's?

I know it was Foxy but I'm never raising to €20 with about 4 players still to act behind me. If Dapper had of flat called the €5 then Tom goes over the top for €55, then Foxy calls - now Dapper makes an easy fold.

Isn't that better poker all round?

Absolutely.

I could also been completely mistaken about the range of hands Dev could have reraised with. Maybe it was only AK and TT-AA, I don't think so though, it was a messy game.

Also Samba, are my KEMs in your gaff?

Samba

I believe Luke has them.

O.k the pot Dapper won was 150 approx. 100 of this is profit.


He calls 5 times to the tune of 250


So you stand to make 150 1 in 5 at a cost of 250.


Can someone please point out how this is a profitable call?

Have I forgotten somthing in my very simplistic calculation?

Because to me that looks like a loss.

Oh yes, the 10s will also hit.....

DapperGent

Samba wrote:

Can someone please point out how this is a profitable call?

The call under debate is at the end for €30, the original raise is unarguably bad given the amount of players to act after me. The fact that my raise has already swelled the pot is the only way my last call could ever be considered long term +EV. Reraising an UTG raiser with 55 is certainly a long term loser.

The call is a good one if Foxy and Dev's range of hands for this action included: AK, AQ, AJ, AT, KQ or other crud. In that game at that time I thought it did if I was correct about the range then it was a good call. If Dev's range of hands for this only comprised of higher pairs then I'd be a moron to call, obviously I decided it didn't. I could be wrong, but for example it's a definate possibility in this situation for me to have called and them both to have flipped Ax where x is a King, Queen or Jack in that situation I'd have at worst about a 50% chance to win a pot on a call I got 4-1 pot odds on.

There are ways that it is a long term profitable call (I dunno if it was but it might have been) but only if my estimation of their range of hands was correct.

Samba

AK, AQ you have to.. agreed.

It was a good session of poker, look forward to the next one

Lafortezza

Interesting discussion.
I think that when Foxy raised to €5, you reraised to €20, then DeVore pushes all in for around €55, the hand range you put DeV on has to be a pair 99 or better and AQo or better, there's no way DeV will push on 88 or AJo or ATs, he was playing quite tight that night (relative to the table at least!)

When it gets back to Foxy and he pushes for €50 (with only €5 invested) you have to put him on a fairly small range of hands, even if he has been messing around a couple of hands before. I'd put him on TT or better, or AJo or better.

Taking those hand ranges for the opponents, I think the call of €30 to win €115, is a bad one.

Lafortezza

---
   1,370,754  games     0.220 secs     6,230,700  games/sec

Board: 
Dead:  

        	  equity (%)      win (%) / tie (%) 

Hand  1:	  18.0828 %   [  00.18   00.00  ]    { 5s5d }
Hand  2:	  43.5439 %   [  00.43   00.00  ]    { TsTc }
Hand  3:	  38.3733 %   [  00.38   00.00  ]    { AhQh }


---

And with my choice of DeV and Foxy's possible/likely range of hands:

---
   7,418,520,648  games    96.610 secs    76,788,330  games/sec

Board: 
Dead:  

        	  equity (%)      win (%) / tie (%) 

Hand  1:	  24.9648 %   [  00.25   00.00  ]    { 5s5d }
Hand  2:	  40.4960 %   [  00.39   00.01  ]    { AA-99, AKs-AQs, AKo-AQo }
Hand  3:	  34.5391 %   [  00.33   00.01  ]    { AA-88, AKs-ATs, KQs, AKo-AJo }


---

If we think that DeV would push on the button with a hand like 99 or AQo, and that Foxy would also push with a hand as weak as ATs or AJo or 88, then Dapper's equity goes up to almost 25%
So needing to put in anoth €30 to win €115 is still not a "good" call, but its nowhere near as bad as I first thought.

And I just spent 40 minutes messing about with PokerStove, great little programme.

Hectorjelly

lafortezza wrote:

Interesting discussion.
I think that when Foxy raised to €5, you reraised to €20, then DeVore pushes all in for around €55, the hand range you put DeV on has to be a pair 99 or better and AQo or better, there's no way DeV will push on 88 or AJo or ATs, he was playing quite tight that night (relative to the table at least!)

When it gets back to Foxy and he pushes for €50 (with only €5 invested) you have to put him on a fairly small range of hands, even if he has been messing around a couple of hands before. I'd put him on TT or better, or AJo or better.

Taking those hand ranges for the opponents, I think the call of €30 to win €115, is a bad one.

Against that exact range of hands 55 has an equity of 27%.

The pot will be 145 after the call, so to make the call correct you need at least a 30/145, which is 20%.

To answer Sambas question every time you were to fold this hand in this scenario it would cost you on average 7% of 145 euros, which is about 10 Euros.

Hectorjelly

Samba wrote:

I understand precisely what Pot odds are. I prefer to also consider the strength of my hand when it comes to pot odds and 55, is not a hand I am calling my entire stack with no matter how good the pot odds are.

That is insane

Hectorjelly

lafortezza wrote:

So needing to put in anoth €30 to win €115 is still not a "good" call, but its nowhere near as bad as I first thought.

And I just spent 40 minutes messing about with PokerStove, great little programme.

Why is it not a good call?

Samba

If your read of AK, AQ is solid then I do believe it is the correct call, but against higher pockets I do not believe it is the right decision you will lose against them more often than not.

I meant what I said in that context, knowing that your opponent has a higher PP. I will pass up those pot odds if I am certain player x has a higher PP.

Simple as that.

Hectorjelly

Samba wrote:

If your read of AK, AQ is solid then I do believe it is the correct call, but against higher pockets I do not believe it is the right decision you will lose against them more often than not.

I meant what I said in that context, knowing that your opponent has a higher PP. I will pass up those pot odds if I am certain player x has a higher PP.

Simple as that.

It still makes no sense

Lafortezza

Hectorjelly wrote:

Why is it not a good call?

Because I personally would have put both Foxy and DeV (DeV especially since he was facing a raise and a reraise and *still* stuck it in, and he was sober!) on a much smaller range of hands than the pokerstove calculation.

I chose that range based on the comments of others in the thread, should have mentioned that when I posted the pokerstove thing.

Samba

perhaps with your 20 in there it is the correct decision, you pointed that out to me.

Personally I would not have been raising 20 in this position holding 55.

essentially you are looking for a catch knowing you are going in as a dog.

DapperGent

lafortezza wrote:

Because I personally would have put both Foxy and DeV (DeV especially since he was facing a raise and a reraise and *still* stuck it in, and he was sober!) on a much smaller range of hands than the pokerstove calculation.

I chose that range based on the comments of others in the thread, should have mentioned that when I posted the pokerstove thing.

I'm still not saying I was right, I'm simply saying I was right based on the range of hands I attributed to my opponents. Which is a completely different thing.

If Dev was prepared to push of 1010 do you not think he would also have pushed in the same spot with AK, AQ or AJ?

Lafortezza

I agree, depending on the range of hands you put Foxy and Dev on it ranged from either a good call to a terrible one. I thought Foxy had AK and that Dev had a big pair, you were of clear head and the time thought their hand range was much looser.

It's all subjective.

Davey Devil

I had a peek at Foxy's hand before I saw the other's and I instantly thought he was in the shìt with A,Q. Turns out he wasn't in bad shape. Maybe I give to too much credit for other people are holding. An example of this was the Mon 100 game.

Blinds 200/400 I have around 13,000. In early position I raise to 1,500 with A,Ko. Player to my immediate left who just joined the table goes all-in for 7,500. Button goes all-in for 8,500. I wasn't too worried about the first all-in but the second guy made me think he must have QQ,KK,AA or maybe A,K also. The second guy had been at my table all night and played a solid game. I folded the AK.

First guy had 4's and the second guy who i thought must have a very big hand, bearing in mind this is the 100 game and he's put all his chips in to a raise and a re-raise has a monster K,J off. Just goes to show I give people too much credit for what they are holding.

Lafortezza

Davey Devil wrote:

Blinds 200/400 I have around 13,000. In early position I raise to 1,500 with A,Ko. Player to my immediate left who just joined the table goes all-in for 7,500. Button goes all-in for 8,500. I wasn't too worried about the first all-in but the second guy made me think he must have QQ,KK,AA or maybe A,K also. The second guy had been at my table all night and played a solid game. I folded the AK.

Depending who the players involved were I'd fold this as well in the €100 game. With blinds that small there you would usually be up against at least one big pair.

DapperGent

I'd either fold or not fold the fact that I was in the €100 game wouldn't have too much of a bearing.

Probably call. But you all know me.

Davey Devil

I think it being the €100 game is an issue. I'd never seen this player before so I'm presuming that by playing the €100 makes him a pretty solid player, not the type of player to call a raise and a re-raise with K,J off - that's a Wacky Wednesday sort of call. Also I'm not accounting for my buy-in cause I won a ticket, so it wasn't like I playing scared money.

If I raise and there's a re-raise and a call I'm presuming one of them has a pair. The other could easily have one of my cards thus reducing my out's of outdrawing the pair. I only had 1500 in the pot and I had 11,500 back with the blinds 200/400. I don't think I could ever call in this this spot, there's just no sense in taking the risk.

DeVore

Re: My TT, I had a strong read that Dapper didnt have a big pair and Foxy, well jeez, the way he'd been playing all night UTG, you could just about put him on two cards! I was pretty sure I could push them both off the pot or get heads up with one of them. Most people holding AQ in Foxys position would drop it with the action behind him, I was counting on some sanity which just wasnt there (:)) and once he calls the extra 50 euro (!) then Dapper is priced in because of his (imho) very loose big reraise.

If Foxy had folded then Dapper couldnt have called and also would have been a 5:1 dog to me.

Thats what I was thinking when I shoved with them.

DeV.

Corben Dallas

Ref teh 55's v the 10's and AQ suited? I agree with Samba its a bad call form 20 to 55 to call Devs all in. Theres no room to manoever with the 55's, the only reasoning behind that call is that u either have Dev on a massive bluff, hoping the third player will fold and then have a heads up with Dev or if u think that they are on AQ or KQ (without pairs) and maybe think that any pair might hold out because they wont hit.(this is even weaker than the first option)

Reluctance to fold (IMO a very weak hand in this sequence) could mean that its a reluctance to let the 20 go and somehow yur protecting it by shoving another 35 in!!!!!

(to use a Matrix reference)
The strenght of any tough decesion is wheter you're prepared to take it again. ie would u make the same call 5 times in this situtation.

I know I wouldnt.

henbane

Corben Dallas wrote:

blah blah blah... would u make the same call 5 times in this situtation.
I know I wouldnt.

You should