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Folding AA preflop!

  • 21-12-2004 9:48am
    #1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,364 ✭✭✭


    Ok, hear me out here, it may seem a little crazy at first but maybe it isn't always black and white. I can imagine tv comentators chastising a player for doing it but perhaps it would be the best move ever.

    Would you (or have you) ever fold AA preflop. Or ever heard of it happening?

    Say for instance you are in a big tourny with the following payout
    1st: 100 000
    2nd: 85 000
    3rd: 75 000
    4th: 60 000
    5th: 50 000
    6th: 40 000

    and there are 7 of you at the final table. You are the shortstack in the BB. UTG, the chip leader goes all in and gets 3 callers.

    Would it not be most sensible to fold. What if there were 4 or 5 or 6 callers (hyperthetically speaking ! :)


«1

Comments

  • Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 32,387 Mod ✭✭✭✭DeVore


    If you do a search for this you'll find we've talked this one to death. I think the answer was basically "any more then twop people already all in and I'd drop aces". At least, thats my answer and I think it was the general consensus too.

    DeV.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 9,035 Mod ✭✭✭✭mewso


    Yes it's been discussed here before. This is one of the few circumstances where it is correct to fold AA imo.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 9,035 Mod ✭✭✭✭mewso


    Hey found the old discussion. This thread may also have been the first time the idea of suited aces came into peoples heads i.e. Pudding recalling that my question was to do with, I quote, "KK (off suit I think)".

    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=147465


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,364 ✭✭✭Mr. Flibble


    Ah, cheers. To death ain't wrong!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,835 ✭✭✭karlh


    and there was an article knocking around where a guy chronicled his quest to fold AA preflop just to see how it felt.

    every time he saw them, he'd get carried away, forget his mission and raised.

    it made me feel like a poker perv even reading it but twas funny!


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,666 ✭✭✭Imposter


    It's on pokerpages.com
    Can't look at it now cause work have deemed it unsuitable (the cheek)!
    It's the first guy that writes the articles. The article is called something like "the worst mistake in poker" or something.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,696 ✭✭✭Hectorjelly


    Id love to hear from people as to why they would fold AA here. Numbers please!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,696 ✭✭✭Hectorjelly


    DeVore wrote:
    If you do a search for this you'll find we've talked this one to death. I think the answer was basically "any more then twop people already all in and I'd drop aces". At least, thats my answer and I think it was the general consensus too.

    DeV.


    Have you ever folded AA preflop? Would you really fold AA if two people went all in before you? You know your probably a 70% favourite to treble up?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,835 ✭✭✭karlh


    well you can go up against 4 people and hope your aces hold up and make you chip leader (which they probably wont....considering the hands people will be calling with)....against sitting the hand out and potentially having 3 people knocked out, bumping you up 3 spots in the prize pool, giving you another shot at doubling through afterwards.

    With 4 players and you, you can safely presume your hand is not going too improve to much.

    Even if you are told preflop that it will take you even 2 place further in the money they would be worth tossing IMO.....actually managing to do it in a real game situation is another matter :p


  • Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 32,387 Mod ✭✭✭✭DeVore


    Unless those 4 hands come down AK, AQ, KQ, KQ (which I doubt they will!),
    My AA is more likely to lose then win. I dont care that I'm ahead of any one hand, I care that I win and continue on in the tournie.
    Find me 4 hands they could reasonably have that still leave me favoured to win the hand and I'll call. I'll take even a 40% chance of winning.

    Kiss the cards and wave bye bye to them, this is one situation when you should put them away imho.

    DeV.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,881 ✭✭✭bohsman


    Again as HJ asked Tom, Have you ever? I only would in the traditional last three of the tourny where youve one chip left and the 2 chip leaders go in against each other


  • Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 32,387 Mod ✭✭✭✭DeVore


    Have you ever folded AA preflop? Would you really fold AA if two people went all in before you? You know your probably a 70% favourite to treble up?
    I said "more then 2 people".

    DeV.


  • Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 32,387 Mod ✭✭✭✭DeVore


    I've folded Kings once, I've never been in the situation where I would fold aces but to be honest, yeah I would. Its just another hand in the end of the day and with that much action preflop (ie: 3 or more people all in) its not that great. No preflop hand is!

    DeV.


  • Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 32,387 Mod ✭✭✭✭DeVore


    Read the question again guys. There are 4, count them 4 people all in before you. You will make it 5. I dont have a multi-way odds calculator but I know that AA sinks to near or below 50/50 when its facing 3 opponents. Against 4 its under water for sure. Given that you will benefit FOR CERTAIN when this hand is over, probably going up a notch or two with at least one player crippled... I'd take that as a good result for AA and toss them.

    DeV.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,696 ✭✭✭Hectorjelly


    DeVore wrote:
    Read the question again guys. There are 4, count them 4 people all in before you. You will make it 5. I dont have a multi-way odds calculator but I know that AA sinks to near or below 50/50 when its facing 3 opponents. Against 4 its under water for sure. Given that you will benefit FOR CERTAIN when this hand is over, probably going up a notch or two with at least one player crippled... I'd take that as a good result for AA and toss them.

    DeV.

    A 50 50 when you get to quadruple your chips is usually a good bet. Now in this paticular instance folding might be right because of the unusual payout structure, but nobody has mentioned that. This is a maths question, pure and simple.


  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 4,668 Mod ✭✭✭✭Hyzepher


    tbh - this is a unrealistic situation. In most cases the 3rd & 4th caller would have folded regardless for the same reasons most of you guys are advocating folding AA.

    In the cold light of day you should fold in this situation. In reality I would call - in fact I would have them in so fast the chips would be glowing. Dev talks about the Evil Hand and I think most people would have a serious problem folding AA even if they knew it was the right thing to do.

    Hyzepher


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,696 ✭✭✭Hectorjelly


    DeVore wrote:
    I said "more then 2 people".

    DeV.

    Apologies, have you ever folded it to more than two all ins then? Ive been in that situation a few times.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,696 ✭✭✭Hectorjelly


    DeVore wrote:
    Unless those 4 hands come down AK, AQ, KQ, KQ (which I doubt they will!),
    My AA is more likely to lose then win. I dont care that I'm ahead of any one hand, I care that I win and continue on in the tournie.
    Find me 4 hands they could reasonably have that still leave me favoured to win the hand and I'll call. I'll take even a 40% chance of winning.

    Kiss the cards and wave bye bye to them, this is one situation when you should put them away imho.

    DeV.

    The only hands that are Really Really great preflop are pairs. They kick ass! Now if we agree on a few things we can see how great pairs are.

    Player 1 is moving in on any broadway cards, or any Pair
    Player 2 realises this and is moving in on any pair 88 or higher, AK or AQ
    Player 3 Moves in on AA - TT, or AK
    Player 4 Moves in on AA - QQ, or AK
    Player 5 (us) has AA

    Using poker stove which will calculate the equity of ranges of hands, i get these results:

    Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

    53,377,715,663 games 256.453 secs 208,138,394 games/sec

    Board:
    Dead:

    equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

    Hand 1: 13.8942 % [ 00.14 00.00 ] { AA-22, AKs-ATs, KQs-KTs, QJs-QTs, JTs, AKo-ATo, KQo-KTo, QJo-QTo, JTo }
    Hand 2: 11.8489 % [ 00.11 00.00 ] { AA-88, AKs-AQs, AKo-AQo }
    Hand 3: 10.0589 % [ 00.09 00.01 ] { AA-TT, AKs, AKo }
    Hand 4: 11.3473 % [ 00.10 00.01 ] { AA-QQ, AKs, AKo }
    Hand 5: 52.8507 % [ 00.51 00.02 ] { AA }


    ---


    so against this range of hands you will win 1/2 of the time. And when you do win you will end up with 5 times more chips than when you started! This is a much greater + EV situation than just calling all in with AA vs KK

    Say you have 1,000 chips. Would you prefer a

    80% chance of doubling up
    50% chance of 5 timing up

    The actual ev of each is

    80% of 2000: 1600
    50% of 5000: 2500

    So folding here would normally be a worse move than folding AA to a single all in, so normally folding AA to multiple all ins (from memory I think the EV peaks around 8 players) is a VERY big mistake. Now, in the situation described a its not so clear cut. Because depending on stack sizes (which werent given) we are sure to move up a certain amount of places anyway, we would have to work out what the $EV is as opposed to the CEV.

    So to sum up, its a maths question; and we dont have all the inflo neccesssary. But folding AA to multiple all ins is usually a mistake.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,364 ✭✭✭Mr. Flibble


    HJ, you are the shortstack in this sceanrio. So if anyone beats you you are out with no cash...


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,638 ✭✭✭Iago


    Can't fold AA..the question is do you want to win the tournament and take the hefty first prize or limp in to finish amongst the also rans??

    If you have any intention of winning the tournament you have to call this hand, if you win you're in an excellent position, if you lose you get a reasonable placing and a good bad beat story to tell :)

    If you don't call then you're realistically not going to finish first and if the big stack doesn't win then you could still go out only one place better off...

    also need to establish how much more it is to you after your BB, and allowing for the fact that you'll be SB next hand either way..

    All-In


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 9,035 Mod ✭✭✭✭mewso


    If you wish to make it a purely maths question then you must take the prize money for each placing into account.

    1. If you fold and the big stack knocks out the other 3 you go up 3 places, guaranteed 4th place.
    2. If you fold and say 2 players are eliminated then you go up 2 places, guaranted 5th place.
    3. If you call and lose you go out in 7th place.
    4. If you win the hand you will not knock out any of the other players so you get more variables:-
    a. the big stack takes out the other 3 so are now guaranteed 4th place and your stack is bigger.
    b. 2 get knocked out and you are now guaranteed 5th place.
    yada yada.

    1. - 100% chance at getting a larger cash prize.
    2. - 100% chance at getting a larger cash prize
    3. - 100% chance of finishing 7th (no change)
    4. - 50% chance of having a bigger stack but no certainty of guaranteed placing..............

    O.k. now I've given up on the maths after about line2 or 3. I think a fold is a valid action. We keep coming back to this time and time again. Maths is the definitive answer if we have 7 robots with the same stack size, the same skill and the same etc. Take the cash into consideration I say. If you want the bracelet then call maths or no maths.


  • Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 32,387 Mod ✭✭✭✭DeVore


    Iago wrote:
    Can't fold AA..the question is do you want to win the tournament and take the hefty first prize or limp in to finish amongst the also rans??

    If you have any intention of winning the tournament you have to call this hand, if you win you're in an excellent position, if you lose you get a reasonable placing and a good bad beat story to tell :)

    If you don't call then you're realistically not going to finish first and if the big stack doesn't win then you could still go out only one place better off...

    also need to establish how much more it is to you after your BB, and allowing for the fact that you'll be SB next hand either way..

    All-In
    Iago, would you call if there were 7 callers/Alin's before you?

    DeV.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 9,035 Mod ✭✭✭✭mewso


    Iago wrote:
    If you have any intention of winning the tournament you have to call this hand, if you win you're in an excellent position, if you lose you get a reasonable placing and a good bad beat story to tell :)

    Can't wait to tell that bad beat. "I called with pocket As after 4 players had gone all-in and you'll never believe it...", "I'm gonna stop you there mate I can guess the rest. I've heard better bad beat stories from Dev ffs!"


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,638 ✭✭✭Iago


    musician wrote:
    Can't wait to tell that bad beat. "I called with pocket As after 4 players had gone all-in and you'll never believe it...", "I'm gonna stop you there mate I can guess the rest. I've heard better bad beat stories from Dev ffs!"


    Ok so maybe Bad Beat was a little optimistic, but seriously though you have to be thinking about calling here if you want to win.

    If you just want to finish in the money and are happy to settle for 4th or 5th then fair enough.

    DeV, if everyone called (which is a little unlikely to say the least) then I don't know. What could they have, at most there's 2 others holding Ax, that leaves 5 players take KK and QQ out of the equation and you still have 1..

    would a player on a final table call these all-ins with JJ or worse? Would anyone call these all-ins with QQ or even KK if they were 3rd or 4th to act?

    Potentially you're looking at 2nd place here, but would the big stack win? UTG all-in on the final table, I'm betting he's got a mid PP or something similar and wants 1 caller at the most. I don't think he's winning this hand whether I call or not...


  • Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 32,387 Mod ✭✭✭✭DeVore


    My point is that there is a number of players (clearly more then 4) after which you would consider putting down aces because of the low chance they have to winning and you continuing on in the tournie. So the difference between you and I is just a matter of degrees rather then a difference of kind. We both agree that you should consider folding AA preflop we just differ on how many callers there would have to be ahead of us... or are you saying regardless of what they have, you'd call All In in the big blind if every player at the table went all In ahead of you?

    DeV.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,696 ✭✭✭Hectorjelly


    HJ, you are the shortstack in this sceanrio. So if anyone beats you you are out with no cash...

    What are the stack sizes of the others? How short a stack you are matters a lot.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,696 ✭✭✭Hectorjelly


    DeVore wrote:
    My point is that there is a number of players (clearly more then 4) after which you would consider putting down aces because of the low chance they have to winning and you continuing on in the tournie. So the difference between you and I is just a matter of degrees rather then a difference of kind. We both agree that you should consider folding AA preflop we just differ on how many callers there would have to be ahead of us... or are you saying regardless of what they have, you'd call All In in the big blind if every player at the table went all In ahead of you?

    DeV.

    1st hand of the WSOP, everyone at the table goes all in. Id still call. Now if I could pick, I would just have 8 of them go in; because the EV is slightly better, but a fold is still a 100% hot diggigidy dog joe montana royal banana split mistake. The only reason to fold is if you are in (or close to) the money and then $EV considerations have to be taken into account (you should usually still call).

    The reason you call is thus: Even the best player in the world is less likely to get to 9 times his starting chips by normal play than anyone is by making this call. This isnt like passing a 60/40 edge where the answers close, this isnt close. Call.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,696 ✭✭✭Hectorjelly


    musician wrote:
    O.k. now I've given up on the maths after about line2 or 3. I think a fold is a valid action. We keep coming back to this time and time again. Maths is the definitive answer if we have 7 robots with the same stack size, the same skill and the same etc. Take the cash into consideration I say. If you want the bracelet then call maths or no maths.

    I dont want to make this a maths problem, it is a maths problem. You can include in your calculation whatever edge you might feel you have over the other players, there are ways to do that using maths. The point is that the equity you give up by folding a such a heavy favourite is more than the edge a good player has over a bad player, especially at this stage of a tournament where the blinds tend to be big and most action is either fold or all in.

    Also most people tend to greatly overestimate how good they are, so perhaps leaving it out of calculations isnt such a bad thing.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,696 ✭✭✭Hectorjelly


    The actual ev of each is

    80% of 2000: 1600
    50% of 5000: 2500

    The actual ev is the result - the orginal stack, so 600 and 1500 respectivelty.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,638 ✭✭✭Iago


    DeVore wrote:
    My point is that there is a number of players (clearly more then 4) after which you would consider putting down aces because of the low chance they have to winning and you continuing on in the tournie. So the difference between you and I is just a matter of degrees rather then a difference of kind. We both agree that you should consider folding AA preflop we just differ on how many callers there would have to be ahead of us... or are you saying regardless of what they have, you'd call All In in the big blind if every player at the table went all In ahead of you?

    DeV.

    Would I consider folding in this situation, yes I would consider it. Would I call or fold if everybody on the table in front of me was all-in, I was the short stack and one of us wasn't getting paid, that would depend on a number of factors..

    1. How small is my stack, individually and measured against the rest?
    2. What % of my stack just went on the BB and what % will be going on the SB next hand?
    3. Based on my knowledges of the players at the table what are the two biggest stacks holding? (Again this comes back to the fact that I don't think the UTG Big Stack has a great hand)


    With everyone all-in before me I think I would fold in this situation, it's too good an opportunity to make the money to throw away because AA looks pretty. This might also be true if only 4-5 players have gone all-in before me, although I'm more likely to call then. Again you have to ask yourself, am I hanging in here for the places or do I want to win this tournament.

    With everyone all-in before you, you're unlikely to improve your hand (both A's are probably out already) but then you don't need to improve, the rest do.

    As Hector said though, first hand in a tournament I'm calling every time


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 204 ✭✭Rodge


    If you were to try and analyse each action before it got to you?

    You are the first to act after reraise. What hand would you consider to be worth an all in raise? AA KK QQ, JJ? How many players would risk it with AKs or someother Ax?

    Anyway second to call, it has been raised and reraised all in before it gets to you. What would you call all in with? AA KK QQ? It would have to be a monster or you would just leave the other two at it. But you call anyway.

    Third to call, now by this stage there has been raise, reraise all in, call. If I was in this position in the WSOP I would only consider a call with AA, but you call anyway.

    If this scenario did arrive, you would have to think that the last caller before you has the real monster hand, 1st all in could be anything from AKs to 99. 2nd probably a pp, JJ or higher.

    I would put the first all in on AKs, 2nd on QQ, 3rd on KK and me on AA. I'd put the house on a flop of 367 or some similar rags.

    ALL IN has to be the only option.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 9,035 Mod ✭✭✭✭mewso


    I dont want to make this a maths problem, it is a maths problem. You can include in your calculation whatever edge you might feel you have over the other players, there are ways to do that using maths. The point is that the equity you give up by folding a such a heavy favourite is more than the edge a good player has over a bad player, especially at this stage of a tournament where the blinds tend to be big and most action is either fold or all in.

    Also most people tend to greatly overestimate how good they are, so perhaps leaving it out of calculations isnt such a bad thing.

    Hmmm. At no point did I suggest .. oh look scrub that just point me to my post where it says you should fold because you are a better player. Also point me to where I said it wasn't a maths problem. What I was saying was that if you are analysing the maths it's a more complcated maths problem if you are willing to include the prize money in the equation. I need to be clearer in my own mind before I type anything I suppose.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,696 ✭✭✭Hectorjelly


    musician wrote:
    Hmmm. At no point did I suggest .. oh look scrub that just point me to my post where it says you should fold because you are a better player. Also point me to where I said it wasn't a maths problem. What I was saying was that if you are analysing the maths it's a more complcated maths problem if you are willing to include the prize money in the equation. I need to be clearer in my own mind before I type anything I suppose.

    Yeah, you have to include the prize money.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,476 ✭✭✭Samba


    Just can't do it.....physically. It's risky in that situation but Hector is right for the pot you are going to take down if they hold, well worth the call.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,199 ✭✭✭krattapopov


    in the situation presented i'd fold no shadow of a doubt, get up into those money poitions then play like and agressive fcuk for the rest of the game


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,806 ✭✭✭Lafortezza


    To me what it really depends on is how much of a shortstack you are.

    If you are 15+ times the BB then I might dump it.
    Say 3 players all-in ahead of you, P1 has J10s, P2 has AKs, P3 is gambling on QQ.
    3 pretty good hands to beat you, their collective outs probably make you a dog but I'm not mathematically inclined when it comes to poker so I'll let someone else figure it out.

    What I think alot of people might be missing is that if you still have a reasonable stack (even though you're small stack at the table), if you fold AA in this situation it doesn't mean you've given up hope of finishing further up the prize money. depending on relative stack sizes and the blind structure there still may be plenty of play left to win. Especially if you think you're a better player.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 799 ✭✭✭dirkey_wynne


    musician wrote:
    I've heard better bad beat stories from Dev ffs!"
    Now muso, there's no need to exaggerate.


  • Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 32,387 Mod ✭✭✭✭DeVore


    Now muso, there's no need to exaggerate.
    Dirkey. Two words. Ace, Queen. :p

    DeV.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,897 ✭✭✭BigDragon


    DeVore wrote:
    Dirkey. Two words. Ace, Queen. :p

    DeV.

    Witness for the defence. I have seen dirkey fold AQ. Honestly I have. :)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,897 ✭✭✭BigDragon


    On the matter of the maths...from someone still trying to get to grips with basic stuff I'm gonna play the people in this situation and I think most people will.

    Live - (depending on people acting before me) ..........All-In
    Online - Probably Fold

    Now ask me this question again in 6/12 months and I'm pretty sure I'll give a different answer.


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  • Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 32,387 Mod ✭✭✭✭DeVore


    [url]http://twodimes.net/h/?z=673879[/url]
    pokenum  -h as ac  - 9d td  - ah kh  - 4s 4c 
    Holdem Hi: 1086008 enumerated boards
    cards     win   %win    lose  %lose   tie  %tie     EV
    As Ac  529345  48.74  548216  50.48  8447  0.78  0.491
    Td 9d  248706  22.90  835483  76.93  1819  0.17  0.229
    Ah Kh  125876  11.59  951685  87.63  8447  0.78  0.119
    4s 4c  173634  15.99  910555  83.84  1819  0.17  0.160
    

    Ok, here are just 3 opponents to AA and you are less then favourite to win the hand, admittedly its going to triple you through if you do win but its certainly no better then a coin flip. This is why at 3 or more opponents I start to consider folding as I said at the start.
    http://twodimes.net/h/?z=673885
    pokenum  -h as ac  - 9d td  - ah kh  - 4s 4c  - ad qd  - 7s 8s 
    Holdem Hi: 658008 enumerated boards
    cards     win   %win    lose  %lose   tie  %tie     EV
    As Ac  199344  30.30  453942  68.99  4722  0.72  0.305
    Td 9d   81817  12.43  575945  87.53   246  0.04  0.124
    Ah Kh   89505  13.60  563781  85.68  4722  0.72  0.138
    4s 4c  108396  16.47  549366  83.49   246  0.04  0.165
    Ad Qd   61685   9.37  591601  89.91  4722  0.72  0.096
    8s 7s  112539  17.10  545223  82.86   246  0.04  0.171
    

    At 5 opponents you will win 30% of the time. Ok, I selected these opponents specifically to perform well against AA but in the interest of fairness I ran it again with all the top pairs and an AK, chosing suits that suited the AA. Its still only 38%
    http://twodimes.net/h/?z=673902
    pokenum  -h as ac  - kc kh  - qc qh  - ad kd  - js jh  - tc td 
    Holdem Hi: 658008 enumerated boards
    cards     win   %win    lose  %lose   tie  %tie     EV
    As Ac  252511  38.38  396634  60.28  8863  1.35  0.389
    Kc Kh   69588  10.58  585311  88.95  3109  0.47  0.107
    Qc Qh  106705  16.22  548434  83.35  2869  0.44  0.163
    Ad Kd   44245   6.72  604660  91.89  9103  1.38  0.073
    Js Jh   92363  14.04  562776  85.53  2869  0.44  0.141
    Tc Td   83493  12.69  571646  86.88  2869  0.44  0.128
    

    Interestingly if you replace just one pair with suited connectors the % chance of the Aces holding up plummets again.

    Now, its not like I go around folding aces every time I get them but I can certainly conceive of a situation where I would.

    DeV.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 799 ✭✭✭dirkey_wynne


    BigDragon wrote:
    Witness for the defence. I have seen dirkey fold AQ. Honestly I have. :)
    Thanks BigD. I'd give you points for that one but they don't seem to be available anymore!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,832 ✭✭✭Waylander


    I agree with Iago, if you are init to win the tournie, then I think you have to call. If you are looking for a high finish as opposed to a win then a fold might be the better option. Bear in mind that one player is going to have a monster stack after this hand and it is unlikely he will be hauled back in, and it is possible only one, or worst case scenario the next shortest stack could win, which leaves you further adrift, with no players out. I think I would have to call.


  • Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 32,387 Mod ✭✭✭✭DeVore


    I really seriously disagree. You can find better odds or better places to push then this. For a start there is no folding equity here at all.
    I think you will profit more from the free places and still be able to play aggresively. Use the opportunity to advertise and wait to double through on a lucky hand or two. I mean, if we're allowing ourselves the luck to win this hand, shouldnt those who say "dont play" be allowed to factor in some luck further down the road :)

    DeV.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,696 ✭✭✭Hectorjelly


    DeVore wrote:
    I really seriously disagree. You can find better odds or better places to push then this. For a start there is no folding equity here at all.
    I think you will profit more from the free places and still be able to play aggresively. Use the opportunity to advertise and wait to double through on a lucky hand or two. I mean, if we're allowing ourselves the luck to win this hand, shouldnt those who say "dont play" be allowed to factor in some luck further down the road :)


    DeV.

    No, seriously this is a great situation to be in, theres a few misconceptions:

    1) Allthough each extra player increases your chances of losing the hand, your EV (how much you win on average) increases with each player that calls. You want more callers, not less, there is no better place to call regarding odds. You cant find better odds because they dont exist, unless you forsee a time when you go all in with AA and are called by two of the same pair (QQ and QQ).

    2) You have picked hands that you dont want to up against you, its unlikely that all of the big pairs will be out and wont take away any of your outs, this is pretty much a worse case scenario (bar the whole table having suited connectors). A much better way to is to use poker stove which will calulate your equity against a range of hands.

    To prove why working it out against a range of hands is better, have a look at this:
    
    http://twodimes.net/h/?z=673991
    pokenum  -h ac as  - ah kd  - qc qs  - ad qh  - kc ks 
    Holdem Hi: 850668 enumerated boards
    cards     win   %win    lose  %lose    tie  %tie     EV
    As Ac  626962  73.70  211241  24.83  12465  1.47  0.741
    Kd Ah   16299   1.92  821904  96.62  12465  1.47  0.023
    Qs Qc   81127   9.54  757472  89.04  12069  1.42  0.101
    Ad Qh   16372   1.92  814583  95.76  19713  2.32  0.028
    Ks Kc   90195  10.60  755652  88.83   4821  0.57  0.107
    
    Which is a lot more likely than your scenario.

    Folding Equity is usually only mentioned when you might not have the best hand. In this case you want callers anyway so its immaterial.


    There is a case to be made for folding here, but nobody has made it.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,696 ✭✭✭Hectorjelly


    Im going to write up one more post on the subject, to try and tie up all the loose ends.

    Whats important here, but nobody has really mentioned; is the prize structure. Normally the payout structure is such that its very top heavy, so winning or placing in the top 3 should be your main priority. Usually 1st place would be more than 10 times 6th place. However in this situation 1st is only 2.5 times 6th place, so moving up the ranks isnt as important as normal. So a case could be made for folding, as depending on the exact stack sizes it might better in terms of $EV. In fact I think its pretty likely to be. This is because if you fold you are guaranteed $40,000, but if you call you have a 50% chance of 0 and a 50% chance of one of the other prizes. Using a very simplified method, the average payout at the final table is 68.3k; so you would need to win to end up with enough chips more than the average at the table to overcome the 6k difference between 50% of the avg pay out (its 34k) and the guarantted 40k.

    However, normally with a normal top heavy prize pool (or if your not in the money yet), you are litereally giving away money if you were to fold here. To be honest if you havent grasped that its a mistake to fold AA to x no of opponents then I dont think theres any thing I can say or do to persuade you. It doesnt matter how good you are, because nobody is that much better than people than they can fold such positive EV happenings, because there arent that many big + EV events around. Your EV on this event is bigger than getting someone all in on the flop if you have top set and they have a flush draw.


  • Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 32,387 Mod ✭✭✭✭DeVore


    Er, I had 5 opponents plus the aces. Whats *your* argument against calling here?

    I'm sticking to my guns and saying that there are times that calling 3+ opponents with AA would cause me to stop and consider laying it down.

    DeV.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,696 ✭✭✭Hectorjelly


    DeVore wrote:
    Er, I had 5 opponents plus the aces. Whats *your* argument against calling here?

    I'm sticking to my guns and saying that there are times that calling 3+ opponents with AA would cause me to stop and consider laying it down.

    DeV.

    Well if your far from the money then your making a bigger mistake than laying down AA to a single opponent.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,696 ✭✭✭Hectorjelly


    DeVore wrote:
    Er, I had 5 opponents plus the aces. Whats *your* argument against calling here?
    .

    look up one post!


  • Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 32,387 Mod ✭✭✭✭DeVore


    Yeah I posted after you did but started it before you. Damned job...

    DeV.


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