It's snowing!! (weathercheck is happy ;p )

ninebeanrows

Anyone for snow??

ninebeanrows

A very thrilling and exciting scenario developing
for Late Monday and into Tuesday as finally the
models decide to increase the intensity of
a cold blast. It all comes about when Ireland
is under the influence of a WNW airflow but
originating from a very very cold source over
Eastern Canada. A deep area of Low Pressure south of
Iceland will dig in very very cold air and a very unsettled
spell of weather. Precipitation is likely across Ireland with
the strong possibility of a Active Cold front moving east
later on Monday night and into Tuesday morning. By this stage
the cold will already be dug into Ireland and a period of heavy
snow is possible right across the country driven on by
a bitter and gale force North Westerly Wind.

Western areas are most a risk of possible Blizzard conditions
and drifting snow for a period from Monday Evening to
Tuesday Evening.

By Tuesday night though things will have gotten milder and any lying
snow will have disappeared by Wednesday Morning.

Warning Monday 1800 - Tuesday 1500
Heavy Snow showers and gales or severe gales will spread from
west to east during Monday evening. There is a risk of distruption
due to snow and gales in all areas in Ireland. Accumalations of
10-15cm's of snow in the North and West are likely with drifting.
The added hazard of gale force winds with gusts to 70mph will
bring the risk of Blizzards. Even Eastern areas can expect
some Blizzard conditions through Monday Night.
Higher routes will be worst affected with road closures likely/

Percentage Possibility of Distrupion:
Ulster : 50%
Connacht : 60%
Leinster : 40%
Munster : 30%

Cold Air and Fronts Moving through Ireland at Midnight on Monday

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgme601.gif

billy the squid

you should realy include a warning to dial up users if your going to include charts.

oh on a side note, and i dont mean to sound, bitchy or anything, but would a link be better than putting up the chart like that given copywrite issues and the like.

Temporally closing this thread rather than merging it with the winter forecast thread.
Specefic instructions were given to weathercheck to keep all forecasting discussion in the sticky thread and to only open a new thread 24 hrs before an event.
This is so as to keep the board tidy.

I will re-open this thread tomorrow evening.

I've also ammended the title so as not to scare the living daylights out of people or excite them too soon depending on their view.

It can be changed tomorrow to a wording of weatherchecks choosing.

Gonzo

the cold snap promised for the 21st - 23rd (next weekend) looks like its gonna miss ireland altogether judging by what I see on wetter3 temperature profiles, it looks like it develops north of ireland and slips down eastern england and then takes over most of europe east of france and makes its way down stretching from the polar regions down as far as central greece. It seems that high pressure will instead dominate ireland chasing the cold weather to the east of us. http://www2.wetter3.de/animation.html

the cold snap for monday/tuesday does look promising tho with strong blues over ireland for a 24 hour period.

ninebeanrows

Hi Gonzo them charts have little relevance to temperature
the fact is the colder spell from the 21st is going to be a dry
affair for most but should still provide a decent few nights
frost and a few snow flurries

I am getting very, very excited about Later on Monday
and into Tuesday

Its looking like it could be a big surprise snow event for alot
of people. Couple that with gales and things are gonna be
fun!! Even the east will have enough precipitation to keep
us Dubliner's happy.

Basically from Monday 18z Snow is possible across Ireland
as numerous troughs move across the country in a very
cold and unstable airmass, should be fun

I think in the west upto 15cm's is possible on Hills with a hell
of a lot of precipitation. I wouldnt be surprised if even
Dublin saw 2-4cm's of snow for a while
It will be very short but boy will it be sweet!

Snow Charts
Monday 18z http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/geturl/daten/profi/en/basis00.16012005/rart_05011718_1600.gif?38c209890cb33a6d7b4809a3b1fa9807

Tuesday 00z
http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/geturl/daten/profi/en/basis00.16012005/rart_05011800_1600.gif?f0fbc38fba3ec8827696d90cc3b9f280

Tuesday 06z
http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/geturl/daten/profi/en/basis00.16012005/rart_05011806_1600.gif?ddfe8f58c7789e19d4ceec32a4a54342

Need i say any more?

Blizzards Earthman, Blizzards

ninebeanrows

On second inspection Gonzo the 00z was a massive mild outlier
although the cold spell is now looking quite week and only
set to last around 60hrs anyway we have Monday
night to look forward to

Gonzo

if this does workout countrywide it will be quite a sight for sore eyes, pity its gonna be so short but if we do get 3 or 4 inchs over a 24 hour period it will be the most snow in most parts over past 10 years or more...

Scubadevils

cant believe I will miss this :mad:
maybe flights will be cancelled on Tuesday morning

ninebeanrows

Get your shovel get your wellies even Dublins going to see some
lates TAF for tonight goes for Snow SHowers and Gusts to 60mph :eek:

Blizzards folkd Blizzards

TEMPO 2106 26035G50KT 5000 -SHSN

Strasser

Met eireann don't seem to think there will be much snow in the East according to their severe weather warning issued this morning. Mind you they cover themselves well with the sentence "accumulations of 5 to 10 cm possible especially in Connaught and Ulster. " so where ever snow falls they can say we did say it was possible!

It will be tonight before it is cold enough for any significant snow.
Currently at 5 to 7 degree's thats way too warm(while it doesnt feel like it in the wind I know)

For a rule of thumb, remember that last Xmas just 3 weeks ago, RAIN was falling in Dublin when the temperature got above 2 degree's.


*warning to all* Post links to charts if you want but do not in future post any charts with img tags without the express permission of the copyright holder.
I will ask you to pm me a copy of any correspondence with copyright holders allowing the use of their work before I will allow them to be reproduced in image form here.

[This has been added to the charter and anyone disobeying this rule will receive a one week ban.]

ninebeanrows

Isnt it amazing how the MET always turn things from "a few wintry showers"
to a whole lot more

Severe weather Warning
Very strong Westerly winds will develop later tonight and early tomorrow, reaching average speeds of 30 to 45 mph (50 to 75 Km/hr), gusting 60 to 70 mph or more (95 to 110 Km/hr or more). Winds will slowly ease later Tuesday. Scattered snow showers will occur overnight and tomorrow, with accumulations of 5 to 10 cm possible especially in Connaught and Ulster. Very high seas in excess of 10 metres are expected also along Atlantic coasts, which could cause coastal flooding. Valid until 2100 hours Tuesday 18/1/05.

Looking very interesting indeed and i wont be going to sleep tonight

ninebeanrows

Look at all those showers to the west of Ireland

http://www.zamg.ac.at/dyn/pictures/sat.gif

billy the squid

Weathercheck wrote:

Look at all those showers to the west of Ireland

http://www.zamg.ac.at/dyn/pictures/sat.gif

yeah and its coming down as rain. if it does snow here it wont accumulate unless it freezes tonight.

ninebeanrows

The cold air hasnt i arrived yet it wont do until around 6pm

Gonzo

so far its much too mild here for any snow and theres a big lack of precipitation... whats the chances of it just getting clear and stary skies here tonight with a touch of frost?

Well surprise surprise.
Belmullet on the mayo coast is reporting snow showers as is knock airport further inland at 650ft asl

Just to add by way of an edit, Air temps in parts of the north west at 3pm were down to nearly zero according to the NRA and ar in the range of 1-3 degree's generally there now.

Further south Ennis reported 5.2 whilst Macroom in Co Cork reported 7c

Warmer still here in the East at 7.5c on the Arklow bypass

Tallaght on the other hand is now at 3.6c still not cold enough, but getting there.I'd like to know where exactly that NRA site is on the Tallaght by pass as it consistently reports cooler temps.

Still a 4 degree temp difference between the south east and south now and Dublin. Cold air is digging from north to south allright

ninebeanrows

I wouldnt expect to see snow in Dublin till around 7-8pm and
in my eyes precipitation will be plentiful enjoy

CrowdedHouse

Snowing in Roscrea at the moment.......no accumulation

Hope it clears.....possibility of an Aurora
www.spaceweather.com

Occidental

Layer of Snow in Mullingar, with slush building on roads. A night for staying in, me thinks.

Snowing heavily here just west of Arklow now too

ninebeanrows

How much is on the ground in Mullingar?? 2-3cm's?

Very interesting indeed with the cold air yet to clear the
east coast It looks like from now until 9-12am tomorrow
things could be very interesting with plenty of snow showers
piling into the Northwest

ninebeanrows

Stealing my snow! even you Earthman i thought more :mad:
Enjoy it and stay safe and hopefully Mr Weathercheck here
will see at least something

ninebeanrows

mocking me Earthman mocking me :mad:
I'll get you Earthman, I'll get you one day....

Gonzo

absolutely nothing here in meath:( rained about an hour ago now a clear starry night and totally calm

Drapper

Snow here in Galway !!! Very Heavy !!!

D

Strasser

Only slight sleet and wet ground here in West Wicklow

Ba_barbaraAnne

Snowing on Croagh Patrick, but only hail at sea level :-(

ninebeanrows

Sleet here now Sleet!!! Argg although alot mores coming and
it'll soon be snow i believe

Scubadevils

yeah, still in work and just had some sleet in the Finglas area.

Bah

Drapper wrote:

Snow here in Galway !!! Very Heavy !!!

D

Totally calm/snow free in Galway city though....

Ba_barbaraAnne

Gale blowing across Clew Bay - Freezing cold!

ninebeanrows

Theres the latest Radar lots of showers moving west to east
but moving slightly more south if you get me a northerly tinge
to the wind (only a slight tinge though)

http://www.metoffice.com/weather/europe/uk/radar/index.html

ninebeanrows

Just to let you know I'll be off to the MET next week for
work experience, hopefully they wont feed us dribble
And i'll bring back all the info i can get on the possible
Easterly Blast in Feb unless of course they get us
using rain gauges and thermometers :rolleyes:

jd

Weathercheck wrote:

Just to let you know I'll be off to the MET next week for
work experience, hopefully they wont feed us dribble

maybe they'll put DapperGent in charge of you...;)

ninebeanrows

He's in the Met office is he?? What part?

Cheers

Scubadevils

light snow now in finglas, better leave the office soon!

ninebeanrows

I'll have to term what i saw as sleet im afraid but certainly
getting towards snow

Shouldnt be long before those 2.5 temperatures becomes 1.5's
and then were talking

Scubadevils

may well have been sleet here too, just looked out the window, clear now again though

A Dub in Glasgo

Snowing here for about 30 minutes now

Scubadevils

nice covering for 30 minutes!

jd

Weathercheck wrote:

He's in the Met office is he?? What part?

Cheers

He'll probably pull a sicky next week, hehe!!

Weathercheck

Weathercheck wrote:

He's in the Met office is he?? What part?

Cheers

See'ing as jd has let the cat out of the bag...
Dapper is a forecaster working with the met in Glasnevin
So mind how ya go weathercheck

ninebeanrows

What is his real name and i cant get that link Earthman

Snowing heavily outside again
Not sticking though

Gonzo

still nothing here in meath, just frosty and cold, not a breeze, not a cloud in the sky. my snowhopes are fading away very fast.

Gonzo

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/ukrainfall_06.shtml

latest precipitation chart showing most of ireland covered in snow showers but the east coast is completely clear skys from north to south... seems the showers are dying out as soon as they leave the east midland regions. maybe a miracle will happen later on in the night and the showers will make it across

ninebeanrows

Good Gonzo when the snow comes it will stick then i have faith mate
it will come give it till 6am and then freak out

Gonzo

Gonzo wrote:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/ukrainfall_06.shtml

latest precipitation chart showing most of ireland covered in snow showers but the east coast is completely clear skys from north to south... seems the showers are dying out as soon as they leave the east midland regions. maybe a miracle will happen later on in the night and the showers will make it across

Well they've made there way over to this part of the East coast,ie inland parts of south wicklow and north wexford.
Theres a good bit of lying snow now on higher ground about 3 miles from here

ninebeanrows

Off course they'll loose steam but i wouldnt be surprised if
you walk up to 2-3cm's of snow Gonzo for me i'll
probably get nothing lying but a few showers