Boards weather forecast contest May 2025

DOCARCH

-0.9c at Mount Dillon yesterday (06th).

M.T. Cranium

After one week …

IMT _ 10.6 (0.3 above normal)

MAX _ 23.2

MIN _ -0.9

PRC _ 0.4% (Malin head 3%, Ballyaise 1%, rest of grid 0%)

SUN _ 198% (Valentia 244% avg 13.8 hours a day)

max 24h rain _ file awaits action

WolfeEire

Shannon Airport reached 24.6c today.

DOCARCH

High of 24.8c at Newport yesterday (13th).

M.T. Cranium

After two weeks …

IMT _ 11.8 (1.2 above normal) _ second week average 12.9 (2.0 above normal)

MAX _ 24.8

MIN _ -0.9

PRC _ 13% (second week average 26%)

SUN _ 191% (second week average 181%)

max 24h rain _ file still awaits action

M.T. Cranium

All of our SUN forecasts are 101-130% (Joe Public at 130%) and we are already guaranteed 120%, even at 50% 19th to end gives 137%, and 100% gives 157%.

Lowest PRC forecast is 48% (waterways) — close to guidance at present.

Tae laidir

Casement 19.3mm yesterday.

M.T. Cranium

After three weeks …

IMT _ 12.3 (1.5 above normal) _ third week average 13.3 (1.9 above normal)

MAX _ 24.8

MIN _ -0.9

PRC _ 17% (third week average 24%) _ PRC is 12% of May average (17% of 1st-21st)

SUN _ 195% (third week average 203%) _ SUN will end at 145% even if average 22nd-31st is 50%

max 24h rain _ 19.3 mm

_______________________________

pauldry

Newport setting a wet bonus figure today. It's at 22mm so far . Let's see where it ends at.

M.T. Cranium

After four weeks …

IMT _ 12.4 (1.3 above normal) _ fourth week average 12.7 (0.7 above normal) _ may finish around 12.6

MAX _ 24.8 _ likely to be set now

MIN _ -0.9 _ almost certain this is final now

PRC _ 61% (fourth week average 204%) _ PRC will be 55% plus rain 29th-31st (55% was guaranteed as today began)

SUN _ 164% (fourth week average 78%) _ SUN will end at 150% plus any 29th-31st

max 24h rain _ was 19.3 mm to 28th, Newport close today (Pauldry's total may be 3.6 mm higher than Newport has so far because reporting period is 01h to 01h (00z to 00z), so dropping 3.6 mm noted for first hour that is probably in yesterday's total … but still time to pick up more.

In any case, scoring for bonus is likely to run similar to predictions in reverse order unless a station manages more than 20 mm in what remains of the month. Third lowest forecast is 23.6 mm.

Will post preliminary scoring on Sunday 1st and confirm it on Wednesday 4th (due to bank holiday delaying appearance of MS to that time) … will post a June contest thread soon.

M.T. Cranium

IMT 12.7, MAX 24.8, MIN -0.9, PRC 66%, SUN 160%, max 24h 19.3 mm.

Will post some preliminary scores based on these estimates and confirm on 4th.

M.T. Cranium

__ Preliminary scoring for May 2025 __

FORECASTER ______ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN_24h rain__TOTAL

MrSkinner ____________22 _ 07 _ 00 _ 14 _ 05 __ 04______52

Artane2002 __ (-3) __ 24 _ 00 _ 18 _ 13 _ 07 __ 10___72-3=69

Kindred Spirit _______24 _ 03 _ 01 _ 05 _ 07 __ 06______46

Esposito ____________ 23 _ 05 _ 08 _ 02 _ 06 __ 07______51

Gonzo __ (-1) _______ 22 _ 17 _ 00 _ 09 _ 06 __ 08___62-1=61

waterways ___________ 21 _ 09 _ 17 _ 09 _ 06 __ 09______71

Joe Public __________ 20 _ 06 _ 15 _ 07 _ 09 __ 05______62

sunflower3 __________ 19 _ 13 _ 06 _ 04 _ 05 __ 08______55

john mac ____________ 19 _ 13 _ 08 _ 01 _ 03 __ 04______48

Appledrop ___________ 17 _ 17 _ 14 _ 00 _ 04 __ 05______57

Cornerstonelad ______ 17 _ 13 _ 19 _ 00 _ 06 __03_____58

__ Con Sensus ________17 _ 13 _ 15 _ 05 _ 06 __ 07______63

Tae laidir ___________16 _ 13 _ 01 _ 11 _ 07 __ 08______56

WolfeEire ____________16 _ 10 _ 18 _ 06 _ 07 __ 09______66

MrStonewall __________15 _ 07 _ 19 _ 05 _ 04 __ 07______57

Dacogawa _____________15 _ 08 _ 20 _ 08 _ 05 __ 05______61

DOCARCH ______________14 _ 20 _ 17 _ 07 _ 06 __ 10______74

Dasa29 _______________13 _ 03 _ 19 _ 01 _ 07 __ 04______47

Adam240610 ___________13 _ 13 _ 11 _ 05 _ 04 __ 06______52

JPmarn _______________13 _ 13 _ 19 _ 09 _ 08 __08____70

M.T. Cranium ________ 11 _ 12 _ 16 _ 00 _ 04 __ 07______50

200motels (-2) ______ 10 _ 00 _ 07 _ 01 _ 03 __ 10___31-2=29

Pauldry _____________ 10 _ 05 _ 10 _ 00 _ 03 __ 03______31

__ NormaL _________ 08 _ 07 _ 11 _ 04 _ 03 __ 06______39

Note:_SUN_scores_are_calculated_from_135%_(Min.progression)

Bonus scores 3-10

(Actual forecasts)

MrSkinner ___________13.0 _ 26.1 _ 1.1 _ 064 _ 111 __ 45.0

Artane2002 __ (-3) __12.8 _ 27.2 _-1.1 _ 060 _ 120 __ 15.2

Kindred Spirit ______12.6 _ 26.5 _ 1.0 _ 095 _ 118 __ 39.0

Esposito ____________12.5 _ 26.3 _ 0.3 _ 105 _ 115 __ 34.4

Gonzo __ (-1) _______12.4 _ 25.1 _ 1.7 _ 085 _ 115 __ 32.6

waterways ___________12.3 _ 25.9 _-1.2 _ 048 _ 116 __ 27.9

Joe Public _________ 12.2 _ 26.2 _-1.4 _ 090 _ 130 __ 43.6

sunflower3 _________ 12.1 _ 25.5 _ 0.5 _ 099 _ 110 __ 31.5

john mac ___________ 12.1 _ 25.5 _ 0.3 _ 110 _ 102 __ 45.2

Appledrop __________ 11.9 _ 25.1 _-0.3 _ 122 _ 103 __ 44.0

Cornerstonelad ______11.9 _ 24.1 _-1.0 _ 125 _ 115 __ 50.0

__ Con Sensus _______11.9 _ 25.5 _ -0.4 _ 095 _ 115 __ 37.4

Tae laidir __________11.8 _ 25.5 _ 1.0 _ 079 _ 119 __ 33.5

WolfeEire __________ 11.8 _ 23.8 _-0.7 _ 093 _ 122 __ 29.6

MrStonewall ________ 11.7 _ 26.1 _-0.8 _ 095 _ 105 __ 37.3

Dacogawa ___________ 11.7 _ 26.0 _-0.9 _ 086 _ 110 __ 42.2

DOCARCH ____________ 11.6 _ 24.8 _-1.2 _ 089 _ 115 __ 18.6

Dasa29 _____________ 11.5 _ 26.5 _-1.0 _ 110 _ 120 __ 45.0

Adam240610 _________ 11.5 _ 25.5 _ 0.0 _ 096 _ 104 __ 40.0

JPmarn ______________11.5 _ 25.5 _-0.8 _ 085 _ 125 __ 35.0

M.T. Cranium _______ 11.3 _ 24.0 _-0.5 _ 115 _ 105 __ 37.5

200motels (-2) ______11.2 _ 27.3 _ 0.4 _ 109 _ 101 __ 23.6

Pauldry _____________11.2 _ 23.3 _ 0.1 _ 111 _ 102 __ 47.6

__ NormaL _________ 11.0 _ 23.5 _ 0.0 _ 100 _ 100 __ 40.0

M.T. Cranium

The following was adjusted for PRC (69% not 66% as used earlier) after I saw data in Monthly Summary around 1100h … all scores changed by one, mostly up (except for a few at zero points for PRC).

If the annual scoring table wraps, try a lower screen magnification. 90% works for me. I will have to separate the two parts of the table next month.

Congrats to DOCARCH and waterways, JPmarn for high scores this month, and to Dacogawa for maintaining his lead in the annual contest. Scoring is quite close through the lead pack there.

Confirmed Scoring for May 2025

FORECASTER ______ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN_24h rain__TOTAL

DOCARCH _________ 14 _ 20 _ 17 _ 08 _ 06 __ 10______75

JPmarn ___________ 13 _ 13 _ 19 _ 10 _ 08 __ 08______71

waterways _________21 _ 09 _ 17 _ 08 _ 06 __ 09______70

Artane2002 __(-3) __ 24 _ 00 _ 18 _ 12 _ 07 __ 10_71-3=68

WolfeEire __________16 _ 10 _ 18 _ 07 _ 07 __ 09______67

__ Con Sensus ______17 _ 13 _ 15 _ 06 _ 06 __ 07______64

Joe Public __________20 _ 06 _ 15 _ 08 _ 09 __ 05______63

Dacogawa _________ 15 _ 08 _ 20 _ 09 _ 05 __ 05______62

Gonzo __ (-1) ______ 22 _ 17 _ 00 _ 10 _ 06 __ 08_63-1=62

Cornerstonelad _____ 17 _ 13 _ 19 _ 00 _ 06 __ 03______58

MrStonewall ________15 _ 07 _ 19 _ 06 _ 04 __ 07______58

Appledrop _________ 17 _ 17 _ 14 _ 00 _ 04 __ 05______57

Tae laidir __________ 16 _ 13 _ 01 _ 12 _ 07 __ 08______57

sunflower3 ________ 19 _ 13 _ 06 _ 05 _ 05 __ 08______56

Adam240610 _______13 _ 13 _ 11 _ 06 _ 04 __ 06______53

Esposito ___________23 _ 05 _ 08 _ 03 _ 06 __ 07______52

MrSkinner _________ 22 _ 07 _ 00 _ 13 _ 05 __ 04______51

M.T. Cranium _______11 _ 12 _ 16 _ 00 _ 04 __ 07______50

john mac __________19 _ 13 _ 08 _ 01 _ 03 __ 04______48

Dasa29 ___________ 13 _ 03 _ 19 _ 01 _ 07 __ 04______47

Kindred Spirit ______ 24 _ 03 _ 01 _ 06 _ 07 __ 06______47

__ NormaL ________ 08 _ 07 _ 11 _ 05 _ 03 __ 06______40

Pauldry ___________ 10 _ 05 _ 10 _ 01 _ 03 __ 03______32

200motels (-2) _____ 10 _ 00 _ 07 _ 02 _ 03 __ 10_32-2=30

Annual scoring update _ Jan to May 2025

…………………………………………….. Category Scoring …………………………………… Monthly totals

Rank (prev)_FORECASTER _IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN_BONUS_TOTAL _Jan_Feb_Mar_Apr_May

_01 _01 _ Dacogawa ______103_56 _81 _47 _36 _36 ___ 359___ 88_60_79_70_62

_02 _02 _ DOCARCH ______ 82 _62 _76 _43 _35 _41 ___ 339 ___ 77_61_78_48_75

2.7_ 1.8___ Con Sensus ___101 _59 _69 _39 _34 _33 ___ 335 ___ 87_53_67_64_64

_03 _03 _ Jpmarn ________ 85 _68 _51 _56 _41 _32 ___ 333 ___ 68_52_77_65_71

t04 _10 _ Artane2002 _____94 _63 _70 _44 _27 _23_320-4=316_ 65_50_66_67_68

t04 _08 _ Gonzo_________105 _67 _40 _34 _39 _32_317-1=316_78_38_68_70_62

_06 _05t_ Mr Stonewall ____93 _64 _59 _39 _29 _31 ___ 315 ___ 80_47_64_66_58

_07t_05t_ Appledrop ______94 _67 _68 _29 _28 _28 ___ 314 ___ 71_61_63_62_57

_07t_11 _ WolfeEire _______91 _62 _68 _30 _35 _28 ___ 314 ___ 72_53_69_53_67

_09 _04 _ MrSkinner _____ 106_59 _46 _46 _32 _23 ___ 312 ___ 81_66_58_56_51

_10 _15 _ waterways _____ 95 _54 _45 _39 _32 _41 ___ 306 ___ 62_50_59_65_70

_11 _05t _Kindred Spirit ___102 _48 _47 _41 _28 _38 ___304 ___ 83_55_56_63_47

_12 _13 _ Cornerstonelad __ 85 _59 _52 _28 _44 _29 ___297 ___ 48_50_64_77_58

_13 _12 _ john mac _______90 _42 _65 _41 _28 _27 ___ 293 ___ 57_62_56_70_48

13.9_12.7_ NormaL _______56 _53 _71 _48 _22 _31 ___ 281 ___ 72_48_64_57_40

_14 _18 _ Sunflower3 _____ 91 _52 _52 _44 _23 _18 ___ 280 ___ 73_45_45_61_56

_15 _17 _ Adam240610 ___ 90 _46 _51 _34 _39 _27_287-8=279 _34_61_65_66_53

_16 _19 _ M.T. Cranium ___ 81 _51 _45 _27 _37 _30 ___ 271 ___ 48_46_70_57_50

_17 _14 _ Pauldry ________95 _35 _43 _29 _32 _37_271-2=269_ 58_63_61_55_32

_18 _21 _ Tae laidir _______93 _56 _35 _29 _32 _22 ___ 267 ___ 62_49_44_55_57

_19 _20 _ Dasa29 ________85 _23 _61 _30 _32 _31 ___ 262 ___ 69_54_43_49_47

_20 _22 _ Joe Public ______62 _47 _43 _44 _44 _22_262-2=260 _31_49_42_75_63

_21 _09 _ sryanbruen (4/5)_77 _51 _47 _26 _25 _26 ___ 252 ___ 80_38_72_62_ —

_22 _16 _ Bsal (4/5)______ 74 _26 _53 _41 _24 _11 ___ 229 ___ 65_58_48_58_ —

_23 _23 _ Esposito (4/5) __ 84 _29 _40 _20 _33 _19 ___ 225 ___ 46_64_ —_63_52

_24 _24 _ 200motels (3/5) _47 _25 _11 _17 _21 _26_147-2=145 _53 _—_62_—_30

_25 _25 _ Icicle2025 (1/5) _ 20 _09 _01 _12 _07 _08 ____57 ___ 57 _—_—_—_—

_26 _26 _ JCXBXC (1/5) ___ 11 _14 _00 _05 _07 _03 _40-8=32 _ 32 _—_—_—_—

___________________________

Top scores in categories are bold type, seconds are bold italics, third are regular italic.

Any designations for Con Sensus or NormaL are independent of forecaster score designations.

Four seasons update will appear next.

M.T. Cranium

Four Seasons Spring 2025 (and Winter 2024-2025) Contest Report

12 points for top total score, 10 down to 3 for next eight in rank order, also 3 for any others >180, two points for all entering three contests, and one point for anyone entering two of three.

Scores adjusted for Feb as necessary …

FORECASTER _______ Winter Pts ____ Mar _Apr _May _ TOTAL _ Spring Pts _ TOTAL Points

Dacogawa __________ 220 __12 ____ 79 _ 70 _ 62 ___ 211 ___ 10 ______22

DOCARCH __________ 196 __ 7 ____ 78 _ 48 _ 75 ___ 201 ____ 9t______ 16

____ Con Sensus ____ 210 __10 ____ 67 _ 64 _ 64 ___ 195 ____ 5 ______ 15

Jpmarn ____________ 165 __ 2 ____ 77 _ 65 _ 71 ___ 213 ___ 12 ______ 14

Kindred Spirit _______ 206 __10 ____ 56 _ 63 _ 47 ___ 166 ____ 3 ______ 13

Appledrop __________ 204 __ 9 ____ 63 _ 62 _ 67 ___ 192 ____ 4 ______ 13

Gonzo _____________ 188 __ 5 ____ 68 _ 70 _ 62 ___ 200 ____ 7 ______ 12

Artane2002 _________ 174 __ 2 ____ 66 _ 67 _ 68 ___ 201 ____ 9t______ 12

MrSkinner __________ 202 __ 8 ____ 58 _ 56 _ 51 ___ 165 ____ 2 ______ 10

Mr Stonewall_________195 __ 6 ____ 64 _ 66 _ 58 ___ 188 ____ 3 _______ 9

Cornerstonelad ______ 173 __ 2 ____ 64 _ 77 _ 58 ___ 199 ____ 6 _______ 8

waterways __________164 __ 2 ____ 59 _ 65 _ 70 ___ 194 ____ 5 _______ 7

Pauldry _____________187 __ 4 ____ 61 _ 55 _ 32 ___ 148 ____ 2 _______ 6

WolfeEire ___________ 186 __ 3 ____ 69 _ 53 _ 67 ___ 189 ____ 3 _______ 6

Tae laidir ___________ 185 __ 3 ____ 44 _ 55 _ 57 ___ 156 ____ 2 _______ 5

Dasa29 ____________ 183 __ 3 ____ 43 _ 49 _ 47 ___ 139 ____ 2 _______ 5

Adam240610 ________154 __ 2 ____ 65 _ 66 _ 53 ___ 184 ____ 3 _______ 5

Joe Public ___________121 __ 2 ____ 42 _ 75 _ 63 ___ 180 ____ 3 _______ 5

john mac ___________ 177 __ 2 ____ 56 _ 70 _ 48 ___ 174 ____ 2 _______ 4

___ NormaL _________177 __ 2 ____ 64 _ 57 _ 40 ___ 161 ____ 2 _______ 4

Sunflower3 __________171 __ 2 ____ 45 _ 61 _ 56 ___ 162 ____ 2 _______ 4

M.T. Cranium ________ 170 __ 2 ____ 70 _ 57 _ 50 ___ 177 ____ 2 _______ 4

sryanbruen __________186 __ 3 ____ 72 _ 62 _ —- ___ 134 ____ 1 _______ 4

Bsal _______________ 179 __ 2 ____ 48 _ 58 _ —- ___ 106 ____ 1 _______ 3

Esposito ____________173 __ 2 ____ —- _ 63 _ 52 ___ 115 ____ 1 _______ 3

JCXBXC ______________83 __ 1 _____ (no entries) ___ — — ____— _______1

200motels ___________ 53 __ —- ____ 62 _ —- _30 ____ 92 ____ 1 _______1

___________________

Congrats to JPmarn with top score in spring 2025, and to Dacogawa who was a close second and combined with his winter full 12 points, is in first place ahead of DOCARCH who has had two good seasonal scores, then also Con Sensus and JPmarn in third overall.