How will US Tarrif war affect property prices?

RichardAnd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123335167#Comment_123335167

I think people took me too literally on this one…

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123335244#Comment_123335244

Yes, but it sounds like you think the city isnt as nice as it was?

suvigirl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123335167#Comment_123335167

He can't explain!

Francis McM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123333507#Comment_123333507

Last time I looked, Trump won the election in the USA by some margin.

The USA is still by far the biggest economy / biggest GDP compared with any other country in the world.

The United States Armed Forces are widely considered to have the world's biggest military, based on factors like active personnel, budget, and technological capabilities. 

Like it or not, in terms of film, technology, "culture", music etc the USA also arguably seems to have more influence than any other country in the world?

yagan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123335427#Comment_123335427

Even they don't believe that anymore. Otherwise how did maga become a thing?

Rocket_GD

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123335427#Comment_123335427

He won 49.8% of the vote to Harris’ 48.3% hardly “some margin”.

GDP is an extremely poor reflection of a countries wealth. GDP per capita has Ireland 4th and the US in 9th. So by your reasoning of using GDP, we’re far wealthier than the US per capita.

It’s more a lack of “culture” in the US as they’re an extremely new country in terms of age.

The “free world” notion is nonsensical.
He is the President of the country with the highest incarceration rate in the world though so it’s a bit hypocritical.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123335385#Comment_123335385

Popped into this thread for a look at how people are assessing the potential impact of tariffs on the local property market. Lo and behold, look at what surfaces. Have you nothing better to do than weasel around this site goading other posters?

It’s pathetic. Seriously, cop on to yourself, particularly if you have zero value to add to a thread.

-----------------------------------------------

Warned: attack the post not the poster

Padre_Pio

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123335244#Comment_123335244

Nah, just a load of people ready to jump down your throat no matter what reply you gave.

GalwayGaillimh

I think this black swan event with tariffs will have it's work cut out to cool the insatiable demand in the market especially with 2 more rate cuts guaranteed..

Rocket_GD

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123336662#Comment_123336662

You may need to re-read my post.

I'm not claiming anything like that, I'm disproving the other poster's belief that the US and Trump are this all powerful force. He is certainly not the "leader of the free world".

tigger123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123336662#Comment_123336662

America being described as the free world is Cold War terminology.

By calling the US President the leader of the free world, you were by definition describing the USSR as not free.

Freedom Fries for everyone!

blackbox

Pharma and other big multinationals are not going to make any rash decisions based on the latest tariffs.

There is no certainty so they will wait to see what happens. It is quite conceivable that the tariffs will be dropped next month so they are not about to jump.

Padre_Pio

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123336832#Comment_123336832

The thought occurred to me that tariffs could be so bad for the US economy that reshoring manufacturing might not be worth it.

Why spend time and effort making products domestically when the population is less able to afford them and reciprocal tariffs make it impossible to export?

greenfield21

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123336832#Comment_123336832

They won't, because Trump hasn't enacted any tariffs on pharma yet. Big tech not really impacted either, other than the potential secondary impacts of slowing growth.

The pharma tariff situation is weird after all the talk, that was the lowest of low fruit for Trump to reduce the deficit but may not even play it. Is it that they are now more hopeful of the big beautiful bill including changes to the tax code ( which will never get through Congress without all the carve outs to benefit the big MNCs.) Very weird, probable explanation is all the lobbying has paid off.

landofthetree

Property Developers will be laying off workers by June/July. Projects will be postponed indefinitely. Demand will be falling off a cliff. There is no going back now. Once a trade war starts it's take decades to reverse.

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123336952#Comment_123336952

"Source: It came to me in a dream"

landofthetree

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123328082#Comment_123328082

Many Democrats are pro tariffs these days. Biden kept most of Trump's tariffs from his first term. The left of the Democratic party is very pro tariffs. At best they will make modifications but we aren't going back to 2024 level tariffs for decades.

https://x.com/SenSanders/status/1908221908954263821

landofthetree

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123336961#Comment_123336961

Let's see what its like on July 1st.

Red Silurian

The way I see it happening

• Share prices across the board will fall
• Multinationals will lay off staff to try and save their share prices
• The lay off of staff will cause demand for property to drop and therefore a drop in property prices
• Irish banks will need another bailout
• Our current government will tax us more and cut public services to save the banks
• Banks will increase prices of current accounts and get nice renovations to their branches using our money

Source: 2008-2009

greenfield21

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123336996#Comment_123336996

We need to see a greater impact on pharma and tech before we see demand falling of a cliff. You also seem to be forgetting when the Government see pricing falling, they will do whatever they can to prop it up.

landofthetree

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123337017#Comment_123337017

They did a great job propping up prices in 2008.

Padre_Pio

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123337017#Comment_123337017

Remember there were upwards of 6000 layoffs last year in the tech sector.

Prices still increased.

Fr Tod Umptious

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123337008#Comment_123337008

Why will the banks need a bailout?

It's not remotely like the last crash, they don't have mountains of potentially bad loans on their books.

The opposite actually, because of such strict lending regulations post the last crash their loan books are in a totally different place.

Red Silurian

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123337031#Comment_123337031

They have a mountain of mortgages taken out by people who work for MNCs who will be laid off and will default on their mortgages causing a banking crisis

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123337063#Comment_123337063

That is not going to happen. Nowhere near it. Mass layoffs are not on horizon at all

Red Silurian

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123337072#Comment_123337072

We will wait and see

Ray Palmer

Pharma is an interesting one. Currently I get a drug free from the HSE but if I was to pay for it would be 300euro a month. In the USA is cost $1500 a month and insurance and medicare do not pay for it. A friend in the USA has the same issues I have and he can't afford it because he currently pay $1200 for himself on health insurance a month and the same again for his wife. She has her own health issues and pays $600 in medicine after subside from the insurance. He could not afford a 10% increase on medicine and whatever insurance would go up if they added a tariff to medicine. He says that the USA government just want him to work till he dies rather than keep him healthy for a long time.

Ireland produces near 100% or certain drugs so there is no where else to get them and the patents are here too. The lead time to build suitable building and get staff is longer than his term in office. It was one of Trumps last term policies that moved more production out of the USA. If he goes after it via tax he has to get parties to agree but there is no way to get the drugs supply moved to the USA without health insurance going up and it is really high already. Not saying he could not cause damage but he has to be careful as this is not all luxury stuff like Viagra and Botox

IT is a weird one too as many of the multinationals here are not providing IT services to the USA but within Ireland and the EU. Even the likes of Google, Amazon etc… are really providing a global market not the USA so how does he bring a charge against that.

deirdremf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123336851#Comment_123336851

The point was made elsewhere that the profitable drugs are the ones under patent, and these tend not to have multiple producers. They also tend to be very expensive, and are imported into the US, in many cases from Ireland, because the only plant set up to produce them is here; for tax reduction purposes, obviously.

Wealthy people in the US use these drugs, and would not be in favour of them becoming more expensive - ie they would not want tariffs jacking up the price and thus their insurance premiums; and there is no current alternative to many of them. Trump himself may well be taking a cocktail of such drugs, as will many of his cronies, and so forth extended all across the USA. So pharma will be among the last sector to be hit, as it keeps Trump and his like in the land of the living - or so the argument goes.

o1s1n

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123337063#Comment_123337063

People tend not to immediately default on their mortgages the moment they're laid off.

If someone is laid off from a US MNC, they're probably due a redundancy (some of which can be very large). They can keep their mortgage going with that until they find a new job. There's also a high probability they have a partner who's not working in a US company who can keep them ticking over.

Worst comes to worst, they could even change their mortgage to interest only for a period. They could potentially rent a room in their house to cover it.

Loads and loads of options before that would ever happen.

Red Silurian

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123337221#Comment_123337221

Yeah but within about a year or 2 that redundancy money will be gone. The amount of money that person will spend during that time will fall as well which means the knock-on effect of mor jobs being lost and then you're into a spiral.

FF and FG will probably increase costs and cut services as well which will make the spiral worse