Boards weather forecast contest for November 2025

M.T. Cranium

With the first half of NOV in the books, PRC had reached just about the normal total for the month, so anything that falls from now on will add to 100% for the final result. Our highest PRC forecasts are 177% dacogawa, 161% Mr Stonewall, 160% tae laidir, 157% Gonzo, 155% Cornerstonelad, and 150% JPmarn. Any or some of these could be holding a hammer on the field if scoring requires minimum progression. Just a reminder, a hammer is awarded if any forecast scores within 2 of the max, so for PRC you would need to be within 7% to achieve that, and then the boosted scores are not boosted as high as otherwise, instead everyone gets an average of raw score and boosted progression score. But if a hammer is for a relatively low value this can wash out to have little effect, it would be more significant if dacogawa had it than any of the others listed. The lowest forecast was 90%.

Looks like Wednesday may be our day of reckoning for low max forecasts, here they are in order.

Gonzo _________________ 6.9

Mr Stonewall ____________ 6.6

Dasa29, Cornerstonelad ___ 6.5

____ current low max _____ 6.5

M.T. Cranium ____________ 6.4

Tae laidir _______________ 6.1

Kindred Spirit ___ (-1) ____ 6.0

Pauldry, Appledrop _______ 5.8

Dacogawa ______________ 5.5

__ Con Sensus ___________5.2

Esposito ________________5.2

Jpmarn _________________4.9

WolfeEire _______________ 4.8

__ NormaL ______________4.5

sunflower3 ______________4.2

john mac, Joe Public (-2) __ 3.9

Bsal, MrSkinner, Artane2002_3.8

waterways ______________3.7

DOCARCH ______________ 3.2

===============

If we have an outcome of 3.7 or lower, scoring can be finalized as nothing colder would affect the ranks. Expect the scores to range from 1 to 10 in pairs wherever possible. The 3.8 and 3.9 crews will definitely have a different score from the forecasts on either side of them, I have arranged the table to show the most likely distribution of similar scores. I think it's going to go lower than current value of 6.5, not too sure about all the way to 3.7 or lower, but quite possible given the full day in low thickness values and northerly flow predicted for Wednesday.

DOCARCH

Finally sub-zero. A couple of -1c's ou there this morning.

DOCARCH

Low of -2.0c at Markree Castle yesterday (17th).

Tae laidir

Markee Castle-2.0 yesterday.

Tae laidir

Markee Castle had a low of -2,0 on Monday.

DOCARCH

So good they said it thrice…😂

M.T. Cranium

Looks like 4.1 at Knock may be the low max, but Mountdillon has no report for the day (yet) so I will hold off on scoring the low max (provisional in any case, may as well wait for today's data which could be lower although I am not expecting that).

Also saw a low min of -2.1 which is marginally lower than reported already. Again, Mountdillon could have been lower.

John mac

max at knock today so far 3° (latest observations )

pauldry

Low will be minus 5 or 6 after tonight

M.T. Cranium

3.9 max at Knock according to meteociel, agree that a lower min is coming (nothing lower than -2.1 is shown for this morning's earlier mins, but not all stations are shown on meteociel map). In any case, a few locations will record a daily min for today lower than this morning, then lower still for Friday 21st.

DOCARCH

Yip. Max of 3.9c at Knock yesterday (20th), and, min of -3.0 at Athenry yesterday.

Min will surpassed today (see a couple of -4c's out there).